World Climate Research World Climate Research Programme: Plans and PrioritiesProgramme: Plans and Priorities

THORPEX ICSCTHORPEX ICSCSeptember 2011 September 2011

Geneva, SwitzerlandGeneva, Switzerland

Ghassem R Asrar

• Strategy and Implementation Plan

• Key Activities in 2010/2011

• Future Functions and Structure

• Expectations/Outcomes from JSC-32

• Joint Activities with WWRP/THORPEX

Mission & Objectives

World Climate Research Programme coordinates international climate research, modeling and analysis to improve:

(1) climate predictions and (2) our understanding of human influence on climate

“for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).

WCRP Implementation WCRP Implementation PlanPlan

• The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science – Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate– Cryosphere and Climate – Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate – Water, Energy and Climate

• Meeting the Information Needs of Society Activities in Support of Key Deliverables– Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction– Sea-Level Variability and Change – Climate Extremes– Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics– Centennial Climate Change Projections – Seasonal Climate Prediction

Activities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes – Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses – A New Generation of Climate/Earth System Models – Next Generation of Climate Experts: Developing Capacity Regionally and Globally

Key Activities in 2010/11

• WCRP Open Science Conference

• Climate modelling coordination (CMIP5, CHFP)

• Regional modelling & analysis, CORDEX

• Global data sets & reprocessing of GEWEX observations

• Polar Predictability Initiative

• Drought & Extremes Workshops

• Reanalysis – plans for major conference, May 2012

• WCRP Planning for future, OSC

• The purpose of this meeting was to follow up on the recommendations of the World Modelling Summit, and actions resulting from the JSC meeting in Antalya, Turkey, on the subject of modelling.

• The JSC discussed at length the formation of a WCRP Modelling Council in the context of WCRP visioning and future direction to carry out the following functions:

– Promoting greater use of observations and results of process studies in/with models;– Promoting collaboration amongst various climate science communities (includes

numerical weather prediction (NWP), seasonal to interannual prediction, and climate projection as well as those dealing with biogeochemistry, air quality, terrestrial ecology, etc.);

– Promoting application of models to problems of societal relevance, quantifying uncertainties and making sure they are well communicated and understood;

– Promoting the model development and improvements.

Modeling Coordination Meeting

Research Contributions to Climate Services

Task Team: Chair Greg Flato• Coming out of last year's JSC meeting, one of the action items was to develop the WCRP position

on research in support of climate services. • Charge: to form a sub-set of the JSC and some of the Project co-chairs to follow up on

discussions/deliberations at the JSC, our latest input to the GFCS High Level Task Team, and to develop further the role of WCRP Research in Climate Services.

• Topics for consideration:What are the envisioned contributions of WCRP to the Framework for Climate Services?

What are the potential strategies/approaches for development and sharing of the climate knowledge and resulting from WCRP and its affiliate Projects with potential partners?

Who are the potential partners external to WCRP?

What role WCRP can and should play in facilitating and promoting best practices in development and dissemination of reliable climate information? (Implicit in this request is consideration of what we should not be doing?.)

How should WCRP best organize itself in this regard?

WCRP Data Council Transition Plan from WOAP to a Data Council

Sarah Gille, Chair from JSCMike Manton, WOAP Chair Mike Bosilovich, Re-analysisAdrian Simmons, GCOS Toshio Koike WCRP Info SystemKarl Taylor, CLIVAR Chris Kummerow, GEWEXColin Jones or CORDEX rep. Veronika Eyring, Modeling Council MeetingJeff Key, CliC Michaela Haegglin, SPARCNorm McFarlane, Executive Sec.

Charge: Identify WCRP functions in coordinating research on observations and new observations required for climate research, especially for process understanding and model development and evaluation.

Identify WCRP functions in coordinating the development, stewardship and dissemination of climate information resulting from its research, modeling and analysis activities.

Develop a framework for coordination an integration of pan-WCRP observations, analysis and information management activities identified above;

Recommend how the proposed framework should be organized and supported within WCRP in a manner that is complimentary and value added to the activities of Projects and sister programmes (e.g. GCOS, CEOS, GEOSS, WIS, etc.).

WCRP JSC 32, Met Office, Exeter, UK 4-8 4-8 April 2011

Agenda & Expectations and Outcomes

•Discuss the transition/evolution of the WCRP and its core projects

•Discuss the WCRP Open Science Conference agenda and its outcome for developing the future functions and structure of the Programme and Projects

• JSC 32 outcomes– Modelling Council Approved

• Earth System prediction with IGBP,WWRP,…

– Data Council Approved– TOR was developed– WG on Regional climate science & info. formed

• A team was established to define scope and charter

– Cross-cut on Communication w/IOC– Sustained Ocean Obs. Task Team – Identify WCRP

role after release of their report

Coordination & Partnerships

• Scientific and Technical Conferences• Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)• Polar Research, Modeling and Prediction• Season and Sub-seasonal Weather/Climate• Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate• Education and Capacity Development• Geo-engineering

Year Of Tropical Convection• CINDY DYNAMO field phase (Oct 2011-jan

2012) • YOTC Giovanni data dissemination framework

- providing user-friendly access to the YOTC satellite archive.

• MJO Task Force still active – meets at OSC

Coordination & Partnerships

• Provide baseline assessment of seasonal prediction

capabilities using the best available models and data for

initialization

• Provide experimental framework for focused research

on how various components of the climate system interact

and affect one another

• Provide a test-bed for evaluating IPCC class models in seasonal prediction

• Provide framework for assessing current and planned

observing systems

• Integrate process studies/field campaigns into model

improvements

Climate Historical Forecast Project

Experiment Protocol

• Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization of Components of

Climate System

– Role for each of core WCRP projects

– Key: No future information after initialization

• Seven Month Lead Ensemble (10 member), Fully Interactive Predictions of

the Climate System

– Predictions Initialized Four Times per Year for Each Year 1979-

– Some Groups Extend to Decadal Time Scales (WCRP crosscut)

• Agreed upon output (variables, frequency, …)

• International Multi-Institution Participation

• Diagnostic sub-projects

– will involve extensive interactions among WCRP projects/panels

Participating Groups1. EU ENSEMBLES (Linked Server)2. UKMET (CIMA)3. APCC (Linked Server)4. NOAA-NCEP5. NOAA-GFDL6. NASA-GMAO (Jan 2012) 7. COLA-UMiami-NCAR (September 2011) 8. BMRC 9. JMA (CIMA) 10. CCCma (CIMA) 11. CPTEC12. IRI

CompletedHindcasts Done, Data Transfer PendingHindcasts Nearly CompletedBlack – Status Pending

http://chfps.cima.fcen.uba.ar/CIMA CHFP Data Server

Coordination & Partnerships

Significant role for land-atmospherecoupling in seasonal predictability

GLACE-2Goal of determining prediction skill associated withaccurate initialization of land surface states

• Coordinated set of experiments involving 12 models• Twin experiments using realistic/unrealistic land initialization• Difference indicates skill due to land-atmosphere coupling• Complements CHFP protocol (no future information included)• Data available from NASA GSFC

Coordination & Partnerships

Stratosphere resolving HFP Goal of quantifying skill gained initializing andresolving stratosphere in seasonal forecast systems

• Parallel hindcasts from stratosphere resolving and non-resolving models• Action from WGSIP-12: Endorse as subproject of CHFP• SPARC to recommend diagnostics

Additional predictability likelyassociated with stratospheric dynamics

Coordination & Partnerships

• Ocean-atmosphere coupling impact sub-seasonal forecast skill• Role of resolution on forecast skill• Scale interactions • Ensemble techniques

TIGGE Representation (P. Silva Dias) at WGSIP-13Several Area of Potential Collaboration Identified

WCRP Workshop on Polar Predictability on Seasonal to Multi-Decadal Timescales

• Bergen, Norway, 25-29 October 2010, ~80 participants• Focus on scientific challenges, rather than programmatic• Despite limited investment and emphasis in the past, early results

concerning the extent of polar predictability show promise. • We understand many of the physical sources of predictability in the

polar climate system, but there is lack of a good understanding of many of the feedback mechanisms between the different components of the climate system, and the physical causality of the large-scale modes of variability in the polar regions.

Coordination & Partnerships

Coordination & Partnerships

Several areas of potential collaboration:

• CHFP protocol encourages interactive ice models: additional experiments with diagnostics for cryosphere • Sea ice prediction and initialization Experimental Protocol Developed and Numerical Experiments Underway• Spring snow melt into soil moisture and influence on spring temperature anomalies

Explore seasonal predictability associated with snow and sea ice

• Examples of possible research foci:– Seasonal predictability and seasonality of long-term changes– Forced and unforced components of decadal predictability– Initial state estimates– Extent of potential predictability

• The first action would be to hold a focused meeting, to develop a detailed implementation plan (beginning of 2012).

• Cooperation with partners, e.g. with Thorpex (and Polar Thorpex) essential, Chair invited, joint work foreseen.

• This could be a contribution to the WMO Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS), and an element of the potential International Polar Decade initiative.

Resulting WCRP Polar Predictability Initiative

Coordination & Partnerships

See You in Denver!WCRP Open Science Conference

24-28 October 2011Denver, Colorado, USA

http://conference2011.wcrp-climate.org

Promoting, Facilitating and CoordinatingClimate Research in Service to

Society