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Page 1: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest
Page 2: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest
Page 3: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Second largest cement

market

• With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

cement producer in the world. By 2020, cement production will reach to 550 million tonnes

Dominated by private

players

• Of the total capacity, 98 per cent lies with the private sector and the rest with public sector,

with the top 20 companies accounting for around 70 per cent of the total production

Higher share of large

plants

• 188 large cement plants together account for 97 per cent of the total installed capacity,

while 365 small plants account for the rest

Large concentration in

South and West

• Of the total 188 large cement plants in India, 77 are located in the states of Andhra

Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu

Source: Planning Commission, Aranca Research,

Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division)

Page 4: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest
Page 5: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Growing demand

Source: Edelweiss,

Notes: FY20E – Estimated market size for 2020

^Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division), * December 2014

Robust demand

• Robust infrastructure growth during 12th Five Year Plan to drive growth

• Demand is expected to be boosted by growth in real estate sector, initiative to build 100 smart cities to give a further stimulus

Long-term potential

• Oligopoly market, where large players have partial pricing control

• Low threat from substitutes

Attractive opportunities

• The North-East, which is witnessing a construction boom, offers attractive investment opportunities

• Large planned investments in infrastructure and housing is likely to boost demand for cement in the coming years as well

Increasing investments

• Robust investments are being made by the existing players to expand their capacity

• Increasing presence of Tier II cement players

• Use of alternate fuels to lower production costs and emissions

FY15*

Production

capacity:

366 million

tonnes^

FY20E

Production

capacity:

550 million

tonnes

Advantage

India

Page 6: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest
Page 7: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Source: Cement Manufacturers‘ Association (CMA), Planning Commission, Aranca Research

Notes: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum, mt – Million Tonnes

^Planning Commission estimates, **December 2014

Cement industry

(FY15**)

Mini and white cement plants Large cement plants

• Cement plants: 188

• Installed capacity: 366 mtpa^

• Cement production: 223.7mt (April

2014-January 2015)

• Cement plants: 365

• Installed capacity: 11.1 mtpa

• Cement production: 6.0 mt*

Page 8: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Top cement producers in 2014,

(million tonnes)

Source: International Cement Review,

USGS Mineral Resources Report, Aranca Research

India is the 2nd largest cement producer as well as consumer in the world led by the enormous growth in the infrastructure

and construction sector for the last two decades

India is already the second largest producer of cement, accounting for around 7 per cent of world‘s output

Top cement consumers in 2012,

(million tonnes)

2,160

242 79 69 63 59 58 55 53 51

Chin

a

India

US

A

Bra

zil

Ru

ssia

Ira

n

Tu

rke

y

Indo

nesia

Sa

ud

i A

rab

ia

Eg

yp

t

2,500

280

83 72 71 70 66 57 50 56

Chin

a

India

US

A

Ira

n

Tu

rke

y

Bra

zil

Russia

Jap

an

Eg

yp

t

Indo

nesia

Page 9: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Per capita cement consumption in 2012 (kg)

Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research,

Ministry of External Affairs

(Investment and Technology Promotion Division)

Note: PPP – Purchase Power Parity

As India‘s current per capita consumption of cement is much lesser than the developed and other developing economies,

there is a significant business opportunity to cater the unmet and rising demand

In order to meet the rising demand, cement companies are expected to pent up production by around 56 MT in the next

three years

Cement intensity (grams per USD of PPP GDP)

Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research

1,683

1,581

911

770 744 616 546 330

329 232 202 191 129

Sa

ud

iA

rabia

Ch

ina

So

uth

Ko

rea

Ira

n

Tu

rke

y

Ma

laysia

Italy

Bra

zil

Jap

an

US

A

Indo

nesia

India

Pa

kis

tan

197

110 93

74 59 56 53 51 47 43 42 41 37

Chin

a

So

uth

Ko

rea

Tu

rke

y

Italy

Ira

n

Me

xic

o

Jap

an

Ma

laysia

India

Indo

nesia

Colo

mbia

Chile

Bra

zil

Page 10: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Production of cement (million tonnes)

Source: Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion

12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research

Cement production increased at a CAGR of 7.3 per cent to 256 million tonnes over FY07–14

As per the 12th Five Year Plan, production is expected to reach 407 million tonnes by FY17

Availability of fly-ash (from thermal power plants) and use of advance technology has increased production of blended cement

The environment-friendly blended cement is more cost-efficient to produce, as it requires lesser input of clinker and energy

11% 11% 8% 8% 7%

19% 26% 50%

67% 65%

70% 63%

42% 25% 28%

FY95 FY00 FY05 FY08 FY12

Portland Slag Portland Pozzolana Ordinary Portland

Share of blended cement in total cement

production has increased (%)

Source: Cement Vision 2025, CRISIL, AT. Kearney

156

168 182 207

229 247 251 256

332 368

407

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15E

FY

16E

FY

17E

CAGR: 10.1%

Page 11: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Domestic cement consumption (million tonnes)

Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research

Notes: E – Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate

Domestic cement consumption is expected to have reach

265 million tonnes in FY13 from 222 million tonnes in FY11

The consumption is further expected to increase at a CAGR

of 10.2 per cent during FY11-17 and reach 398 million

tonnes

Demand will be supported by infrastructure development in

tier 2 and tier 3 cities

The country‘s per capita consumption is around 190 kg,

which is lower than the World average which is around 500

Kg, providing further room for demand in the industry

222 242 265

293

324 359

398

FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

CAGR: 10.2%

Page 12: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Cement production capacity (million tonnes)

Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research

Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate

Cement production capacity reached 333 million tonnes in

FY14 from 323 million tonnes in FY11

Production capacity is expected to increase at a CAGR of

6.8 per cent during FY11-17 and reach 479 million tonnes

323

336

315

333

405

441

479

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

CAGR: 6.8%

Page 13: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Cement capacity (million tonnes) and

utilisation rate (%)

Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research

Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate

Cement capacity utilisation rate is expected to touch around

85 per cent in FY17 from 71 per cent in FY11

The utilisation rate is at 73 per cent in FY14

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Capacity -LHS Production-LHS Utilisation rate (%)

Page 14: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Source: Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion, Aranca Research

Currently, India has 188 large cement plants across states

and is among the top ten exporters both by value and

volume

Andhra Pradesh is the leading state with 40 large cement

plants, followed by Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan having 21

and 19 plants, respectively

Major cement clusters include - Satna (Madhya Pradesh),

Gulbarga (Karnataka), Yerranguntla (Andhra Pradesh),

Nalgonda (Andhra Pradesh) and Chandoria (Rajasthan)

37

19

21

11 12

11

10

10

11

5

5

4 8

3 3

5

3

2

2

1

1 1

31.2% 35.9% 41.4% 40.5% 39.6%

24.0% 22.7%

21.9% 21.6% 21.5%

14.6% 14.1% 12.2% 12.2% 13.4%

14.0% 12.5% 11.7% 12.8% 13.0%

16.2% 14.8% 12.9% 12.8% 12.5%

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12

South North East Central West

Regional share of total installed capacity (%)

Source: Cement Manufacturer‘s Association (CMA)

Page 15: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Source: Indian Minerals Year Book by Indian Bureau of Mines, Aranca Research

Notes: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum, FY14* - Data from Centrum Cement Report

Cement industry

South

North

East

West

Central

132.7 mtpa

80.3 mtpa

47.7 mtpa

54.8 mtpa

46.3 mtpa

Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka

Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and the NCR

West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and

Jharkhand

West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and

Jharkhand

Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh

Installed capacity (FY14)* Key markets

Page 16: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Shares in total capacity in Northern region

(2012)

Source: Indian Minerals Year Book by Indian Bureau of Mines, Aranca Research

Rajasthan has the highest installed capacity in North India, accounting for a 77.7 per cent share in capacity in the region in

2012

Chhattisgarh leads the Eastern region with a share of 35.5 per cent of total installed capacity in the region in 2012

Another factor that adds to the growth is the availability of coal and limestone in the concerned states

Shares in total capacity in Eastern region

(2012)

77.7%

5.6%

3.3%

5.7% 5.7%

1.0% 1.0%

Rajasthan

Himachal Pradesh

Punjab

Uttarakhand

Haryana

Jammu & Kashmir

Delhi

35.5%

20.4%

19.4%

14.6%

6.4% 3.0%

0.6%

Chhattisgarh

Jharkhand

Orissa

West Bengal

Meghalaya

Bihar

Assam

Page 17: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Shares in total capacity

in Southern region (2012)

Source: Indian Minerals Year Book by Indian Bureau of Mines, Aranca Research

Andhra Pradesh has the highest installed capacity in South India (48.9 per cent share of total installed capacity)

Madhya Pradesh leads the Central region in installed capacity, while Gujarat leads the Western region

Shares in total capacity

in Central region (2012)

Shares in total capacity

in Western region (2012)

48.9%

35.6%

14.8%

0.6%

Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu

Karnataka Kerala

29.5%

70.5%

Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh

61.3%

38.7%

Gujarat Maharashtra

Page 18: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

All India (million tonnes)

Total demand for cement is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.2 per cent to 265.9 million tonnes during FY08-13

Cement demand from the Eastern and Central regions during FY08-13 is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.5 per cent and

12.1 per cent, respectively.

Central (million tonnes) East (million tonnes)

163.4 177.5

196.4

210.2

236.3

265.9

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F

23.8

26.2

30.8

34.3

38.2

42.0

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F

24.7

28.0

33.0

37.3

41.7

46.6

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F

CAGR: 10.2% CAGR: 12.1% CAGR: 13.5%

Source: Cement Manufacturer's Association (CMA)

Page 19: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

32.7

34.5

38.8

41.4

45.4

49.8

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F

33.6

35.1

38.3

40.8

48.6

51.0

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F

48.6

53.8 55.5

56.4

62.1

63.9

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F

South (million tonnes)

Cement demand from Western, Northern and Southern regions is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.8, 8.7 and 5.6 per

cent, respectively, during FY08-13

North (million tonnes) West (million tonnes)

CAGR: 5.6% CAGR: 8.7% CAGR: 8.8%

Source: Cement Manufacturer's Association (CMA)

Page 20: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

All India

Source: Cement Manufacturer's Association (CMA)

UltraTech Cement, a major player in India, accounted for 15.0 per cent of the total market share in terms of installed

capacity in 2011

South East

10.2%

5.9%

9.9%

8.3%

7.1%

8.0%

50.6%

India Cement Madras Cement

Ultratech Cement Chettinad Cement

Dalmia Cement ACC

Others

14.2%

6.2%

12.1%

9.8%

5.5%

52.1%

Lafarge India ACC

Ultratech OCL India Ltd

Ambuja Cement Others

10.0%

7.5%

15.0%

1.4% 66.1%

Ambuja Cement ACC

Ultratech Cement Jaypee Cement

Others

Page 21: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

North

Jaypee Cement led the Central region in terms of installed capacity, with 33.5 per cent of the market share; the Western

region was dominated by UltraTech cement with 29.0 per cent of market share in 2011

Ambuja Cements accounted for 28.9 per cent of the total market share in terms of installed capacity in the Northern region

in 2011

Central West

28.9%

16.6%

14.2%

13.8%

11.1%

7.3%

5.5% 2.5%

Ambuja Cement Shree Cement

Others Ultratech Cement

J K Cement ACC

Jaypee Cement Birla Cement

33.5%

12.3%

12.1%

42.1%

Jaypee Cement Ultratech Cement

ACC Others

29.0%

10.9%

12.5%

47.6%

Ultratech Cement Jaypee Cement

Ambuja Cement Others

Source: Cement Manufacturer's Association (CMA)

Page 22: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Increasing presence of

small and mid-size

cement players

• Presence of small and mid-size cement players across regions is increasing, which helps

to diminish market concentration of industry leaders

• Small and mid-size players have been constantly increasing their installed capacity to

cater to increasing cement demand as increased needs of housing spurt demand

Cost reduction through

the use of alternate

fuels

• Major cement manufacturers in India are increasingly using alternate fuels, especially

bioenergy, to fire their kilns

• This is not only helping to reduce production costs of cement companies, but is also

proving effective in reducing emissions

Increasing sale of

blended cement

• The proportionate sales of blended varieties of cement—Portland Pozzolana Cement

(PPC) and Portland Blast Furnace Slag Cement (PBFC)—has risen over the years

• During FY13, blended cement accounted for 75 per cent of total cement production in the

country, compared to merely 24 per cent in FY01*

Note: * Source: Emkay Global Financial Services

Page 23: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

ACC

• The subsidiary of Holcim, has plans for a USD500 million capacity expansion in India

• ACC will upgrade and expand its Jamul unit in Chattisgarh and its grinding unit in

Jharkhand. This will increase ACC‘s capacity to 38 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) from

30 mtpa in a phased manner by 2016 and 55 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) in 2020

Ambuja Cements

• Ambuja Cements is targeting an investment of USD580 million for capacity expansion in

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh

• The proposed project in Rajasthan is expected to add 5 million tonnes (MT) to Ambuja

Cements‘ existing production capacity of 27.5 mtpa

Dalmia Cement

• Dalmia Cement is planning an investment of USD333.3 million to ramp up its

manufacturing capacity to 21 mtpa from the existing 17 mtpa over the next two years.

• Dalmia has plans to set up a 2.5 million tonne (MT) greenfield unit at Belgaum in

Karnataka. It also plans to scale up its two plants in North-East India for a total value of

USD239 million and USD9.2 million, respectively

Source: Aranca Research

Note: * - still waiting for approval from European Commission

Holcim

• In April 2014, Holcim, a Switzerland-based cement company, announced acquisition of

Lafarge to create the biggest cement group in the world*

• In India, Holcim‘s subsidaries (ACC and Ambuja Cements) have a combined capacity of

45 mtpa, while Lafarge has a capacity of 8 mtpa in the country

Page 24: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Heidelberg Cement

• Heidelberg Cement, a Germany-based cement manufacturer has commissioned Phase-I

of its Jhansi grinding unit

• The company has undertaken an investment worth USD259.4 million for expanding its

capacity to 2.9 million tonnes (MT)

• Heidelberg aims to ramp up the operational capacity to 6 MT at its Damoh plant in Madhya

Pradesh, striving to add an additional 9 MT by 2017

Vicat Group

• France-based, Vicat Group plans to invest USD600 million for 5.5 MT capacity by FY19

• It is negotiating an acquisition of uncontrolled 47 per cent stake in the joint venture Vicat

Sagar Cement (Chattrasal, Karnataka) for an enterprise value of about USD680 million

• The joint venture Vicat Sagar currently has 2.75 MT capacity

Amrit Cement

• Amrit Cement India Ltd (ACIL) has announced the launch of Amrit Cement in the North-

Eastern market

• The company plans to achieve a production level of 5 million tonnes per annum by 2015–

16 through capacity expansion in North-Eastern Bihar and Nepal

Source: Aranca Research

Page 25: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest
Page 26: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Source: Aranca Research

• High – Huge capital investments required

present substantial barriers to entry and

achieving economies of scale

• Moderate – Cement players have

to depend on the railways for

carriage outward and local coal

companies for fuel, although

diversification of freight options

and fuel sources is diminishing

the suppliers‘ power

• Low – Substantial market

concentration among large

players ensures low bargaining

power of buyers

• Low – Although there are

partial substitutes such as

asphalt, glass, steel, wood,

etc; practically cement has

no direct substitutes

• Low – The Indian cement market

is oligopolistic in nature,

characterised by tacit collusion,

where large players partially

control supply for better price

discipline

Positive

Neutral

Positive Positive

Positive

Market

attractiveness

Page 27: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest
Page 28: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Source: ^Livemint: ‗Cement firms scout for overseas mines to secure gypsum supplies‘

data sourced from Confederation of Indian Industry and AT Kearney;

**Cement Vision 2025, CRISIL, AT. Kearney

• Given the surplus capacity and long-gestation period for green-field expansion, companies

prefer inorganic route for growth

• Gives them access to newer markets, newer technology and skill set from new partners in

Indian context

• Because domestic supply of gypsum is limited, Indian cement companies are looking to

acquire gypsum mines in Thailand, Oman, Iran and other countries in close proximity to

India^

• The current domestic availability of gypsum can provide for the next seven-eight years of

demand^

• Companies are trying to develop a niche market for RMC (Ready Mix Concrete)

• Penetration of RMC has been low at about 8 per cent (USA: 88 per cent; China: 33 per

cent; Brazil: 32 per cent) because retail sales comprise mostly of bag cement**

Inorganic

growth/consolidation

Overseas expansion for

gypsum

Ready-mix concrete

Page 29: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest
Page 30: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Source: McKinsey Quarterly Report, Aranca Research, Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division)

Housing growth Infrastructure growth Commercial real estate growth

• The Housing segment accounts for a

major portion of the total domestic

demand for cement in India

• Real estate market is expected to

grow at a CAGR of 17.2 per cent over

2011–15 to USD126 billion

• Growing urbanisation, an increasing

number of households and higher

employment are primarily driving the

demand for housing, accounting for 67

per cent of the total consumption

• Initiatives by the government are

expected to provide an impetus to

construction activity in rural and semi-

urban areas through large

infrastructure and housing

development projects respectively

• The government is strongly focused

on infrastructure development to boost

economic growth and is aiming for 100

smart cities

• It plans to increase investment in

infrastructure to USD1 trillion in the

12th Five Year Plan (2012–17),

compared with USD514 billion under

the 11th Five Year Plan (2007–12)

• Infrastructure projects such as

Dedicated Freight Corridors as well as

new and upgraded airports and ports

are expected to further drive

construction activity,

• The government intends to expand the

capacity of the railways and the

facilities for handling and storage to

ease the transportation of cement and

reduce transportation costs

• The government is strongly focused

on infrastructure development to boost

economic growth

• It plans to increase investment in

infrastructure to USD1 trillion in the

12th Five Year Plan (2012–17),

compared with USD514 billion under

the 11th Five Year Plan (2007–12)

• Infrastructure projects such as

Dedicated Freight Corridors as well as

new and upgraded airports and ports

are expected to further drive

construction activity

• The government intends to expand the

capacity of the railways and the

facilities for handling and storage to

ease the transportation of cement and

reduce transportation costs

Page 31: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Major cement demand drivers (FY15*)

Source: Aranca Research, Ministry of External Affairs

(Investment and Technology Promotion Division),

^Cement Vision 2025, CRISIL, AT. Kearney

Note: * December 2014

Demand for cement is highly correlated with cyclical

activities like construction and development

Housing sector accounts for a significant 67 per cent of the

total cement demand (USA: 22 per cent; China: 25 per cent;

Brazil 56 per cent)^

Real estate market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.2

per cent during 2011–15 to USD126 billion

The rapidly increasing real estate industry in India is

expected to push the demand for cement

Residential real estate demand is driven by rising

population and growing urbanisation

Rising income levels are leading to higher demand

for luxury projects

Demand for affordable housing is growing in order to

meet the demand from lower income groups

Commercial real estate demand will be driven by growth in

IT/ITeS sector and organised retail

67%

13%

11%

9% Housing sector

Infrastructure

Commercial &Institutional

Industrial

Page 32: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Infrastructure spending as % of GDP

Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan

Note: Additional capacity creation estimates are based on increase in base lines, roads, housing and fiscal support

Investment in infrastructure is the main growth driver for the cement industry

The Planning Commission estimates total infrastructure spending to be about of 10 per cent of the GDP during the 12th Five-

Year Plan (2012–17), up from 7.6 per cent during the previous Five-Year Plan (2007–12)

India‘s investment in infrastructure is estimated to double to about USD1 trillion during the 12th plan (2012–17) compared to

the previous plan

Infrastructure spending in % during 11th

and 12th Five-Year Plan

75.7

69.4 89.5

101.6 101.9

157.4 181.2

206.0

233.5

264.4

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13E

FY

14E

FY

15E

FY

16E

FY

17E

5.2%

6.4%

7.2%

7.5%

7.9%

8.4%

7.6%

10.0%

10th Five year plan

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

11th Five year plan

12th Five year plan12th Plan

11th Plan

Page 33: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

North

Source: CMA (Cement Manufacturers Association), Centrum Report, Aranca Research

Note: F- Forecast

South East

West Central All India

79% 81% 86%

FY15F FY16F FY17F

75% 78% 84%

FY15F FY16F FY17F

85% 79%

81%

FY15F FY16F FY17F

81% 85%

90%

FY15F FY16F FY17F

60% 63% 67%

FY15F FY16F FY17F

73% 75%

80%

FY15F FY16F FY17F

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12.8 13.5

23.6

31.9

35.5

38.7

FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E

Capacity creation as per the 12th Five Year Plan

(million tonnes)

Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan,

DIPP (Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion)

Notes: Additional capacity creation estimates are based on

increase in base lines, roads, housing and fiscal support,

E – Estimates

Total capacity of 336 million tonnes is estimated to have

been generated in FY12

The strong momentum in capacity addition is not surprising

given the sharp growth in construction, infrastructure and

real estate in Indian economy

Hence, the 12th Five Year Plan is estimated to have an

additional capacity requirement of 156.0 million tonnes by

FY17

The total FDI in cement and gypsum products had totaled

USD2.9 trillion between April 2000-September 2014

Page 35: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Strategy Benefits Company/Plant

Madras Cement's

Alathiyur plant

India Cements Ltd's

Dalavoi plant

UltraTech's Gujarat

Cement Works

Lafarge's Arasmeta plant

Use bioenergy through

burning of coffee husk

and cashew nut shells

Use Low Sulphur Heavy

Stock (LSHS) sludge as

alternate fuel

Use tyre chips and

rubber dust as alternate

fuel

Substitute 10 per cent of

coal used in kilns with

rice husk

Annual cost savings of USD1.7 million

Annual savings of USD6,500 approx

Reduction of about 30,000 tonnes of

carbon emissions annually

Higher energy savings and lower

carbon emissions

Source: CMA, Aranca Research

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Page 37: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Source: Industry Sources, Aranca Research

Note: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum

5.2

3.0

Estimated Demand Available Supply

NE India: Cement demand NE India: Cement supply

NE India: Cement demand-supply gap

Deficit of 2.2 mtpa

• The North Eastern (NE) region has

consistently been in cement deficit for

several years

• At present, cement demand in the NE is

about 5.2 mtpa

• Cement manufactured locally is inadequate

to meet the local demand for cement

• The deficit is met through cement

purchased from other parts of India

• High transportation costs cause the landed

costs of cement to increase considerably

Page 38: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

NE states projected GDP growth at

constant prices

The Government has approved a package of fiscal incentives and other concessions for the North Eastern Region, namely

the North East Industrial and Investment Policy, 2007, effective from 1 April, 2007

The major policy and fiscal initiatives are expected to catalyse infrastructure and industrial development in the region,

spurring the demand for cement

Dungsam cement, A Bhutan-based player, is entering the Indian market, targeting mainly north-east market

NE states projected per capita income

growth

10.0%

13.7%

16.4%

XI 5-yr Plan XII 5-yr Plan XIII 5-yr Plan

8.6%

12.4%

15.2%

XI 5-yr Plan XII 5-yr Plan XIII 5-yr Plan

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Page 40: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

1.4 1.4 1.5

3.0

3.6 3.7 3.6

1.8

0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4

0.2

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15*

Revenue and Profit After Tax (PAT) in USD billion

Source: Company website (www.grasim.com), Aranca Research

Notes: RMC – Ready-Mix Concrete,

*CAGR is calculated in India Rupees,

FY15* - Up till Q2 2015

UltraTech is India's largest exporter of cement clinker

spanning export markets in countries across the Indian

Ocean, Africa, Europe and the Middle East

UltraTech and its subsidiaries have a presence in five

countries through 11 integrated plants, one white cement

plant, one clinkerisation plant, 15 grinding units, two rail and

three coastal terminals, and 101 RMC plants

It has an annual capacity of 54 MT

Projects: Mumbai Metro, Bangalore Metro Rail, Kolkata

Metro Rail, Monorail, Coastal Gujarat Power

Milestones

• 2004 – Acquisition of L&T‘s Cement Business: UltraTech

Cement Ltd

• 2006 – Narmada Cement Company Limited amalgamated with

UltraTech

• 2010 – Samruddhi Cement Limited amalgamated with

UltraTech Cement Limited

• 2012 – Acquisition of Adhunik Cement‘s Meghalaya plant

• 2013 – Buys Jaypee Cement‘s Gujarat unit

CAGR*: 24.1%

Page 41: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Revenue (USD billion)

Source: Company website, Aranca Research

Notes: mtpa – Million Tonnes Per Annum,

*CAGR is calculated in India Rupees

Ambuja Cements Ltd (ACL) is one of the leading cement

manufacturing companies in India.

The company, initially called Gujarat Ambuja Cements Ltd,

was founded by Narotam Sekhsaria in 1983

Ambuja Cements is the second largest cement

manufacturer in India, with nearly 10 per cent of the market

share of total installed capacity

It is the market leader in Northern India with 29 per cent of

the total installed capacity

Milestones

• 2010 – Started cement plant at Nalagarh, Himachal Pradesh and

Dadri, Uttar Pradesh with a capacity of 1.5 million tonnes

• 2011 – Acquired 85 per cent stake in Nepal-based Dang Cement

• 2012 – Expansion of Sankrail Grinding Unit, thereby increasing

the capacity from 1.5 mtpa to 2.4 mtpa

• 2013 – Acquiring Holderind Investments Ltd, Mauritius (Holcim),

These transactions will result in Ambuja holding 50.01 per cent

stake in ACC

1.4 1.5

1.6 1.6

1.8 1.8

1.6

1.2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 9MCY15

CAGR*: 8%

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Page 43: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Cement Manufacturers' Association

CMA Tower, A-2E, Sector 24 NOIDA – 201 301

Uttar Pradesh, India

Phone: 91-120-2411955, 2411957, 2411958

Fax: 91-120-2411956

E-mail: [email protected]

Website: www.cmaindia.org/index.html

Page 44: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Indian Concrete Institute

Ocean Crest 79, Third Main Road, Gandhi Nagar, Adyar, Chennai – 600 020

Phone: 91-44-24912602

Fax: 91-44-24455148

E-mail: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

Website: www.indianconcreteinstitute.org

National Council for Cement and Building Materials

34th Milestone, Delhi-Mathura Road, Ballabgarh – 121 004 Haryana, India

Phone: 91-129-2242051/52/53/54/55/56; 4192222

Fax: 91-129-2242100; 2246175

E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]

Page 45: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

CMA: Cement Manufacturers' Association

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

GoI: Government of India

INR: Indian Rupee

MTPA: Million Tonnes Per Annum

NE India: North-East India

FY: Indian Financial Year (April to March)

So FY10 implies April 2009 to March 2010

USD: US Dollar

Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number

Page 46: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

Year INR equivalent of one USD

2005-06 44.28

2006-07 45.28

2007-08 40.24

2008-09 45.91

2009-10 47.41

2010-11 45.57

2011-12 47.94

2012-13 54.31

2013-14 60.28

Exchange rates (Fiscal Year)

Year INR equivalent of one USD

2006 44.34

2007 39.45

2008 49.21

2009 46.76

2010 45.32

2011 45.64

2012 54.69

2013 58.44

Q12014 61.58

Q22014 59.74

Q32014 60.53

Exchange rates (Calendar Year)

Average for the year

2013* - from January to October 2013

Page 47: With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production ... · Second largest cement market • With nearly 350 million tonnes of cement production capacity, India is the second largest

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