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8/6/2019 Weekly Report_xxiv_june 13-17, 2011
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8/6/2019 Weekly Report_xxiv_june 13-17, 2011
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/weekly-reportxxivjune-13-17-2011 2/2
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATIONGF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
Outlook for Week XXIV_June 13 to 17_TD 114-118
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will again be on edge until Thursday's Monetary Board meeting. The slower-than-projected Q1 GDP growth makes ituntenable for the BSP to adjust the rates higher at this time. However, with inflation already tipping the high-end of the
full-year target, a pre-emptive move cannot be ruled out. The overnight rates currently stand at 4.5 percent and 6.5percent, borrowing and lending, respectively.
On the valuation-side, based on the above selection of indexes, Philippine equities are relatively expensive relativeto its trailing twelve month earnings. Singapore, whichreturns substantially lower returns at significantly lowerrisk than the PSEI, is the cheapest in this lot with a PE of slightly above 10x TTM earnings.
With investors giving more weight to avoiding risk, asevidenced by the decrease in fixed-income yields, localstocks may have to drop a bit more to become attractivepropositions to institutional clients. In this context, localshares must return at least 4.4 percent to bring it to parwith Malaysia in terms of the risk-reward trade-off. KualaLumpur stocks provide investors with the most return per
unit of risk, statistically speaking. Cetris paribus, withindex resistance at 4,250, the 4.4 percent return will result
from a pick-up at the 4,070-line. Alternatively, with immediate support at 4,170, the investors should find sufficientthrusts from the fundamentals side to propel the index to 4,350 to satisfy the return requirement.
The ADL's drop to its lowest level in the last two yearsmakes the first supposition, a drop past the 4,170 a morelikely occurrence. The declines in five of the last sixsessions, where losers romped over gainers by -101 points,pulled the measure to a year-to-date value of -763, -12.7percent lower than the previous week's close. Indexadvances unsupported by a broad support from thenumber of issues rising or a sustained positive breadth willbe short-lived and will eventually lead to quick-profittaking.
The PSEi is currrently trading in a narrow 40-point range between the 10pdEMA and 50pdEMA. The underlyingmeasures of momentum and direction are generally pointing to a neutral sideways action with a slight negative bias. Themedium-term line has lost the steepness in its slope and has turned almost flat, even as the longer-term (150pdEMA) linesustains an optimistic direction moving forward. The debates on whether the “glitches” we are encountering at themoment are of a temporary or a permanent nature will keep the markets volatile, as investors bet on every direction,reacting to short-term stories. As has been mentioned on top, the index' immediate range is between 4,170 and 4,250.We are closely watching the downside, with a breach of the lower end raising the possibility of a retracement to the4,070-4,100 range.
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NOCIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECU RITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOTREPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANYINFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00
SIN
FRA
GER
US
LDN
PHL
MAL
IND
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
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