World Climate Research Programme

Progress and Plans

Ghassem R. Asrar & Antonio J. Busalacchi

Background

• WCRP Independent Review by its Sponsors- 2008-2009• WMO Planning for the Global Framework for Climate

Services- 2009-Present• ICSU Visioning for Environmental research and Global

Sustainability, Future Earth- 2010-Present• IOC/UNESCO OcenObservation Symposium leading to

development of Integrated Framework for Sustained Ocean Observations (IFSOO) – 2009-Present

• The WCRP Joint Scientific Committee initiated strategic planning and consultation- 2008-Present

Shaping plans and priorities for next decade.

Research Contributions: Way Forward

• Maintain scientific objectivity and excellence as a foundation for science-based climate information.

• Establish an effective dialogue with users of climate information to understand their needs and to obtain their feedback on use of available knowledge, and required new information.

• Facilitate the holistic approach to Earth climate system research to include socioeconomic aspects of the problems, and decision processes.

• Provide greater support to research capacity development with special focus on regional aspects of climate variability and change.

• Promote solution-based approach to addressing challenges and opportunities in developing, evaluating and disseminating climate information for risk management, adaptation planning and global sustainability and development.

• Urgent need for actionable climate information based on sound science

• The need for “symbiotic” relationship between providers and users of climate information to ensure climate information is timely, accessible, easy to understand

• Urgent need for training and development of next generation of scientists and decision makers who pursue and promote the use of actionable climate/environmental information

Stakeholders and User Perspective

WCRP Grand Science WCRP Grand Science ChallengesChallenges

• Provision of skillful future climate information on regional scales

• Sea-Level Change and its regional implications

• Cryosphere response to climate change

• The role of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation in climate sensitivity

• Water availability and distribution in a changing climate

• Science foundation for prediction and attribution of extreme events

Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme coordinates

international climate research to improve;

(1) climate predictions and (2) our understanding of human influence on climate

“for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).

Emerging Structure Post-2013Emerging Structure Post-2013

• The WCRP will focus on four fundamental interactions of the Earth/climate system: – Ocean-atmosphere– Land-atmosphere– Stratosphere-troposphere– Cryosphere and Climate

WCRP Overarching/Unifying themes: - Observation and Analysis- Process understanding- Model development, projections and prediction- Climate Information and Application

1day 1week 1month 1season 1year 1 decade 1 century

The Seamless Prediction of Earth System

FrontsConvec systems

Cyclones

Blocks

MJO

NAO

QBO PDO

ENSO AMO

atmosphere

ocean

region global

skin upper full

land moisture vegetation

atmospheric chemistry

Ice sheets

Opportunities and Challenges;

Support development of climate information for decision makers;

• Develop seamless regional and intera-seasonal to inter-annual, and decadal climate prediction/projection;

• Promote and enable timely, reliable, and easy to access climate information and knowledge; and

• Support education, training and development of next generation of climate experts and networks.

• International cooperation and Coordination is key to success.

Summary

WCRP, WWRP and GAW

Joint Research Initiatives

Ghassem Asrar and Deon TerblancheResearch Department

WMO

Background/Rationale

• Executive Council Task Team on Research Aspects of an Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction Framework, 2009

– Coordinate and Accelerate Prediction Research: develop a unified approach to multidisciplinary weather, climate, water and environmental prediction research, step up high-performance computing investments to accommodate the increasing complexity and detail of models, accelerate the development, validation and use of prediction models

– Link Research, Operation and Service Delivery: Develop closer linkages between research, operations and users through Forecast Demonstration Projects (FDPs) that accelerate technology transfer

– The Role of WMO Commissions: Implement a process to review and rationalise the roles and mandates of the Commissions, and to improve their effectiveness in enhancing WMO Member capabilities in research, observations, prediction and services

WMO

Seamless Prediction

WMO

Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Project

Objectives: To improve forecast skill and understanding on the S2S timescale with emphasis on HIW

To promote uptake by operational centres and exploitation by the applications community

To capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address GFCS priorities

Implementation underway: TIGGE-like multi-model data base being established

Demonstration projects on extreme events(e.g. 2010 Russian heatwave, floods in Pakistan in 2010 and Australia in 2011, and 2012 European cold spell)

Project Office: NIMR, KMA, Jeju, Korea (official ceremony at EC-65)

Trust fund: we expect and welcome support and contributions by Members.Courtesy IRI

Courtesy UKMO

WMO

Polar Prediction Project (PPP)

Objective: “Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal” (contribution to WMO GIPPS)

Research components: observations, modeling, data assimilation, ensemble forecasting

predictability, diagnostics, teleconnections

societal and economic research applications, verification

Implementation: Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) – period 2017-2018

Synergies with the WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI)

Project Office: under discussion

Trust fund: contributions welcomeCourtesy T. Jung, AWI

Side Event on Monday!

WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI)

WMO

GIPPS

(Global

Integrated

Polar

Prediction

System)

Research on Ice Sheets and Sea Level

WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP)

Research Tasks

Understand past polar

climate variations,

(palaeo, up to 100 years)

Assess re-analyses products in polar regions

Understand polar climate predictability

on seasonal to decadal

timescales

Assess perfor-mance

of CMIP5 models in

polar regions

Model error

Understand how jets and non-

zonal circulation

couple to the rest of the

climate system in the Southern

Hemisphere

Day

s ->

Mo

nth

s ->

Yea

rs -

> D

ecad

es -

> C

entu

ries

17

Sand and Dust Storm Warning and Advisory System(SDS-WAS)

Objectives : To enhance the ability of countries to deliver timely and quality forecasts of sand and dust storms, observations of aerosols; sand and dust information and knowledge to users through an international partnership of research and operational experts and users

MERIT Meningitis Project and TIGGE/Meningitis web-page

http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_meningitis.html

New SDS-WAS Node is in USA

UNEP-WMO Collaboration on SDS-WAS in West Asia

The SDS-WAS Research Implementation Plan : in final stage

Financial Support : Currently from the regular WMO budget, but in future from the voluntary contributions (via trust fund).

Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)

Jointly established by the WCRP and the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)

Responsibility of fostering the development of atmospheric circulation models for use in weather prediction and climate studies on all time scales and diagnosing and resolving shortcomings

Terms of Reference– Advice, liaison, coordinated experiments, workshops, publications, meetings

Some current projects– Transpose-AMIP - testing climate models in NWP mode– AMIP– testing NWP in climate mode– Grey-zone - representation of cold air outbreak (LES, mesoscale models, global models)– NWP performance – e.g. tropical cyclones, precipitation– Polar– ConcordIASIintercomparison– Climate metrics - joint WGNE/WGCM panel– Issues with verification - against own (re-)analysis– MJO – e.g. Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation intercomparisons– YOTC– multi-scale convection on tropical cyclones– Importance of aerosols for weather and climate - coordinated experimentation planned– Comparison of model momentum budgets - surface drag in weather and climate models

Thank you!