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Weekly Report 30th September to 4th October 2019.

Upcoming Week Nifty Movement:

It was a negative start for the October series. The Nifty 50, after opening moderately lower, traded in the range of previous day's candle throughout the session and closed half a percent lower on September 27.

Spinning top is often regarded as a neutral pattern that suggests indecisiveness in the market. It can be formed in an uptrend as well as in a downtrend.

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Shield ResearchThe index managed to hold the 11,500 levels, forming a bearish candle on the daily charts while it rallied 2.1 percent for the week, seeing the Spinning Top kind of formation on the weekly scale.

The pattern formation and the behaviour of the market in the last few trading sessions after September 20-23 rally indicated that consolidation is likely in coming days before a fresh breakout. India VIX fell by 1.38 percent to 16.11 levels.

The Nifty 50 opened lower at 11,556.35 and traded in a range of about 100 points throughout the session. The index hit an intraday high of 11,593.60 and low of 11,499.75, before closing 58.80 points lower at 11,512.40.

Nifty 50 registered a small bearish candle on daily charts whereas a Spinning Top kind of indecisive formation is witnessed on Weekly charts after a strong gap up opening for the week.

, This price action is suggesting that Nifty for time being is on consolidation mode and in need of a fresh breakout to pick up the upward momentum once again. Such a breakout shall occur once it manages a strong close above 11695 levels.

On the downsides it looks critical for Nifty to sustain above the gap zone of 11,416–11,382 on the weekly charts. As long as this support is respected traders can retain positive stance which should eventually pave the way for a breakout above 11,695.

Contrary to this a close below 11,382 shall accentuate selling pressure which should ideally drag down the indices towards its 200-day moving average (11,247), adding as twin momentum oscillators are on sell mode he advised traders to refrain from creating fresh longs unless Nifty registers a breakout above 11,695 levels.

Options data suggests the Nifty could trade in a broader range of 11,300 to 12,000 levels in coming sessions.

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Shield ResearchThe initial public offer (IPO) of state-owned Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) will open for subscription on Monday, September 30.

The offer is a part of the government's divestment programme for the current financial year 2019-20 and shares will be offered to employees and retail investors at a discount to the final price.

NIFTY WEEKLY INDEX LEVELS:Nifty CMP Pivot

PointSupport1 Support2 Support3 Resistance

1Resistance2 Resistance3

11512.40 11535.30 11476.90 11441.40 11347.60 11570.80 11629.10 11723.00

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Upcoming Week Bank Nifty Movement:

Bank Nifty consolidated for the most part of the day as it traded in the range between 29,700 to 30,100 levels. The index closed 0.42 percent lower at 29,876.65 and formed a small-bodied candle on the daily scale while Long-legged Doji on a weekly scale.

It is finding multiple supports near 29,500 levels while hurdles are intact at higher zones. Now it has to continue to hold above 29,750 to extend its gains towards 30,500 then 30,750 levels while on the downside support is seen at 29,400 then 29,250 levels.

The September series started with lighter Nifty positions; wherein some shorts were rolled from the August series. The benchmark indices continued their selling streak of the last three series and started correcting from initial days of the September series.

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Shield ResearchThe Nifty remained under pressure in major part of the September series and added some short positions.

However, the index managed to hold above August’s low of 10,637 and rallied sharply in the last five trading sessions of the September series. The Nifty rallied by more than 1,000 points from its lows and eventually concluded the September series with a gain of 5.69 percent over its August expiry close.

The rollover in the Nifty stood at 73.08 percent, slightly below its quarterly average of 74.28 percent. However, the open interest decreased by 14.11 percent on expiry-to-expiry basis, which indicates that most of the positions formed in September didn't get rolled to the October series.

FIIs continued their streak in cash market segment and cumulatively sold equities worth Rs 4,778 crore in the September series. On the other hand, DIIs remained net buyers in equities to the tune of Rs 13,030 crore.

At current juncture, 11,380 and 11,200 are immediate support levels for the Nifty, while resistance can be seen in the 11,850-11,900 zones.

Markets will remain on the edge taking cues from various announcements from the finance minister, RBI monetary policy and quarterly result session.

Since overall positions are light in the Nifty, fresh build-up in coming few days will decide the trend for the October series.

However, the Nifty’s overall price structure is quite positive and now sentiment turned out to be a buy on declines for coming few days. Thus, any dip towards 11,380-11,300 shall be used as a buying opportunity.

The banking index started the September series with some short positions and saw a corrective move in the first fortnight of September.

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Shield ResearchThe Bank Nifty made a triple bottom pattern on the daily chart and rallied sharply in the last five trading sessions. The banking index outperformed the benchmark indices and rallied by 10.17 percent in the September series over its August expiry's close.

In the month gone by, we witnessed mixed positions getting formed in the Bank Nifty. But, the open interest has decreased by 39.75 percent on expiry-to-expiry basis and as a result, open interest in the Bank Nifty reached lowest level in eight years.

BANK NIFTY WEEKLY INDEX LEVELS:Bank Nifty CMP Pivot

PointSupport1 Support2 Support3 Resistance

1Resistance2 Resistance3

29876.65 29900.20 29687.80 29498.90 29097.60 30089.10 30301.50 30702.80

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Shield ResearchFrom the September series, only 57.62 percent positions in the Bank Nifty got rolled to October series, which is lower than its quarterly average of 74.62 percent. The rollover data indicates that the Bank Nifty is too light on positions and fresh positions at low base shall build the foundation for the next directional move.

On the stocks front, we witnessed good amount of long positions getting rolled to the October series in counters like BPCL, Container Corporation, Amara Raja Batteries, Nestle India, HPCL, etc.

The stocks which added huge shorts in the September series and the same got rolled to the coming month are Zee Entertainment, Canara Bank, Yes Bank, Glenmark Pharma, and TCS etc.

The initial public offer (IPO) of state-owned Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) will open for subscription on Monday, September 30.

The offer is a part of the government's divestment programme for the current financial year 2019-20 and shares will be offered to employees and retail investors at a discount to the final price.

The issue will close on October 3.

The book running lead managers to the issue are IDBI Capital Markets & Securities, SBI Capital Markets and YES Securities (India).

IRCTC is a central public sector enterprise (CPSEs) wholly-owned by the Government of India and under the administrative control of the Ministry of Railways.

It is the only entity authorised by Indian Railways to provide catering services to railways, online railway tickets and packaged drinking water at railway stations and trains around the country.

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Shield ResearchTechnical Movement:

Hindalco Limited: -

Hindalco Limited: - Trend of the stock is bearish but sentiments are buying. It took support its previous week & bounce back. Next week if it sustains above 185 one can go for buying with stop loss at 173 for the targets of 196-208 Trend of the stock is up in weekly chart and strategy advised is buy on dips.

Technical Movement:

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Shield Research Coal India Limited:-

Coal India Limited: - Trend of the stock is bearish but sentiments are buying. It took support its previous week & bounce back. Next week if it sustains above 195 one can go for buying with stop loss at 184 for the targets of 205-215 Trend of the stock is up in weekly chart and strategy advised is buy on dips.

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Previous ArchivesLAST WEEK RECO

STOCKSRECO PRICE TGT FOLLOW UP REMARK

Adani Enterprises Limited.

145 152-162, SL 135 Done First Target Made High 155.40, Closed at 149.45

Gail India Limited. 130 139-146, SL 119 Done First Target Made High 148.75, Closed at 134.15

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