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T+L ConferenceDenver, Colorado

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Room #212

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Education 2015: Given Technology, Demographic,

Economic, and Social Trends, What May Be Our Worlds of US

Education in 2015?

Gigi JohnsonLecturer, UCLA Anderson

Executive Director, Maremel Institute

October 20092

What will the US education and related technology expectations and platforms look like in 2015?

How do we talk about this -- as organizations and decision-makers – in structures focused on annual funding-based planning cycles? Gathering data, collaboration, design,

creation? Or just annual resource allocations?

Questions at Hand

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Shifts or discontinuous jolts? Who and what will we teach? Demographics,

job markets, skills, challenges as citizens? How we decide? How can districts plan ahead

in this economically challenged environment? How can we encourage changes from

technology that can improve learning processes?

How do you make changes NOW to build capacities?

BIG Questions for 2015

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What will the world outside the district be like in 2015? “STEP” Analysis

Society Technology Economic Politics/Policy

Roundtable Discussion #1

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Society – demographics, attitudes, expectations (friction)

Technology – interfaces, storage, hardware, software, services (friction)

Economics – economic cycles, where the money comes from (friction)

Politics – legislation, election cycles, board and local politics and voices (jolts)

“STEP” Analysis

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Society: Who We Teach?

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US: Mostly Just More

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But Depends on Your State

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Leading to More College

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Mythical More Funds Per Student?

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Increases in High Tech Jobs

Source: BLS, Daniel Hecker, Monthly labor Review, July 200512

Job Growth: Unskilled + Symbolic Analysts

Source: BLS 200213

‘06-’16: US Job Additions

Ready for On the Job Training?

Source: BLS ’07; thousands, US14

Top 2016 Growth Spin: BLS

Industry Growth – BLS ‘07 update +000Jobs % IncrManagement, Scientific, & Technical Consulting 718 77.9

Employment Services 692 18.9

General medical and hospital 691 13.9

Elementary/Secondary Schools 638 7.6

Local Government 612 10.9

Physician's Offices 534 24.8

Limited-Service Dining 529 13.2

Colleges & Universities 499 14.5

Computer Systems 489 38.3

Home Health Care 481 55.4

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Technology: Changing Rules

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Expectations

Funds

Content Time

Tech-Driven New “Competition”

Lifelong learning: Transitioning norm Education everywhere: Not just private

schools but open university courses, online K-12, blended learning-- geographic limits dropping

“Co-opetition” with 8-16 hours/week of teen gaming time, virtual worlds, social networking, texting, and upcoming mobile Internet surge Different modes of thinking/learning/knowing

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Tech-Released “Filters”

Data deluge for students – surge in plagiarism in colleges – few deals to learn well

Open classroom – classroom walls and content no longer a limit

Question of need for memorization in a world of search and instant knowledge

“Search” = “Truth”?18

Limits: No Longer Boundaries

Display format/surface/sensory structure Assumes paper then single screen at front of room…to laptop….to mobile?

Interface from interface and complexity of device: Need easy UIs for diverse teacher and student environments Open source Learning Platforms now matter of course Permanent need for ongoing training – not budgeted!!

Storage and media format limits Servers onsite have turned to annual per student fee or school license

deliveries with high (?) switching costs – and limited decision frameworks

Costs of creation (historically assumed high, impacting both traditional media and schools’ content creation vs. acquisition)

Historical limits play into business contract assumptions/formats: Textbook: approval cycles, credibility from advisory boards, state approval

processes – but what about new technology and online? Web Video: 100mb You Tube initial storage/transmission limits, now

complete delivery online

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One Framework: Gartner’s Hype Cycle of Adoption1. "Technology Trigger” Breakthrough or other

event Generates significant

press and interest2. "Peak of Inflated

Expectations“ Frenzy of publicity Over-enthusiasm &

unrealistic expectations3. "Trough of

Disillusionment” Fail to meet expectations Press abandons topic

4. "Slope of Enlightenment“

Businesses experimenting Press stops covering5. "Plateau of

Productivity“ 2nd & 3rd version tech/stable Benefits accepted &

demonstrated Height: niche or broad

www.gartner.com20

2009 Hype Cycles – Indications for 2015?

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New Limit Pressures

Storage Cloud Services;

Software as Service and new path dependencies

Battery/power Compression (continuing) Chip speed/size –

Moore’s Law Heat (heat?)/energy use Tools for inexpensive

creation

Source: Intel.com1965: prediction that the number of transistors on a chip will double about every two years

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Diffusion of Innovation (Rogers)

Source: Rogers, 1962/1983

US Broadband

US Mobile

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US Below Social Surge…

Source: Universal McCann NextThingNow 4/0824

Empowering Education by…..?

Web 2.5 Issues/Opportunities NSF 2008 Cyberlearning Study

Issues/Opportunities (a) Participatory Web Open Education Software tools on broad scale Contextual Web/Semantic Web Mass shifting to Niche Ubiquitous Computing – everywhere, always

Self-Actualization Creativity unleashed – 10% of the general public vs

40% of younger audiences Marginalized Connectivity

Gathering of the marginalized – pro-ani, pro-mia, gang recruiting

25Source: “Fostering Learning in the Networked World: The Cyberlearning Opportunity and Challenge,” NSF, June 2008

BRIC: Next Billion Global Online Users

Source: Universal McCann Wave4 7/09 26

Data Diaspora: Everywhere

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Mobile Internet Doubling

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Facebook/YouTube: Gaining Global Time/Influence

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Connection + Presence = ?

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Not Just iPhone: Data Everywhere

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- More outside “free” resources

- Less live repetition – record, timeshift to pre-class prep.

Flip lecture and class time – increasing trend

+? Online and blended learning

Changing competencies, expectations, time

+? Per seat outsourcing - Open source: Linux, Moodle - Declining costs: Storage,

bandwidth, gear

-? Online support - Textbooks vs. library

databases, chapters, and online

+/- ?Replacement cycles of hardware and software Maintenance and sinking

funds +/-? Automating

individualization Quizzes and tests Customization/

personalization ?? Friction to change ?? Time and project

management

Economics and Politics: Paying for NCLB and PressuresHigher cost per seat of expenses -- or lower?

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Next 18 Months’ Big Shift Drivers

Mobile -- instant everywhere Google/Grok -- nature of school-driven

knowledge Digital records -- Rights and opportunities Plagiarism – lack of structural PD and

education in Digital media literacy Software semi-annual purchases to

Software-as-a-Service (locked-in annual spending dent)

Open source textbooks

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Cross-Influence: Society & Technology New permanent void: Lifelong Technology Learning and

Capability Growth Professional Development – learning how to learn about

technology long-term – communities of practice Parent ed – big hole with no one else filling it Digital literacy – kids, parents, and teachers

Social Equity Issues -- School/home barriers Digital divide + age-related issues Temporary question? Of access at home? At school? BIG

unfunded social gap Symbolic analyst = differentiated, higher pay jobs

Privacy/legal issues Workforce needs

Training & skills development – long-term skills, not just college prep

Skill planning – not just getting out of school

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Politics/Economics: Friction NCLB, New Name, Same Game? Cost to deliver – increasing or decreasing? Tech Spending and District Technology Plan Impact of continuing “Global Economic

Slowdown,” “The New Normal,” Deficit Spending, political friction

Increasing movements toward transparency Pressure from home to add or not add

technology Pressure from teachers’ unions

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Roundtable Question #3

What are your biggest pressures from long-term economics and political factors?

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Roundtable Question #4a How do you make technology decisions as a

district? CIO recommends? Driven by teachers’ and community

collaboration? Driven by teaching goals of long-term

Technology Plan? How evaluated for effectiveness? How designed for effectiveness? Pushed by brands? Lockin? Open Source

options?

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Roundtable Question #4b What are your districts’ politics of

technological decision-making? Who are the experts (official & unofficial)? Who influences decisions? Who makes them? Who isn’t involved who should be? Who frames the questions and invites

action? From whom do you gain buy-off by building

them into the decision process?38

Roundtable Question #4c

How do you look at District Competencies?

Do you look at resources to build long-term?

Do you look at technology expertise to build long-term?

What do you listen to? Who do you listen to?

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Roundtable Question #5

Whose “knowledge” do you build and celebrate? Do you share and build on what teachers and students are creating?

Do you use collaboration tools? Do you record great processes and

allow teachers to grow new abilities (not scheduled PD)?

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Design Tools to Steer Clearer Gap analysis -- competencies and resources to

match probable needs in 3-5 years Core competencies -- Intentionally grown? Hired?

Outsourced? Collaborated? Technology plan changes -- use as collaboration

tool with real benchmarks and tied to curriculum needs of 3-5 years out (not catching up with this year) – and updated/measured annually by a broad advisory group to continue buy-in and ideas

Creativity/collaboration/conversations Design a desired future, not just a response to

201041

Take-Home Questions

Is technology about creating knowledge and competencies that match the organizational needs long-term?

Are choices about “buying” the right technologies right now or using these affordances to teach better, faster, smarter…and longer?

What knowledge and expertise are your district sharing and building toward?

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Evaluation Questions

Text to: 36263Key Word: Enter your session code here

Did you find this session informative?   a)  Extremely (100a)       b)Somewhat (100b)     c) Waste of Time (100c)

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Text to: 36263Key Word: Enter your session code here

Did you leave with a better understanding of the content?

a) Yes (101a)   b)Somewhat (101b)     c) No (101c)     

Evaluation Questions

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Text to: 36263Key Word: Enter your session code here

How would you rate the presenter? Rank 1 – 5 (1 being lowest and 5 being

highest)  1 (102a)        2 (102b)3 (102c)4 (102d)5 (102 e)          

Last Question

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http://www.maremel.comGigi Johnsongigi@maremel.com

Speaker Contact Info

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