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Weekly Report_xxiv_june 13-17, 2011

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ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk) Outlook for Week XXIV_June 13 to 17_TD 114-118 1 of 2  WEEKLY MARKET STATS UPDATE: THIS WEEK'S BACKDROP: IN FOCUS: Global “reco-worries” raises risk aversion Debts and deficits problems in Greece and the US Multi-week declines in equity prices, major indexes Interest rates Commodity prices fall Corporate goings-on EAR the halfway mark of the year, global equity markets are reeling from a growing body of evidence that the post-recession clearing once within sight has been clouded. N Major stock market indexes extended weekly declines, narrowing  year-t o-dat e gains , with fears of a “doub le-di p” recess ion once more rearing its ugly head. This came as poor economic numbers from the US in the prior week continued to be digested in the absence of fresh news and data. This heigh tenin g concern has incre ased invest ors' aversion to ri sky assets, wi th the sl ower GDP growth seen as reflec ting on corpora te bottom-line s moving forward . For much of the year-to-date, analysts forecast, which turned cautiously optimistic at the end of last year, have been missed. Using the volat ility of averag e mont hly return s over the TTM, measured by standard deviation to gauge ri sk, Phil ippi ne stocks top the li st of  selected indexes comparing the global majors and our pee rs in the Asean reg ion. The inc reased uncert ainty presente d by this measure may have cont ri buted to the market 's inabil it y to hold advances, particularly in light of the higher return, lesser risk proposition by neighboring Jakarta Exchange. Last week's action at the local bourse pulled the averages lo wer. Average volume turnover narrowed by -1.2 percent to a daily pace of 2,834 billion. Value-wise, the squeeze was at a tad lighter, slowing -0.97 percent to php4.485 billion, a level missed in the last eight (8) sessions, e ven if we include block sa le values. Investors have obviously began to tak e to the sidelines ahead of important data releases – GDP in week 22 and inflation last week. Heading into week 24, the market DISCLAI MER: THE MATERIAL CON TAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCE D OR COPIE D OR MADE AVAILA BLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECU RITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON T HE CREDIT- WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED. PHILIPPINE MARKET STATS INDEX LAST WEEK% YTD% PSEI 4,219.58 -1.82 0.44 ALL 2,979.87 -1.35 -0.88 FIN 946.61 -1.63 -1.55 IND 7,168.87 -0.38 -0.72 HDG 3,468.57 -1.98 2.36 PRO 1,500.50 -2.33 -5.18 SVC 1,505.12 -2.27 -5.36 M&O 18,315.38 -2.70 31.32 WORLD MARKETS INDEX LAST WEEK% YTD% DOW 11,951.90 -1.64 3.23 S&P 1,270.98 -2.24 1.06 NASDAQ 2,643.73 -3.26 -0.34 FTSE 100 5,765.80 -1.52 -2.27 DAX 7,069.90 -0.55 2.25 CAC 40 3,805.09 -2.20 0.01 MSCI APEX 50 874.02 -3.16 0.91 TOPIX 817.38 0.10 -9.06 NIKKEI 225 9,514.44 0.23 -6.98 HANGSENG 22,420.40 -2.31 -2.67 SHANGHAI 2,705.14 -0.84 -3.67 TAIEX 8,837.82 -2.30 -1.50 KOSPI 2,046.67 -3.16 -0.21 S&P/ASX 200 4,562.10 -0.46 -3.86 ALL ORDINARIES 4,634.90 -0.68 -4.37 NZ50 3,490.63 -0.69 5.49 SET 1,020.37 -3.54 -1.20 JCI 3,787.65 -1.47 2.27 BSESN 18,268.50 -0.59 -10.92 Straits Times 3,078.35 -2.14 -3.50 KLCI 1,556.19 -0.23 2.45 HO CHI MINH 445.00 0.36 -8.18 CATEGORY MEASURE VALUE PREVIOUS WEEK CHANGE% END- DEC2010 CHANGE% NET VOLUME 2,834,409,774 2,869,558,588 - 1.22% 1,637,867,112 73.05% NET VALUE 4,484,687,751.92 4,528,503,861. 29 - 0. 97% 4, 603,800,556.27 -2.59% ISSUES TRADED 172 173 -0.58% N/A N/A TRADES 14,955 15,012 - 0.38% N/A N/A FOREIGN (B UY) 2, 178, 934, 273.73 2, 200, 096,898. 49 -0.96 % 1,972, 980, 083.85 10.44% FOREIGN (SELL) 2,048,279,430.89 2, 06 3,140,628. 27 - 0. 72% 1, 752,691, 290.38 16.86% FO REIGN (NET) 130,654,842.84 136,95 6,270. 22 -4.60% 220,288, 793. 48 -40.69% INDICATORS AD Line -763.00 - 677.00 12.70% -508.00 50.20% %K STO(14,3) 34.87 82.46 -57.71% 95.12 -63.34% %D (STO(14,3,3) 39.84 71.56 -44.33% 72.13 -44.77% RSI(14) 45.43 54.45 -16.56% 56.61 -19.75% EMA(10) 4,251.82 4,280.36 -0.67% 4,149.40 2.47% EMA(50) 4,214.95 4,209.79 0.12% 4,119.42 2.32% EMA(150) 4,062.37 4,050.23 0.30% 3,839.39 5.81% ACTIVITY [YTD DAILY AVERAGES] - 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 PHL IND FRA US GER LDN SIN MAL AVG RET STDEV
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Page 1: Weekly Report_xxiv_june 13-17, 2011

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ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATIONGF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)

Outlook for Week XXIV_June 13 to 17_TD 114-118

2 of 2

will again be on edge until Thursday's Monetary Board meeting. The slower-than-projected Q1 GDP growth makes ituntenable for the BSP to adjust the rates higher at this time. However, with inflation already tipping the high-end of the

full-year target, a pre-emptive move cannot be ruled out. The overnight rates currently stand at 4.5 percent and 6.5percent, borrowing and lending, respectively.

On the valuation-side, based on the above selection of indexes, Philippine equities are relatively expensive relativeto its trailing twelve month earnings. Singapore, whichreturns substantially lower returns at significantly lowerrisk than the PSEI, is the cheapest in this lot with a PE of slightly above 10x TTM earnings.

With investors giving more weight to avoiding risk, asevidenced by the decrease in fixed-income yields, localstocks may have to drop a bit more to become attractivepropositions to institutional clients. In this context, localshares must return at least 4.4 percent to bring it to parwith Malaysia in terms of the risk-reward trade-off. KualaLumpur stocks provide investors with the most return per

unit of risk, statistically speaking. Cetris paribus, withindex resistance at 4,250, the 4.4 percent return will result

from a pick-up at the 4,070-line. Alternatively, with immediate support at 4,170, the investors should find sufficientthrusts from the fundamentals side to propel the index to 4,350 to satisfy the return requirement.

The ADL's drop to its lowest level in the last two yearsmakes the first supposition, a drop past the 4,170 a morelikely occurrence. The declines in five of the last sixsessions, where losers romped over gainers by -101 points,pulled the measure to a year-to-date value of -763, -12.7percent lower than the previous week's close. Indexadvances unsupported by a broad support from thenumber of issues rising or a sustained positive breadth willbe short-lived and will eventually lead to quick-profittaking.

The PSEi is currrently trading in a narrow 40-point range between the 10pdEMA and 50pdEMA. The underlyingmeasures of momentum and direction are generally pointing to a neutral sideways action with a slight negative bias. Themedium-term line has lost the steepness in its slope and has turned almost flat, even as the longer-term (150pdEMA) linesustains an optimistic direction moving forward. The debates on whether the “glitches” we are encountering at themoment are of a temporary or a permanent nature will keep the markets volatile, as investors bet on every direction,reacting to short-term stories. As has been mentioned on top, the index' immediate range is between 4,170 and 4,250.We are closely watching the downside, with a breach of the lower end raising the possibility of a retracement to the4,070-4,100 range.

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NOCIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECU RITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOTREPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANYINFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.

- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00

SIN

FRA

GER

US

LDN

PHL

MAL

IND

-1400

-1200

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-800

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200

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