What Drives Policy Change? Evidence from Six Empirical Applications of the

Kaleidoscope Model

Steve Haggblade

What Drives Policy Change?

Evidence from six empirical applications of the Kaleidoscope Model:

• Micronutrient policies (Malawi, South Africa, Zambia)

• Input subsidy policies (Ghana, Tanzania, Zambia)

Sample of Policy Reform Episodes

Reform characteristics

Micro-

nutrients

Input

subsidies Total

Made the agenda 38 12 50

Affirmative decisions 35 11 46

Implementation

Private sector 19 7 26

Public sector 16 4 20

Sixteen Testable Hypotheses

Results: Agenda Setting & Design

Policy domain

Policy stage Kaleidoscope hypotheses

Micro-

nutrients

Input

subsidy

Agenda setting 1 Recognized, relevant problem 84% 100%

2 Focusing event 82% 58%

3 Powerful advocates 84% 100%

Design 4 Knowledge, research, and ideas 89% 58%

5 Norms, biases, ideology, beliefs 16% 100%

6 Cost-benefit, risk calculations 55% 75%

Results: Adoption and Implementation

Adoption 7 Powerful opponents vs. proponents 68% 92%

8 Government veto players

+ affirmative decision 88% 100%

- exercise veto 12% 0%

9 Propitious timing 3% 27%

Implementation 10 Requisite budget 61% 82%

11 Institutional capacity 53% 100%

12 Implementing stage veto players

+ facilitate implementation 87% 45%

- stymie implementation 13% 55%

13 Commitment of policy champions 50% 91%

Results: Adoption and Implementation

Adoption 7 Powerful opponents vs. proponents 68% 92%

8 Government veto players

+ affirmative decision 88% 100%

- exercise veto 12% 0%

9 Propitious timing 3% 27%

Implementation 10 Requisite budget 61% 82%

11 Institutional capacity 53% 100%

12 Implementing stage veto players

+ facilitate implementation 87% 45%

- stymie implementation 13% 55%

13 Commitment of policy champions 50% 91%

Results: Evaluation and Reform

Policy domain

Policy stage Kaleidoscope hypotheses

Micro-

nutrients

Input

subsidy

Evaluation

and reform 14 Changing info and beliefs 50% 82%

15 Changing material conditions 42% 82%

16 Institutional shifts 32% 18%

Opportunities for Effective Engagement

• Credible evidence • Advocacy • Financial support • Institutional reform

Evidence

Policy domain

Policy stage Kaleidoscope hypotheses Micronutrients Input subsidy

Agenda setting 1 Recognized, relevant problem 84% 100%

2 Focusing events 82% 58%

3 Powerful advocates 84% 100%

Design 4 Knowledge, research and ideas 89% 58%

5 Norms, biases, ideology, beliefs 16% 100%

6 Cost-benefit, risk calculations 55% 75%

Adoption 7 Powerful opponents vs. proponents 68% 92%

8 Government veto players

+ affirmative decision 88% 100%

- exercise veto 12% 0%

9 Propitious timing 3% 27%

Implementation 10 Requisite budget 61% 82%

11 Institutional capacity 53% 100%

12 Implementing stage veto players

+ facilitate implementation 87% 45%

- stymie implementation 13% 55%

13 Commitment of policy champions 50% 91%

Evaluation

and reform 14 Changing info and beliefs 50% 82%

15 Changing material conditions 42% 82%

16 Institutional shifts 32% 18%

Advocacy

Policy domain

Policy stage Kaleidoscope hypotheses Micronutrients Input subsidy

Agenda setting 1 Recognized, relevant problem 84% 100%

2 Focusing events 82% 58%

3 Powerful advocates 84% 100%

Design 4 Knowledge, research and ideas 89% 58%

5 Norms, biases, ideology, beliefs 16% 100%

6 Cost-benefit, risk calculations 55% 75%

Adoption 7 Powerful opponents vs. proponents 68% 92%

8 Government veto players

+ affirmative decision 88% 100%

- exercise veto 12% 0%

9 Propitious timing 3% 27%

Implementation 10 Requisite budget 61% 82%

11 Institutional capacity 53% 100%

12 Implementing stage veto players

+ facilitate implementation 87% 45%

- stymie implementation 13% 55%

13 Commitment of policy champions 50% 91%

Evaluation

and reform 14 Changing info and beliefs 50% 82%

15 Changing material conditions 42% 82%

16 Institutional shifts 32% 18%

Financing

Policy domain

Policy stage Kaleidoscope hypotheses Micronutrients Input subsidy

Agenda setting 1 Recognized, relevant problem 84% 100%

2 Focusing events 82% 58%

3 Powerful advocates 84% 100%

Design 4 Knowledge, research and ideas 89% 58%

5 Norms, biases, ideology, beliefs 16% 100%

6 Cost-benefit, risk calculations 55% 75%

Adoption 7 Powerful opponents vs. proponents 68% 92%

8 Government veto players

+ affirmative decision 88% 100%

- exercise veto 12% 0%

9 Propitious timing 3% 27%

Implementation 10 Requisite budget 61% 82%

11 Institutional capacity 53% 100%

12 Implementing stage veto players

+ facilitate implementation 87% 45%

- stymie implementation 13% 55%

13 Commitment of policy champions 50% 91%

Evaluation

and reform 14 Changing info and beliefs 50% 82%

15 Changing material conditions 42% 82%

16 Institutional shifts 32% 18%

Institutional Change

Policy domain

Policy stage Kaleidoscope hypotheses Micronutrients Input subsidy

Agenda setting 1 Recognized, relevant problem 84% 100%

2 Focusing events 82% 58%

3 Powerful advocates 84% 100%

Design 4 Knowledge, research and ideas 89% 58%

5 Norms, biases, ideology, beliefs 16% 100%

6 Cost-benefit, risk calculations 55% 75%

Adoption 7 Powerful opponents vs. proponents 68% 92%

8 Government veto players

+ affirmative decision 88% 100%

- exercise veto 12% 0%

9 Propitious timing 3% 27%

Implementation 10 Requisite budget 61% 82%

11 Institutional capacity 53% 100%

12 Implementing stage veto players

+ facilitate implementation 87% 45%

- stymie implementation 13% 55%

13 Commitment of policy champions 50% 91%

Evaluation,

reform 14 Changing info and beliefs 50% 82%

15 Changing material conditions 42% 82%

16 Institutional shifts 32% 18%

When is policy reform most feasible?

• Credible evidence • Advocates • Financial support • Institutional reform

We wish to acknowledge the co-authors of the six initial

field studies:

Suresh Babu, Nicolette Hall, Jody Harris, Nicole Mason, Elizabeth

Mkandawire, David Mather, Stephen Morgan, Flora Nankhuni, David

Ndyetabula, Dorothy Nthani, Nic JJ Olivier, Nico JJ Olivier, Phillip

Randall and Hettie C Schönfeldt.

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