World After Oil DepletionFacts, Consequences and Alternatives

Presenters: Pranati, Arunava, Arun

The Oil AgeAccelerated growth in 20th century due to discovery and use of oil

Rise of US as a superpower attributed to plentiful of oil resources

About 90% of vehicular fuel comes from petroleum resources

Oil DivideThe difference

between oil rich countries and those with deficiency of oil resources

Oil rich countries enjoy high economic prosperity (eg Middle East, US, Canada)

World GDP and Oil Production growthGDP almost follows the same trend as

Oil production growth (factor of 2.5)

Hubbert Peak TheoryPredict that the production curves of non-

renewing resources approximate a bell curve- rises rapidly, to reach a peak and then declines

Makes predictions based on prior discovery rates and anticipated production rates

When peak of production is passed, production rates enter an irreversible decline

Production peak in the USProduction

peaked in the 1970s and went on a decline

Recent advances in extraction technologies has led to increases

Hubbert Peak Curves of non-OPEC countries

Statistics about oil usageEstimated 1.3 trillion barrels of

proven oil reserve left in the world's major fields

At present rates of consumption (89 million barrels/day)- sufficient to last 40 years.

By 2040, production levels may be down to 15 million barrels per day – around 20% of what we currently consume.

Out of largest 21 fields, 9 are in decline

Highest proved oil reserves are in Venezuela Saudi Arabia, Canada and Iran

Inaccuracies of DataMany oil producing nations

manipulate oil reserves data for political reasons

Oil companies want to increase their net worth, producer countries want to increase their independent stature and consumer countries want to foster a sense of security

New Discoveries of Oil

“It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive. ”

— Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, October 2008

The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1965 at around 55 billion barrels/year

Ever since, the rate of new oil field discovery has remained constant at 10-15 billion barrels/year

Consequences of oil depletionRise in food pricesRecessionDecline in industrial growth, GDPGreater competition and

animosity between nations

Global Economic CatastropheRecession due to

decrease in Industrial production- lower number of jobs

Developed countries are already facing a stagnation of GDP growth rate

Rising Food PricesHigher

equipment fuel cost drives costs higher

Higher transportation costs increase retail costs

Escalation of Wars

Growing competition and animosity among nations for oil

Nations will launch increasing number wars against each other for the conquest of remaining oil resources

Wars/ Economic Turmoil related to Oil

Chaco War Oil embargoes of 1970 (coincided with US Peak oil)Gulf WarIraq WarSudan and South Sudan war

Mitigation of Peak OilNeed to find alternatives at least 10-

20 years before the calculated peak, and phase out the use of petroleum.

Energy conservation, fuel substitution and the use of unconventional oil

Iceland was the first country to suggest transitioning to 100% renewable energy in 1998

Immediate solution to global crisis: Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)

Crude oil inventories held by a country to safeguard the economy and national security in the face of a global oil crisis

US holds approx 4 billion barrels as strategic reserves

Indian strategic oil reserves will last just for 2 weeks – Rs1150 crore plan announced in Aug 2015 to build strategic reserves

Recent interest - Unconventional OilHeavy Oil, Tar Sands and Oil Shales

Limitations include difficulty and expense of extraction and extremely polluting

Alternative energyNuclear energy

(although limitations of fuel availability and contamination)

China preparing for post oil era by building pebble bed reactors which uses high temperature gas to crack steam to produce hydrogen

Emphasis on renewable energy like wind/ solar/ tidal energy

Solar powered Aircraft- Impulse 2 (2014)

Experimental stage- Proof of Concept for the future?

Proposed Hydrogen economyHydrogen when

burned with Oxygen is a zero-emission fuel

Used for producing Ammonia for fertilizers (instead of chemical fertilisers) and fuel cells in vehicles

Transition to a Hydrogen Economy – Currently in R&D phase

Nov 15, 2015: Toyota launches first hydrogen fuel cell car

BiofuelsEthanol and biodiesel can be produced

from corn, sugar and the like

Automobile companies producing “flexfuel” vehicles to be compatible with biofuel (eg GM)

Food vs Fuel debateDilemma regarding diverting

farmland/ crops to biofuels production- decreasing Food supply and increasing food prices