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Wind Energy, A Route to a Low Carbon Future N. Keith Tovey, M.A., Phd. CEng, MICE Energy Science Director Low Carbon Innovation Centre School of Environmental Sciences

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The Potential of Wind Energy Barriers to Wind Energy: Issues to be addressed Environmental Issues The Social Dimension Hard Choices Ahead Intermittency Conclusions Wind Energy - A Route to a Low Carbon Future

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Wind Map of Western Europe: wind resource at 50m above surface Sheltered Open Coast Open sea Hills Courtesy Dr J. Palutikof

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Swaffham Ecotech wind turbine Electricity per annum 3.9 GWh Annual homes equivalent 938 Displacement pa: CO 2 3000 tonnes SO 2 39 tonnes NO x 3 tonnes 67m 66m

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Power in the wind Kinetic Energy in Wind = where = air density R = blade radius V = Wind Velocity. Because wind cannot come to standstill, only 59.26% is actually available - The Betz Efficiency Cut in speeds Cut out speeds Rated Output

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Annual output depends of wind speed distribution Using a typical Wind Speed distribution gives a load factor of around 30% ~ 70 - 80% for fossil fuel stations and nuclear. Actual load factor does depend on Wind Speed Distribution Curve Turbine Rating Curve Prevailing Wind direction can vary significantly as shown by the two rosette plots from stations 150 km apart.

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Distribution of Wind Energy Projects in UK 90 Separate Projects 1125 Wind Turbines 772.4 MW installed capacity ~2000 GWH production. ~950 000 tonnes CO 2 saved

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Distribution of Wind Energy Projects in UK New Projects in 2004

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Round 1 and Round 2 Offshore Licences North Hoyle Scroby Sands

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Scenario 2010 A has high development of Onshore Wind in Scotland Scenario 2010 B has high development of Offshore Wind in England Wind Energy Projections: Carbon Trust - April 2004 To meet targets: Installation rate to 2010 Scenario A: 2.97 turbines/day Scenario B: 2.77 turbines/day Installation rate: 2010 - 2020 1.04 turbines/day

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Wind Energy - A Route to a Low Carbon Future Significant Distributed Network Upgrading needed With planned increase in generation in Scotland, significant transmission and distributed network issues will arise. e.g. the need for 1 additional double circuit interconnector by 2010 and a further one by 2020. Network Constraints

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The Potential of Wind Energy Barriers to Wind Energy: Issues to be addressed Technical Issues (Network Constraints) Environmental Issues The Social Dimension Hard Choices Ahead Intermittency Conclusions Wind Energy - A Route to a Low Carbon Future

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Distraction to drivers Danger to birds Noise - mechanical, aerodynamic, ..infra-sound? Danger of ice throw Blade failure Key Environmental Issues - some of main issues against Flickering Radio/Television/Radar Interference Intermittency Aesthetics

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Radio/Television/Radar Interference Civil Aviation can cope with planned development MOD have concerns about radar interference. Flickering can be an issue for 5 - 10 minutes for 2 - 3 days a year if it is sunny at the time Aesthetics Intermittency Key Environmental Issues - some of main issues against Social Attitudes can be significant

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The Potential of Wind Energy Barriers to Wind Energy: Issues to be addressed Technical Issues (Network Constraints) Environmental Issues The Social Dimension Hard Choices Ahead Intermittency Conclusions Wind Energy - A Route to a Low Carbon Future

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Government Response to Global Warming Energy White Paper aspiration for 60% cut in CO 2 emissions by 2050 Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s ( but no indication of how this will be undertaken) There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid. - Energy White Paper: February 2003

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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO 2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 4 million each year for Norfolk On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO 2 each year. The Right Language

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The Potential of Wind Energy Barriers to Wind Energy: Issues to be addressed Technical Issues (Network Constraints) Environmental Issues The Social Dimension Hard Choices Ahead Intermittency Conclusions Wind Energy - A Route to a Low Carbon Future

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Difficult Choices Ahead

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

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Transport Fuels: Biodiesel? Bioethanol?

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

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Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

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Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

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Our Choices: They are difficult A diverse supply of renewables across the country will provide security. A diverse renewable supply will be local less prone to cascade power cuts Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 660 MW Failure of one of these requires much greater backup Localised generation reduces transmission/distribution losses BUT: Arent Renewables unreliable? we need secure supply

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V3V3

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View from across Broad - Viewpoint 2

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Emphasised turbines from Broad

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View from View point 1

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View from approach from Earlham Road - Viewpoint 3

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View from Yare Valley Drive Turbines will be off to left and unlikely to be visible

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Reduction in CO 2 emissions (yr -1 ) Each 1.5MW turbine: 1800 tonnes (1000 balloons) avge. mix of generation 3900 tonnes (2167 balloons) coal generation Each turbine will provide electricity for 1000 homes (e.g. whole of Cringleford). Or - both turbines would make UEAs consumption of electricity carbon- neutral. Each Turbine will save as much carbon dioxide as persuading 12500 people to drive 500 miles less each year.

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Perception Survey done in June 2003 in Swaffham Before construction of 1st Turbine After construction of Turbine Reasons for Choice

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Whilst the wind turbine is considered 'ugly' by some residents of Swaffham, most consider it a unique landmark and see it as an asset to the town. Most of the local population are proud of the turbine and it seems to have had a positive impact on the town in a number of ways. I do believe that were it not for the number of visitors to Swaffham, coming to see the turbine for whatever reason, we would not have such a high influx of buyers from out of the area. This has increased house prices, and the prosperity of the area.

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The Potential of Wind Energy Barriers to Wind Energy: Issues to be addressed Technical Issues (Network Constraints) Environmental Issues The Social Dimension Hard Choices Ahead Intermittency Conclusions Wind Energy - A Route to a Low Carbon Future

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Maximum power swing on a small farm (5 MW) 90% of maximum output in one half hour in a year 21% of time swing is less than 2% Moderate 1860 MW distributed turbines in Western Denmark Maximum power swing is 18% in any half hour period for 47% of time swing is less than 2%. Key Environmental Issues - Intermittency 1

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Data from Carbon Trust Report Farmer prediction done in 1980 Key Environmental Issues - Intermittency 2 Carbon Trust Report states no problem for 2010 need 7% of 3000 MW (wind) = ~200 MW of thermal reserve but wind capacity in 2010 projected to be ~ 10000 MW >>>>> ~ 700 MW reserve NGT see no problem ~ cf Sizewell B - 1188 MW

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Key Environmental Issues - Intermittency 3 Demand fluctuations are such that spinning reserve is needed ~ 2000 MW Since NETA, some generating sets are deliberately run below maximum to provide Balancing Mechanism facilities e.g. 400 MW as opposed to 500 MW There would be a small extension to this for 2010 scenarios ~ 200 MW for 50% of time and 700 MW for 50%. Changes in demand over 12 hour period are much greater than even full loss of all wind. Problem is short term fluctuations 0 - 6 hours What would happen in practice for 50% of time, 2 generating sets would run at say 400 instead of 500 MW for remainder, around 7 sets would be needed at 400 MW.

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Key Environmental Issues - Intermittency 4 Efficiency of those generating sets would drop slightly if coal say 36 - 34% > slight increase in carbon dioxide 2010 Scenarios would see an extra 828 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emitted if the spinning reserve were only coal. Or around 430 000 tonnes with normal mix of plant Land based wind is embedded - avoids the 8% transmission losses Assume England and Wales embedded and 25% of Scotland - saving of 390 000 tonnes Net extra for reserve - 438 000 tonnes (coal) but saving from wind generation is 13, 140 000 tonnes or each unit of wind has associated 8 gm (gas) - 16 gm (coal) cf gas 430 gms, coal ~ 1000 gms

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The Potential of Wind Energy Barriers to Wind Energy: Issues to be addressed Environmental Issues The Social Dimension Hard Choices Ahead Intermittency Conclusions Wind Energy - A Route to a Low Carbon Future

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Assumptions: 20% renewable generation by 2020, Demand stabilizes at 420 TWH in 7 years Electricity Scenarios for UK and implications on CO 2 emissions. Gas Scenario Nuclear Scenario Coal Scenario Variable Scenario: 40% Gas; 20% Nuclear 60% reduction 20% reduction 20 year growth in demand 1.8-2% per annum 2.2% in 2003

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The WindSave Device 1 kW peak ~ 1200 kWh per annum cf 3400 kWh typical household consumption

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Wind Energy has matured in the last decade. Significant developments both onshore and offshore are likely in next decade if UK is to meet its targets. There are some Network Constraint issues which need resolving. Concerns over intermittency are not relevant to the proposed developments for the foreseeable future. Spinning reserve only results in small amounts of CO 2. Conclusions Combating Climate Change will also provide Energy Security

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Wind Energy - A Route to a Low Carbon Future

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Would you oppose further development in this area or an urban area? 62% of people said they would be more in favour if the community were directly involved and had a direct benefit. The responses to different benefits are shown above.

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Swaffham - Attitudes to Wind Turbine with distance of house from turbine A few houses on Colney Lane ~ 500m Most houses in Cringleford are > 900m