World Agricultural Outlook BoardInteragency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts

Lockup Briefing

April 9, 2014

World Wheat Production

April 9, 2014

Country or Region2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Million Tons Percent Percent

World 656.5 712.5 0.0 8.5United States 61.7 58.0 0.0 -6.0

Foreign 594.8 654.6 0.0 10.0Argentina 9.3 10.5 0.0 12.9Canada 27.2 37.5 0.0 37.8Australia 22.5 27.0 0.0 20.2European Union 133.9 142.9 0.0 6.7Russia 37.7 52.1 0.0 38.1Ukraine 15.8 22.3 0.0 41.3Kazakhstan 9.8 13.9 0.0 41.7China 121.0 121.7 0.0 0.6India 94.9 93.5 0.0 -1.4

2

World Wheat Supply and Use

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Million Tons Percent Percent

Beginning stocks 198.9 176.6 0.4 -11.2Production 656.5 712.5 0.0 8.5Total Supply 855.4 889.1 0.1 3.9

Feed use 136.6 132.9 -1.5 -2.7Total use 678.8 702.4 -0.3 3.5Trade 137.4 160.9 -0.7 17.1Ending Stocks 176.6 186.7 1.6 5.7

3

World Corn and Wheat ExportsTrade Years*

*Corn trade year October-September. Wheat trade year July-June.Source: USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis, Grains:World Markets and Trade, March 10, 2014

April 9, 20144

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 55.7 56.2 0.0 0.9Harvested area (million acres) 48.9 45.2 0.0 -7.7Yield (bushels per acre) 46.3 47.2 0.0 1.9

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 743 718 0.0 -3.3Production 2,266 2,130 0.0 -6.0Imports 123 165 -2.9 34.4Total supply 3,131 3,013 -0.2 -3.8

Food use 945 960 0.0 1.6Seed 73 74 -0.2 1.9Feed and residual 388 220 -12.0 -43.4Domestic use 1,406 1,254 -2.3 -10.8

Exports 1,007 1,175 0.0 16.6Total use 2,414 2,429 -1.2 0.7

Ending stocks 718 583 4.5 -18.8Percent

Stocks to use ratio 29.7 24.0Dollars per bushel

Average market price 7.77 6.75/6.95 0.0 -11.8

5

World Rice Production

April 9, 2014

Country or Region

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Million Tons Percent Percent

World 471.3 475.6 0.2 0.9United States 6.3 6.1 0.0 -3.5

Foreign 464.9 469.5 0.2 1.0Brazil 8.0 8.6 3.6 7.6Egypt 4.7 4.9 0.0 3.7Bangladesh 33.8 34.6 0.0 2.3Cambodia 4.6 4.9 0.0 6.5China 143.0 142.3 0.0 -0.5India 105.2 105.0 0.0 -0.2Indonesia 36.6 37.4 0.0 2.2Japan 7.8 7.8 0.0 1.0Sri Lanka 2.7 2.8 0.0 2.8Pakistan 5.8 6.6 3.1 13.8Philippines 11.4 11.6 0.0 1.9Thailand 20.2 20.5 0.0 1.5Vietnam 27.5 27.8 0.4 1.0

6

World Rice Supply and Use

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Million Tons, milled Percent Percent

Beginning stocks 106.7 110.2 -0.7 3.3Production 471.3 475.6 0.2 0.9Total Supply 577.9 585.8 0.0 1.4

Total use 467.8 474.6 0.1 1.5Trade 39.2 40.9 0.0 4.5Ending Stocks 110.2 111.2 -0.5 0.9

7

U.S. Rice Supply and DemandRough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 2.70 2.49 0.0 -7.8Harvested area (million acres) 2.68 2.47 0.0 -7.9Yield (pounds per acre) 7,449 7,694 0.0 3.3

Million cwtBeginning stocks 41.1 36.4 0.0 -11.3Production 199.5 189.9 0.0 -4.8Imports 21.1 22.0 0.0 4.5Total supply 261.7 248.3 0.0 -5.1

Domestic use 118.2 124.0 3.3 4.9Exports 107.1 97.0 -3.0 -9.4Total use 225.3 221.0 0.5 -1.9

Ending stocks 36.4 27.3 -3.5 -25.0Percent

Stocks to use ratio 16.2 12.4Dollars per cwt

Average market price 15.10 16.60/17.20 1.8 11.9

8

World Corn Production

April 9, 2014

Country or Region2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Million Tons Percent Percent

World 866.9 973.9 0.7 12.3United States 273.8 353.7 0.0 29.2

Foreign 593.1 620.2 1.0 4.6Argentina 27.0 24.0 0.0 -11.1Brazil 81.5 72.0 2.9 -11.7Mexico 21.6 21.9 0.9 1.4Canada 13.1 14.2 0.0 8.7European Union 58.9 64.9 0.0 10.2FSU-12 32.4 47.2 2.2 45.9Ukraine 20.9 30.9 0.0 47.7Russia 8.2 11.6 8.9 41.7

South Africa 12.4 14.0 7.7 13.2China 205.6 217.7 0.0 5.9India 22.3 23.0 0.0 3.3

9

Brazil Corn Unit 2012/13 2013/14

Change from last

month (%)

Change from last year (%)

Prev.Record Year

Area Mil. ha 15.8* 14.7 NC -7% 15.8 2012/13

Yield Tons/ha 5.16* 4.90 3% -5% 5.16 2012/13

Production Mil. tons 81.50* 72.00 3% -12% 81.50 2012/13

* Indicates a record

Brazil 2013/14 Corn SummaryApril 2014

April 9, 201410

Brazil Corn: First-season compared to Second-season

First-season Corn Planting began in

September 2013. Area down 0.4 Mha

from last year. Crop is harvested. Some damage from heat

and drought. Corn production used

by livestock industry.

Second-season Corn Planting began in Feb. 2014. High cost of production and

low prices result in unprofitability.

Area down 0.7 Mha from last year.

Rains in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias and Mato Grosso have increased yield potential.

Corn production for export market.

April 9, 201411

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

2013/14

Average

Mar 30: 82% vegetative 14% flowering

3% filling

92% Good / 1% Poor

Since LastMeeting

2nd Corn (DERAL)

2012/13

99% Planted

April 9, 201412

1

2

3

April 9, 201413

3. Toledo, Parana, Brazil

Satellite-derived vegetation health indicates conditions for 2013/14 (RED) are similar to 2012/13 season (YELLOW) for corn in Parana.

Corn yields are forecast similar to last year’s 4.83 tons per hectare.

Critical flowering and grainfill stages for second-crop corn are expected in late April and

early May.

April 9, 201414

South Africa’s Grain BasketApproximately 50% of production is divided between east and west.

West: Lower yields & greater corn area

East: Higher yields & less corn area

North West

Free State

Mpumalanga

Gautang

April 9, 201415

Lower Yields in the West

Lower yields in the west due to lower rainfall and low plant density from wide row spacings (>1.5-meters).

April 9, 201416

Source: FEWSNET/USGS Africa: http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/africa/index.phpGlobal:  http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/global/index.php

Monthly Actual Evapotranspiration (ETa) AnomalyDerived from Thermal Band on MODIS sensor

Percent of Average (2001-2010)

Dec, 2013 Jan, 2014 Feb, 2014 Mar, 2014

April 9, 201417

2013/14

2012/13

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Average

April 9, 201418

North West Province: MODIS-NDVI Time Series

Source: USDA/NASA GLAM Project http://glam1.gsfc.nasa.gov/ April 9, 201419

Latest trend is to install center pivots (CP) with smaller diameters.

April 9, 201420

World Corn Supply and Use

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Million Tons Percent Percent

Beginning stocks 132.8 134.4 -0.2 1.2Production 866.9 973.9 0.7 12.3Total Supply 999.8 1,108.3 0.6 10.9

Feed use 517.3 576.2 0.2 11.4Total use 865.4 950.3 0.7 9.8Trade 94.8 119.4 4.3 26.0Ending Stocks 134.4 158.0 -0.3 17.6

21

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 97.2 95.4 0.0 -1.8Harvested area (million acres) 87.4 87.7 0.0 0.3Yield (bushels per acre) 123.4 158.8 0.0 28.7

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 989 821 0.0 -17.0Production 10,780 13,925 0.0 29.2Imports 162 35 0.0 -78.4Total supply 11,932 14,781 0.0 23.9

Feed and residual 4,333 5,300 0.0 22.3Food, seed, and industrial 6,046 6,400 0.0 5.8Ethanol 4,648 5,000 0.0 7.6Domestic use 10,379 11,700 0.0 12.7

Exports 731 1,750 7.7 139.3Total use 11,111 13,450 0.9 21.1

Ending stocks 821 1,331 -8.6 62.1Percent

Stocks to use ratio 7.4 9.9Dollars per bushel

Average market price 6.89 4.40/4.80 2.2 -33.222

World Soybean Production

April 9, 2014

Country or Region

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Million Tons Percent Percent

World 268.1 284.0 -0.5 5.9United States 82.6 89.5 0.0 8.4

Foreign 185.5 194.5 -0.7 4.8Argentina 49.3 54.0 0.0 9.5Brazil 82.0 87.5 -1.1 6.7Paraguay 8.3 8.1 0.0 -2.4Ukraine 2.4 2.8 0.0 14.9India 11.5 11.0 -6.8 -4.3China 13.1 12.2 0.0 -6.5

23

Brazil Soybean Unit 2012/13 2013/14

Change from last

month (%)

Change from last year (%)

Prev.Record Year

Area Mil. ha 27.70 29.90* 1% 8% 27.70 2012/13

Yield Tons/ha 2.96 2.93 -4% -1% 3.11 2010/11

Production Mil. tons 82.00 87.50* -1% 7% 82.00 2012/13

* Indicates a record

Brazil 2013/14 Soybean SummaryApril 2014

April 9, 201424

Hot and dry in early February

2014.About 40 percent

of production.

April 9, 201425

U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 77.2 76.5 0.0 -0.9Harvested area (million acres) 76.2 75.9 0.0 -0.4Yield (bushels per acre) 39.8 43.3 0.0 8.8

Million bushelsBeginning stocks 169 141 0.0 -17.0Production 3,034 3,289 0.0 8.4Imports 36 65 85.7 79.9Total supply 3,239 3,494 0.9 7.9

Crush 1,689 1,685 -0.3 -0.2Seed and residual 90 95 -4.5 5.2Domestic use 1,779 1,780 -0.5 0.0

Exports 1,320 1,580 3.3 19.7Total use 3,099 3,360 1.2 8.4

Ending stocks 141 135 -7.3 -4.1Percent

Stocks to use ratio 4.5 4.0Dollars per bushel

Average market price 14.40 12.50/13.50 0.4 -9.7

26

World Cotton Production

April 9, 2014

Country or Region2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Million Bales Percent Percent

World 123.0 116.6 -0.1 -5.2United States 17.3 12.9 -2.4 -25.7

Foreign 105.7 103.8 0.3 -1.8Argentina 0.8 1.3 -3.8 66.7Brazil 6.0 7.5 1.4 25.0Turkey 2.7 2.3 2.2 -13.2Syria 0.7 0.6 0.0 -17.2Australia 4.6 4.1 0.0 -10.9China 35.0 32.0 0.0 -8.6India 28.5 29.0 0.0 1.8Pakistan 9.3 9.5 0.0 2.2Uzbekistan 4.5 4.3 0.0 -5.6African Franc Zone 4.2 4.2 2.4 0.0

27

World Cotton Supply and Use

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Million Bales Percent Percent

Beginning stocks 73.4 89.7 0.6 22.1Production 123.0 116.6 -0.1 -5.2Total Supply 196.5 206.3 0.2 5.0

Total Use 106.5 109.5 0.2 2.8Trade 46.7 39.6 3.0 -15.1Ending Stocks 89.7 96.9 0.2 8.1

Addendum:China Ending Stocks 50.4 58.8 1.7 16.8

28

U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Percent PercentPlanted area (million acres) 12.31 10.41 0.0 -15.5Harvested area (million acres) 9.37 7.66 0.0 -18.2Yield (pounds per acre) 887 806 -2.4 -9.1

Million balesBeginning stocks 3.35 3.90 0.0 16.4Imports 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.0Production 17.32 12.87 -2.4 -25.7Total supply 20.68 16.78 -1.9 -18.9

Mill use 3.50 3.60 0.0 2.9Exports 13.03 10.70 0.0 -17.9Total use 16.53 14.30 0.0 -13.5

Unaccounted 0.25 -0.02Ending stocks 3.90 2.50 -10.7 -35.9

PercentStocks/use 23.6 17.5

Cents per poundAverage market price 72.5 76.0/79.0 1.3 6.9

29

Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Thousand MT Percent Percent

Beginning stocks 966 1,460 0.0 51.1Production 6,975 6,350 0.0 -9.0Imports 217 226 0.0 4.1Total Supply 8,158 8,036 0.0 -1.5

Domestic use 4,726 4,690 0.0 -0.8Exports 1,972 2,399 0.0 21.6Total Use 6,698 7,089 0.0 5.8

Ending stocks 1,460 947 0.0 -35.1

30

U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

1,000 short tons, raw value Percent PercentBeginning Stocks 1,979 2,158 -0.1 9.1Production 8,982 8,644 -0.8 -3.8Beets 5,076 4,984 -0.8 -1.8Cane 3,906 3,660 -0.8 -6.3

Imports 3,224 3,184 0.0 -1.2TRQ 957 1,319 0.0 37.8Re-export 136 110 0.0 -19.1Mexico 2,124 1,745 0.0 -17.8High-tier 7 10 0.0 42.9Total Supply 14,185 13,987 -0.5 -1.4

Exports 274 325 0.0 18.6Domestic deliveries 11,752 12,051 0.0 2.5

Total use 12,026 12,376 0.0 2.9Ending stocks 2,158 1,610 -4.4 -25.4

Percent

Stocks/use ratio 17.9 13.0

31

U.S. Meat Production and Prices

April 9, 2014

2013 estimate

2014 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2013

Production Billion pounds Percent PercentBeef 25.72 24.57 0.1 -4.5Pork 23.20 22.76 -2.6 -1.9Broilers 37.83 38.50 -0.5 1.8Turkey 5.80 5.68 -0.4 -2.2Total meat 93.34 92.29 -0.9 -1.1

Prices Dollars/cwtSteers 125.89 147.34 3.5 17.0Hogs 64.05 73.67 9.8 15.0

Cents/lbBroilers 99.7 102.1 4.6 2.4Turkey 99.8 105.7 2.5 5.9

32

U.S. Meat TradeMillion Pounds

April 9, 2014

2013 estimate

2014 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2013

Exports Percent PercentBeef 2,583 2,515 3.3 -2.6Pork 4,992 4,850 -4.6 -2.8Broilers 7,364 7,525 -0.3 2.2Turkey 758 710 -6.6 -6.3Mature Chickens 108 100 -9.1 -7.1

Total meat 15,812 15,709 -1.5 -0.7Imports

Beef 2,250 2,325 1.8 3.3

33

U.S. Milk Supply and Demand

April 9, 2014

2013 estimate

2014 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2013

Billion pounds Percent PercentProduction 201.2 206.1 0.2 2.4Imports 3.7 3.7 -0.8 -0.7Commercial use 192.6 196.5 0.2 2.0Exports 12.4 12.7 2.3 2.2

Average market price 1/ Dollars/cwtClass III 17.99 20.65 7.3 14.8Class IV 19.05 21.35 3.1 12.1All milk 20.01 22.80 5.1 14.0

1/ Prices are mid-point of published forecasts; milk of average fat test.

34

U.S. Dairy Product Prices

April 9, 2014

2013 estimate

2014 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2013

Product prices Dollars/pound Percent Percent

Cheese 1.77 2.01 6.3 13.8

Butter 1.55 1.80 9.1 16.5

Nonfat dry milk 1.71 1.85 -0.1 8.3

Dry whey 0.59 0.63 5.7 6.5

Class prices Dollars/cwt

Class III 17.99 20.65 7.3 14.8

Class IV 19.05 21.35 3.1 12.1

All milk 20.01 22.80 5.1 14.0

35

U.S. Production Summary

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Percent PercentCrops and ProductsWheat (Million bu) 2,266 2,130 0.0 -6.0Rice (Million cwt) 199.5 189.9 0.0 -4.8Corn (Million bu) 10,780 13,925 0.0 29.2Sorghum (Million bu) 247 389 0.0 57.6Barley (Million bu) 220 215 0.0 -2.4Oats (Million bu) 64 66 0.0 2.9Soybeans (Million bu) 3,034 3,289 0.0 8.4Soybean oil (Million lbs) 19,820 19,665 -0.3 -0.8Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 39,875 40,010 -0.2 0.3Cotton (Million bales) 17.32 12.87 -2.4 -25.7Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 8,982 8,644 -0.8 -3.8

Milk (Billion lbs) 201.2 206.1 0.2 2.4

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 25.72 24.57 0.1 -4.5Pork 23.20 22.76 -2.6 -1.9Broilers 37.83 38.50 -0.5 1.8Turkey 5.80 5.68 -0.4 -2.2Total Meat 93.34 92.29 -0.9 -1.1

36

Domestic Demand Summary

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Percent PercentCrops and ProductsWheat (Million bu) 1,406 1,254 -2.3 -10.8Rice (Million cwt) 118.2 124.0 3.3 4.9Corn (Million bu) 10,379 11,700 0.0 12.7Sorghum (Million bu) 188 205 -8.9 8.9Barley (Million bu) 214 215 0.0 0.3Oats (Million bu) 174 165 6.5 -5.3Soybeans (Million bu) 1,779 1,780 -0.5 0.0Soybean oil (Million lbs) 18,686 18,450 -0.5 -1.3Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 29,031 29,200 -0.7 0.6Cotton (Million bales) 3.50 3.60 0.0 2.9Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 11,752 12,051 0.0 2.5

Milk (Billion lbs) 192.6 196.5 0.2 2.0

Meat (Billion lbs)Beef 25.49 24.52 -0.1 -3.8Pork 19.11 18.85 -1.7 -1.3Broilers 30.17 30.71 -0.5 1.8Turkey 5.05 4.98 0.5 -1.5Total meat 80.68 79.91 -0.6 -0.9

37

U.S. Export Summary

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Percent PercentCrops and productsWheat (Million bu) 1,007 1,175 0.0 16.6Rice (Million cwt) 107.1 97.0 -3.0 -9.4Corn (Million bu) 731 1,750 7.7 139.3Sorghum (Million bu) 76 180 12.5 136.8Barley (Million bu) 9 12 20.0 35.5Soybeans (Million bu) 1,320 1,580 3.3 19.7Soybean oil (Million lbs) 2,164 1,550 3.3 -28.4Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) 11,114 11,000 0.9 -1.0Cotton (Million bales) 13.03 10.70 0.0 -17.9

Meat (Million lbs)Beef 2,583 2,515 3.3 -2.6Pork 4,992 4,850 -4.6 -2.8Broilers 7,364 7,525 -0.3 2.2Turkey 758 710 -6.6 -6.3Mature Chickens 108 100 -9.1 -7.1Total meat 15,812 15,709 -1.5 -0.7

38

Price Summary

April 9, 2014

2012/13 estimate

2013/14 forecast

Change from March

Change from 2012/13

Percent PercentCrops and productsWheat ($/bu) 7.77 6.85 0.0 -11.8Rice ($/cwt) 15.10 16.90 1.8 11.9Corn ($/bu) 6.89 4.60 2.2 -33.2Soybeans ($/bu) 14.40 13.00 0.4 -9.7Soybean oil (¢/lb) 47.13 39.00 4.0 -17.3Soybean meal ($/s.t.) 468.11 475.00 1.1 1.5Cotton (¢/lb) 72.50 77.50 1.3 6.9

LivestockSteers ($/cwt) 125.9 147.3 3.5 17.0Hogs ($/cwt) 64.0 73.7 9.8 15.0Broilers (¢/lb) 99.7 102.1 4.6 2.4Turkeys (¢/lb) 99.8 105.7 2.5 5.9

Dairy productsCheese 1.77 2.01 6.3 13.8Butter 1.55 1.80 9.1 16.5Nonfat dry milk 1.71 1.85 -0.1 8.3Dry whey 0.59 0.63 5.7 6.5

Milk classesClass III ($/cwt) 17.99 20.65 7.3 14.8Class IV ($/cwt) 19.05 21.35 3.1 12.1All milk ($/cwt) 20.01 22.80 5.1 14.0

39