Choosing between Low or High Carbon I t i D l t P ttIntensive Development Patterns:What is the Rationale?
P.R. ShuklaI di I tit t f M tIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India
Symposium on: Transition towards low carbon societies in a changing world Organized by: International Research Network for Low Carbon Societies (LCS-RNet) November 29 2011 Durban South AfricaNovember 29, 2011, Durban, South Africa
Presentation Agenda• Low Carbon Society: The Framing
– Low Carbon Society Perspectives– Mapping Low Carbon Scenarios on a new Track
• Aligning Development & Climate Actions• Aligning Development & Climate Actions– Regional Cooperation and Coordination
S t E T t & I f t t– Sector: E.g. Transport & Infrastructures– Cities: Mitigation & Climate Proofing
• Conclusions
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Low Carbon Society: FramingConventional: Climate Centric ParadigmIdeal World•Universal Carbon Market•Universal Carbon Market
•Perfect Energy Market
•Flexible Supply / Inflexible Demand
•Rational Decision-makers
•‘Zero-Sum’ Game (Competition and Conflicts)
•Externalities and Risk Framework
Sustainability: Development & ClimateReal World•Fragmented Carbon Market
•Distorted Energy Markets
•Constrained Decision-makers
Fl ibl D d d S l•Flexible Demand and Supply
•Multiple Dividends (Cooperation & Co-benefits)
•Innovations and Opportunity Framework
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
pp y
Low Carbon Scenarios• Mapping Transitions
– Demographic; Urban/Rural; Income; Behavior (e.g. consumption); Institutions
• Economics: Paradigm Shift– Cooperation & Co-benefits (e.g. energy security, AQ)
– Finance (discount rates)a ce (d scou t ates)
– Market vs. Social Value of Carbon
• Policies – Technology: Infrastructures; Targeted R&D + industryTechnology: Infrastructures; Targeted R&D + industry
– Coordinate policies to gain co-benefits
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
– Climate Proofing (Carbon price + Adaptation)
Integrated Multi-Model Structure
Soft‐Linked Integrated Model Systems (SLIMS)
DATABASES-Socio -Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constrai nts
DATABASESSocio‐Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment
AIM CGE ModelGCAM‐IIM/AIM CGEAIM CGE Model
A
GCAM IIM/AIM CGEel
Sustainab
ANSWER -MARKAL
Model
man
d A
IM Strate(m
and ANSWER‐MARKAL
Modelnd M
ode Scenari
bility Indi
d U
se D
emM
odel
egic Databa
(SDB
)d
Use
Dem
Mod
else Dem
aio D
atab
cators Da
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd ase
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd
AIM ExSS
End‐Us ase
atabase
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Mitigation Options: Climate-centric
8,000
6,000CO
2Other
CCS
Baseline Emissions
4,000lion
Ton
C CCS
Device EfficiencyN lFossil Switch
2,000
Mill Nuclear
RenewableE i i (f 2O T t)
02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Emissions (for 2 Target)
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Carbon Price ($) 20 87 136 20052
Technolog Co operation AreasClimate centric Approach: transition of Technology Co-operation Areas• Energy Efficiency• Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro• Nuclear/CCS
Climate-centric Approach: transition of conventional path with carbon price
• High Carbon Price• Climate Focused Technology Push
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Nuclear/CCSClimate Focused Technology Push• Top-down/Supply-side actions
Mitigation Options: Sustainability
8,000
6,000
n C
O2
CCSTransport Reduced ConsumptionRecyclingMaterial Substitutions
4,000illio
n To
n e Subs u o sDevice Efficiency
Renewable EnergyFossil Switch
2,000
M
Renewable Energy
Building O
02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Emissions (for 2O Target)
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Carbon Price ($) 15 55 100 11728
Technology Co operation AreasSustainability Approach: aligning climate Technology Co-operation Areas• Transport Infrastructure Technologies• 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy• Process Technologies
Sustainability Approach: aligning climate and sustainable development actions
• Lower Carbon Price• Bottom-up/Demand-side actions
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
g• Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes• Behavioural change
• Diverse Technology portfolio
Pathways to 2OC Stabilization:Pathways to 2 C Stabilization:Aligning Development & Climate Actions
( ith ill t ti f t f I di )(with illustrations from assessment for India)
Regional Cooperation and Coordination– Regional Cooperation and Coordination
– Role of Sector Policies and Actions: E.g. Transport
– Role of Cities: Mitigation & Climate Proofing
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Co-benefits of Energy ChoicesgyCoCo--benefits of Southbenefits of South--Asia Asia
Integrated EnergyIntegrated Energy Water MarketWater MarketIntegrated EnergyIntegrated Energy--Water MarketWater Market
Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 2010 to 2030
$ Billion % GDP
Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87
CO2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08
SO2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03
Total 359 0.98
Spill-over & Co-BenefitsM W t f F d P d ti (MDG1)
!.
!.
!.
!
China
Iran
Afghanistan
TurkmenistanTajikistanUzbekistan
Ambala
Nangal
SangrurLudhiana
Bathinda
Herat
MultanQuetta
DelaramKandhar
• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)
• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)
!. !.
!.
!.!.!.!.
ѺѺ
India
Pakistan
OmanMyanmar (Burma)
Nepal
Saudi Arabia
Bangladesh
Bhutan
United Arab Emirates
QatarBahrain
GayaKota
Guna
Patna
Delhi
Anand
Dadra
SuratOlpad
Kalol
DispurKanpur
Jhansi
UjjainJhabua
Valsad
NadiadRajkot
Kolkata
Sonipat
AuraiyaGwalior
Chotila Bharuch
Bareilly
Vijaypur
Mahesana
Faridabad
Jagdishpuri
ShahjahanpurKhuzdar
Karachi
South-ParsIranshaharBandar-e-Abbas
L d • Flood control (MDG1&7)
• Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries
¨
F
ѺThailand
Yemen
Somalia
LaosPune
Gadag
Kochi
Panvel
Hassan
SolapurGuhagarChiptun
Chennai
Nellore
PalmanerChittoor
Kokinada
MangaloreBangalore
VijaywadaRatnagiri
Coimbatore
Vishakhapattnam
Tiruchchirappalli
Legend Important PlacesExisting Gas Pipelines
Proposed Gas PipelinesExisting LNG terminalsProposed LNG terminalsExisting Gas Basin
Gas Pipelines under construction
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)
F
Sri Lanka
MalaysiaIndonesiaMaldives
Kochi
TutikorinKayankulamProposed Gas Basin¨
Linking Global Best Practices with National Policies
• Avoid Lock-ins (Infrastructure)Sustainability Scenario
Avoid Lock-ins (Infrastructure) Transport Energy
C b fit• Co-benefits Energy Security Air Quality
W t S itWater Security Social Value of Carbon
i i
EV Coal + CCS
Demand Side Supply SideConventional Strategies
EV Coal + CCS
Demand Side Supply SideConventional Strategies
Transport Transitions
EV Coal + CCSEV Coal + CCS
CO2 from Transport =CO2 from Transport =
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
ICT BRT/Metro Land Use Modal Shift Renewable
2OC Stabilization with Sustainability
ICT BRT/Metro Land Use Modal Shift Renewable
2OC Stabilization with Sustainability
Macro Indicators of Low Carbon Transport
Economic Carbon Intensity of
Energy Security Transport Infrastructure
Total Cost of Transport
Transport Investment
Social Access to T t
Transport S b idi
Food SecurityTransport Subsidies
Environmental Air Pollution Water: SafetyEnvironmentalPollution & Stress
y
Technical Vehicle (fleet) Energy & Emissions
Carbon Content of
Transport Demand Substitution
Operational Efficiency of TransportEmissions
Efficiency Electricity Substitution Transport
Infrastructure
Meta / Sustainable National Investment in Meta / Strategic
Urban Form and Structure
Logistics Grid Transport Sector Innovations
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Infrastructures to Overcome Lock-ins
Coal by Wire
Coal
Composition of Railway Freight Traffic (%): 2010
5%
5%3%
8%
Coal
Iron Ore, Steel & Pig Iron
Cement
Foodgrains 44%
10%
4%
g
Fertilizers
Petroleum Oil Lubricants
Container Service
21%Others
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Konkan Railway: Climate ProofingA. Increase in mean
More number of days with >200
mm rainfallPresent Climate
Prob
abili
ty o
f O
ccur
renc
e
Very high number of days with >200 mm
rainfall
Less number of days with >200
mm rainfall Future Climate
Light and spread-over rain
Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with
> 200mm rainfall
B. Increase in variance
ility
of
r enc
e
More number of days with >200
mm rainfall Very high
number of days ith >200
Less number of days with >200
mm rainfall Very less number of days
ith >200
Present Climate
Future Climate
Prob
abi
Occ
urr
with >200 mm rainfall
with >200 mm rainfall
Light and spread-over rain
Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with
> 200mm rainfall
C. Increase in mean and variance
More number of d ith >200
Present Climate
Prob
abili
ty o
f O
ccur
renc
e
days with >200 mm rainfall Very high
number of days with >200 mm
rainfall
Less number of days with >200
mm rainfall
Future Climate
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Light and spread-over rain
Heavy and concentrated rain Number of days with
> 200mm rainfall
City Planning: Co-benefitsAhmedabad City: Pop. In 2010 - 5.5. Million Per Capita CO2 Emissions (Ton)
8.15
5.63
2.16
3.132.16
2005 2035 BAU 2035 LCS 2050 BaU 2050 LCS
Co-benefits: Transport Transitions
80
90
100 2W
Train223 199
255.704300
Co-benefits: Water per capita (ML/million)
40
50
60
70
80 Bus
Large Passenger Vehicle
Car & 3 W
163.99
223.199
148.974 169.25
100
200
0
10
20
30
40
0
100
2005 2035 2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
02005 2035 BaU 2035 LCS 2050 BaU 2050 LCS Base WECC
Water Availability (DELHI)Existing and Envisaged Sources of Water
No Climate Change Climate Change SRES B2Water Supply from Various Sources
2500
Water Supply from Various Sources Under Climate Change
2500
No Climate Change Climate Change – SRES B2
400 400 400 400
55 55 55 55
2000
2500
552000
2500
200
551500
Yamuna river bed potentialNCR Augumentation (CGWB)Additional Plan
200
400
400 40055
55 55
400
55
1500
Yamuna river bed potentialNCR Augumentation (CGWB)Additional Plan
0 0
440
865 865 865 865
0200
0
55
1000
Additional PlanSub Surface WaterRecycling of Waste WaterSaving of SeepageUpper Ganga CanalBBMB 45
135 135135 135
0 0
462692
648.75 631.450200
0
45501.7
55
1000
Additional PlanSub Surface WaterRecycling of Waste WaterSaving of SeepageUpper Ganga CanalBBMB
140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140
100 100240 240 240 240 240 240 2400 0
80 80 80 80 80 80 80
0 0
45 45 45 45 45 45
100 100
135 135 135 135 135 135 135
0 00 00 0
45
500
BBMBYamuna River
140168 168 144.2 128.8
100
288 288 247.2 220.8
206.4 199.20 0
80 8080 80
80 800 0
4545 45
45 45100
135
135 1350 00 00 0
140192
1008045
45
135
100500
BBMBYamuna River
310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310 310
140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140 140
02001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101
310 372 372 372 372248 248
140120.4 116.2
248310
112140
02001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101
Year
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2041 2061 2081 2101
Year
Co-benefits: Energy Security & Air Quality
Co benefits: Energy Security1,600e) 2050 PE Demand
1,200
1,600
and
(Mto
e
Base 2825 CT 2945 SS 2207
2050 PE Demand
Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions800
,
rgy
Dem
a
12
14
Base Case400
mar
y En
e
6
8
10
ion
tSO
2
S t i bilit
ConventionalScenario0
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewable
Prim
2
4
6
Mill
i Sustainability Scenario
0
2
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Social vs. Market Value of Carbon
250Social Value of Carbon
200
2)
150
S $/
tCO
2
2OC Climate-centric Mitigation Scenario
8
GDP Loss for India
2OC Sustainability
100
Pric
e (U
S
6
7 2OC Climate-centric Mitigation Scenario
yScenario
Base Scenario0
50
P
% 45
6
2OC Sustainability Scenario0
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 %2
3
4 Scenario
1
2
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
02005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
• Conventional development path is untenableConclusions: Choice of Development Path
• Conventional development path is untenable
• Alternate ‘Development Paths’ are feasible &• Alternate Development Paths are feasible & advisable
• Sequencing may favor emerging countries to align development and climate actionsdevelopment and climate actions
• Artificial separation of ‘baseline’ and ‘climate change’Artificial separation of baseline and climate change actions is not helping
• Act early (in mitigation & adaptation) to avoid ‘lock-ins’
• ‘Social value of carbon’ is lower than ‘market valueThank youIndian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Thank you
