Why E/3?

Dr. Kelly Kissock

Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

Department of Renewable and Clean Energy

University of Dayton

What on Earth Are These?

   

World Energy Use

World Population

World Economic Output

Converting Heat to Work

Since pre-history we knew how to:

Work Heat

Industrial Revolution to:

Work Heat

Newcomen’s Steam Engine~1712

Revolutionary Change

Transforms economy: textile production increases 150 fold and prices drop 90%

Transforms place: cities grow from 5% to 50%

Transforms family: parents leave home to work

Redimensions world: steam ship and railroad

Technology and population explode

Economic Explosion

From 1700-2000, per capita US/Europe income grows from $600 to $18,000 per year

Increases 30x!

Energy Revolution Creates Modern World

Single Most Important Event in Human History

We’ve Come a Long Way…

Newcomen’s steam engine: 0.5% Watt’s steam engine: 1% Gasoline engines: 30% Coal Rankine cycles: 35% Turbines: 40% Diesel engines: 50% Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines:

60%

But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged…

1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels

2. Employ combustion to release heat CH4+2 (O2) = CO2+2 (H20) 3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion

84% Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels

In U.S. 86% from non-renewable fossil fuels Source: U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005

Resource Constraints

M. King Hubbert

Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction: US Oil Production Will Peak in 1973

Actual U.S. Oil Production (Peaks in 1972)

Source: www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.html

Hubbert’s 1956 Prediction:World Oil Production Will Peak in 2000

Cambell’s World Oil Peak

ASPO World Oil Peak

World OilNear Peak Production

Peak production = 2015 Based on 1,800 BB “World Oil Resources’, WRI 1994

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

BB

Hubbert Curve Actual

EIA’s World Oil Peak

Extreme Oil

“Oil sands and offshore drilling are both symptoms of the same problem: We’re running out of easy oil.”

Simon Dyer

Canada’s Oil Sands

Total resource ~ Saudi Arabia; #1 source of imported oil for US (22%) GHG production from processing 400% greater than domestic oil, but

well-to-wheel increase 5% - 15% greater Surface mining (20%):

• Strip earth’s surface for black goo called bitumen; 2 tons of sand / barrel oil• 1 barrel bitumen generates 500 gallons of liquid tailings• Tailing ponds cover 50 square miles; 3 million gallons/day leak into surrounding watershed• 1,600 waterbirds died in a single tailing pond

In situ mining (80%):• Inject natural gas-heated steam into wells to drive bitumen to surface• Blend bitumen with natural gas liquids to transport and process

Deep Water Drilling

Gulf of Mexico• 6,000 wells• Progressively deeper

water • Deepwater Horizon:

5,000 ft water

Source: http://coto2.files.wordpress.com/

Brazil’s Tupi Field:• 7,200 ft water + 15,000

ft sandstone/rock salt• $1 million/day to operate

platform• “The only political fight

in Brazil is over how to spend its future oil bounty and who gets the lions share.”

Source: http://revolutionaryfrontlines.files.wordpress.com/

World Natural GasNear Peak Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

10

^1

2 f

t3

Hubbert Curve Actual

Peak production = 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF ‘World Dry Natural Gas Reserves’, Oil and Gas Journal,

IEA 2004

World CoalPeak Production 2050?

Peak production = 2060 Based on 997,506 MT ‘World Estimated Recoverable Coal’, IEA 2004

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

10

^6

to

ns

Hubbert Curve Actual

Consequences of Peak Fuel

• Rising demand and falling supply rapidly increases fuel prices

• Rising fuel prices reduce expendable income and cause recessions

• Rising fuel prices drain fuel importing economies and increase trade deficits

• Competition for dwindling supply increase national security risks

• Rising fuel prices support undemocratic regimes (Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, etc.)

Environmental Perspective

“Using energy in today’s ways leads

to more environmental damage than

any other peaceful human activity.”

The Economist, 1990.

99% 95% 95%

73% 70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CO2 SO2 NOx VOC CO

95% Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil Fuels

Global CO2 Concentration

• Keeling Curve: Mauna Loa, Hawaii

• 2005 Concentration: ~380 ppm

Coincident Global Warming

Hansen, J., “Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic

Interference with Global Climate?”,

American Geophysical Union,

2005.

Even (N2 02) and Odd (CO2 CH4) Atmospheric Molecules

“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Greenhouse Gas Trends

Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change, 2001, “Summary for Policymakers”

Historical Temperature and CO2 Correlation

“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Today’s Concentrations “Off the Chart”

Hansen, J., 2005, “A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?”, Climatic Change, Vol. 68, No. 3., 2005, Pages 269-279.

Result: Earth Quickly Warming

Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research

Warming Most Pronounced At Poles

“Changing Climate”, Stephen Schneider, Scientific American, 10/1989

Melting Polar and Greenland Ice Caps

Rising Sea Level & Low Elevation Flooding

And the List Goes On…

Drought Severe weather Mass extinctions (30% of species lose

range) Accelerating non-linear irreversible

process• Methane release from thawing “perma-

frost”• Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover…

Debate?

Consensus view from:• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)• Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS)• Every G8 ‘National Academy of Science’

Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306, 2004):• All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993 –

2004 with key words “climate change”.• Found 983 papers• NONE disagreed with consensus position

Time Lags Amplify Effects

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary, 2001

Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere Filling Up

Fossil Fuel Resources

Economy

Energy Out

Atmosphere

Fossil Fuel

Energy

CO2 &Pollution

Linear Model of Production

TechnicalBiological

Ecological Model of Production

Transition to Sustainability IsCentral Challenge of 21st Century

Pre-industrial revolution

Industrial revolution

21st century

TimeToday

OECD / Non-OECD Contributions

Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (NRDC)

Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

US Carbon Stabilization Scenario (ASES)

Kutscher, C., “Tackling Climate Change in the US”, Solar Today, March, 2007

California Story

California Energy Efficiency = 1 Billion Cars

US Energy Efficiency = 77% of Demand for New Energy Services

But We Have to Move Even Faster…

Energy Efficient Buildings Initiatives

American Institute of Architects (AIA) Sustainability 2030• 50% CO2 reduction in new buildings by 2010• Additional 10% energy 5 years until zero C02 by 2030.• Renovate new buildings for 50% CO2 reduction

U.S. Green Building Council LEED Certification:• 50% reduction in site energy use for base LEED • 65% Silver• 80% Gold• 100% Platinum

ASHRAE • Standard 90.1-2010: 30% less energy than 90.1-2004• Standard 90.1-2020: guidance for net zero site energy use

U.S. Department of Energy• All commercial buildings are net zero energy by 2025

University of Dayton: Renewable and Clean Energy

Program

Energy Efficiency• Energy Efficient Buildings• Energy Efficient Manufacturing• Ground Source Heat Pumps• Design of Thermal Systems• Building Energy Informatics

Renewable Energy• Renewable Energy Systems• Solar Energy Engineering• Wind Energy Engineering• Environmental Sustainability

Same Week as “Deep Horizon” Sank

U.S. approves first off-shore wind farm off Cape Cod

Virginia off-shore wind resource could power 750,000 homes, forever

Source: Audubon, 10-11/2010

In Fact:

Atlantic off-shore wind potential = 70% of U.S. electricity

North Dakota is “Saudi Arabia” of wind

10 automakers launch plug-in hybrids by 2012

Source: www.greenzer.com

“Our Choice”

Doing the Math: World

C = Pop x $/Pop x E/$ x C/E

Business as usual case 2000-2050• Pop increases by 1.5x• $/Pop increases by 4x• E/$ constant• C/E constant• C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 6 C2000

Carbon stabilization case • C2050 = 1.5 Pop x 4 $/Pop x (E/$) / 3 x (C/E) / 2 = C2000• 3x improvement in energy efficiency• 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy

50% carbon reduction case • 6x improvement in energy efficiency• 2x reduction in carbon intensity of energy

EEB Course Goals

Learn how to design buildings that are:• Functional (traditional engineering course)• Economic (better engineering course)• Improve comfort / productivity

(enlightened engineering course)• E/3 (our course)

Thank you!

EXTRA SLIDES

What to do?

Addressing these global problems of resource and environmental constraints on the foundation of our modern economy will no doubt require:

• Social reform • Economic reform• Political reform• Technological innovation

Doing the Math: US

C = Pop x $/Pop x C/$ x E/$ x C/E Business as usual case 2000-2050

• Pop grows at 1% from 275M to 450M is increase of 1.6• $/Pop grows at 2% is increase of 2.7• E/$ constant• C/E constant• C2050 = 1.6 Pop x 2.7 $/Pop x E/$ x C/E = 4.3 C2000

Carbon stabilization case: C2050 = 0.5 C2000• C2050 = 1.6 Pop x 2.7 $/Pop x (E/$) / 4.3 x (C/E) / 2 = 0.5

C2000

Continued development requires:• Factor 4 increase in energy efficiency• Factor 2 reduction in carbon intensity of energy

Stabilization Wedges Atmospheric CO2 concentration

• Pre-industrial = 280 ppm• Current = 380 ppm• Best case target = stabilize at 500 ppm in 2050

(1 C above 2000 temperature)

Stabilizing at 500 ppm by 2050:• World: C emissions constant at 7 GtC/yr (BAU = 14

GtC/yr)• US: C emissions reduced 50% to 0.7 GtC/yr (BAU = 2.7

GtC/yr)

Possible by realizing “wedges”

World Carbon Stabilization Scenario

Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September, 2006

Energy Resources Becoming Increasingly Scarce

Fossil Fuel Resources

Economy

Fossil Fuel

Energy

Linear Model of Production

Cost of Electricity Resources

0

1

2

3

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EnergyEfficiency

PulverizedCoal

Coal IGCC Nuclear Nat. GasCombined

Cycle

Biomass Wind

Le

ve

lize

d C

os

t o

f E

lec

tric

ity

(c

en

ts/k

Wh

)

w/o carbon w/ $20/ton carbon

Source: Elliott, R.N., “America’s Energy Straightjacket”, ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency, 2007.

U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost

Source: Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March

Remarkably

Energy Efficiency• Increases business competitiveness• Increase resource availability• Increases environmental health

Energy Efficiency isTHE PATH TO THE NEW ENERGY EFFICIENT

ECONOMY

Government Programs

U.S. Department of Energy• Energy audits

Whole plant energy audits by universities for mid-sized manufacturers

Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump energy audits for large manufactures

• Energy system software and best practice case studies

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency• E3 energy, waste and productivity audits

Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020• DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient

equipment and retrofits.

International Standards

ISO Standards• 9001 Quality• 14001 Environment• 50001 Energy

Requires energy management personnel and organizations within a company to determine baseline energy use, determine energy efficiency targets, identify and implement energy efficiency opportunities, measure effectiveness of energy efficiency improvements.

Cost of Energy Efficiency

“25% of total electricity usage can be saved cost effectively, at an average of 3 cents or less per kWh.”

“New generation sources cost 5 cents or more per kWh, making efficiency the lowest cost electricity resource”

Source: American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy

Cost of Energy Efficiency

"Energy efficiency is … the cheapest and most efficient way to reduce emissions by the United States”

“Policymakers worldwide should make efficiency central to their efforts to reduce the emission and harmful impact of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.”

Source: “For Now, at Least, Efficiency May Be the Best Tool for Reducing Carbon Emissions, Experts Say”, American Association for Advancement of Science, 1/2010

U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr at Negative Cost

Miller, P., 2000, “Saving Energy It Starts at Home”, National Geographic, March

How it Started

1976 SDGE wants to build new nuclear plant to bridge gap between expected demand and supply

Art Rosenfeld tells Gov. Brown that energy efficiency standards on household refrigerators will save more energy than nuclear plant will generate.

California embarks on energy-efficiency path

California Today

Per capita energy use fourth lowest Emits half CO2 per $ as rest of U.S. Generates most renewable

electricity Most patents and most capital

invested in “cleantech” companies

Denmark Story

1973 99% of energy imported 80% of economy is agricultural

2009 Low-carbon energy-efficiency green-job economy Control world wind turbine market 17% of energy from renewable energy Net energy exporter Meet Kyoto CO2 standards 3.7% unemployment Trade and fiscal surplus

Source: Arne Petersen, Ambassador of Denmark,Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy, 10/2009

United Kingdom Story

• Implemented Regulatory framework Incentives and penalties 7 fold increase in renewable energy

• “Want to be first movers..”• “Market is colossal”

Ultra low-carbon and electric vehicles Carbon capture and storage for all new plants by 2020.

• “Can and will be no return to high-carbon low-cost energy economy”

• “Utterly confident that we will achieve 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.”

• “Stabilize bills by increasing efficiency while prices rise”

Source: Joan Ruddock, Energy Minister, United Kingdom,Midwest Governor’s Association Forum on Jobs and Energy,

10/2009

The US Story?