World Food Prospects

8/6/2019 World Food Prospects

1/32

World Food ProspectsCritical Issues for the Early

Twenty-First Century


2/32

The worlds farmers will have to

produce 40 percent more grain in2020, most of which will have to

come from yield increases


3/32

Almost all the increase in

world food demand will takeplace in developing countries


4/32

Share of increase in global demand

for cereals, 19952020

Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations, July 1999.

Developedcountries

15.9%

Sub-SaharanAfrica10.6%

LatinAmerica11.7%

West Asia andNorth Africa

10.1%

India12.6%

China24.9%

Rest of Asia

14.2%

World = 690 million ton increase


5/32


for meat products, 19952020


Developedcountries

15.4%

Sub-SaharanAfrica5.0%

LatinAmerica16.4%


5.6%

India4.3%

China40.6%

Rest of Asia12.8%

World = 115 million ton increase


6/32

Roots and tubers are criticallyimportant for the poor


7/32


Developed countries2.8%

Latin America9.9%

Sub-Saharan Africa

42.8%West Asiaand North Africa4.6%

South Asia

14.0%

SoutheastAsia

6.0%

East Asia19.9%

World increase = 234 million tons


for roots and tubers, 19952020


8/32

A livestock revolutionis under way


9/32

Per capita demand for meat products, 19952020


8.5

11.2

26.4

26.5

63.7

64.3

85.3

South

Asia

Sub-SaharanAfrica


SoutheastAsia

East Asia

LatinAmerica

Developedcountries

0 20 40 60 80 100

Kilograms

1995

19952020


10/32

Demand for cereals for

feeding livestock will doublein developing countries


11/32

Demand for cereals for human food and

animal feed, 1995 and 2020


1995 2020 1995 20200

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600Million tons

Food Feed

Developed countries Developing countries


12/32

By 2020, demand for maize in

developing countries will overtakedemand for rice and for wheat


13/32

1.23

1.58

2.09

2.35

Rice Wheat Othergrains

Maize0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0

1

2

3Annual percent increase

Increase in demand for major cereals

in developing countries, 19952020


1995 20200

500

1000

1500

2000Million metric tons

Rice Maize Wheat Other grains


14/32

Net cereal imports by developing

countries will almost double to

fill the gap between food

production and demand


15/32

Food prices will remain

steady or fall slightlybetween 1995 and 2020


16/32

World prices of major commodities, 19952020


1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400US$ per metric ton

Rice

Beef (per 100 kgs)

Wheat

Poultry (per 100 kgs)

Maize


17/32

Food insecurity and

malnutrition will persistin 2020 and beyond


18/32

Number of malnourished children, 1995 and 2020

Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations, July 1999

160

135

1995 20200

50

100

150

200

MillionsSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Southeast AsiaEast AsiaWest Asia and North AfricaLatin America


19/32

Emerging Issues

New evidence on nutrition and policy


20/32

Prevalence of anemia in preschool children

and pregnant women by region, 1999

63

4642

22 2118

SEAsia

East.Med.

Africa Europe West.Pacific

Americas0

20

40

60

80

100Percent

24

33

40

5055

76

Europe Americas West.Pacific

Africa East.Med.

SEAsia

0

20

40

60

80

100(percent)

0

20

40

60

80

100Percent

Preschool children Pregnant women

Source: UN-SCN/ACC and IFPRI (1999)


21/32

Estimated contribution of major determinants

to reductions in child malnutrition, 197095

Source: Smith and Haddad (1999)Note: Malnourished children refers to underweight children

Food availability26.1%

Health environment19.3%

Women's status11.6%

Women's education43.0%


22/32

Food security, civil conflicts, and

child mortality, 199096

Source: FAO (1999)

Note: Countries grouped by prevalence of undernourishment.

>50% 38-50% 27-37%undernourished

17-26% 8-16%


23/32

Emerging Issues

Low food prices: What will the future bring?



24/32

Real export prices for wheat, maize, and rice

in selected years, 19101999

Source: Johnson (1999); USDA (1999); U.S. Department of Labor (1999); World Bank (1999)

1910-141930-34

1945-491955-59

19611963

19651967

19691971

19731975

19771979

19811983

19851987

19891991

19931995

19971999

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200 US$ per metric ton

Rice

Maize

Wheat


25/32

Average real prices received

by U.S. farmers, 199599

Source: IFPRI calculations from U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Labor data.Note: For 199597, preliminary April averages are used.

For 1998

99, actual April averages are used.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

Index: 1995 = 100

Wheat

Rice

Maize Sorghum

Soybeans


26/32

Emerging Issues

Trade negotiations: Preparing for the next

WTO round




27/32

African share of world agricultural trade

Source: Mukherjee and Harris (1999)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

2

4

6

8

10

12Percent

African imports/world imports

African exports/world exports


28/32

Most Important Trade Considerations

Domestic policy reforms

Develop the agricultural sectors

Access to industrial-country markets

Eliminate export subsidies in industrial

countries

Strong sanitary and phytosanitary

framework


29/32

Emerging Issues

The potential of agroecological approaches




WTO round


30/32

Emerging Issues





WTO round

The potential of modern biotechnology


31/32

Distribution of economic surplus generated by the use of

round up ready soybean seed in the United States, 1997

(Total net economic surplus, US$360 million)

Source: Falck-Zepeda, Traxler, and Nelson (1999).

U.S. consumers8.0%

Monsanto22.0%

Seed companies9.0%

All farmers48.0%

Other consumers13.0%


32/32

Emerging Issues





WTO round

The potential of modern biotechnology

Information technology and precision

farming: Relevance for small farmers

Date post:	07-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	pt170172
View:	217 times
Download:	0 times

World Food Prospects

Documents