California Energy Commission
ZEV Scenarios and Methods,
2019-2030
DAWG Transportation Meeting
November 14, 2019
Aniss Bahreinian
Transportation Energy Forecasting Unit
Demand Analysis Office
Energy Assessments Division
1
California Energy Commission
Overview
• CEC Transportation Forecasting Methods
and Scenarios
• CEC Revised ZEV Forecasts
• Other Studies & Scenarios
• Pathway Scenarios
• 2030 Comparisons
2
California Energy Commission
2017 Vehicle Population
(from California DMV, NTD)
CA TransportationEnergy Price
Forecasts
Economic/Demographic Forecasts & Other Data
Vehicle Attributes(forecast)
Fuel Price Forecast(from U.S. EIA)
Regulatory ImpactCorporate Avg. Fuel
EconomyCalifornia ZEV Program
California On-road/railTransportation Energy Demand (forecast)
Urban Travel
Intercity Travel
Truck Choice AviationPersonal
Vehicle Choice
Freight Stock & Fuel (forecast)
California Vehicle Population(forecast)
2017 California Vehicle Survey
(Household, Commercial, PEV)
Freight Movement
LDV Stock & Fuel (forecast)
LDV Stock & Fuel (forecast)
Government
Rental & NEV
Other
Bus
Incentives
MD/HD Stock(forecast)
LDV Stock(forecast)
Commercial Vehicle Choice
Transportation Energy Demand Forecasting Models
California Energy Commission
Demand Forecasting Cases:
Electricity Centric
Demand CasePopulation
Growth
Income
Growth
Fuel Prices
Petroleum
Fuels
Electricity
Natural Gas
Hydrogen
High Demand High High High Low
Mid Demand Mid Mid Mid Mid
Low demand Low Low Low High
4
California Energy Commission
2019 IEPR Light Duty PEV Scenarios
2019 IEPR Light Duty PEV Scenarios
INPUTS Low Mid High Aggressive Bookend
PREFERENCES
Consumers' PEV Preference
Constant at 2017 LevelIncrease with PEV market
growthIncrease with PEV market
growthIncrease with PEV market
growthIncrease with PEV market
growth
INCENTIVES
Federal Tax Credit Eliminated after 2019 Decreasing starting 2019 Decreasing starting 2019 Decreasing starting 2019 Decreasing starting 2019
State Rebate To 2025 To 2025 To 2025 To 2030 To 2030
HOV Lane Access To 2021 To 2023 To 2025 To 2030 To 2030
Fuel Prices
Electricity RatesResidential & Commercial
RatesResidential & Commercial
RatesResidential & Commercial
RatesResidential & Commercial
RatesOff-Peak rate for
Residential
ATTRIBUTES
Number of Models Available in 2030
PEV models available in 14 of 15 CEC LDV classes
PEV models available in 14 of 15 CEC LDV classes
PEV models available in 15 of 15 CEC LDV classes
PEV models available in 15 CEC LDV classes
Models available: BEV in 15, PHEV in 15, FCV in 8,
PHFCV in 7 CEC LDV classes
Vehicle / Battery Price (by 2030)
PEV prices based on battery price declining to
~$120/kWh
PEV prices based on battery price declining to
~$100/kWh
PEV prices based on battery price declining to
~$80/kWh
PEV prices based on battery price declining to
~$70/kWh
PEV prices based on battery price declining to
~$62/kWh
Max EV Range (2030) ~333 miles ~341 miles ~341 miles ~341 miles ~341 miles
Refuel Time (2030) 15 -21 min 15 -21 min 10-16 min 10-16 min 10-16 min
Time to Station (2030)
7-8 min Same as gasoline Same as gasoline Same as gasoline by 2025 Same as gasoline by 2025
Forecast
ZEV Stock (2030), Millions
2.8 3.7 4.4 5.2 5.5
5
California Energy Commission
2019 IEPR Revised Light Duty ZEV
Population Forecast
6
2.8 Million
3.7 Million
4.4 Million
5.2 Million
5.5 Million
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Low Mid High Aggressive Bookend
California Energy Commission
2019 Revised Light Duty FCEV Forecast
7
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Low Mid High Aggressive Bookend
California Energy Commission
Studies & Scenarios of Future
Start from Present, with No Specified Desirable End Point
• Forecasts use formal quantitative modelling to predict likely futures based on sound projections of inputs and drivers, or current trends, reflecting uncertainties.
• Managed Forecast makes adjustment to the baseline forecasts to reflect the impact of additional elements for resource planning purpose. Example: CEC’s Additional Achievable Energy Efficiency (AAEE) forecast.
Start with a Predetermined Desirable ‘End’ Point
• Planning Scenarios describe a specific sequence of actions to meet a specific target at some point in future. Example: SCAQMD Planning Exercise.
• Pathway Scenarios investigate possible pathways to the desirable end point. Examples: E3 deep decarbonization study, SCE’s Pathway 2045.
8
California Energy Commission
Forecasts & Pathways
Forecasts Pathways
9
California Energy Commission
Pathway Scenarios
10
California Energy Commission
Same Model, Same Goals, Multiple
Pathways• Energy & Environmental Economics (E3)’s
PATHWAY model has been used in multiple
analysis for CARB, CEC, SCE and others.
• PATHWAY is an economy-wide energy
supply, demand and GHG emissions
accounting tool. It can be used to evaluate
long-term decarbonization plans for reaching
statewide goals.
11
California Energy Commission
Electricity Demand by Sector: Transportation
Electricity Grows the Load, with a Third Dedicated to
Hydrogen Production by 2050.
Source: E3 Deep Decarbonization in a High Renewables Future - Implications for Renewable Integration and Electric System Flexibility, June 20, 2018
Energy Commission Workshop
12
California Energy Commission
Energy Consumption Pathway by Fuel Type: Energy Efficiency, Clean Energy
and Fossil Fuel Reductions to Meet 2045 GHG Goals (SCE, Pathway 2045)
13
Source: SCE Pathway 2045. November 2019. https://www.edison.com/content/dam/eix/documents/our-perspective/201911-pathway-to-2045-white-paper.pdf
California Energy Commission
Electricity Consumption Pathway by Sector and Source:
Transportation Electrification Growing the Load (SCE Pathway 2045)
14
Source: SCE 2045 Pathway. November 2019. https://www.edison.com/content/dam/eix/documents/our-perspective/201911-pathway-to-2045-white-paper.pdf
California Energy Commission
2030 ZEV Population: Goals &
Forecasts (Millions of Vehicles)
15
4.5ZEV0.19
FCEV
5.5ZEV0.42
FCEV
7.9ZEV0.34
FCEV
5.9 ZEV0.76
FCEV
4.2 ZEV
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
CEC Revised 2019High Case
CEC Revised 2019Bookend Case
SCE Pathway** E3 Pathway* HighElectrification
2017 ARB ScopingPlan Update
Mill
ions o
f Z
EV
s
*Source: E3 Deep Decarbonization in a High Renewables Future - Implications for Renewable Integration and Electric System Flexibility, June 20, 2018 Energy Commission Workshop
**Source: SCE, Pathway 2045. November 2019. https://www.edison.com/content/dam/eix/documents/our-perspective/201911-pathway-to-2045-white-paper.pdf
California Energy Commission
How Many Hydrogen Vehicles?
• With a more advantageous range for long distance travel
hydrogen can be used for both LDVs as well as MD/HDV travel.
• E3’s 2018 decarbonization pathways included a high
electrification scenario, with almost a third of the transportation
electricity originating from production of enough hydrogen to
supply 0.8 million light duty FCEVs in 2030.
• Light duty FCEVs in the CEC’s current high demand forecast
shows about 187,000 in 2030, and about 420,000 in the
bookend case.
• SCE’s Pathway 2045 shows 13% of LDV, 5% of MDV and 20%
of HDV trucks will be fueled by hydrogen, in 2045.
16
California Energy Commission
Green Hydrogen• Prior legislation requires 1/3 of hydrogen produced by
state-funded station to be made from renewables.
• SB 662 (Archuleta) requires the CPUC and the
Energy Commission to consider opportunities to
increase grid-responsive production of green
electrolytic hydrogen for use in transportation sector,
and incorporate “green electrolytic hydrogen” into
various transportation electrification definitions.
• All this translates into more electricity demand, as E3
Deep Carbonization Pathway shows, whether the
electricity is grid supplied or generated behind the
meter.
17
California Energy Commission
Age Distribution of Light & Heavy
Duty Vehicles
18
Source: Energy Commission analysis of DMV data
California Energy Commission
Comments?
19
California Energy Commission
Transportation Energy Forecasting Team
– Heidi Javanbakht, Supervisor• [email protected]
– Aniss Bahreinian, Lead Transportation Forecaster• [email protected]
– Mark Palmere, Light Duty Vehicles• [email protected]
– Bob McBride, Freight & VMT• [email protected]
– Jesse Gage, DMV analysis, Aviation• [email protected]
– Elena Giyenko, ZEV Incentives, Other Bus• [email protected]
– Ysbrand van der Werf, Fuel prices, Urban Travel• [email protected]
– Sudhakar Konala, ZEV Attributes• [email protected]
20
California Energy Commission
Behavioral Light Duty Vehicle Choice Models
21
Personal Vehicle Choice
Model
Income Forecast
Fuel Price Forecast
Incentive Assumptions
Vehicle Attribute Forecast
Population Forecast
Commercial Vehicle
Choice Model
GSP Forecast
Fuel Price Forecast
Incentive Assumptions
Vehicle Attribute Forecast
Rental GovernmentStatewide Light Duty Vehicle Demand Forecast
by 7 fuel types , including PHEV and BEVs, and 15 different
vehicle classes.
California Energy Commission
Statewide Light Duty VMT & Energy
Demand Forecasting Models
Statewide Light Duty Vehicle VMT & Fuel Demand Forecast
by 7 fuel/technology types , including: gasoline, diesel, E85, electricity & Hydrogen
Rental Model VMT and
Fuel Demand Forecast by Fuel Type
Commercial (CVC) Model VMT & Fuel
Demand Forecast by Fuel
Type
Government Model VMT
and Fuel Demand
Forecast by Fuel Type
Residential (PVC) LDV Forecast by Fuel Type
Urban Travel Demand Models
Intercity Travel Demand Model
California Energy Commission
Forecasting Zone (FZ) Distribution of Statewide PEV
Population Forecast, by Sector
23
FZ PEV Population
Model
FZ Household Population Forecast
FZ Income Forecast
FZ PEV Population Forecast
FZ Share of Statewide PEV
Statewide PEV Forecast & Sectoral Distribution
FZ PEV Forecast by Sector
California Energy Commission
Forecasting Zone (FZ) Distribution of Light duty PEV
electricity Consumption
FZ Light Duty PEV Electricity Consumption
FZ Share of Statewide
VMT
FZ Share of Statewide
PEV Statewide Light Duty
PEV Electricity Consumption
24
EMFAC County Share of Statewide
VMT
