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WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and...

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WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference 10 March 2015
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Page 1: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

WISKIOpen Water and Ice

Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng.River Forecast SectionEnvironment and Sustainable Resource Development

WISKI

ESRD Users Conference

10 March 2015

Page 2: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Outline

• Open water season• Data• Daily Scans• Forecasting Tools

• Ice season• Freeze-up• Breakup• Gauge height versus discharge relationship• Effects on gauge operation

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Page 3: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

WISKI – Time Series Data

Generally we are looking at the following time series

O. = original data (direct form Collect or logger input, not editable)

V. = validated data (where WISKI validators / correctors are applied)

P. = production data (where data can be manually edited)

C. = computed data (e.g., corrected water levels; flows; etc.)

A. = aggregated data (i.e., hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly)

S. = statistics (e.g., percentiles, historical means, percent normal, etc.)

F. = model flow results AND flows converted to water level (flows are written into database by the model, database computes water levels)

X. = water level thresholds

Techs

Forecaster General

Forecaster Events

Page 4: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Forecasting Daily DutiesDaily Scan – Reports

WISKI Reports

Page 5: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Forecasting Daily DutiesDaily Scan – Dashboard

Page 6: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Forecasting Models

• Forecast 146 locations in the province

• Pull 15 min data from WISKI• Run on an hourly time step• Route inflow through

reservoirs• Write flow back into WISKI to

back compute field water levels (removes gauge corrections)

Page 7: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Forecasting Water Supply Tools

Snow Survey and Ranking Reports

Snow/Precip Summary for Water Supply Regression Models

Page 8: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Flood Notification Update

Flood Frequency Work and Advanced Graphing

• Using advanced graphing to pull Annual Max Daily Q daily from A. DayMean-NRT as WSC data set on datamart not complete

• Using Flood Frequency analysis of extreme events to generate freq analysis for ops room use only

Page 9: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

WISKI Flood Notification Update

SKED and Rating Curves• Updating FNM rating curve

tables

• Assessing the changing capacity of the rivers over time (ie Oldman at Lethbridge is gradually losing capacity)

Page 10: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Ice Season

•Alberta is a cold climate•Edmonton

•Average <0°C Nov. to Mar.•Daily Minimum <0°C Oct. to Apr.•Recorded Minimum <0°C All months

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Page 11: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Ice Season

•Varies by•North to south•Mountains to prairies•Higher to lower elevations•Smaller stream to larger streams

•Ice affects gauge height•Ice affects equipment•Causes flooding

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Page 12: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Ice Season

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Ice season

Page 13: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Ice Season

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Freeze-up Break up

Page 14: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Ice Cover Progression

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Page 15: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Alarms

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Page 16: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Alarms

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Daily Status Email for 172 ice, open water and rainfall intensity alarms

Alarms goto duty phones via duty emails

Page 17: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Remote Camera

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Page 18: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Gauge Height vs. Discharge Relationship

•Ice affects gauge height•Discharge relationship not valid with ice•Ice changes•Hydraulic smoothing•Ice production takes water out (into storage)•Ice melting releases water (out of storage)

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Page 19: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Gauge Height vs. Discharge Relationship

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Page 20: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Gauge Operation

•Ice affects equipment•Orifice blockages•Orifice movements

•Leaks

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Page 21: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Gauge Operation - Blockage

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Page 22: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Gauge Operation – Orifice movement

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Page 23: WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

Gauge Operation – Temperature effects, Leaks

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