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Callum Whyte*, Fiona Culhane*, Teresa Fernandes*,
Paul Tett*, Branka Valcic+, Tavis Potts+
SSA07SSA07 -- The Clyde Sea: A ModellersThe Clyde Sea: A Modellers
PerspectivePerspective
*Edinburgh Napier University, + Scottish Association for Marine Science
Callum WhyteCallum Whyte
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IntroductionIntroduction
Coastal ZoneCoastal Zone
Issues oftenIssues often
include a highinclude a high
degree of socialdegree of socialcomplexitycomplexity
ConflictConflict
resolutionresolutionConsensusConsensus
BuildingBuilding
No rightNo right
or wrongor wrong
answeranswer
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Clyde SeaClyde Sea
Cork HarbourCork HarbourOder estuaryOder estuary
HimmerfjardenHimmerfjarden
LimfjordenLimfjorden
SonderledSonderled
Gulf of RigaGulf of Riga
Gulf of GdanskGulf of GdanskVenice LagoonVenice Lagoon
ThermaikosThermaikos GulfGulf
Guadiana EstuaryGuadiana Estuary
PertuisPertuis CharentaisCharentais
Scheldt DeltaScheldt DeltaThauThau LagoonLagoon
TarantaTaranta MareMare PiccaloPiccalo
Barcelona CoastBarcelona Coast
IzmitIzmit BayBay
Danube DeltaDanube Delta
SPICOSAStudy SitesSPICOSAStudy Sites
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Clyde SeaClyde Sea
Cork HarbourCork HarbourOder estuaryOder estuary
HimmerfjardenHimmerfjarden
LimfjordenLimfjorden
SonderledSonderled
Gulf of RigaGulf of Riga
Gulf of GdanskGulf of GdanskVenice LagoonVenice Lagoon
ThermaikosThermaikos GulfGulf
Guadiana EstuaryGuadiana Estuary
PertuisPertuis CharentaisCharentais
Scheldt DeltaScheldt DeltaThauThau LagoonLagoon
TarantaTaranta MareMare PiccaloPiccalo
Barcelona CoastBarcelona Coast
IzmitIzmit BayBay
Danube DeltaDanube Delta
SPICOSAStudy SitesSPICOSAStudy Sites
Loch FyneLoch FyneFirth of ClydeFirth of Clyde
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Firth of Clyde Study SiteFirth of Clyde Study Site
Courtesy tfiDonnie@Flikr
Courtesy Andy Brockhurst @Flikr
Loch Fyne
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Study SitesStudy Sites
Loch Fyne
Loch Creran
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SocietalSocietal
LearningLearning ChangeChange
inin
PolicyPolicy
ChangeChange
in H manin H mancti itiecti itie
Change inChange in
U erU er
Relation hipRelation hip
Change inChange inP blicP blic
warenewarene
Change inChange in
Eco y temEco y tem
InstitutionalChange ESE Assessment
TheThe Spico aSpico a LoopLoop
ESEEconomyEconomyEn ironmentEn ironment
SocietySociety
ESE pproachESE pproach
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Policy issuePolicy issue
The Scottish Government proposed aThe Scottish Government proposed a
50%50% -- 100% increase in leisure boating100% increase in leisure boating
and step ashore sites in the Firth of Clydeand step ashore sites in the Firth of Clyde
Accompanied by an increase inAccompanied by an increase in
aquacultureaquaculture
Photo courtesy:
arcadeus_ex's
@ Flikr
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Focus GroupFocus GroupStakeholdersStakeholders
Firth of Clyde Scottish sustainable MarineFirth of Clyde Scottish sustainable Marine
Environment InitiativeEnvironment Initiative
Argyll and Bute CouncilArgyll and Bute Council
Scottish Environment Protection AgencyScottish Environment Protection Agency
The Clyde forumThe Clyde forum
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Conceptual modelsConceptual models
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Conceptual modelsConceptual models
BoundaryBoundary
conditionsconditions
SeaSea
NutrientsNutrients
ChlorophyllChlorophyll
concentrationconcentration
FreshwaterFreshwater
inflow: rivers,inflow: rivers,runoffrunoff
LightLight
MarinaMarina
No of YachtsNo of YachtsGenerates revenueGenerates revenue
Places pressure onPlaces pressure on
environmentenvironment
Phytoplankton in lochPhytoplankton in loch
If concentrations of antiIf concentrations of anti--foulantsfoulants exceed safeexceed safe
threshold growth will bethreshold growth will be
impededimpeded
AntiAnti--
foulantsfoulants
Mussel FarMussel FarReduction in foodReduction in food
may have amay have a
negative impact onnegative impact on
mussel growthmussel growth
Marina EconomicMarina Economic
ModelModel
Mussel farmMussel farm
Economic ModelEconomic Model
Lack ofLack of
foodfood
EconomyEconomy
ExchangeExchange
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Conceptual modelsConceptual models
BoundaryBoundary
ConditionsConditions
NutrientNutrient
concentrationconcentration
in seain sea
ChlorophyllChlorophyll
concentrationconcentration
LochLochNutrient concentrationNutrient concentration
Chlorophyll concentrationChlorophyll concentration
VolumeVolume
Inputs:Inputs: RiversRivers
Runoff, etcRunoff, etc
LossesLosses: Grazing,: Grazing,
Sinking,Sinking, LysisLysis
ExchangeExchange
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Mathematical modelsMathematical models
ExtendSim7ExtendSim7 Imagine that! Inc.Imagine that! Inc.
Tidal exchange ModelTidal exchange Model
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HorrendogramsHorrendograms
Conceptual ModelsConceptual Models
MathematicalMathematical
modelsmodels
StakeholdersStakeholdersStakeholdersStakeholders
Process of building a modelProcess of building a model collecting datacollecting data -- in itself gives ain itself gives a
better understanding of the systembetter understanding of the system
A Linear Process?A Linear Process?
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Stakeholders expressed a desire that the ModelsStakeholders expressed a desire that the Modelshad to be scientifically robusthad to be scientifically robust
Model was based on theModel was based on the dCSTTdCSTT assimilativeassimilative
capacity model (capacity model (laurentlaurent 2006) and a2006) and aBioenergeticBioenergetic Mussel growth model developed byMussel growth model developed by
Grant andGrant and BacherBacher (Grant and(Grant and BacherBacher 1998)1998)
Well validated predictive modelsWell validated predictive models
However their strength in terms ofHowever their strength in terms of
SPICOSA is their use as exploratory modelsSPICOSA is their use as exploratory models
Confidence?Confidence?
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Trust?Trust?
"it may not be possible to"it may not be possible to
determine the exact outcomedetermine the exact outcome
of certain actions but simplyof certain actions but simply
show that certain outcomesshow that certain outcomesmay be possible ...When thismay be possible ...When this
is the case uncertainty inis the case uncertainty in
some parts of the systemsome parts of the system
doesnt need to be accounteddoesnt need to be accountedfor but can be included as afor but can be included as a
range of scenariosrange of scenarios
((BrugnachBrugnach et al 2008).et al 2008).
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Trust?Trust?
Uncertainty is inherent inUncertainty is inherent in
the modelling process and itthe modelling process and it
is important to make thisis important to make this
clear to the stakeholdersclear to the stakeholders
Firth of Clyde study site incorporatedFirth of Clyde study site incorporated
uncertainty over the toxicity of antiuncertainty over the toxicity of antifouling compounds into the modelfouling compounds into the model
through the use of drop down buttonsthrough the use of drop down buttons
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SummarySummary
SPICOSA and its systems approach is wellSPICOSA and its systems approach is well
structured towards handling socially complexstructured towards handling socially complex
problemsproblems
While society is not necessarily modelled explicitlyWhile society is not necessarily modelled explicitly
it is included in the process through the iterativeit is included in the process through the iterative
development of conceptual modelsdevelopment of conceptual models
The actual process of trying to construct a modelThe actual process of trying to construct a model
of a system in itself yields valuable informationof a system in itself yields valuable information
about that systemabout that system
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Thank you!Thank you!
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A Syste s ApproachA Syste s Approach
SysteSyste
DesignDesign
SysteSyste
For ulationFor ulation
SysteSyste
AppraisalAppraisal
SysteSyste
OutputOutput
SysteSyste
DesignDesign
SysteSyste
For ulationFor ulation
SysteSyste
AppraisalAppraisal
SysteSyste
OutputOutput
Syste s DesignSyste s Design
Identify an Issue or proble inIdentify an Issue or proble in
the coastal zone.the coastal zone.
Create a conceptual odelCreate a conceptual odel consider ESE aspects of issueconsider ESE aspects of issue
Identify possible StakeholdersIdentify possible Stakeholders
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A system can be described as a group of parts or elements,A system can be described as a group of parts or elements,each with its own set of properties, lying within giveneach with its own set of properties, lying within given
boundaries which, interact.boundaries which, interact.
They may have emergent properties such as stabilizingThey may have emergent properties such as stabilizingfeedback loops.feedback loops.
Most systems are recursive, which is to say that they containMost systems are recursive, which is to say that they contain
subsystems, and so it is important to identify the correct scalesubsystems, and so it is important to identify the correct scale
on which to describe them.on which to describe them.
A Syste s ApproachA Syste s Approach
SysteSyste
DesignDesign
SysteSyste
For ulationFor ulation
SysteSyste
AppraisalAppraisal
SysteSyste
OutputOutput
SysteSyste
DesignDesign
SysteSyste
For ulationFor ulation
SysteSyste
AppraisalAppraisal
SysteSyste
OutputOutput
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A Syste s ApproachA Syste s Approach
SysteSyste
DesignDesign
SysteSyste
For ulationFor ulation
SysteSyste
AppraisalAppraisal
SysteSyste
OutputOutput
SysteSyste
DesignDesign
SysteSyste
For ulationFor ulation
SysteSyste
AppraisalAppraisal
SysteSyste
OutputOutput
Syste s For ulationSyste s For ulation
Quantify various processes,Quantify various processes,
interactions, andinteractions, andco ponents of conceptualco ponents of conceptual
odelodel
Start to build odelStart to build odel
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A Syste s ApproachA Syste s Approach
SysteSyste
DesignDesign
SysteSyste
For ulationFor ulation
SysteSyste
AppraisalAppraisal
SysteSyste
OutputOutput
SysteSyste
DesignDesign
SysteSyste
For ulationFor ulation
SysteSyste
AppraisalAppraisal
SysteSyste
OutputOutput
Syste s AppraisalSyste s Appraisal
Calibrate odel throughCalibrate odel through
hindcastinghindcasting/sensitivity analysis/sensitivity analysis
Si ulate and interpret odelSi ulate and interpret odel
response in ter s of CZ Issueresponse in ter s of CZ Issue
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A Syste s ApproachA Syste s Approach
SysteSyste
DesignDesign
SysteSyste
For ulationFor ulation
SysteSyste
AppraisalAppraisal
SysteSyste
OutputOutput
SysteSyste
DesignDesign
SysteSyste
For ulationFor ulation
SysteSyste
AppraisalAppraisal
SysteSyste
OutputOutput
Syste s OutputSyste s Output
Present Scientific results and odelsPresent Scientific results and odels
Present results to StakeholderPresent results to Stakeholder
Foru s/policy akersForu s/policy akers
Provide infor ation in Lay ter sProvide infor ation in Lay ter s
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StakeholdersStakeholders
Worried that anti foulant compoundsWorried that anti foulant compounds
could have detrimental affect oncould have detrimental affect on
phytoplanktonphytoplankton
Increase in faecal coliforms wouldIncrease in faecal coliforms wouldaffect water quality and have aaffect water quality and have a
detrimental effect on mussel farmersdetrimental effect on mussel farmers
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SkeletonemaSkeletonema spp.spp.
P
hotographed using a Carl ZeissA
xiovert 25and a Nikon D80
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SuccessionalSuccessional Change? BiomassChange? Biomass
ChlorophyllChlorophyll
ConcentrationsConcentrations
19731973--19821982
20082008--20092009
1970s1970s -- 40 g40 g chlchl/L 2008/L 2008--0909 -- 4 g4 g chlchl/L/L
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SuccessionalSuccessional Change? BiomassChange? Biomass
ChlorophyllChlorophyll
ConcentrationsConcentrations
19731973--19821982
20082008--20092009
Loch FyneLoch Fyne
Loch CreranLoch CreranLoch CreranLoch CreranLoch FyneLoch Fyne
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Loch Creran13 km long
1.5 km wide
Lynn of Lorn
S
hallow sills
To upper basin
Deep Areas
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Central GovernmentCentral Government
AgenciesAgencies
SEPASEPA
SNH etcSNH etc
ExternalExternal
sources/sinkssources/sinks
of moneyof money
LocalLocal
governmentgovernment
Jobs dependent onJobs dependent on
Marina/musselsMarina/mussels
Marina economicMarina economic
modelmodel
Mussel economicMussel economic
modelmodel
Sea boundarySea boundary
conditionsconditions
Other InputsOther Inputs
RiversRiversRun offRun off
etcetc
SunlighSunlight
Mussel growth modelMussel growth model
State variablesS
tate variablesMussel massMussel mass
Mussel numbersMussel numbers
Light ModelLight Model
AttenuationAttenuation
IrradianceIrradiance
State variablesState variables
CSTTCSTT
Phytoplankton/Phytoplankton/microplanktonmicroplankton
modelmodel
State variablesState variables
Chlorophyll concentrationChlorophyll concentration
Nutrient concentrationNutrient concentration
Anti fouling concentrationAnti fouling concentration
Yacht marinaYacht marina
No of boatsNo of boats
Antifouling fluxAntifouling fluxState variablesState variables
Mussel Economic modelMussel Economic model
State variablesState variables
Mussel massMussel mass
Mussel numbersMussel numbers
Conceptual modelsConceptual models
PARPAR
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Conceptual modelsConceptual models
Low salinity, low density water flowing seawardsLow salinity, low density water flowing seawards
Fjordic CirculationFjordic Circulation
Seawater moves inland atSeawater moves inland at
An Intermediate depthAn Intermediate depth
EntrainmentEntrainment
ShallowShallow
SillSill
IsohalineIsohaline
HigherHigher
densitydensityseawaterseawater
ShallowShallow
sillsill
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Mixing DepthMixing Depth
PhoticPhotic
ZoneZone
If mixing depthIf mixing depthwere to increasewere to increase
phytoplanktonphytoplankton
would spendwould spend
more time out ofmore time out of
photicphotic zonezone
MixingMixing
depthdepth
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Mixing DepthMixing Depth
Changes toChanges to
the mixingthe mixing
depth candepth can
affect theaffect the
amount ofamount of
timetime phytophyto--
planktersplankters
spend outspend out
of theof thephoticphotic zonezone
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Model calibrationModel calibration
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Sampling MethodsSampling Methods
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Sampling MethodsSampling Methods
Water samples collected fromWater samples collected from
shore and by boatshore and by boat weekly/biweekly/bi--
monthly and monthlymonthly and monthly
RVRV CalanusCalanus -- SAMSSAMS
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Sampling MethodsSampling Methods
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Fjordic CirculationFjordic Circulation
50 m50 m
18 Km18 Km
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Mathematical modelsMathematical models
ExtendSim7ExtendSim7 Imagine that! Inc.Imagine that! Inc.
NitratesNitrates
ChlorophyllChlorophyll
PhosphatesPhosphates
Silicates,Silicates,
antianti--foulants,foulants,etcetc
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Mathematical modelsMathematical models
ModelModel
calculating thecalculating the
growth ofgrowth of
phytoplanktonphytoplanktonadjusted foradjusted for
lightlight
attenuation inattenuation in
the waterthe water
column.column.
PossiblePossible
Generic blockGeneric block
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Mathematical modelsMathematical models
MAMPEC ModelMAMPEC ModelDelft hydraulicsDelft hydraulics
VrijeVrije UniversiteitUniversiteit ofof
AmsterdamAmsterdam
Calculating the predicted environ ental concentrations of antiCalculating the predicted environ ental concentrations of anti
foulants in arine environ entfoulants in arine environ ent
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Generic BlocksGeneric Blocks
title
ECO OGICA PROCESS I RARY
PEC/PNEC Decision Block
PNECInPNECIn
A>=B
A
B
Y
N
RQG
eate
an1O
tRQG
eate
an1O
t
RQLess
an1O
tRQLess
an1O
t
This bu
on can be cloned to the
model inter
ace ifrequired and
allows a level of safety or
uncertainty, between 10 and
100,000 to be selected
PEC = Predicted Environmental
Concentration of a pollutant
PNEC = Predicted No
(Toxicological) Effect Concentration
of the pollutant on a particular
organism If the calculated Risk Quotient
(RQ) is greaterthan orequal
to 1 this output will have the
value of1 Otherwise it will
output a value of zero.
If the calculated Risk Quotient
(RQ) is less than 1 this output will
have a value of1. Otherwise it will
output a value of zero.
y=f(x)
PECInPECIn
Uncertainty factor-10
Model block function
This block allows the predicted environmental concentration of a given pollutant to be compared with a predicted no (toxicological) effect
concentration for that pollutant and is determined by a risk quotient (RQ). If the RQ is greater than or equal to 1 then that concentration is
considered to have adverse effects on the environment. The block has inputs for the PEC and the PNEC of a pollutant and contains a pop up
button that allows the PNEC of a substance to be divided by a safety or uncertainty factor. this factor can be chosen by the user. the button
can be easily cloned to the models user interface. The block has two outputs. If the calculated Risk Quotient (RQ) is greater than or equal to
1 the output labelled "RQ greater than 1 out" will have the value of 1. Otherwise it will output a value of zero. If the calculated Risk Quotient
(RQ) is less than 1 then the output labelled "RQ Less than 1 out" will have a value of 1. Otherwise it will output a value of zero. These
outputs when connected to a model can, for example, be used to trigger different pathways in the model dependent on the results
obtained.............................................................
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Regular water samples taken from both LochRegular water samples taken from both Loch CreranCreran and Lochand Loch FyneFyne
AnalysedAnalysed for:for:
Chlorophyll,Chlorophyll,
PhytoplanktonPhytoplankton numbers,numbers,
Nutrients,Nutrients,
Salinity,Salinity,
pH,pH,
Light attenuationLight attenuation
MethodsMethods
MonthlyMonthly
transects oftransects of
the Lynn ofthe Lynn of
LornLorn and Lochand Loch
CreranCreran
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Transects of Lynn ofTransects of Lynn of LornLorn and Lochand Loch CreranCreran
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CTDCTD
measurementsofmeasurementsof
density, oxygen anddensity, oxygen andfluorescence in thefluorescence in the
Lynn of Lorne andLynn of Lorne and
LochLoch CreranCreran havehave
been taken monthlybeen taken monthly
during 2009.during 2009.
FluorescenceFluorescence
Mixing LayerMixing Layer
SratificationSratification
Contours created inContours created in
Surfer usingSurfer using krigingkriging
as the interpolationas the interpolationalgorithalgorith and anand an
anisotropic ratio ofanisotropic ratio of
2.52.5
6.
06.20
6.
0
6.40
6.
0
6.60
6.
0
6. 0
6.90
.00
. 0
.20
.
0
.40
.
0
.60
. 0
.
0
.90
.00
. 0
2.00
xygen (mg/l) uncalibrated 09 July 2009 Loch Creran2 .00
2 . 0
2 .60
2 .90
22.20
22. 0
22. 0
2 . 0
2 .40
2 . 0
24.00
24. 0
24.60
24.90
2 .20
.00
Density 09 July 2009 Loch Creran
Fluorescence 09 July 2009
Contour PlotsContour Plots
50m50m
18 km18 km
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Model calibrationModel calibration
Loch Fyne
Loch Creran
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Model calibrationModel calibration
Loch Fyne
Loch Creran
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Model calibrationModel calibration
Sensitivity analysisSensitivity analysis
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Model InterfaceModel Interface
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1975 Observations1975 Observations
ModelledModelled
2008 Observations2008 Observations
Silicate not included in Model
Silicate included in Model
Chlorophyll concentrations in Loch CreranChlorophyll concentrations in Loch Creran
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Model run withModel run with
silicate included,silicate included, = 0.5= 0.5
Model run withModel run with
out silicate,out silicate,
= 0.5= 0.5
1975 observations1975 observations
Modelled resultsModelled results
2008 observations2008 observations
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Silicate?Silicate?Silicate?Silicate?
Alginate factory atAlginate factory at
barcaldinebarcaldine
KelcoKelco processed 80processed 80--
100,000 tonnes of100,000 tonnes of
wet Kelp per yearwet Kelp per yearsplit between Girvansplit between Girvan
and Barcaldineand Barcaldine
3500 tonnes of3500 tonnes of
effluent/yeareffluent/year
800 tonnes dissolved800 tonnes dissolved
in fresh waterin fresh water1g of wet weight Kelp1g of wet weight Kelp
contains 0.35 molescontains 0.35 moles
silicatesilicate
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Heterotrophic fractionHeterotrophic fraction --
Model results combined withModel results combined with
observational data suggests that thereobservational data suggests that there
has been a change in the abundancehas been a change in the abundance
ofof heterotrophsheterotrophs particularly in theparticularly in the
early part of the yearearly part of the year
Eta (Eta () introduces some ecology) introduces some ecology
into the model. It allows for changesinto the model. It allows for changes
in the ratio ofin the ratio of photoautotrophsphotoautotrophs toto
heterotrophsheterotrophs in the systemin the system
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SummarySummary
SPICOSASPICOSA an integrated systems approach to coastalan integrated systems approach to coastal
management taking into account the ecological, social andmanagement taking into account the ecological, social and
economic aspects of a systemeconomic aspects of a system
Aims to produce methodologies and tools which will aidAims to produce methodologies and tools which will aidcoastal managerscoastal managers
Generic blocks willGeneric blocks will in theory, allow a system to bein theory, allow a system to be
modelled relatively quickly and easilymodelled relatively quickly and easily
Experiences gained from the varied study sites willExperiences gained from the varied study sites will
contribute to a large information base which will outlive thecontribute to a large information base which will outlive the
projectproject
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Callum Whyte*, Fiona Culhane*, Teresa Fernandes*,
Paul Tett*, Branka Valcic+, Tavis Potts+
The Clyde Sea: The Effect of increasedThe Clyde Sea: The Effect of increased
Leisure Boating on Local Shellfish Far ingLeisure Boating on Local Shellfish Far ing
*
Edinburgh Napier University,+
Scottish Association for Marine Science
Callum WhyteCallum Whyte
[email protected]@napier.ac.uk
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Conceptual modelsConceptual models
Link toLink to
PhytoplanktonPhytoplankton
growth modelgrowth model
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Mussel Growth
Number of Mussels Mussel Economy
Particulate Organic Matter
y=f(x)
detrital
POM
Tissue C mass per
mussel
Number of
mussels
detrital POM
ingestion
detrital POM
ingestion
V
detrital
POM
detritus POC per POM
detritus POC per POM
Number of
mussels
Phytoplankton
ingestion
V
Phyto C:Chl
Number of
mussels
Phytoplankton
ingestion
Phyto C:Chl
Number of
mussels
Rejection
detrital
POM
Number mussels
harvested per day
Rejection
Tissue C mass per
mussel
Number mussels
harvested per day
DischargeInDischargeIn
JOBSOUTJOBSOUT
ExchangeInExchangeIn
Volume2InVolume2In
PGrazingOutPGrazingOut
PhytoplanktonInPhytoplanktonIn
MONEYTOLOCALECONOMYOUTMONEYTOLOCALECONOMYOUT
FARMPROFITOUTFARMPROFITOUT
Tissue C mass per
mussel
MUSSEL
GROWTH
MUSSEL
FARM
MUSSEL
ECONOMICS
MUSSEL
GRAZING
PARTICULATE
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