Date post: | 02-Apr-2018 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | chandan-kumar-sahu |
View: | 222 times |
Download: | 0 times |
of 16
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
1/16
2013/14 world corn production: 956 [912999] million tons, 4 million tons below USDA
2013/14 world soybean production: 283 [259300] million tons, 3 million tons below USDA
2013/14 world wheat production: 694 [670727] million tons, 4 million tons below USDA
In this report Lanworth updates production outlooks for 2013/14 China, Ukraine, and US corn; Australia,
Canada, Kazakhstan, Russia, and US wheat; US soybean; and Australia canola. Recent and expected warm
temperatures and/or precipitation extremes indicate moderately lower crop yield potential in China, the
Former Soviet Union, and the US. Continued warming and extreme precipitation in these Northern
Hemisphere regions could lower world corn, soybean, and wheat production well below USDAs projections.
However, long-term US weather forecasts calling for average to below average temperatures and average to
above average precipitation do not align consistently with recent weather. Uncertainty thus remains high forUS growing conditions during yield formation in July-August. Northern Hemisphere production will
nevertheless exceed last years under any forward weather scenario, as recent and expected temperatures
generally remain lower, and soil moisture remains higher, than last years anomalous levels. Outlooks for a
neutral ENSO and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole do not indicate elevated risk of widespread extreme
drought in Southern Hemisphere production areas such as preceded the 2012 harvest.
2013/14 CORN PRODUCTION
2013/14 China corn production: 216 [204218] million tons, down
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
2/16
CHINA CORN PRODUCTION
Lanworth lowers 2013/14 China corn production slightly to 216 [204218] million tons following review of
weather and imagery. Recent and expected above average precipitation greatly lowers the probability of
extreme drought in key corn production areas but raises the probability of yield losses in the Northeast
region. Short-term weather forecasts call for above normal precipitation into late July. Should wet conditions
continue through August, China corn production could fall as low as 204 million tons. Despite this risk,
higher corn planted area combined with high soil moisture and rapid crop development imply record high
production under most forward weather scenarios.
UKRAINE CORN PRODUCTION
Lanworth holds 2013/14 Ukraine corn production unchanged at 24.2 [22.030.5] million tons. Temperatures
remain moderately above, and precipitation moderately below, normal. Production will fall near Lanworths
lower bound should July-August temperatures reach record levels set in 2010, while an unexpected shift to
decadal low temperatures would raise production to Lanworths upper bound.
UNITED STATES CORN PRODUCTION
Lanworth lowers its median 2013/14 US corn yield estimate by 1% to 156.5 [143.3165.8] bushels per acre
based on recent and expected warm and/or dry conditions, field observations in northern and central Iowa,
and early-season imagery. Temperatures during much of the past two weeks exceeded forecast levels across
US production areas, while precipitation fell 50-90% below normal. Forecasts remain variable but now
indicate warm temperatures in western production areas and normal temperatures in central and eastern
production areas over the next two weeks. Relatively dry conditions are expected to continue in Iowa,
Kansas, much of Missouri, and Nebraska through much of the next one to two weeks. Without above-
average precipitation during the final week of the month, precipitation this July could approach the
historically low levels set last year. Should they be sustained through August, warm and dry conditions could
combine to greatly lower production potential from Lanworths current estimates in Kansas (-75 million
bushels) and Nebraska (-140 million bushels), where soil moisture levels are only moderately higher than
last years lows.
Figure 1: Crop vegetation density for China provinces accounting for 61% of potential corn production, 2013,
2012, and 2007-2011 average, with estimated or expected deviation of 2012 and 2013 corn yield from trend
shown in parenthesis. Crop vegetation density in 2013 is similar to that of 2012, when yields approached trend.
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 2 of 16
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
3/16
Additional risk to Lanworths US corn yield estimate correlates with a shift to extreme warm and dry
conditions in Iowa (-185 million bushels) and Minnesota and Missouri (-60 to -65 million bushels each)
following delayed planting. Initial field observations in central and northern Iowa indicate potentially
significant yield losses due to poor planting conditions and establishment problems. USDAs Objective Yield
data from similar late planted seasons indicate that reductions from trend plant population density and ears
per plant could lower corn yield potential by as much as 4-5%. The Objective Yield data also indicate that,
under relatively warm and dry forward weather, ear weight reductions from trend could further lower Iowayield potential by as much as 10-15%. Ear weight losses as extreme as last year (20% or greater) appear
unlikely, however, due to gains in soil moisture since last year. Lanworths current estimates of yield losses in
Iowa, Minnesota, and western production states are partially offset by yield gains following due to increased
soil moisture and relatively moderate temperatures in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan.
Given recent weather variation, lack of agreement between short- and long-term weather forecasts, and
extreme variability in summer weather following past cool and wet spring seasons, Lanworth continues to
assume equal probability of below-, near-, and above-trend temperature and precipitation after July.
Though a return to favorably cool temperatures cannot be ruled out, early-season imagery over corn
production areas sets likely upper limits to yield in states with extreme planting delays: Iowa, Minnesota,
Missouri, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Taken with Lanworths planted area estimate, current yield
expectations set 2013/14 US corn production at 13,650 [12,40014,700] million bushels. The range indicates
substantial losses from USDAs 13,950 million bushels should warm and dry weather spread and/or
intensify, though normal or cool and wet weather could support production near or above USDAs projection.
2013/14 SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
2013/14 US soybean production: 90.2 [84.294.5] million tons, down 1% from last report
As with corn, variation in 2013/14 world soybean supply depends primarily on July-August precipitation and
temperature over US production areas. Current outlooks for continued neutral ENSO conditions do not pose
extreme risk to USDAs South American soybean production outlooks.
Figure 2: Corn vegetation density profiles for major producing US states, 2013, 2008, and 2007-2011 average,
with actual or expected deviation of 2008 and 2013 yield from trend shown in parenthesis. Corn yields fell near
trend in 2008 when delayed crop development was followed by below-trend summer temperatures. The 2008
yield deviations provide approximate upper bounds for the 2013 season under similarly supportive conditions.
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 3 of 16
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
4/16
UNITED STATES SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
Risks to Lanworths 2013/14 US soybean yield outlook are similar to those for corn. Initial field observations
confirm delayed canopy development across much of northern and central Iowa. Accounting for recent and
expected warm and/or dry weather and likely impacts on pod density and weights in Iowa, as implied by
USDAs Objective Yield data, lowers Lanworths soybean yield outlook by 1% to 42.9 [40.345.0] bushels per
acre. Taken with Lanworths planted area estimate, this yield range sets 2013/14 US soybean production at
3,315 [3,1003,475] million bushels. Achieving USDAs projected 3,420 million bushels would require
relatively wet conditions through the end of August.
2013/14 WHEAT PRODUCTION
2013/14 Australia wheat production: 25.1 [19.229.8] million tons, up
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
5/16
production than last years drought impacted 9.8 million tons. Should relatively normal precipitation and
cool temperatures persist through August, Kazakhstan wheat production could reach 18.6 million tons.
RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION
Lanworth lowers 2013/14 Russia wheat production by 2% to 50.0 [46.553.5] million tons. Updated imagery
and warm conditions indicate winter wheat productivity in the Volga District similar to last years low levels
(40% below the previous 5-year average). Accounting for these losses places 2013/14 Russia winter wheat
production at 28.9 [27.030.9] million tons, up 13% from last year. Despite gains in soil moisture followinglast seasons severe drought, recent and expected warm and dry conditions maintain risk of substantial
spring wheat yield losses in the Siberian and Ural Districts should weather turn anomalously warm and dry
through August. Current weather outlooks indicate some risk that extreme warm weather will occur in this
region through the end of July, though precipitation outlooks are variable. As such, Lanworth maintains a
wide range for potential 2013/14 Russia spring wheat production at 21.0 [19.522.6] million tonsup 73%
from last years drought-impacted harvest.
UNITED STATES WHEAT PRODUCTION
Lanworth raises 2013/14 US all wheat production fractionally to 55.6 [51.759.1] million tons. USDAs July
Crop Production report raised 2013/14 US winter wheat production by 2% to 1,543 million bushels, 3% higher
than Lanworths estimated 1,500 million bushels. Most of the deviation occurs in Kansas, where Lanworths
estimate remains 40 million bushels lower than USDAs based on image analysis and assessment of
drought and freeze impacts in the western part of the state. Lanworth will continue to assess deviations from
USDAs yield and harvested area estimates through elevator surveys over the next few weeks. Lanworth
holds 2013/14 US spring wheat production largely unchanged at 541 million bushels, roughly 5% below
USDAs July estimate. In years when spring wheat planting was as delayed as this year in Montana and
North Dakota (1995, 1996, 1999, and 2002), final spring wheat yields fell near or below trend but neverabove. Lanworth will assess spring wheat growing conditions and yield potential through updated weather,
imagery, fieldwork, and grain elevator surveys through August.
2013/14 AUSTRALIA CANOLA PRODUCTIONLanworths 2013/14 Australia canola production estimate stands unchanged at 3.2 [2.73.7] million tons.
June precipitation was above average in eastern production states and soil moisture remains above average
in Western Australia despite below average June rainfall. Should adequate precipitation and cool
temperatures continue during flowering and pod fill in July-October, production could reach 3.7 million tons.
A return to dry conditions, however, could limit production to 2.7 million tons.
Figure 3: Average April/May-June maximum daily temperature and precipitation, 1985-2013, and crop
vegetation density, 2013, 2012, and 5-year average, in the Volga District. Weather and crop vegetation density in
2013 are very similar those of 2012, when winter wheat productivity fell nearly 40% below the previous 5-year
average. Winter wheat in the Volga District accounts for 9% of potential Russia wheat production.
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 5 of 16
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
6/16
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 6 of 16
P
lantedAr
a
H
rve
stedAea
Yield
Produ
ction
USDA
2012/13
USDA
2013/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
U
SDA
2013/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
USD
A
2013/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
USD
A
2013
/14
LW
2013/14
Arkansas
710
1,000
1,020
695
970
990
178.0
162.2
123,710
160,613
Colorado
1,420
1,250
1,350
1,010
1,020
1,082
133.0
139.7
134,330
151,128
Illinois
12,800
12,200
12,325
12,250
11,900
12,098
105.0
177.3
1,286,250
2,144,862
Indiana
6,250
6,100
6,150
6,030
5,900
5,955
99.0
170.7
596,970
1,016,400
Iowa
14,200
14,000
13,800
13,700
13,500
13,345
137.0
172.1
1,876,900
2,296,046
Kansas
4,700
4,500
4,200
3,950
4,200
3,701
96.0
119.8
379,200
443,274
Kentucky
1,650
1,600
1,650
1,530
1,500
1,529
68.0
148.4
104,040
226,836
Louisiana
540
750
650
530
740
620
173.0
148.1
91,690
91,895
Michigan
2,650
2,800
2,600
2,390
2,470
2,310
133.0
156.5
317,870
361,490
Minnesota
8,750
8,700
8,450
8,330
8,200
7,946
165.0
165.2
1,374,450
1,312,378
Mississippi
820
950
950
795
900
896
165.0
149.3
131,175
133,810
Missouri
3,600
3,450
3,100
3,300
3,250
2,931
75.0
130.4
247,500
382,162
Nebraska
10,000
10,200
10,150
9,100
9,800
9,742
142.0
167.6
1,292,200
1,632,868
NorthCarolina
860
950
900
820
880
822
117.0
106.3
95,940
87,388
NorthDakota
3,600
3,900
3,440
3,460
3,600
2,981
122.0
112.3
422,120
334,663
Ohio
3,900
3,950
4,000
3,650
3,680
3,765
123.0
171.5
448,950
645,826
Pennsylvania
1,460
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,100
1,015
132.0
132.6
132,000
134,619
SouthDakota
6,150
5,900
6,440
5,300
5,300
6,018
101.0
137.8
535,300
829,331
Tennessee
1,040
950
970
960
880
881
85.0
131.2
81,600
115,534
Texas
1,850
2,400
2,400
1,550
2,100
1,630
130.0
89.6
201,500
146,051
Wisconsin
4,350
4,200
4,150
3,300
3,250
3,226
121.0
149.6
399,300
482,769
OtherStates
5,855
6,129
6,129
3,725
4,360
3,875
136.2
138.8
507,301
537,861
UnitedStates
97,155
97,379
96,324
87,375
89,500
87,358
123.4
15
6.5
156.5
10,780,29613,950
,000
13,667,805
Table
1:UScornplantedarea,harvestedarea,yield,andproduc
tionestimatesbystate,2012/13and
2013/14.Unitsarethousandacres,bushelsperacre,
andthousandbushels.
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
7/16
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 7 of 16
P
lantedAre
a
H
rve
stedAea
Yield
Produ
ction
USDA
2012/13
USDA
2013/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
U
SDA
2013/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
USD
A
2013/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
USDA
2013
/14
LW
2013/14
Arkansas
3,200
3,400
3,280
3,160
3,350
3,238
43.0
42.3
135,880
137,081
Illinois
9,050
9,400
9,225
8,920
9,350
9,181
43.0
48.3
383,560
443,235
Indiana
5,150
5,250
5,250
5,140
5,230
5,240
43.5
49.2
223,590
257,891
Iowa
9,350
9,500
9,475
9,300
9,430
9,421
44.5
48.9
413,850
460,745
Kansas
4,000
3,950
4,100
3,810
3,890
4,026
22.0
30.1
83,820
121,105
Kentucky
1,480
1,600
1,500
1,470
1,590
1,488
40.0
40.3
58,800
59,971
Louisiana
1,130
1,110
1,160
1,115
1,080
1,122
46.0
40.5
51,290
45,467
Michigan
2,000
1,900
2,100
1,990
1,890
2,091
43.0
42.9
85,570
89,663
Minnesota
7,050
6,800
7,300
6,990
6,720
7,224
43.0
41.9
300,570
302,682
Mississippi
1,970
1,920
2,150
1,950
1,900
2,122
45.0
42.9
87,750
91,107
Missouri
5,400
5,700
5,350
5,260
5,640
5,269
29.5
40.8
155,170
214,914
Nebraska
5,050
4,800
4,900
4,990
4,750
4,857
41.5
52.5
207,085
254,890
NorthCarolina
1,590
1,700
1,650
1,580
1,680
1,620
39.0
31.7
61,620
51,423
NorthDakota
4,750
4,400
4,575
4,730
4,360
4,534
34.0
31.1
160,820
141,209
Ohio
4,600
4,550
4,600
4,580
4,530
4,586
45.0
50.7
206,100
232,690
Pennsylvania
530
560
590
520
550
580
48.0
43.7
24,960
25,324
SouthDakota
4,750
4,800
4,525
4,710
4,750
4,487
30.0
37.5
141,300
168,182
Tennessee
1,260
1,360
1,400
1,230
1,330
1,357
38.0
33.5
46,740
45,447
Wisconsin
1,710
1,680
1,550
1,700
1,670
1,539
41.5
43.3
70,550
66,711
OtherStates
3,178
3,348
3,348
2,959
3,228
3,214
39.2
32.9
115,973
105,726
UnitedStates
77,198
77,728
78,028
76,104
76,918
77,194
39.6
4
4.5
42.9
3,014,998
3,420
,000
3,315,463
Table
2:USsoybeanplantedarea,harvestedarea,yield,andproductionestimatesbystate,2012/13
and2013/14.Unitsarethousandacres,bushelsper
acre,andthousandbushels.
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
8/16
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 8 of 16
Table
3:2013/14USwinterwh
eatseededarea,harvestedfraction,yield,andproductionestimatesbystateandclass.Unitsarethousandacres,bushelsperacre,
andthousandbushels.
Seede
dAre
a
LW1
3/
4Area
yClass
HarvestFraction
Yild
Prodction
LW2
01
3/14Prod.
yClass
USDA
2013/14
LW
2013/14
HRW
SRW
WW
U
SDA
20
13/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2013/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2013/14
LW
2013/14
HRW
SRW
WW
Arkansas
710
650
3
647
0
0.87
0.86
59.0
59.1
36,285
32,950
165
32,785
0
California
610
610
528
0
82
0.56
0.56
85.0
85.0
28,900
28,900
24,999
0
3,902
Colorado
2,200
2,245
2,200
0
45
0.68
0.74
33.0
28.5
49,500
47,650
46,697
0
953
Idaho
770
770
177
0
593
0.95
0.94
76.0
79.8
55,480
57,440
13,211
0
44,229
Illinois
850
900
0
900
0
0.96
0.96
65.0
64.2
53,300
55,250
0
55,250
0
Indiana
470
440
0
440
0
0.91
0.95
69.0
70.1
29,670
29,430
0
29,430
0
Kansas
9,400
9,600
9,408
0
192
0.87
0.83
40.0
36.3
328,000
290,230
284,425
0
5,805
Kentucky
700
630
0
630
0
0.83
0.83
73.0
73.0
42,340
37,960
0
37,960
0
Michigan
620
640
0
406
234
0.95
0.95
75.0
73.8
44,250
45,000
0
28,575
16,425
Mississippi
410
450
0
450
0
0.93
0.93
57.0
57.0
21,660
23,940
0
23,940
0
Missouri
1,100
1,090
27
1,063
0
0.88
0.88
55.0
54.3
53,350
52,150
1,304
50,846
0
Montana
2,200
2
,170
2,148
0
22
0.98
0.96
43.0
42.2
92,450
88,200
87,318
0
882
Nebraska
1,450
1,360
1,360
0
0
0.80
0.81
36.0
36.2
41,760
39,860
39,860
0
0
NorthCarolina
990
990
0
990
0
0.94
0.93
59.0
55.9
54,870
51,420
0
51,420
0
NorthDakota
350
350
350
0
0
0.91
0.94
40.0
46.9
12,800
15,470
15,470
0
0
Ohio
710
700
0
700
0
0.96
0.97
67.0
68.4
45,560
46,530
0
46,530
0
Oklahoma
5,500
5,670
5,613
57
0
0.64
0.69
33.0
27.8
115,500
108,260
107,177
1,083
0
Oregon
810
810
32
0
778
0.99
0.98
61.0
55.5
48,800
43,830
1,753
0
42,077
SouthDakota
1,200
1,355
1,355
0
0
0.54
0.61
39.0
40.5
25,350
33,220
33,220
0
0
Tennessee
560
550
0
550
0
0.88
0.87
68.0
65.0
33,320
31,220
0
31,220
0
Texas
5,900
5,
990
5,571
419
0
0.34
0.40
32.0
28.5
64,000
68,400
63,612
4,788
0
Washington
1,710
1,730
303
0
1,427
0.98
0.98
67.0
64.7
112,560
110,010
19,252
0
90,758
Wisconsin
330
330
10
317
3
0.85
0.85
57.0
65.5
15,960
18,337
550
17,604
183
OtherStates
3,147
3
,155
754
2,316
85
0.79
0.79
55.5
58.1
137,430
144,763
15,090
126,539
3,947
UnitedStates
42,697
43
,185
29,840
9,885
3,460
0.76
0.77
47.8
45.4
1,543,0951,500,420
754,103
537,970
209,161
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
9/16
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 9 of 16
P
lantedAr
a
Ha
rvestedArea
Yield
Production
USDA
2
012/13
USDA
2013/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
USDA
2013/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
U
SDA
20
13/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
US
DA
201
3/14
LW
2013/14
Arizona
105
65
65
10
4
64
64
95.0
105.0
105.0
9,880
6,720
6,720
California
140
100
100
135
90
90
105.0
95.0
95.0
14,175
8,550
8,550
Idaho
13
5
5
13
5
5
62.0
62.0
806
310
Montana
520
510
475
515
505
465
28.0
30.0
28.0
14,420
15,150
13,027
NorthDakota
1,340
850
950
1,33
0
830
915
32.0
32.0
28.8
42,560
2
6,560
26,296
SouthDakota
5
8
8
5
8
8
23.0
23.0
115
184
UnitedStates
2,123
1,538
1,603
2,10
2
1,502
1,547
39.0
38.3
35.6
81,956
5
7,474
55,087
Table
4:USdurum
wheatplantedarea,harvestedarea
,yield,andproductionestimatesbys
tate,2012/13and2013/14.Unitsare
thousandacres,
bushelsperacre,a
ndthousandbushels.
P
lantedAr
a
Ha
rvestedAea
Yield
Production
USDA
2
012/13
USDA
2013/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
USDA
2013/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
U
SDA
20
13/14
LW
2013/14
USDA
2012/13
US
DA
201
3/14
LW
2013/14
Colorado
13
19
19
12
17
17
89.0
89.0
1,068
1,513
Idaho
520
550
550
50
0
530
530
76.0
77.0
77.0
38,000
4
0,810
40,810
Minnesota
1,350
1,200
1,350
1,310
1,100
1,315
57.0
53.0
53.0
74,670
5
8,300
69,684
Montana
2,950
2,850
2,850
2,90
0
2,800
2,770
33.0
35.0
32.7
95,700
98,000
90,510
Nevada
6
8
8
2
3
3
70.0
70.0
140
210
NorthDakota
5,750
5,700
5,375
5,70
0
5,600
5,143
45.0
41.0
38.6
256,500
229,600
198,518
Oregon
95
100
100
93
97
97
62.0
69.0
69.0
5,766
6,693
6,693
SouthDakota
1,080
1,400
1,200
1,02
0
1,350
1,158
41.0
41.0
48.4
41,820
5
5,350
55,988
Utah
15
18
18
13
16
16
40.0
40.0
520
640
Washington
510
450
450
50
5
445
445
55.0
49.0
49.0
27,775
2
1,805
21,805
UnitedStates
12,289
12,295
11,920
12,05
5
11,958
11,494
45.0
45.0
42.9
541,959
512,921
486,370
Table
5:USother
springwheatplantedarea,harvested
area,yield,andproductionestimate
sbystate,2012/13and2013/14.Unitsarethousand
acres,bushelsper
acre,andthousandbushels.
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
10/16
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 10 of 16
Pl nted Area Harvested rea Yield Production
Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total
USDA 2011/12 11,805 13,747 25,552 11,455 13,299 24,754 2.99 1.64 2.26 34,249 21,811 56,060
USDA 2012/13 11,842 12,843 24,685 11,051 10,245 21,296 2.31 1.19 1.77 25,527 12,192 37,719LW 2013/14 Mean 12,699 12,900 25,599 11,776 12,170 23,946 2.46 1.73 2.09 28,939 21,034 49,973
Table 6: Comparative 2013/14 Russia wheat planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units are thousandhectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons. USDA data from PSD and GAIN.
Pl nted Area Harvested rea Yield Production
Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total
USDA 2011/12 6,657 3.32 22,124
USDA 2012/13 5,700 2.72 15,500LW 2013/14 Mean 6,836 6,490 2.88 18,661
Table 8: Comparative 2013/14 Ukraine wheat planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units are thousandhectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons. Approximately 95% of Ukraine wheat is winter wheat.
Pl nted Area Harvested rea Yield Production
Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total
USDA 2011/12 13,686 1.66 22,732
USDA 2012/13 12,400 0.79 9,841
LW 2013/14 Mean 12,994 12,500 1.36 16,958
Table 9: Comparative 2013/14 Kazakhstan wheat planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units arethousand hectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons.
Table 7: Comparative 2013/14 Ukraine corn planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units are thousandhectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons.
Pl nted Area Harvested rea Yield Production
Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total Winter Spring Total
USDA 2011/12 3,544 6.44 22,838
USDA 2012/13 4,370 4.79 20,922
LW 2013/14 Mean 4,800 4,661 5.19 24,197
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
11/16
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 11 of 16
arvestedAre
Yield
Production
ABARE
S
2012/13
ABARES
2013/14
LW
2013/14
ABARES
2012/13
ABARES
2013/14
LW
2013/14
ABARES
2012/13
ABARES
2013/14
LW
2013/14
NewSouthWales
3,750
3,900
3,860
1.89
1.95
1.95
7,105
7,605
7,536
Queensland
950
970
970
1.84
1.85
2.01
1,748
1,795
1,948
SouthAustralia
2
,160
2,224
2,188
1.70
1.85
1.60
3,672
4,111
3,501
Tasmania
8
8
8
4.09
4.00
4.00
33
32
32
Victoria
1,590
1,630
1,564
1.68
1.87
1.85
2,671
3,050
2,898
WesternAustralia
4,785
4,945
5,016
1.43
1.78
1.83
6,850
8,807
9,154
AustraliaTotal
13,243
13,677
13,605
1.67
1.86
1.84
22,079
25,399
25,069
Table
10:Australiawheatharv
estedarea,yield,andproductionestimatesbyprovince,2012/13and2013
/14.Unitsarethousandhectares,tonsperhectare,
andthousandtons.
Table
11:Canadawheatharvestedarea,yield,andproductionestim
atesbyprovince,2012/13and2013/14.Unitsarethousandhectares,tons
perhectare,and
thousandtons.Productionbyclassis4milliontons(14%)winterwheat,4.5milliontons(15%)durumwheat,and21.2milliontons(71%)othe
rspringwheat.
eededAre
H
rvestedAr
ea
Yield
Production
StatCan
2012/13
StatCan
2013/14
LW
2013/14
StatCan
2012/13
StatCan
2013/14
LW
2013/14
StatCan
2012/13
StatCan
2013/14
LW
2013/14
StatCan
2012/13
StatCan
2013/14
LW
2013/14
Alberta
2,64
1
2,825
2,715
2,60
8
2,716
3.20
3.39
8,369
9,196
Manitoba
1,21
0
1,406
1,140
1,19
4
1,198
3.30
3.47
3,923
4,151
Ontario
38
0
463
457
36
8
451
5.10
5.26
1,883
2,369
Saskatchewan
5,30
7
5,789
5,566
5,23
7
5,482
2.40
2.51
12,727
13,738
OtherProvinces
9
2
110
108
91
105
3.30
2.96
303
310
Canada
9,63
1
10,594
9,986
9,49
8
9,951
2.90
2.99
27,205
29,765
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
12/16
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 12 of 16
arvestedAre
Yield
Production
M
OA
20
11/12
MOA
2012/13
LW
2013/14
MOA
2011/12
MOA
2012/13
LW
2013/14
MOA
2011/12
MOA
2012/13
LW
2013/14
Anhui
819
907
4.43
4.37
3,626
3,963
Gansu
839
875
5.07
5.02
4,256
4,392
Guangxi
566
551
4.32
4.79
2,447
2,641
Guizhou
788
802
3.09
5.52
2,437
4,425
Hebei
3,036
3,234
5.40
5.64
16,396
18,233
Heilongjiang
4,587
5,181
5.83
5.89
26,758
30,530
Henan
3,025
3,242
5.61
5.90
16,965
19,138
Hubei
550
632
5.02
5.27
2,762
3,331
InnerMongolia
2,670
3,125
6.11
6.26
16,321
19,573
Jilin
3,134
3,327
7.46
7.07
23,390
23,538
Liaoning
2,135
2,205
6.37
6.55
13,603
14,453
Shaanxi
1,178
1,213
4.67
5.44
5,507
6,602
Shandong
2,996
3,115
6.60
6.99
19,787
21,758
Shanxi
1,647
1,851
5.19
5.39
8,546
9,985
Sichuan
1,363
1,409
5.15
5.35
7,016
7,533
Yunnan
1,409
1,537
4.25
4.16
5,982
6,390
Xinjiang
728
903
7.11
7.22
5,177
6,513
Otherprovinces
2,074
2,221
5.69
5.86
11,805
13,020
Chinatotal
33,542
34,950
36,331
5.75
5.89
5.95
192,781
205
,772
216,017
Table
12:Chinacornharvestedarea,yield,andproductionestim
atesbyprovince,2011/12,2012/13,a
nd2013/14.Unitsarethousandhectares,tonsper
hectare,andthousandtons.
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
13/16
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 13 of 16
Suply
Use
Balnce
Region
Beginning
stocks
Produc-
tion
Imports
Total
Feed
Other
Domestic
Exports
Total
End
ing
stocks
Stocks/use
World-LW
116.6
2
955.6
9
99.06
1,072.8
1
557.03
375.40
103.85
932.43
140.3
8
15%
World-WAOB
123.57
959.84
99.06
1,083.41
557.03
375.40
103.85
932.43
150.97
16%
US-LW
18.53
347.0
0
0.76
366.2
9
130.82
161.29
31.75
323.86
42.4
3
13%
US-WAOB
18.53
354.35
0.76
373.64
130.82
161.29
31.75
323.86
49.77
15%
China-LW
54.0
4
216.0
0
7.00
277.0
4
156.00
68.00
0.05
224.05
52.9
9
24%
China-WAOB
60.89
211.00
7.00
278.89
156.00
68.00
0.05
224.05
54.84
24%
Brazil-LW
13.4
1
72.00
0.80
86.2
1
46.00
8.00
18.00
72.00
14.2
1
20%
Brazil-WAOB
12.01
72.00
0.80
84.81
46.00
8.00
18.00
72.00
12.81
18%
Argentina-LW
-0.6
0
27.00
0.01
26.4
1
5.30
3.00
18.50
26.80
-0.3
9
-1%
Argentina-WAOB
0.90
27.00
0.01
27.91
5.30
3.00
18.50
26.80
1.11
4%
Ukraine-LW
0.82
24.2
0
0.05
25.0
7
7.00
1.60
16.50
25.10
-0.0
3
0%
Ukraine-WAOB
0.82
26.00
0.05
26.87
7.00
1.60
16.50
25.10
1.77
7%
Paraguay-LW
1.10
2.90
0.01
4.0
1
0.40
0.40
2.40
3.20
0.8
1
25%
Paraguay-WAOB
0.60
2.90
0.01
3.51
0.40
0.40
2.40
3.20
0.31
10%
Other-WAOB
29.82
266.59
90.43
386.84
211.51
133.1
1
16.65
361.27
30.36
8%
Table
13:2013/14worldcornsupplyanduse(milliontons).Lanworthestimatesareboldface.WAOB
estimatesarefromtheJulyWASDEa
ndPSD.
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
14/16
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 14 of 16
Suply
Use
Balnce
Region
Beg
inning
stocks
Produc-
tion
Imports
Total
Crush
Other
Domestic
Exports
Total
End
ing
stocks
Stocks/use
World-LW
59.7
1
283.0
1
104.45
341.87
239.47
31.06
107.21
273.29
68.5
8
25%
World-WAOB
61.52
285.89
104.45
347.41
239.47
31.06
107.21
273.29
74.12
27%
US-LW
3.39
90.2
0
0.41
94.0
0
46.13
3.25
39.46
88.84
5.1
6
6%
US-WAOB
3.39
93.08
0.41
96.88
46.13
3.25
39.46
88.84
8.04
9%
Brazil-LW
18.0
1
85.00
0.05
103.0
6
37.00
3.30
41.50
81.80
21.26
26%
Brazil-WAOB
18.60
85.00
0.05
103.65
37.00
3.30
41.50
81.80
21.85
27%
Argentina-LW
23.2
5
53.50
0.00
76.7
5
38.00
1.68
12.00
51.68
25.0
7
49%
Argentina-WAOB
24.45
53.50
0.00
77.95
38.00
1.68
12.00
51.68
26.27
51%
Paraguay-LW
0.0
0
8.40
0.02
8.4
2
3.30
0.13
5.00
8.43
-0.0
1
0%
Paraguay-WAOB
0.87
8.40
0.02
9.29
3.30
0.13
5.00
8.43
0.86
10%
Other-WAOB
14.21
45.91
103.97
164.09
115.04
22.70
9.25
146.99
17.10
12%
Table
14:2013/14worldsoybeansupplyanduse(milliontons).Lanworthestimatesareboldface.WA
OBestimatesarefromtheJulyWASDE.
Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
15/16
7/27/2019 World Crop Forecast Report
16/16
Lanworth CP19 Wednesday, July 17, 2013 Page 16 of 16
Copyright 2013 Thomson Reuters [Lanworth]. All content provided in this report is owned by or licensed to Thomson Reutersand/or its affiliates (the "Thomson Reuters Content") and protected by United States and international copyright laws.Thomson Reuters and its licensors retain all proprietary rights to the Thomson Reuters Content. Other than permitted underyour agreement with Thomson Reuters (the Agreement), the Thomson Reuters Content may not be reproduced,duplicated, copied, sold, resold, transmitted, distributedor otherwise exploited for any commercial or other purpose withoutthe express prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.Thomson Reuters grants you a limited license to access and makepersonal use of this report and the information contained herein, subject to the terms set forth in the Agreement.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Subscribe to our free newsletters:http://salesandtrading.thomsonreuters.com/commodities_preference
Join our Global Agriculture Forum:
http://commoditiesupdates.thomsonreuters.com/agsforum
Read more about our products at:financial.thomsonreuters.com
Send us a sales enquiry at:financial.thomsonreuters.com/sales
Find out how to contact your local office:financial.thomsonreuters.com/locations
Access customer services at:financial.thomsonreuters.com/customers
NOTICE TO USERS:
Premium and Supported customers have access to TR Lanworth analystsand to preliminary outlooks and estimates prior to official report releases.To learn more about TR Premium and Support services, please contactAlejandro Ramirez-Cisneros at [email protected] +1 (630) 328-0324.
mailto:[email protected]?subject=Lanworth%20World%20Crop%20Production%20Reporthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_6/8a%E8%AF%AA%%D3%A2%0C%E4%BC%99%10%E3%90%B9%07%7C%03P%EB%8F%B2%E8%98%A7%EE%89%88R%E1%A1%85W%EE%B3%964!%E8%AE%A3%E9%80%80http://financial.thomsonreuters.com/customershttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_6/%E9%9E%B7%030V%E2%81%99%EE%B6%A3%E5%9C%81%E7%A3%86x%EE%88%91%CD%B1%EB%81%B1cQ%05)%EC%AB%8E%1Ca_%19%EC%86%B3;u%ED%97%80http://financial.thomsonreuters.com/locationshttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_6/%E9%A5%A5%E4%AA%822%EC%B8%AF%3E%16%EE%9F%BCb%DA%80%02%E5%9F%B8I%C7%AA%D9%99)%C4%95%EF%B8%8A%15%EE%84%BC*%18%E8%80%80http://financial.thomsonreuters.com/saleshttp://financial.thomsonreuters.com/http://commoditiesupdates.thomsonreuters.com/agsforumhttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_6/%1B%CE%A6%EB%B1%A8%12%E2%A1%B5%E9%AE%A5V#%0EV{{%EF%A5%9A%CA%99%C4%AC{%1B%E8%A0%A2%E7%9A%A5%1E{=%DD%AC%22W%E7%A2%91%D8%87%E1%83%92%E7%9A%8B?%03%EF%BF%BD%D3%82%DF%B9%14%3C%ED%80%80http://salesandtrading.thomsonreuters.com/commodities_preference