What Factors What Factors Influence Collisions Influence Collisions Rates the Most ? Rates the Most ?

By: Dimitar Hristov, Vesko By: Dimitar Hristov, Vesko Avramov, and Ayman BarriAvramov, and Ayman Barri

Brookfield High School, Brookfield High School, OttawaOttawa

Thesis: What influences collision rates the most?

IntroductionIntroduction

Road traffic accidents kill more than one million people a year, injuring another Road traffic accidents kill more than one million people a year, injuring another thirty-eight million (5 million of them seriously).  The death toll on the world's thirty-eight million (5 million of them seriously).  The death toll on the world's roadways makes driving the number one cause of death and injury for young roadways makes driving the number one cause of death and injury for young people ages 15 to 44. people ages 15 to 44. 

This is a cross-sectional study of Ontario’s drivers and the factors that affect This is a cross-sectional study of Ontario’s drivers and the factors that affect collision rates the most. The topic itself is very broad but we have chosen 8 collision rates the most. The topic itself is very broad but we have chosen 8 question that we will focus on in our study. The information gathered in this question that we will focus on in our study. The information gathered in this research was primarily quantitative data which was collected using secondary research was primarily quantitative data which was collected using secondary data from the years 1993 – 2003data from the years 1993 – 2003

Questions of Focus:Questions of Focus:

What was the number of collisions by gender in between the period of 1993-What was the number of collisions by gender in between the period of 1993-2003?2003?

What was the number of collisions by age groups in between the period of 1993-What was the number of collisions by age groups in between the period of 1993-2003?2003?

How did driving schools affect collisions in between the period of 1993-2003?How did driving schools affect collisions in between the period of 1993-2003? What was the number of impaired drivers involved in collisions in between the What was the number of impaired drivers involved in collisions in between the

period of 1993-2003?period of 1993-2003? What time of the day did most collisions occur in between the period of 1993-What time of the day did most collisions occur in between the period of 1993-

2003?2003? How many collisions occurred due to apparent driver action in between the How many collisions occurred due to apparent driver action in between the

period of 1993-2003?period of 1993-2003? How many collisions occurred due to weather conditions in between the period How many collisions occurred due to weather conditions in between the period

of 1993-2003?of 1993-2003? How did technology and car accessories affect collisions in between the period How did technology and car accessories affect collisions in between the period

of 1993-2003?of 1993-2003?

Section 1: Collisions by Section 1: Collisions by GenderGender

Number of collisions by gender

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

co

llis

ion

s

Male # of collisions Female # of collisions Total # of collisions

Annex A – Table 1

Number of licensed drivers by gender

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

lice

ns

ed

dri

ve

rs

# of male licensed drivers # of female licensed drivers Total # of licensed drivers

Annex A – Table 2

Number (%) of collisions by gender from total number of licensed drivers

0

12

3

4

56

7

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

co

llis

ion

s a

s a

%

Male drivers in collision (%) Female drivers in collision (%) Total (%)

Male Female

Mean 283,114 127,306

Median 283,434 122,624

Standard Deviation 19,929 8,747

Annex A – Table 3

Section 2: Collisions by Age Section 2: Collisions by Age GroupsGroups

Percentage of Collisions by Age Group of the Total Number of Licensed Drivers in Ontario

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year

Per

cen

tag

e o

f C

oll

isio

ns under 16

16-20

21-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75+

unknown

Annex B – Table 4

Age GroupAge Group S. DeviationS. Deviation

Under 16Under 16 0.0010.001

16 – 2016 – 20 0.0650.065

21 – 2421 – 24 0.0540.054

25-3425-34 0.1850.185

35-4435-44 0.0000.000

45 – 5445 – 54 0.0380.038

55 – 6455 – 64 0.0230.023

65 – 7465 – 74 0.0080.008

75 +75 + 0.0090.009

unknownunknown 0.0640.064

Sample Calculation: 1993 Probability of age group 16-20 to be in a collision :

= # of 16-20 drivers in collisions / # of 16-20 drivers= 45862 / 437612= 10.48%

Annex B – Table 4

Age Group Probability for Year (in %)

‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03

Under 16 - - - - - - - - - - -

16-20 10.48 9.48 8.32 7.29 6.96 6.91 7.02 7.63 7.45 7.36 6.95

21-24 8.26 7.97 7.72 7.17 6.93 6.77 6.99 7.35 6.93 7.07 6.74

25-34 6.59 6.52 6.32 6.15 6.00 5.64 5.76 5.93 5.58 5.68 5.66

35-44 5.14 5.13 4.97 4.92 4.96 4.69 4.84 5.08 4.91 5.07 5.12

45-54 4.38 4.42 4.29 4.24 4.32 4.11 4.14 4.35 4.20 4.35 4.37

55-64 3.74 3.72 3.59 3.63 3.64 3.41 3.52 3.70 3.48 3.61 3.61

65-74 3.06 3.02 2.97 2.92 2.92 2.78 2.76 2.90 2.79 2.86 2.83

75+ 3.49 3.21 3.35 3.16 2.97 2.87 2.75 2.73 2.65 2.69 2.60

unknown - - - - - - - - - - -

Annex B – Table 2&3

Probability of Involvement in Collisions by Age Groups

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

16-20

21-24

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-64

65-74

75+

Section 3: The Effect of Section 3: The Effect of Driving Schools on CollisionsDriving Schools on Collisions

The Effects of Driving Schools on Collisions

05

101520

2530

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Year

Per

cen

tag

e o

f C

oll

isio

ns

Series1

Section 4: Impaired DriversSection 4: Impaired DriversPercentage of Impaired Drivers Involved in Collisions of the

Total Number of Licensed Drivers in Ontario

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

Annex d – Table 2

Section 5: Time of DaySection 5: Time of DayPercentage of Collisions by Time of Day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

Per

cen

tag

e o

f C

oll

isio

ns

Mid. - 3 am

3 am - 6 am

6 am - 9 am

9 am - Noon

Noon - 3 pm

3 pm - 6 pm

6 pm - 9 pm

9 pm - Mid.

unknown

Annex E – Table 1

Section 6: Collisions due to Section 6: Collisions due to Apparent Driver ActionApparent Driver ActionNumber of collisions as a percentage due to apparent

driver's action

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

co

llis

ion

s a

s a

p

erc

en

tag

e

Speed too Fast Speed too fast for conditions Speed too slow Improper TurnDisobey Traffic Control Fail to Yield Right of Way Improper Passing Lost ControlWrong Way on One Way Road Improper Lane Change other Unknown

Annex F – Table 1

Collisions due to apparent driver action

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

1

Apparent driver action

Nu

mb

er

of

co

llis

ion

s

Speed too Fast Speed too fast for conditionsSpeed too slow Improper TurnDisobey Traffic Control Fail to Yield Right of WayImproper Passing Lost ControlWrong Way on One Way Road Improper Lane Changeother Unknown

Annex F – Table 2

Section 7: Collisions due to Section 7: Collisions due to Weather ConditionsWeather Conditions

Collisions due to weather conditions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Num

ber o

f acc

iden

ts a

s a

perc

enta

ge

Dry Wet Loose Snow Slush Packed Snow Ice Mud Loose Sand or Gravel Spilled Liquid Other

Annex G – Table 1

Collisions due to weather conditions

0200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,000

1

# o

f co

llisi

on

s

Dry Wet Loose Snow Slush

Packed Snow Ice Mud Loose Sand or Gravel

Spilled Liquid Other

Annex G – Table 2

Section 8: Collisions due to Section 8: Collisions due to Apparent Driver ActionApparent Driver Action

Percentage of Collisions due to Technology and Car Assessories of the Total Number of Licensed

Drivers in Ontario

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Per

cen

tag

e

Annex H – Table 2

Conclusion:Conclusion:

Since most people feel that young drivers are Since most people feel that young drivers are the main reason for collisions, we have decided the main reason for collisions, we have decided to conduct a research on the various factors to conduct a research on the various factors that cause the most collisions. The biggest that cause the most collisions. The biggest factor that causes collisions is in fact the time factor that causes collisions is in fact the time of the day. The most collisions occur during the of the day. The most collisions occur during the period of 3pm – 6pm. The second biggest factor period of 3pm – 6pm. The second biggest factor that causes collisions is apparent driver action, that causes collisions is apparent driver action, for example speeding, loosing control of for example speeding, loosing control of vehicle, failing to follow driving rules, and etc. vehicle, failing to follow driving rules, and etc. Weather condition is the third biggest factor Weather condition is the third biggest factor and the last but not least factor of collisions are and the last but not least factor of collisions are the age groups.the age groups.

Collision Clip 1.wmvCollision Clip 1.wmv

Collision Clip 2Collision Clip 2

Bibliography:Bibliography:

http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safhttp://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/safety/orsarety/orsar

http://www.statcan.cahttp://www.statcan.ca http://http://www.ssc.cawww.ssc.ca//