Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

Comparing National GHG Inventories with Independent Estimates Including Inverse Monitoring

Peter Bergamaschi, Frank Dentener, Adrian Leip, Frank Raes,

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

VERIFICATION

• IPCC Good Practice Guidance, 2000 (Annex 2)

International verification of inventories may include:

– Comparison with international or independently compiled activity data,

emission factors, etc. (BOTTOM-UP)

– Comparison with atmosheric measurements at local, regional and

global scales (TOP-DOWN, Inverse Modelling)

• 2006 Guidelines, chapter on cross-cutting issues (in preparation)

– 2006 Guidelines will not be extremely different from GPG 2000

– GPG LULUCF is considered a further development and improvement

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Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

Soil data

ESB (European Soil Bureau), IES JRC

• 1:1,000,000

• Italy 1:250k SOC

Land cover

• CORINE

Meteo

• MARS unit (monitoring Agriculture with remote sensing)

Atmospheric N deposition:

• EMEP -

Crop Data

• Eurostat (Farm Structure Survey)

• Disaggregated to lower level

• ISTAT crop data NUTS level 3(Nomenclature of territorial Units for statistics)

Fertiliser application

• International Fertiliser Industry Association (IFA)

N2O emissions from soils in Europe1

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

N2O emissions from soils in Europe

4. Climate Change Scenario Analysis

Policy Support

4. Climate Change Scenario Analysis

Policy Support

1 Unit_ID 10012 NUT_ID IT1123 Nut_Name Torino4 Longitude 7.4832435 Latitude 45.21259

County Characteristics

1 Unit_ID 10012 Climate_file 450553 N_conc 0.95

Climate Details

1 Grid_ID 450552 Julian Day 13 Max Temp 4.74 Min Temp -0.75 Rainfall (cm) 0.1

Climate File

1 Unit_ID 10012 SOC 0.13234 Clay content 0.46 pH 7.38 BD 1.66

Soil Properties

1 Unit_ID 10012 Cropland 2582983 Sown area 2965064 Fertiliser T 172295 Fertiliser Kg Ha 66.76 Irrigation 0.47 Partition of Fert. *

Farming Management1. Harmonized European-wide Geographical

Database

1. Harmonized European-wide Geographical

Database

3. Results in a GIS3. Results in a GIS

2. Process Based Model

DNDC

2. Process Based Model

DNDC

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

+

Corn Durum wheat

Oats Rapeseed

Rice W Wheat

EU15 model unfcccAustria 3.3 5.7Belgium 10.4Denmark 30.3 16.8Finland 7.3 8.8France 165.0 174.3Germany 77.0 72.8Greece 19.0 8.1Ireland 19.6 9.6Italy 44.9 28.7Lux 0.5NL 24.8 17.1Portugal 7.2 4.4Spain 60.4 27.0Sweden 9.7UK 91.4 46.1

N2O direct emissions from soils in Europe

Gg N2O/yr1997

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

CH4 observations CH4 emissionstransport model

meteo a priori inventory

"big-region" inversion

Inverse modelling of CH4 emissions2

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

CH4 monitoring stations

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

a priori CH4 emissions - IIASA

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

CH4 emissions: a posteriori - a priori

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

a priori / a posteriori emissions

Inverse Modelling study [Bergamaschi et al., 2004]

EU NIR a priori a posteriori

2003 2004 anthrop. natural total avg S1-S7 range anthr.

EU-15Germany 2.40 4.04 3.62 0.26 3.88 ± 0.64 4.20 ( 3.90 ... 4.87 ) 3.95Italy 1.73 1.69 2.06 -0.04 2.02 ± 0.40 2.14 ( 2.10 ... 2.17 ) 2.18France 3.08 3.01 2.68 -0.11 2.56 ± 0.42 4.38 ( 3.86 ... 4.71 ) 4.50BENELUX 1.49 1.42 1.31 0.15 1.47 ± 0.23 1.58 ( 1.35 ... 1.67 ) 1.43Austria 0.43 0.37 0.33 -0.01 0.32 ± 0.05 0.30 ( 0.28 ... 0.30 ) 0.31Spain 1.92 1.92 1.91 -0.06 1.84 ± 0.32 1.99 ( 1.96 ... 2.04 ) 2.06Portugal 0.51 0.38 0.39 -0.02 0.37 ± 0.08 0.38 ( 0.38 ... 0.39 ) 0.40United Kingdom 2.20 2.19 3.39 -0.04 3.35 ± 0.82 4.15 ( 3.91 ... 4.39 ) 4.19Ireland 0.60 0.60 0.66 -0.01 0.64 ± 0.12 0.36 ( 0.26 ... 0.75 ) 0.38Greece 0.53 0.53 0.42 -0.01 0.40 ± 0.07 0.40 ( 0.39 ... 0.40 ) 0.41Sweden 0.28 0.28 0.22 0.85 1.08 ± 0.44 0.93 ( 0.86 ... 0.99 )Finland 0.26 0.26 0.24 2.98 3.23 ± 1.36 0.36 ( -0.27 ... 1.30 )Denmark 0.27 0.28 0.34 -0.01 0.34 ± 0.06 0.33 ( 0.30 ... 0.34 ) 0.33Total EU-15 15.69 16.95 17.59 3.92 21.51 ± 1.92 21.52 ( 21.05 ... 22.03 ) 17.60

3.62 3.952.40 4.04

3.39 4.192.20 2.19

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

Conclusions: CH4 Inverse Modelling

• IM gives emissions consistent with atmospheric concentrations!

• IM suggests higher CH4 emissions (year 2001) for some major EU-15 emitters compared to UNFCCC values (EU NIR 2003):

Germany +65 %

France + 46 %

UK +91%

• EU NIR 2004: Revision of German emission:

• lower CH4 emissions from Finland (wetlands)

• EU-15 totals close to UNFCCC (10-30 %), but …

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

General Conclusions: Verification

• BOTTOM-UP and TOP-DOWN Verification is feasible, and in some cases gives results that are robust and can be compared with official NIR’s

• Verification is swhown to:- provide inputs to improve inventories- build confidence in emissions estimates and trends- help to improve scientific understanding related to emission inventories

(IPCC GPG 2000)

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

CH4 measurements in Schauinsland

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

further European stations

complete set of stations ftp://ftp.ei.jrc.it/pub/bergamas/CH4BR/

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

top-down vs. bottom up (EU NIR 2003)

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

top-down vs. bottom up (EU NIR 2004)

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

• offline atmospheric transport model

• meteo from ECMWF

• global simulation 6o x 4o

• zooming 1o x 1o (Europe, …)

• http://www.phys.uu.nl/~tm5/

atmospheric transport model TM5

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

CH4 emission distribution - a posteriori

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

CH4 observations CH4 emissionsInverse model

In situ measurements

satellite measurements

meteoBottom-up inventories

4D VAR data assimilation

"big-region" inversion

Inverse modelling of CH4 emissions

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

Global and European regions

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

EU NIR 2004revision of German CH4 inventory

2.40 to 4.04 Tg CH4/yr (year 2001); revision of whole time series

• manure management (0.21 -> 1.31 Tg CH4/yr), mainly due to increased CH4 conversion factors from liquid manure management systems

• consideration of manure management systems by district

• incorporation of smaller Bundeslaender, which in previous reports had not been included

Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen

Forward simulation for Pallas (2002)

a priori emission inventory (3 Tg CH4/ yr from Finnish wetlands) yields much too high CH4 mixing ratios during summer