What factors affect population change?

The Input-Output Model of Population Change

Inputs

Outputs

Natural Change

Net Migratio

n

The factors affecting population change can be grouped into FOUR categories. The importance of each category will vary over time and from place to place.

DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS

SOCIAL/CULTURAL FACTORS

ECONOMIC FACTORS

POLITICAL FACTORS

Demographic Factors

Demographic Factors

Infant mortality rates play an important part in influencing fertility rates. For example, if a country has an IMR of 100 per 1000, a woman has to have ten children to be 95% sure that one baby will live to adulthood, this is the case in sub-Saharan Africa.

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) – the average number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime.

Social/Cultural FactorsWhat do the following images indicate in

terms of their influence on population change ?

Social/Cultural Factors

o Some societies have intense cultural expectations that women should marry and have large families.

o Education, especially female literacy is the key to lower fertility.o Education = knowledge of birth control, social awareness, opportunity for employment and more choice.o Social class – fertility tends to decline in the highest social classes first.

o Religion – Muslim and Roman Catholic religions oppose artificial birth control. 90% of countries worldwide with a TFR over 7.0 are Islamic.

Economic Factors

Economic Factors

In many of the least developed countries child are seen as an economic asset – they are producers rather than consumers. For example, in Bangladesh boys are on average producing more than they consume by age 10, and have ‘repaid’ all of their parents investment in them by the time they are 15.

In the developed world this is reversed and the cost of raising children is a major factor in starting/extending a family. In the USA families are better off if they have fewer children since it costs on average $100,000 to raise a child to age 18.

Economic growth = lowering mortality due to more spending on health, housing, education etc.

Distribution of wealth within a country is also very important: share unequal = high BR share equal = BR lower.

E.g. Kenya GNP $340 - 45.8% of wealth owned by richest 10% - TFR = 8.0 Sri Lanka GNP $340 - 28.2% of wealth owned by richest 10% - TFR = 3.4

Political FactorsHOW and WHY do governments attempt to

change the rate of population growth?

Political Factors

The past century has seen many governments attempt to change the rate of population growth for economic and strategic reasons.

During the late 1930s Germany, Italy and Japan all offered inducements and concessions to those with large families.

More recently Malaysia adopted a similar policy.

However, today most governments are looking to change fertility rates with the aim of reducing population growth.

E.g. In China taxes are increased and housing subsidies removed in child quota exceeded.

The Indian government has introduced incentives to encourage the use of birth control.

BONGAART’S FERTILITY TRANSITION MODEL• When human control of methods of fertility rates take over from natural controls of fertility then fertility rates will fall e.g. China

• Natural factors are influenced by:

Age structure of the population Poverty The low status and education of women

• Human fertility controls are stimulated by:

Rising incomes Education Positive government policy Investment in family planning