Welcome to the anthropocene: geology of humanity (adapted for web 6 Dec 2012)

2012 © Owen Gaffney 2012 © Owen Gaffney

WELCOME TO THE ANTHROPOCENE !e geology of humanity ICT for Life Sciences Forum MELBOURNE, 6 DECEMBER 2012 OWEN GAFFNEY

Director of Communications International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme

Image: Globaia

Adapted for the web 7 December 2012


•  Earth is moving out of its current geological epoch, the Holocene

•  Humanity is largely responsible for this exit •  Humanity has become a global geological

force – since the 1950s •  Adapt our worldviews accordingly

The Anthropocene: conceptual and historical perspectives. Phil Trans A Steffen et al 2011

ANTHROPOCENE

Image: NASA, released 5 Dec 2012


Insert data visualization from Anthropocene.info Welcome to the Anthropocene http://vimeo.com/39048998

Credit: Globaia/IGBP


www.anthropocene.info The world’s first website dedicated to the concept of the Anthropocene

Credit: Globaia/IGBP/CSIRO/Stockholm Resilience Centre


www.anthropocene.info

Credit: Globaia/IGBP/CSIRO/Stockholm Resilience Centre

2012 © Owen Gaffney

The Great Acceleration


Population

US Bureau of the Census (2000) Interna5onal database IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Total real GDP

Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Foreign direct investment

World Bank (2002) data and sta5s5cs IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Damming of rivers

World Commission on Dams (2000) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Water use

Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water Resources IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Fertiliser consumption

Interna5onal Fer5lizer Industry Associa5on (2002) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Urban population

The State of the World’s Ci5es (2001) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Paper consumption

Pulp and paper interna5onal (1993) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Motor vehicles

Global environmental outlook (2000) IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Telephones

Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-‐95 World Bank IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


International tourism

World Tourism Organiza5on (2001) Tourism industry trends IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Fisheries exploitation

Percentage of global fisheries either fully exploited, overfished or collapsed. Source: FAOSTAT (2002) Statistical databases

IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Shrimp farm production

IAnnual shrimp production as a proxy for coastal zone alteration. Sources: WRI (2003) A guide to world resources, 2002-2004



Domesticated land

Amount of land converted to pasture and cropland. Source: Klein Goldewijk and Battjes (1997) National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). Bilthoven, Netherlands



Planetary response



Atmospheric CO2 concentration

Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-‐4128 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Atmospheric N2O concentration

Machida et al Geophys Res Le\ 22:2921-‐2925 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Atmospheric CH4 concentration

Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-‐2222 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Northern hemisphere average surface temperature

Mann et al Geophys Res Le\ 26(6): 759-‐762 IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Ozone depletion

percentage total column ozone loss over Antarctica, using the average annual total column ozone, 330, as a base. Image: J.D. Shanklin, British Antarctic Survey



Tropical rainforest and woodland loss

Loss of tropical rainforest and woodland, as estimated for tropical Africa, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. Sources: Richards (1990) In: The Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge

University Press IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Natural climatic disasters

Decadal frequency of great floods (one-in-100-year events) after 1860 for basins larger than 200 000 km2 with observations that span at least 30 years. Source: Milly et al. (2002) Nature 415:514-517 IGBP synthesis:

Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Coastal zone nitrogen flux

Model-calculated partitioning of the human-induced nitrogen perturbation fluxes in the global coastal margin for the period since 1850. Source: Mackenzie et al. (2002) Chem. Geology 190:13-32



Biodiversity loss

Mathematically calculated rate of extinction. Source: Wilson (1992) The diversity of life, the Penguin Press. IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004


Great acceleration



Great Acceleration



“Our foot is stuck on the ACCELERATOR and we are heading towards an ABYSS.”

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-‐Moon, 2009

2012 © Owen Gaffney 2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: Adam Nieman

Water Atmosphere

This is our life support system

2012 © Owen Gaffney 2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: Tomas Oneborg / SvD / SCANPIX

Does Earth have a pulse?


Adapted by IGBP from: Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008. Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.

Modern humans appear in Africa

Carbon dioxide

Temperature

Methane


Adapted by IGBP from: Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008. Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.

Beyond natural boundaries


World Bank Report, November 2012


2011-2012 Fossil and Cement Emissions •  Projection for, 58% over 1990

•  Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)

•  Source: Peters et al. 2012a; Le Quéré et al. 2012; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2012


2012 Global Carbon Budget

Peters GP, Global Carbon Project 2012, Nature Climate Change

Foss

il-fu

el, c

emen

t pro

duct

ion,

and

gas

!ar

ing

emiss

ions

(PgC

/yr)

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000

5

10

15

20

25

30Historical

RCP8.5RCP6Historical uncertaintyEarlier scenarios

RCP4.5RCP3-PD

2012 Estimate

RCP3-PD: 1.3!1.9°C

RCP4.52.0!3.0°C

RCP62.6!3.7°C

RCP8.54.0!6.1°C


Dams built 1800-2009

James Syvitski, CSDMS

2012 © Owen Gaffney 2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: NASA LandSat



24 OF 33 MAJOR DELTAS ARE SINKING

500 MILLION PEOPLE LIVE ON DELTAS

85% HIT BY SEVERE FLOODING RECENTLY Parts of Jakarta have sunk 4 metres since 1974

Pearl River Delta, China

Syvitski 2009, Nature Geoscience


Dubai


Dubai


Las Vegas


Las Vegas


“WE WILL BUILD MORE

URBAN AREAS IN THE 1ST 3 DECADES OF THE 21ST CENTURY THAN ALL OF HISTORY

COMBINED.” PROFESSOR KAREN SETO, YALE

2012 © Owen Gaffney 2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit: NASA/USGS

Deforestation in the Bolivian rainforest

2012 © Owen Gaffney 2012 © Owen Gaffney Ellis 2010

We use an area the size of South America to grow our crops And an area the size of Africa for our livestock.

2012 © Owen Gaffney 2012 © Owen Gaffney Science, 7 Oct 2011

90% of total mammalian biomass

is made up of humans and domesNcated

animals.

… up from 0.1% 10,000 years ago…



Paul J. CrutzenF or the past three centuries, the effects

of humans on the global environment

have escalated. Because of these anthro-

pogenic emissions of carbon dioxide, global

climate may depart significantly from

natural behaviour for many millennia to

come. It seems appropriate to assign the

term ‘Anthropocene’ to the present, in many

ways human-dominated, geological epoch,

supplementing the Holocene — the warm

period of the past 10–12 millennia. The

Anthropocene could be said to have started

in the latter part of the eighteenth century,

when analyses of air trapped in polar ice

showed the beginning of growing global

concentrations of carbon dioxide and

methane. This date also happens to coincide

with James Watt’s design of the steam engine

in 1784.Mankind’s growing influence on the

environment was recognized as long ago as

1873, when the Italian geologist Antonio

Stoppani spoke about a “new telluric force

which in power and universality may be

compared to the greater forces of earth,”

referring to the “anthropozoic era”. And

in 1926, V. I. Vernadsky acknowledged

the increasing impact of mankind: “The

direction in which the processes of evolution

must proceed, namely towards increasing

consciousness and thought, and forms

having greater and greater influence on their

surroundings.” Teilhard de Chardin and

Vernadsky used the term ‘noösphere’ — the

‘world of thought’ — to mark the growing

role of human brain-power in shaping its

own future and environment.

The rapid expansion of mankind in

numbers and per capita exploitation of

Earth’s resources has continued apace.

During the past three centuries, the human

population has increased tenfold to more

than 6 billion and is expected to reach 10 bil-

lion in this century. The methane-produc-

ing cattle population has risen to 1.4 billion.

About 30–50% of the planet’s land surface

is exploited by humans. Tropical rainforests

disappear at a fast pace, releasing carbon

dioxide and strongly increasing species

extinction. Dam building and river diver-

sion have become commonplace. More than

half of all accessible fresh water is used by

mankind. Fisheries remove more than 25%

of the primary production in upwelling

ocean regions and 35% in the temperate

continental shelf. Energy use has grown

16-fold during the twentieth century,

causing 160 million tonnes of atmospheric

sulphur dioxide emissions per year, more

than twice the sum of its natural emissions.

More nitrogen fertilizer is applied in

agriculture than is fixed naturally in all

terrestrial ecosystems; nitric oxide prod-

uction by the burning of fossil fuel and

biomass also overrides natural emissions.

Fossil-fuel burning and agriculture have

caused substantial increases in the concen-

trations of ‘greenhouse’ gases — carbon

dioxide by 30% and methane by more than

100% — reaching their highest levels over

the past 400 millennia, with more to follow.

So far, these effects have largely been

caused by only 25% of the world popula-

tion. The consequences are, among others,

acid precipitation, photochemical ‘smog’

and climate warming. Hence, according to

the latest estimates by the Intergovernmen-

tal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the

Earth will warm by 1.4–5.8 °C during this

century.Many toxic substances are released into

the environment, even some that are not

toxic at all but nevertheless have severely

damaging effects, for example the chloro-

fluorocarbons that caused the Antarctic

‘ozone hole’ (and which are now regulated).

Things could have become much worse: the

ozone-destroying properties of the halo-

gens have been studied since the mid-1970s.

If it had turned out that chlorine behaved

chemically like bromine, the ozone hole

would by then have been a global, year-

round phenomenon, not just an event

of the Antarctic spring. More by luck than

by wisdom, this catastrophic situation did

not develop.Unless there is a global catastrophe — a

meteorite impact, a world war or a pan-

demic — mankind will remain a major

environmental force for many millennia. A

daunting task lies ahead for scientists and

engineers to guide society towards environ-

mentally sustainable management during

the era of the Anthropocene. This will

require appropriate human behaviour at all

scales, and may well involve internationally

accepted, large-scale geo-engineering pro-

jects, for instance to ‘optimize’ climate. At

this stage, however, we are still largely

treading on terra incognita.

■

Paul J. Crutzen is at the Max Planck Institute for

Chemistry, PO Box 3060, D-55020 Mainz,

Germany, and the Scripps Institution of

Oceanography, University of California,

San Diego, 9500 Gillman Drive, La Jolla,

California 92093-7452, USA.FURTHER READING

Marsh, G. P. Man and Nature (1864). (Reprinted as The

Earth as Modified by Human Action (Belknap Press,

Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1965)).

Crutzen, P. J. & Stoermer, E. F. IGBP Newsletter 41

(Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences,

Stockholm, 2000).Clark, W. C. & Munn, R. E. (eds) Sustainable

Development of the Biosphere Ch. 1

(Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1986).

Vernadski, V. I. The Biosphere (translated and

annotated version from the original of 1926)

(Springer, New York, 1998).

Turner, B. L. et al. The Earth as Transformed by Human

Action (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1990).

McNeill, J. R. Something New Under the Sun: An

Environmental History of the Twentieth-Century World

(W. W. Norton, New York, 2000).

Houghton, J. T. et al. (eds) Climate Change 2001:

The Scientific Basis (Cambridge Univ. Press,

Cambridge, 2001).Berger, A. & Loutre, M.-F. C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris 323

(IIA), 1–16 (1996).Schellnhuber, H. J. Nature 402, C19–C23 (1999).

Geology of mankindconcepts

NATURE | VOL 415 |3 JANUARY 2002 |www.nature.com

23

The AnthropoceneThe Anthropocene could be said to

have started in the late eighteenth

century, when analyses of air trapped

in polar ice showed the beginning of

growing global concentrations of

carbon dioxide and methane.

© 2002 Macmillan Magazines Ltd

Paul Crutzen Nobel laureate Former IGBP Vice Chair


“Stop using the word Holocene. We’re not in the Holocene any more. We’re in the…the…

...ANTHROPOCENE”

2000. IGBP Scientific Committee meeting, Cuernavaca, Mexico

“It was quiet in the room for a while.”


1992: New York Times journalist Andrew Revkin’s book - Global Change mentions the Anthrocene

“We are entering an age that might someday be referred to as, say, the Anthrocene [sic]. AYer all, it is a geological age of our own making.”


1989: U.S writer and activist Bill McKibben publishes the End of Nature


1980s: U.S. biologist Eugene Stoermer’s (1934-2012) lectures mention the Anthropocene


NASA Earth rise

Sixties space exploration and the 1972 United Nations summit on the environment gave people a new perspective


Vladimir Verdansky (1963-1945)

•  Life is a geological force

•  Noösphere – the world of thought driving environmental change

Image; Memorial Office Museum of Academician VI Verdansky Moscow.


George Perkins Marsh (1801-1882) Man and Nature (1864)

The Earth as Modified by Human AcNon: Man and Nature. (1874)

George P. Marsh, photographed by Mathew B. Brady between 1855 and 1865. Brady-Handy Collection (Library of Congress). [call number: BH8201-4981; reproduction number: LC-BH8201-4981 DLC (b&w film copy neg.)


Edward Seuss (1831-1914)

Developed the concept of the biosphere.

Image: Eigenes Foto einer Originallithographie in eigenem Besitz


Antonio Stoppani (1824-1891)

‘Anthropozoic era’ Image: Paleontologica Lombarda

Humanity is a “new telluric force, which in power and universality may be compared to the greater forces of earth.” Corso di geologia 1873.


When did the Anthropocene start? Start of large-scale hunting? Dawn of agriculture? Industrial revolution? 1950?

Fire Agriculture Industrial revolution

Digital age

Hunting


Who decides?

2012 © Owen Gaffney 2012 © Owen Gaffney Credit 1996 [email protected]


But the rest of the world is not waiting…





Credit: BBC


Photo credit: Chris Meyer

“The concept of the ANTHROPOCENE heralds a profound shift in PERCEPTION of our place in the WORLD.” Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom (1933-2012) Planet Under Pressure


Centuries from now, the defining event of the 20th century may not be the Great Wars, the battle of ideologies, or even the Industrial Revolution per se. It may well be the ascendency of a single species to become the dominant geological force – in a single human lifetime.



…Where are we going? The role of ICT in changing the narrative



The industrialization of friendship The globalization of small talk


2011

Data: ITU Measuring the Information Society (2012) Pic credit: Paul Butler, visualizing friendship

2.3 billion internet users (30% of population) 6 billion mobile phone subscriptions By 2015, 60% of world population will be online

Global connectivity has moved into hyperdrive


Image: Steve Song. Copyright CC-BY


Within a decade A LL but the most marginalised in societies will be CO N N ECTED in new

and profound ways .

Pic credit: Paul Butler, visualizing friendship


“The regimes thought the youth were divorced from politics. They didn’t notice that young people were connected among themselves.” Syrian activist “Khaled”, Financial Times, Dec 2011.

Arab Spring


Arab Spring

Defining features •  Complex causes but

social media has defining role

•  Heightened awareness of equality and fairness

•  Social media exposes extent of distrust


Occupy movement

Defining features •  Social media has

defining role •  Demanding openness

and transparency •  Heightened

awareness of equality and fairness


Ball P. Nature

21 December 2011

“Discontinuities are… precisely what you would expect if you consider today’s societies from a complex-systems perspective.” “Social media…have the potential to facilitate qualitatively new collective behaviours.”



“Isolated, anonymous individuals overharvest common-pool resources.” BUT… Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom (1933-2012)



“Simply allowing COMMUNICATION, or “CHEAP TALK,” enables participants to reduce overharvesting. ” Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom (1933-2012)



•  Reliable knowledge •  Individuals like to see how

sustainability benefits whole group

•  Trust others to keep promises Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom (1933-2012)


Social networking is a keystone innovation


“There is a direct link from more precise gossip at the watercooler to better decisions.” Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman Thinking, fast and slow, 2011

Photo: Jon Roemer

With social networking we have a global watercooler


Sustainable Development Goals: Include ICT access for all


•  In one lifetime humanity has become a global geological force – the Great Acceleration

•  Earth is moving out of its current geological epoch, the Holocene – the Anthropocene

•  Action on global sustainability essential •  Change in WORLDVIEW required. Could social

media be a keystone innovation?

Conclusions



D N A L i k e D N A , t h e w o r d

ANTHROPOCENE is destined to leap from the world of science into the

GLOBAL LEXICON


www.anthropocene.info www.anthropocenejournal.com www.igbp.net


WELCOME TO THE ANTHROPOCENE The geology of humanity MELBOURNE, December 2012

Thank you! @owengaffney #anthropocene WEB www.anthropocene.info www.anthropocenejournal.com www.igbp.net EMAIL [email protected]

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Welcome to the anthropocene: geology of humanity (adapted for web 6 Dec 2012)

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