ECONOMIC BRIEFING REPORT - British Retail Consortium

ECONOMIC BRIEFING REPORT

A detailed summary of trading conditions, consumer demand, and how the UK economy is performing.

GDP, inflation, input prices, labour market, wider economic situation

Weather, footfall, number of visitors to e-commerce websites

Retail sales, consumer confidence, and consumer purchasing power

INSIGHT

February 2021

I N S I G H T

GDP GROWTH CPI INFLATION

UNEMPLOYMENT WAGE GROWTH

BRC – KPMG RETAIL SALES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

MENU

The GFK index rose 5 points in February to -23 from -28 in January.

February 2021

-23

Up from 3.6% in November.

% change – YOY December 2020

4.1%

Up from 0.6% in December.

% change - YOY January 2021

0.7%

Down from 1.8% in December.

% change – YOY, January 2021

-1.3%


December 2020

5.1%

Down from 16.1% in Q3.

% change – QOQ, Q4 2020

+1.0%Exceptional uncertainty remains for the near

future. In the short-to medium term, a release of

pent-up demand will help to prop up demand.

It’s uncertain whether that will happen as it’s

high income households that saved the most

and they might see these extra saving as wealth

as opposed to unspent income. Business

investment needs to be released, but more

clarity is needed. Brexit, though dwarfed by the

pandemic shock, is likely to trigger some

structural changes as supply chains are rerouted

away from the UK.

There are some reasons to be optimistic, as a

sustained vaccination program will help build

confidence and, consequently, bring a faster

rebound.

A LONG WAY TO RECOVERY

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING

LABOUR MARKET P1, P2, P3

INFLATION P1, P2, P3, P4

CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL

BRC - SHOPPERTRAK FOOTFALL

CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY

UK – COVID-19 IMPACT

UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

https://brc.org.uk/retail-insight-analytics

I N S I G H T

MENU

NIESR (Nov Forecast)

VACCINE ROLLOUT LIFTS SENTIMENT

The UK economy is predicted to be smaller by the end of 2021 compared to its size at the end of 2019.

The pandemic has delivered an extraordinary shock to the UK economy, wiping

out six years’ of growth in 2020 alone. After falling by about 25% during spring,

GDP recovered sharply over the summer, but has stagnated since late autumn,

and has probably fallen outright at the start of this year. In Q4, GDP rose by

1.0%, down from 16.1% in Q3. In December, it grew by 1.2%, following

November when it contracted by 2.3%. The service industry was the main driver

of growth in December, as the easing of restrictions early-month built a good

momentum for the retail and the hospitality industries. Wholesale and retail

accounted for 20% of December’s growth. As Christmas approached, the

opening of stores supported spending, while precautions ahead of new trading

terms with the EU led to a significant amount of stockpiling. However, 2020

GDP is almost 10% smaller than what it was in 2019, with household

expenditure 11% smaller, gross fixed capital 9% smaller, and business

investment 15% smaller.

It’s expected that output will rebound in 2021. On the one hand it appears that

the economy has learnt to cope with restrictions. As firms become more agile

when it comes to operating within the health-related restrictions, there is a less

severe drag on the economy and consumption. On the other hand, the

successful rollout of vaccines brings hopes that pent-up demand would be

released. It would also clear some uncertainty, allowing for business investment,

which has been in a holding pattern, to take off.

Some uncertainty will linger as new virus variants develop and some mutations

may reduce vaccines’ efficiency. It’s anyone’s guess how individuals will weigh

their health risks and what that implies for consumer spend and for resource

reallocation in the wider economy away from sectors plagued by health risks.

Recovery of consumer spend is expected to be the driver of recovery in 2021,

but to what extent that will happen is unclear. One big question is around the

release of pent-up demand. Since March, incomes were relatively stable– with

wages largely protected by the furlough scheme, but consumption fell. As a

result, a large amount of savings has been accumulated in the economy. The

Bank of England estimates that between March and November, excess savings

reached £125bn, or around 8% of annual household income, significantly above

historical levels. Substantial further savings are likely to have been accumulated

since then, possibly doubling by the middle of this year. However, it’s unlikely

that much of that saving will be spent.

It is mostly retired households and households in the top 40% that have

experienced marked increases in savings, as their incomes have been largely

maintained while consumption has fallen sharply. Households in the bottom

40% of the income distribution have seen a decline in savings (with the bottom

20% experiencing an almost 10% reduction in savings). It’s uncertain whether

higher income households will spend a large portion of their savings.

2UK ECONOMY

PROJECTIONS FOR 2020/ 2021 UK GDP GROWTH

It comes down to whether these households perceive their savings accumulated

over this period as unspent income or extra wealth. In Economics speak, the

likelihood to spend out of income is higher than the propensity to spend out of

wealth. It’s easy to see how if people used these savings to increase pension pots or

diverted them in financial market investments, they’d be less likely to spend them

once the economy reopens. Lower income households, many feeling financial

strains (it’s reported that in December 17.4% of adults had to borrow to meet their

needs, up from 10.8% in June), are likely to reduce their spend on nonessentials.

Moreover, voluntary social distancing might drag on consumption: people might

not go out and spend if they worry about risks to their own health. Lifting

restrictions can lead to only a partial economic rebound if health risks persist.

The state of the labour market is another determinant of the recovery. Consistent

with economic activity well below its pre-Covid trajectory, the UK’s labour market

is running well below any measure of full employment too. 800,000 jobs have been

lost since the March. Employment fell to 75% in Dec, (from 76.6% in Feb),

unemployment rose to 5.1% from 4% in Feb, and inactivity is on the rise. These

official stats are distorted by the furloughing scheme. The number of people on

furlough in the UK rose in January to 4.8mill up from 4.0mill in December, a 21%

increase. With the imposition of the national lockdown, this was expected. And

while that is way below the extraordinary figure of over 9mill during the first

lockdown, it nevertheless accounts for an astounding 15% of the UK workforce.

In retail, we estimate that furloughs increased from roughly 400,000 in December

to 600,000 in January, or a 42% rise. With the closure of non-essential retail, this

also doesn’t come as a surprise. We expect the number of furloughs in retail to

remain roughly constant until April, when shops may open again.

In addition, redundancies are rising, and that at a faster than they did during the

financial crisis, even with the strong government support in place. This underlines

the severity of the shock the economy experiences. If the financial crisis is anything

to go by, we’re in for troubled waters. Unemployment reached over 8.2% in 2012

only (so unemployment responds with a lag), and it took seven years to gradually

decline to 4%. Reallocation of labour as the economy adjusts to sectoral shifts due

to both Covid-19 and Brexit also suggest a delayed recovery in the labour market.

The furloughing scheme is due to expire at the end of April, but it’s expected that

some kind of fiscal support will continue beyond April. The Bank of England

projects unemployment to reach 6.5% by the end of the year, but to fall to 5% by

the end of 2022.

In sum, exceptional uncertainty remains for the near future.

Dr. Liliana Danila, Economist

4.2%

OECD (Dec Forecast)

5.9%

IMF (Jan Forecast)

4.5%

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY


I N S I G H T

MENU

70%

% of UK businesses trading (25/01 – 7/02)

17.4%

Proportion of adults reporting borrowing money in December

COVID-19 IMPACT

TURNOVER IMPACT

• Between 25/01 – 7/02, 67.2% of all Wholesale and Retail businesses were trading. That compares to 69.9% of businesses in the UK as a whole.

• 31% of the Wholesale and Retail businesses reported their turnover was unchanged, compared to 38% reported by all business on average.

• 11% of the Wholesale and Retail businesses reported their turnover increased and 50% that their turnover decreased. That compares to 7% and 46%, respectively, reported by all business on average.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

• By December 2020, nearly 9 million people had to borrow more money than usual, with the proportion borrowing £1,000 or more increasing since June 2020.

• At the end of June 2020, 10.8% of adults reported borrowing money, rising to 17.4% in December 2020. Of those, the proportion borrowing more than £1,000 increased from 34.7% to 45.1% in the same period.

• Self-employed people were more likely to borrow more than £1,000 than employees in early December 2020 (60.9% versus 49.4% of those who borrowed), and there was a large increase in the proportion of disabled individuals borrowing more than £1,000 (rising from 12.8% to 36.2% of all that borrowed since June).

FURLOUGHED WORKERS

• The number of people on furlough in the UK rose in January to 4.8mill up from 4.0mill in December, a 21% increase. While that is way below the extraordinary figure of over 9mill during the first lockdown, it nevertheless accounts for an astounding 15% of the UK workforce.

• In retail, we estimate that furloughs increased from roughly 400,000 in December to 600,000 in January, or a 42% rise. With the closure of non-essential retail, this also doesn’t come as a surprise. We expect the number of furloughs in retail to remain roughly constant until April, when shops may open again.

3UK – COVID-19 IMPACT

SUMMARYTURNOVER IMPACT, 25/01 – 7/02/21

FURLOUGHED WORKERS

Source: ONS and HMRC.

In December, 13% of furloughed workers were in retail.

SAVING AND BORROWING

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

Up from 10.8% in June. -

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

Don't know or prefer not to say £1,000 or more Less than £1,000

0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,000

01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,0009,000,000

10,000,000

UK and Wholesale & Retail Furloughs

Total (Left axis) Wholesale and retail (Right axis)

2% 3%6%

31%

22%17%

11%8%

2%5%

38%

21%

14% 12%9%

Increasedby morethan 50%

Increasedbetween20% and

50%

Increasedby up to

20%

Not beenaffected

Decreasedby up to

20%

Decreasedbetween20% and

50%

Decreasedby morethan 50%

Not sure

Wholesale And Retail All Industries


I N S I G H T

MENU

5.1%

US

UNEVEN GLOBAL RECOVERY

2020 has been a year like no other, with all economies suffering a deep shock

almost simultaneously. The pandemic and the actions to contain the spread of the

virus have deeply wounded the global economy, despite unprecedented fiscal and

monetary stimulus packages in many advanced economies. With social distancing

measures in place, economic activity plummeted during the first half of the year, as

you can see in the graph, many economies seeing historic falls in their outputs. But

as infection rates subsided, economies opened up, and global activity recovered

materially in Q3. Even so, economic output remains well-below the level seen at the

end of 2019. On this chart, the dark blue markers show how different countries fare

compared to Q4 2019, with the UK economy almost 10% smaller and the US

economy 3.5% smaller (See chart below).

As long as the virus is not tamed, we will not see a return to “normalcy”. A growing

body of literature finds that while the imposition of lockdowns and/ or other

restrictions contributed to the economic contraction, voluntary social distancing in

response to rising infections also played a major part. What you see in the graph

here is the estimated impact of lockdowns and voluntary social distancing on

mobility, with both of these having a sizeable effect. The contribution of voluntary

social distancing was smaller in low-income countries and larger in advanced

economies, reflecting income differences. People in developed countries are more

likely to be able to work from home or access personal savings or social benefits if

they stop working than people in low-income countries.

Bottom line, the message of this research strand is that lifting restrictions can lead to

only a partial rebound in economic activity if health risks persist. With enough virus

prevalence to cause people to worry about risks to their own health, it is likely to

cause a drag on economic activity (See chart on the right)

GDP GROWTH, ESTIMATED (2020) AND PROJECTED (2021, 2022)

4WORLD ECONOMY

IMF 2021 PROJECTED GROWTH (JAN)

Source: IMF, World Economic Output, October 2020.

Dr. Liliana Danila, Economist

5.5%

FRANCE

3.5%

GERMANY

4.5%

UK

3.1%

JAPAN

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

All AdvancedEconomies

Emerging Markets Low IncomeCountries

Lockdown stringency Voluntary social distancing

IMPACT OF SOCIAL DISTANCING ON MOBILITY

Source: IMF, The World Economic Outlook.

-10.0 -9.2

-5.1 -5.4-7.2

-9.0

-5.5

-11.1

-3.4

4.53.0 3.1 3.5 4.2

5.53.6

5.9 5.1

2020 2021 2022


I N S I G H T

MENU

RETAIL SALES – BRC vs ONS

FIG 3 – RSM vs RSI clothing & footwear

FIG 2 – RSM vs RSI food sales

FIG 1 – RSM vs RSI 3 month rolling average

DATA & CHARTS

Monthly 3m rolling avg LFL 3m rolling average total

Date LFL Total Food Non-Food Total FoodNon-Food

Total

Jan-20 0.0 0.4 -0.1 -1.5 -0.8 0.6 -1.3 -0.4

Feb -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.8

Mar -3.5 -4.3 4.9 -6.7 -1.3 5.1 -6.6 -1.4

Apr 5.7 -19.1 6.0 -4.4 0.3 4.5 -17.5 -7.5

May 7.9 -5.9 8.7 -2.1 2.8 5.6 -21.8 -9.4

Jun 10.9 3.4 7.3 9.5 8.4 3.8 -15.0 -6.4

Jul 4.3 3.2 8.2 7.9 7.9 6.1 -4.3 0.4

Aug 4.7 3.9 6.3 7.7 7.0 5.9 1.4 3.5

Sep 6.1 5.6 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.6 3.2 4.3

Oct 5.2 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.4 5.8 4.0 4.9

Nov 7.7 0.9 6.4 6.4 6.3 7.0 1.3 3.9

Dec 4.8 1.8 6.8 5.1 5.8 7.3 -1.5 2.5

Jan-21 7.1 -1.3 7.5 5.6 6.4 7.9 -5.6 0.6

The beginning of 2021 brought no relief to the beleaguered retail industry, as January saw sales fall back into decline for the first time since May, with -1.3% year on year on a Total basis. With England entering another lockdown for all but the first couple of days of the month, this disappointing performance is hardly surprising as all non-essential stores closed their doors and only allowed to serve click and collect customers across their thresholds.

The lockdown also extended the closures for pubs, cafes and restaurants across England, which naturally had a knock-on effect for Food growth as people had fewer options to compete with home cooking. This was reflected in the 7.9% figure for the three-months to January, which further raises the record set since this monitor began. On the other side of the consumer spending equation, Non-Food suffered significantly throughout the month, without a marquee retail event to entice consumers to open their wallets. This resulted in the three-month average slumping to its worst performance since June, with a decline of 5.6% on a Total basis, the last month to also include a nationwide lockdown.

The persistent trends seen over the course of the coronavirus crisis continued once again in terms of their effects on the category performances in January. With large proportions of the country still working from home combined with the necessity for home-schooling, given schools and colleges closed on January 5th, computing equipment and home-office goods performed well once again. Household Appliances also saw strong demand, which was in part due to the halo effect from the strengthening housing market. However, with social functions restricted in the month, the fashion related categories suffered once again. This was also compounded by the lack of holidays on the horizon, which traditionally boost sales of summer clothing during the January sales. In contrast to the fortunes of other home-related categories, Furniture did not follow suit as it saw a decline year on year. However, this was more down to the strong performance seen last January, due to the then-traditional new year high point for the category.

With the aforementioned lockdown weighing heavily on the retail industry for the vast majority of the month, non-essential store closures forced consumers to make their non-food purchases online, even for those taking advantage of click and collect provisions. This naturally led to record growth for Online growth, with consumers far more comfortable using the channel, while also less burdened with uncertainty than during the first lockdown last spring

NEW YEAR SALES SLUMP UNDER LOCKDOWN

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

5

January sales fell for the first time since May 2020.

-5.6%Non-Food Sales

Down from -1.5% in December.

-1.3%Retail Sales


SUMMARY JANUARY

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Se

p-1

8

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Se

p-1

9

No

v-1

9

Jan

-20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-

20

Se

p-2

0

No

v-2

0

Jan

-21

% c

han

ge Y

oY

BRC/KPMG RSM total ONS Retail Sales (value, nsa)

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Se

p-1

8

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Se

p-1

9

No

v-1

9

Jan

-20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-

20

Se

p-2

0

No

v-2

0

Jan

-21

% c

han

ge

Yo

Y, 3

m a

vg

BRC/KPMG RSM total food ONS predominately food stores (value, nsa)

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Se

p-1

8

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Se

p-1

9

No

v-1

9

Jan

-20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-

20

Se

p-2

0

No

v-2

0

Jan

-21

% c

han

ge

Yo

Y, 3

m a

vg

ONS textiles, clothing & footwear (value, nsa) BRC/KPMG RSM clothing & footwear


I N S I G H T

MENU

Large retailers


ONS RETAIL SALES GROWTH – VALUE TERMS

6RETAIL SALES – ONS

SUMMARY JANUARYONS SALES GROWTH – VOLUME TERMSONS & BRC SALES GROWTH – VALUE TERMS

% change on year ago RSI sales RSM Sales RSM LFL

Nov-20 7.5 0.9 7.7

Dec-20 -0.2 1.8 4.8

Jan-21 -2.3 -1.3 7.1

M-Y All

(excl.

fuel)

Predom.

food stores

Depart.

stores

Textiles, cloth.

& footwear

Household

goods

Oth. non-

food

Non-store

retailing

Jan-20 3.7 3.4 -1.9 2.2 -1.1 4.9 13.5

Feb 2.0 3.1 -2.6 1.1 -1.4 0.7 6.4

Mar -3.0 11.6 0.5 -36.2 -10.2 -25.7 6.1

Apr -18.7 5.1 -25.2 -69.3 -51.6 -59.3 23.4

May -9.0 7.8 -14.0 -61.5 -28.6 -47.5 47.3

Jun 1.6 7.0 -6.9 -35.8 -0.4 -17.4 53.0

Jul 2.8 2.1 -6.2 -24.5 11.4 2.4 33.7

Aug 3.9 3.3 -5.2 -15.3 12.2 -1.1 33.0

Sep 5.6 3.6 -1.5 -13.6 10.3 7.4 31.0

Oct 8.5 4.2 1.2 -12.7 18.5 6.6 43.1

Nov 7.5 7.9 2.9 -31.6 19.5 -4.0 47.7

Dec -0.2 1.0 -8.2 -17.7 7.3 -5.1 22.7

Jan-21 -2.3 5.7 -18.3 -46.3 -7.6 -27.5 50.9

LARGE & SMALL RETAILERS

% change on year ago ONS Large Retailers ONS Small Retailers

Nov-20 3.6 21.2

Dec-20 -2.9 10.5

Jan-21 -5.5 9.5

M-Y All (excl. fuel)

Predom. food stores

Depart. stores

Textiles, cloth. & footwear

Household goods

Oth. non-food

Non-store retailing

Jan-20 1.2 1.1 0.7 2.5 -0.5 2.5 0.0

Feb -0.6 0.1 -0.9 -0.4 1.7 -2.6 -2.1

Mar -3.7 9.7 2.5 -35.7 -8.9 -23.2 5.6

Apr -14.8 -3.9 -24.2 -49.2 -45.9 -44.8 17.8

May 10.1 0.4 13.3 17.9 43.5 22.9 20.1

Jun 13.5 0.0 8.8 72.4 44.7 66.7 1.3

Jul 2.2 -2.8 0.6 15.1 4.9 19.6 -3.5

Aug 0.6 0.3 0.4 11.9 2.3 -0.8 -4.3

Sep 1.3 0.7 2.8 1.9 0.2 6.6 -2.0

Oct 1.7 0.0 3.3 -0.6 3.6 0.2 6.7

Nov -2.8 2.9 -2.2 -19.6 0.5 -10.9 -1.7

Dec 0.4 -3.4 -3.7 21.3 -2.4 1.7 2.2

Jan-21 -8.8 1.4 -14.9 -34.7 -19.4 -25.7 3.7

ONS INTERNET SALES

M-YAv. Weekly value of

all retail salesAv. Weekly value of internet retail sales

Internet sales

% YoY

Internet sales as a % of total sales

Jan-20 6858.0 1388.6 8.6 20.2Feb 6937.9 1321.8 6.3 19.1Mar 6893.5 1523.6 13.3 22.1Apr 5964.4 1803.4 33.8 30.2May 6690.7 2197.5 59.4 32.8Jun 7530.2 2345.7 73.3 31.2Jul 7818.9 2204.8 54.9 28.2Aug 7621.4 2035.9 53.0 26.7Sep 7706.2 2026.0 53.3 26.3Oct 8256.5 2333.9 60.9 28.3Nov 9019.7 3261.8 80.3 36.2Dec 9674.2 3024.8 45.6 31.3Jan-21 6700.4 2430.8 75.1 36.3

Source: ONS RSI & BRC RSM

Source: ONS RSI

Source: ONS RSI

Source: ONS RSI

Source: ONS RSI

Fortunes were split in January, with sales falling for large retailers, while robust growth continued for small retailers.

-2.3%

-5.5%

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY ONS Sales



I N S I G H T

MENU

CBI Balance

Up from -50 in January.

CBI Expected

Down from -33 in December.

7CBI TRADES SURVEY

SUMMARY FEBRUARYVOLUME OF SALES – REALISED AND EXPECTEDCBI COMMENTARY

Balance Expected

Feb-20 +1 0

Mar -3 -3

Apr -55 -26May -50 -54

Jun -37 -41

Jul +4 -48

Aug -6 -5

Sep +11 -17

Oct -23 0

Nov -25 -26

Dec -3 -2

Jan -50 -33

Feb-21 -45 -47

Source: CBI Distributive Trades Survey

“Retail sales and orders both fell in the year to February, but at a slower pace than the previous month. Sales were seen as poor for the time of year, but less so than in January. Within retail, grocers were the only sub-sector to report an increase in sales volumes in the year to February, with non-store retailers reporting no change over the year and the majority of other sub-sectors seeing significant declines.

“Overall, retailers expect both sales and orders to fall at a sharper rate in the year to March, with sales remaining poor for the time of year. The level of stocks in relation to expected sales rose above the long-run average in February, for the first time since August 2020, but is expected to fall again in the year to March.

“Quarterly questions found that employment in the retail sector fell at a sharper pace in the year to February compared to November. For the distributive sector as a whole, employment fell at the fastest rate in survey history (balance of -49%), though that was broadly comparable to the rate in August 2009 (-48%) during the global financial crisis.

“Retailers expect to cut back on investment over the year ahead, but the pace of decline eased for the third consecutive quarter. Price growth slowed below the long-run average but is expected to return to an average pace next month. Overall, retailers’ sentiment for the next three months stabilised after deteriorating last quarter.

Meanwhile, wholesalers reported a slower decline in sales volumes in the year to February, compared with last month, and expect a similar drop in the year to March. Motor tradersreported a similar decline in sales volumes as last month but expect a steeper drop in the year to March.”

-45

-47

Retailers expect both sales and orders to fall at a sharper rate in the year to March.

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY


I N S I G H T

MENU

-76.9%UK Footfall YOY


-49.7%

UK Footfall 12-m average

12-m average, below the 12-m average of -44.5% in December.

BRC-SHOPPERTRAK FOOTFALL MONITOR

The UK's footfall contracted significantly in January,

showing a steep decline from the previous month and

remaining significantly down on the level seen last year.

However, with the country in lockdown, this was expected.

With the UK in lockdown, year on year UK Footfall

decreased by 76.9% in January, a 30.8-percentage point

worsening from December. This is the largest drop in the

UK footfall since May 2020 (-81.6%).

8CUSTOMER TRAFFIC – BRC-SHOPPERTRAK FOOTFALL

SUMMARY JANUARYTOTAL UK RETAIL FOOTFALL (% CHANGE YOY)

TOTAL FOOTFALL BY CITY

Source: BRC-ShopperTrak Footfall Monitor

Source: BRC-ShopperTrak Footfall MonitorWith the country in lockdown, unsurprisingly, footfall saw a substantial decline.

GROWTH RANK REGION % GROWTH YOY

1 Belfast -60.7%

2 Liverpool -74.3%

3 Glasgow -75.5%

4 Bristol -78.2%

5 Leeds -78.2%

6 London -78.5%

7 Nottingham -79.6%

8 Cardiff -79.7%

9 Birmingham -83.6%

10 Manchester -88.9%

11 Portsmouth -92.6%

TOTAL FOOTFALL BY DESTINATION (% CHANGE YOY)

Source: BRC-ShopperTrak Footfall Monitor

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

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EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

-90.0%

-80.0%

-70.0%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

High Street Retail Park Shopping Centre


I N S I G H T

MENU

-53.7%UK Footfall

Down from -40.4% in October.

-1.5%

BRC-KPMG Non-Food sales

3-m avg. in December 2020, up from 1.3 in November.

9CUSTOMER TRAFFIC – IPSOS FOOTFALL

SUMMARY DECEMBERREGIONAL FOOTFALL

% CHANGE ON YEAR AGO

London & The South East -61.9

SW England & Wales -50.9

The Midlands -52.1

Northern England -44.8

Scotland and N Ireland -59.2

UK Average -53.7

REGIONAL FOOTFALL: DEC-20

Source: IPSOS footfall data (National)

Footfall dropped significantly in December as restrictions were reimposed.

Note: April, May and Nov 2020 data were not collected.

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

UK RETAIL TRAFFIC

Year-On-Year change:

Quarter-On-Quarter change:

Source: IPSOS footfall data (National).Note: IPSOS did not release data for January.

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

De

c.-1

9

Jan

.-2

0

Fe

b.-

20

Mar

.-2

0

Jun

.-2

0

Jul.-

20

Au

g.-

20

Se

p.-

20

Oct

.-2

0

De

c.-2

0

% c

han

ge

ye

ar-o

n-y

ear

London & The South East SW England & Wales The Midlands

Northern England Scotland & N Ireland


I N S I G H T

MENU

-23Headline GFK confidence


-19Major Purchases confidence


GfK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

10CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (PAGE 1)

SUMMARY FEBRUARY

Headline

index

Major

Purchases

Future

savings

Personal

finances

(past YR)

Personal

finances

(next YR)

Economy

(past YR)

Economy

(Next YR)

Feb -7 +6 +25 -+1 +6 -23 -21

Mar -34 -+52 +21 -4 -+17 -40 -56

Apr -33 -49 +23 -4 -+11 -48 -53

May -36 -41 +21 -+10 -+10 -60 -57

Jun -27 -25 +20 -5 -+3 -60 -42

Jul -27 -26 +14 -4 0 -61 -41

Aug -27 -25 +16 -5 1 -62 -42

Sep -25 -21 +21 -7 +1 -61 -38

Oct -31 -27 +21 -9 +0 -67 -50

Nov -33 -28 +11 -16 -5 -67 -50

Dec -26 -22 +17 -9 3 -65 -35

Jan -28 -24 +18 -8 +2 -67 -44

Feb-21 -23 -19 +19 -8 +4 -64 -30

GFK NOP CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

“The headline confidence score improved by five points this month, driven by an energetic 14-point jump in how we view the economy for the coming year.

"Given this, it is tempting to talk of a return to 'normality', but it might be more realistic to talk of ‘challenges’. We need to be cautious because the positive tailwinds of the vaccination roll-out are being met by the very strong headwinds of unemployment, the threat of inflation and the difficulty that many face in affording day-to-day living costs – all serious issues that can dampen consumer confidence.

"Perhaps the key lies in the healthier score in how people are seeing their personal finances going forward. This is the factor that will impact our spending plans, which, in turn, will fuel the post-pandemic economy. That measure is up two points and is reinforced by an encouraging five-point boost for major purchase intentions. The question to watch for now is: will that fragile confidence in our wallets continue through the balance of the lockdown and beyond?”

Sentiment improved inFebruary, driven by optimism about the economy for the coming year.

LONG-TERM TRENDS

Source: GFK Consumer Confidence Index

Source: GFK Consumer Confidence Index

ABOUT US

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CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Fe

b-1

6

May

-16

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

May

-17

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

May

-18

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

May

-19

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

May

-20

Au

g-2

0

No

v-2

0

Fe

b-2

1

Ind

ex

Sco

re

Headline index Personal finances (next YR) Economy (next YR)

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Fe

b-1

6

May

-16

Au

g-1

6

No

v-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

May

-17

Au

g-1

7

No

v-1

7

Fe

b-1

8

May

-18

Au

g-1

8

No

v-1

8

Fe

b-1

9

May

-19

Au

g-1

9

No

v-1

9

Fe

b-2

0

May

-20

Au

g-2

0

No

v-2

0

Fe

b-2

1

Ind

ex

Sco

re

Major Purchases Economy (next YR)


I N S I G H T

MENU

-22

Outlook on future of the UK economy


-2

Outlook on future household situation


11CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (PAGE 2)

SUMMARY FEBRUARYCONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE OF THE ECONOMY SAW A SIGNIFICANT BOOST IN FEBRUARY

WHICH? CONSUMER INSIGHT TRACKER

Source: Which? Consumer Insight Tracker February 2021. Data is collected via online poll for approximately 2,000 respondents each wave. Results are weighted to be nationally representative

Confidence saw a boost in February, with confidence in the future of the economy and future household situation increasing to pre-pandemic levels.

MISSED OR DEFAULTED PAYMENT RATES DECREASED THIS MONTH

• Consumer confidence has been boosted this month, with confidence in the future of the economy and future household situation both increasing to pre-pandemic levels. Both measures are now at a level similar to that last seen a year ago in February 2020, before the pandemic caused confidence to plummet.

• Confidence in the current state of the economy remains very low, but the increase in forward-looking confidence suggests that more consumers can now see light at the end of the tunnel as the vaccinations programme continues apace. That being said, confidence in the future of the economy has increased before following reduced cases over the summer and vaccine approvals in the autumn, only to drop again the following month, therefore it remains to be seen whether this is a more durable recovery in consumer confidence.

• Increased consumer confidence could mean good news for the economic recovery if consumers feel confident to spend when lockdown restrictions end. Previous research showed that many consumers have been able to save more money during the pandemic, but whether or not consumers spend these additional savings will depend on their confidence to do so.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MONTH

MISSED OR DEFAULTED PAYMENT RATES DECREASED THIS MONTH

• There is also better news this month regarding the financial wellbeing of households. 40% of households reported making at least one adjustment, such as cutting back on essential spending, using an overdraft, or borrowing from friends and family to cover essential spending in the past month, which is consistent with previous months. More strikingly, the proportion of households who had missed or defaulted on a housing, bill or credit payment actually fell in February.

• Last month the number of households who had missed or defaulted on a payment had crept up for two months running, to a high in January. However, this rate decreased significantly in February, although this does vary across different types of payment.

• It’s possible that the increase in December and January could have been caused by increased household expenses during the Christmas period. Issues with problem debt are known to be more common after Christmas and increased financial pressures resulting from the pandemic might have exacerbated this.

• Although the overall missed or defaulted payment rate has decreased this month, the decline is smaller among some groups of consumers. The rate fell among people who have been furloughed or lost hours because of the crisis, whilst it dropped by nearly half for those working as usual. The continued high rates among these groups could yet point to difficulties ahead if, as forecast, the unemployment rate increases in the coming months.

• The proportion of households currently on a payment holiday or plan for a bill, housing, credit card or loan payment was almost identical to last month.

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

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CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY


https://consumerinsight.which.co.uk/articles/consumer-sentiment-february-2021

I N S I G H T

MENU

-2.2%SPI Inflation


0.2%SPI Food Inflation


BRC - NIELSEN SHOP PRICE INDEX

12INFLATION (PAGE 1)

SUMMARY JANUARY

BRC - NIELSEN SPI & ONS CPI (ALL)

ONS RETAIL SALES IMPLIED DEFLATORS

Overall Food Non-foodJan-20 -0.3 1.6 -1.5

Feb -0.6 1.6 -1.9

Mar -0.8 1.1 -1.9

Apr -1.7 1.8 -3.7

May -2.4 1.5 -4.6

Jun -1.6 1.5 -3.4

Jul -1.3 1.5 -2.9

Aug -1.6 1.3 -3.4

Sep -1.6 1.2 -3.2

Oct -1.2 1.2 -2.7

Nov -1.8 1.3 -3.7

Dec -1.8 0.4 -3.2

Jan-21 -2.2 0.2 -3.6

BRC- NIELSEN SPI (FOOD) & ONS CPI (FOOD & DRINK)

% change

in prices,

year-on-year

All

retailing

(excl.

auto. fuel)

FoodAll Non-

food

Textiles,

clothing and

footwear

Household

goods

Non-store

retailing

Jan-20 -0.6 0.3 -1.5 -2.8 -1.9 -1.3

Feb 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.6 0.5

Mar 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6

Apr -0.7 -0.4 -1.3 -1.5 -1.9 -1.8

May 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.1

Jun -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.8 0.6

Jul -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1

Aug 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4

Sep 0.3 -0.5 1.0 2.2 0.9 0.9

Oct 0.4 0.3 0.6 1.9 -0.5 0.5

Nov -0.7 -0.3 -0.9 -2.1 -0.3 -0.7

Dec 0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.1 1.6 0.6

Jan-21 -0.4 0.7 -1.3 -3.9 -1.1 -1.6

Source: ONS Implied deflators (%YoY)

IMPLIED DEFLATORS – YoY SERIES

Source: ONS Implied deflators (%YoY)

Food prices rose at the slowest pace since January 2017.

Source: BRC - Nielsen Shop Price Index (Read full report)

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

Jan

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jul-

20

Oct

-20

Jan

-21

% c

han

ge

on

ye

ar a

go

SPI (Overall) CPI All Items

-4.0-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.0

Jan

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Jul-

16

Oct

-16

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

Jan

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jul-

20

Oct

-20

Jan

-21

% c

han

ge

on

ye

ar a

go

SPI (Food) CPI Food & non-alc. drink

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Se

p-1

8

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Se

p-1

9

No

v-1

9

Jan

-20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-

20

Se

p-2

0

No

v-2

0

Jan

-21

% c

han

ge

ye

ar-o

n-y

ear

All retailing (excl. auto. fuel) Food Non-food Non-store retailing


https://brc.org.uk/retail-insight-analytics/other-kpis/shop-price-index/reports

https://brc.org.uk/retail-insight/content/monitors/shop-price-index/reports/012021_spi/

I N S I G H T

MENU

0.7%CPI


-0.7%CPI Food

Up from -1.4% in December.

ONS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)


SUMMARY JANUARY

CATEGORY FIGURES, %, YOY

CPIH: CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE ANNUAL RATE

CPIRetail Price Index,

all items (RPI)

All Items excl. mortgage interest payments (RPIX)

Jan-20 1.8 2.7 2.8

Feb 1.7 2.5 2.5

Mar 1.5 2.6 2.7

Apr 0.8 1.5 1.6

May 0.5 1.0 1.3

Jun 0.6 1.1 1.3

Jul 1.0 1.6 1.9

Aug 0.2 0.6 0.8

Sep 0.5 1.1 1.4

Oct 0.7 1.3 1.5

Nov 0.3 0.9 1.1

Dec 0.6 1.2 1.4

Jan-21 0.7 1.4 1.6

Source: ONS.

Source: ONS.

Food & non-

alcoholic beverages

Clothing & Footwear

Housing & household

services

Furniture & household

goodsTransport

Restaurants & hotels

Jan-20 1.4 0.2 2 0.2 1.8 2.2

Feb 1.2 0.2 1.8 0.1 1.8 2.5

Mar 1.3 -1.2 1.7 0 1.3 2.1

Apr 1.3 -2.9 -1.1 -0.4 -1 2.4

May 1.8 -3.1 -1.2 -0.7 -1.7 2

Jun 1.1 -2.2 -1.1 -0.5 -1.6 1.8

Jul 0.8 -0.1 -0.9 0.8 -0.7 1.8

Aug 0.4 -1.4 -0.8 0.4 -1 -2.8

Sep -0.1 -1.5 -0.9 -0.5 0.9 -0.7

Oct 0.6 0 -1.3 0.1 1.2 -0.5

Nov -0.6 -3.6 -1.4 -0.3 1 0.4

Dec -1.4 -1.8 -1.3 -0.7 1.9 0.1

Jan-21 -0.7 -3.4 -1.2 1 2.1 1.1

RPI: CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE ANNUAL RATE

Despite January’s lockdown, prices rose in all categories except Fashion and Food & Non-Alcoholic beverages.

HEADLINE FIGURES, %, YOY

ABOUT US

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FORECASTS

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CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

-0.22

-0.05

0.03

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.05

0.08

0.11

0.19

0.27

0.35

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Clothing and footwear

Food and non-alcoholic beverages

Health

Miscellaneous goods and services

Communication

Furniture, household equipment and…

Education

Restaurants and hotels

Alcoholic beverages and tobacco

Housing, water, electricity, gas and…

Transport

Recreation and culture

% change over 12 months

-0.36

-0.13

-0.06

0.04

0.07

0.09

0.11

0.12

0.13

0.13

0.15

0.18

0.21

0.69

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

Fuel and light

Motoring expenditure

Food

Alcoholic drink

Catering

Personal goods and services

Leisure goods

Household services

Tobacco

Fares and other travel costs

Clothing and footwear

Leisure services

Household goods

Housing

% change over 12 months


I N S I G H T

MENU

-0.2%PPI- Output Inflation

Up from -0.5 in December.

0.5%PPI- Food Inflation



SUMMARY JANUARYPPI OUTPUT PRICES YOY % CHANGE

All Output Prices (LHS)

All excl. Food, Beverages, Tobacco &

Petroleum (LHS)

Food Products (LHS)

Coke and refined petroleum products

(RHS)

Jan-20 0.8 0.3 1.0 7.8

Feb 0.5 0.6 1.2 -2.8

Mar -0.2 0.7 1.3 -18.5

Apr -1.7 0.6 0.9 -40.0

May -2.3 0.7 0.3 -45.8

Jun -1.7 0.5 0.2 -35.4

Jul -1.7 0.2 0.3 -31.5

Aug -1.7 -0.1 0.8 -32.3

Sep -1.7 0.1 1.2 -36.2

Oct -1.4 0.6 1.0 -35.0

Nov -0.6 1.0 1.7 -30.2

Dec -0.5 1.1 0.9 -25.0

Jan-21 -0.2 1.4 0.5 -22.2

Source: ONS Producer Price Index – Output Prices

Source: ONS Producer Price Index – Output Prices

PPI OUTPUT PRICES

Output prices fell at the lowest rate since March 2020.

Source: ONS Producer Price Index – Output Prices: growth rates

The factory gate price (PPI output price) is the amount received by UK producers for the goods that they sell to the domestic market. It includes the margin that businesses make on goods, in addition to costs such as labour, raw materials and energy, as well as interest on loans, site or building maintenance, or rent.

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

-22.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.5

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.6

2.1

-25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0

Petroleum products (excl. duty)

Tobacco and alcohol (excl. duty)

Paper and printing

Food products

Transport equipment

Clothing, textile and leather

Other manufactured products

Metal, machinery and equipment

Computer, electrical and optical

Chemical and pharmaceutical

Percentage points

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep

-19

No

v-1

9

Jan

-20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-

20

Sep

-20

No

v-2

0

Jan

-21

% c

ha

ng

e y

ea

r-o

n-y

ea

r

All Output Prices (LHS)All excl. Food, Beverages, Tobacco & Petroleum (LHS)Food Products (LHS)Coke and refined petroleum products (RHS)


I N S I G H T

MENU

1.2%PPI - Input Inflation


1.7%Electricity Inflation



SUMMARY JANUARYPPI INPUT PRICES YOY % CHANGE

All Input

pricesCrude Oil Electricity Gas

Imported Food

Materials

Home-

produced

Food Materials

Jan-20 0.0 9.0 3.9 -2.0 2.0 -0.4

Feb -0.7 -10.6 -0.9 -6.2 3.3 -1.6

Mar -1.8 -40.3 0.4 -6.4 5.8 -2.8

Apr -4.6 -62.6 -5.9 -15.7 3.1 -6.1

May -4.3 -58.9 -7.0 -15.8 2.0 -6.8

Jun -2.9 -37.6 -5.4 -10.6 -0.6 -5.7

Jul -2.9 -33.2 -2.8 -12.3 -1.2 -5.5

Aug -2.9 -31.3 -4.5 -9.6 -2.9 -5.8

Sep -2.3 -35.4 -2.0 -6.8 -0.6 -5.5

Oct -1.2 -33.9 1.0 -1.6 3.2 -4.1

Nov -0.3 -30.6 -3.1 -7.9 3.7 -2.7

Dec 0.6 -26.9 0.2 -4.8 3.3 -1.8

Jan-21 1.2 -21.9 1.7 -2.2 1.4 -1.3

Source: ONS Producer Price Index

PPI INPUT PRICES

Input prices rose for the second consecutive month in January, having fallen each month from February to November.

Source: ONS Producer Price Index

Source: ONS Producer Price Index - Input prices, growth rates.

The PPI input price measures the price of materials and fuels bought by UK manufacturers for processing. It includes materials and fuels that are both imported or sourced within the domestic market. It is not limited to materials used in the final product but includes what is required by businesses in their normal day-to-day running, such as fuels.

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

-21.8

-1.3

0.1

0.9

1.4

1.4

2.4

2.7

2.8

7.1

-25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

Crude oil

Other produced materials

Other inputs

Beverages & tobacco

Imported food materials

Other parts and equipment

Chemicals

Home food materials

Fuel excluding Climate Change Levy

Metals & non-metallic minerals

Percentage points

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Se

p-1

9

No

v-1

9

Jan

-20

Mar

-20

May

-20

Jul-

20

Se

p-2

0

No

v-2

0

Jan

-21

% c

ha

ng

e y

ea

r-o

n-y

ea

r

All Input Prices Crude Oil Electricity Gas


I N S I G H T

MENU

7.2%Claimant Rate

Down to 7.2% in Jan from 7.3% in Dec.

75.0%Total Employment

Down in Dec from 75.2% in Nov.

UK EMPLOYMENT

In the three months to December 2020:

• The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.0%; this is 1.5 percentage points down on the same period the previous year and 0.3 percentage points down compared with the previous quarter (July to September 2020)

• The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 5.1%; this is 1.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous quarter

• Estimates show 32.39 million people aged 16 years and over in employment, 541,000 fewer than a year earlier. This was the largest annual decrease since May to July 2009.

• The single-month and weekly estimates of the employment rate suggest that the rate was lower towards the end of the three-month period.

• The single-month and weekly estimates of the unemployment rate suggest that the rate was largely flat in this three-month period.

16LABOUR MARKET (PAGE 1)

SUMMARYLABOUR FORCE SURVEY

EMPLOYMENT (3 MONTHS ENDING)

Employment (3 months ending) (000s) Total Full-time Part-time

Dec-19 32934 24416 8517

Jan 32985 24463 8522

Feb 33073 24455 8618Mar 33005 24356 8650

Apr 32840 24276 8564

May 32744 24341 8403

Jun 32671 24402 8269

Jul 32665 24410 8256

Aug 32591 24390 8200

Sep 32507 24396 8111

Oct 32522 24460 8061

Nov 32503 24489 8014

Dec-20 32393 24435 7958

Source: ONS release & data link: Labour Market Statistics February 2021

Source: (000s) ONS release & data link: Labour Market Statistics February 2021

Unemployment reached 5.1% in December, 1.3 percentage higher than a year earlier.

Claimant Count Unemployment

‘000s % rate ‘000s % rate

Jan-20 1228.8 3.4 1343 3.9

Feb 1234.7 3.4 1364 4.0

Mar 1240.1 3.5 1365 4.0

Apr 2098.2 5.8 1367 4.0

May 2662.8 7.4 1384 4.1

Jun 2594.3 7.2 1381 4.1

Jul 2664.2 7.4 1451 4.3

Aug 2703.7 7.5 1522 4.5

Sep 2663.5 7.4 1624 4.8

Oct 2599.4 7.2 1692 4.9

Nov 2637.5 7.3 1724 5.0

Dec 2617.1 7.3 1744 5.1

Jan-21 2597.1 7.2

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY


https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/february2021

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/february2021

I N S I G H T

MENU

4.1%Regular pay growth


4.7%Total pay growth


EARNINGS


SUMMARY DECEMBERAVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS GROWTH

Between October 2019 and December 2019 and October 2020 and December 2020:

Total pay was estimated to have increased by 4.7% in

nominal terms and by 3.8% in real terms.

Regular pay was estimated to have increased by 4.1% in nominal terms and by 3.3% in real terms.

Average regular pay (excluding bonuses) was estimated

at £534 per week in nominal terms (not adjusted for

inflation), above the estimate for a year earlier (£511 per

week) and £489 per week in real terms (constant 2015

prices), higher than the estimate for a year earlier (£472

per week), and after having fallen back to £464 per week

in April 2020.

Average total pay (including bonuses) was estimated at

£571 per week in nominal terms (not adjusted for

inflation), higher than the estimate for a year earlier (£542

per week) and £523 per week in real terms (constant

2015 prices), higher than the estimate for a year earlier

(£501 per week).

Average Weekly Earnings

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Real Average Weekly Earnings

Dec-19 3.2 1.3 1.9

Jan 3 1.8 1.2Feb 2.9 1.7 1.2

Mar 2.6 1.5 1.1

Apr 1.7 0.8 0.9

May 0.7 0.5 0.2

Jun -0.1 0.6 -0.7

Jul 0.2 1 -0.8

Aug 0.9 0.2 0.7

Sep 1.9 0.5 1.4

Oct 2.8 0.7 2.1Nov 3.6 0.3 3.3

Dec-20 4.1 0.6 3.5

LONG TERM EARNINGS SERIES

Note: The average weekly earnings measure used is ‘regular pay,’ which excludes bonuses and arrears.

Real pay outpacedinflation inDecember.

OVER THE 3 MONTHS TO DECEMBER

Source: ONS.

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

De

c-1

1

Ap

r-1

2

Au

g-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ap

r-1

3

Au

g-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Au

g-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ap

r-1

5

Au

g-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ap

r-1

6

Au

g-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ap

r-1

7

Au

g-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ap

r-1

8

Au

g-1

8

De

c-1

8

Ap

r-1

9

Au

g-1

9

De

c-1

9

Ap

r-2

0

Au

g-2

0

De

c-2

0

Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Real Average Weekly Earnings


I N S I G H T

MENU

3,026Total Retail Jobs (mill)

In Q3, 78,000 fewer jobs than in Q2 and 22,000 fewer than a year ago.

-2.5%Retail jobs growth, YOY

In Q3 2020 compared to Q3 2019.

BRC RETAIL JOBS REPORT


SUMMARY Q3 2020

Source: ONS.

8.8% out of all UK jobs were in retail in Q3 2020.

Source: BRC Retail Jobs Report – Q3 2020

The UK retail industry generated £393.7bn in sales in

2019 and added £103.9bn to the UK’s economy, or 5.2%

of the UK’s Gross Value Added (GVA).

Retail is the largest UK private employer: through nearly

200,000 separate enterprises, it provides more than 3

million jobs amounting to almost 8.6% of the total UK

jobs.

The most recent data shows that

• There were 3,026 mill jobs in retail, 22,000 fewer jobs than a year ago, a decline of 0.7%.

• Compared to Q2 2020, there were 78,000 fewer jobs, a decline of 2.5%.

• Using the 4-quarter averages, in Q3 there were 3,084 mill jobs, a 0.4% YOY decline.

During the last decade, growth in employment in retail has lagged behind the overall UK economy. Over the last few years, retail lost jobs, while the UK economy grew and added jobs. This is easier to see in the bottom figure where the number of jobs was indexed at 100 in December 2010. The proportion of retail jobs as a proportion of all UK jobs has been steadily declining: the retail employment share of the UK total employment has been falling: in Q1 2008 it stood at 10.1% of the UK employment, while in Q3 2020 it fell to 8.8%.

RETAIL AND UK JOB GROWTH (Dec 2010 = 100)

NUMBER OF JOBS (in ‘000, 4Q average)

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

35,000

36,000

3,000

3,020

3,040

3,060

3,080

3,100

3,120

3,140

3,160

3,180

3,200

Mar

11

Se

p 1

1

Mar

12

Se

p 1

2

Mar

13

Se

p 1

3

Mar

14

Se

p 1

4

Mar

15

Se

p 1

5

Mar

16

Se

p 1

6

Mar

17

Se

p 1

7

Mar

18

Se

p 1

8

Mar

19

Se

p 1

9

Mar

20

Se

p 2

0

Retail (LHS) UK (RHS)

90

95

100

105

110

115

Mar

11

Se

p 1

1

Mar

12

Se

p 1

2

Mar

13

Se

p 1

3

Mar

14

Se

p 1

4

Mar

15

Se

p 1

5

Mar

16

Se

p 1

6

Mar

17

Se

p 1

7

Mar

18

Se

p 1

8

Mar

19

Se

p 1

9

Mar

20

Se

p 2

0

Retail UK


https://brc.org.uk/retail-insight/content/monitors/retail-jobs-report/reports/retailjobsreportdec20/

I N S I G H T

MENU

-0.9bnNet consumer credit

Up from -1.4bn in Nov.

13.9%Mortgage lending, YOY

Up from 3.3% in Nov.

MONEY & CREDIT

19CREDIT & HOUSING

SUMMARY DECEMBERCONSUMER CREDIT

• Mortgage approvals for house purchase in 2020 (818,500) were higher than in 2019 (789,100), notwithstanding house purchase approvals hitting a record low of 9,400 in May 2020.

• Net mortgage borrowing remained strong at £5.6 billion in December. Effective interest rates on new mortgage borrowing rose to 1.90%, the highest since October 2019.

• Consumer credit was weak in 2020, with individuals making net repayments of £16.6 billion. Effective rates on new personal loans was 5.38% in December.

• Private non-financial companies borrowed £1.6 billion from capital markets in December, resulting in a total of £52.6 billion borrowing in 2020, well above £7.4 billion in 2019.

• Net bank borrowing by small and medium sized businesses was a record £43.3 billion in 2020 compared to £1.4 billion in 2019. Large businesses made net repayments of £5.8 billion in 2020 compared to net borrowing of £13.8 billion in 2019.

• Household deposits increased by £20.9 billion in December, the strongest since May. Business deposit flows strengthened at £15.8 billion. Deposit interest rates remained at historically low levels.

Consumer Credit monthly changes £

Credit Cards monthly changes

£

Housing loansmonthly changes

£

Mortgage approvals for house purchase

Dec-19 1289 504 4074 67112

Jan 811 62 3627 70774

Feb 736 -82 3651 73149

Mar -3109 -2308 5225 56074

Apr -7229 -4798 -30 15886

May -4610 -1826 1600 9348

Jun -661 -397 2212 40384

Jul 1348 929 2867 67561

Aug 6 -5 3153 86174

Sep -835 -760 5046 92594

Oct -649 -653 4628 98338

Nov -1467 -891 5728 104969

Dec-20 -965 -825 5586 103381

CONSUMER CREDIT (5-YEAR SERIES)

GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING

Source: UK Finance

Gross Mortgage Lending £m MOM YOY

Jul-20 19987 21.44 -17.9Aug 19065 -4.61 -20.7Sep 21879 14.76 -2.0Oct 24777 13.25 -2.3Nov 24205 -2.31 3.3Dec-20 25569 5.64 13.9

Source: Bank of England, all figures in millions

Source: Bank of England

Consumer credit was weak in 2020, with households making net repayments of £16.6bn.

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

-9,000

-7,500

-6,000

-4,500

-3,000

-1,500

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

De

c-1

5

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Mar

-18

Jun

-18

Se

p-1

8

De

c-1

8

Mar

-19

Jun

-19

Se

p-1

9

De

c-1

9

Mar

-20

Jun

-20

Se

p-2

0

De

c-2

0

£ M

illi

on

s

Consumer credit exc. Student loans Housing loans Net 3 month avg


I N S I G H T

MENU DOLLAR, EURO, YUAN, YEN

EXCHANGE RATES

USD PER GBP, EURO PER GBP

Source: Average monthly exchange rate, Bank of England

IMPACTS FROM CURRENCY DEPRECIATION YUAN PER GBP, YEN PER GBP



If Sterling depreciates, it can buy less foreign currency and therefore fewer foreign goods. This means retailers have to pay more for imports overall. There is no impact in the short-run, however, with retailers commonly using 6-12 months hedging contracts to protect themselves against currency fluctuations. Any permanent shock to the currency - i.e. a sustained sterling depreciation - takes one to two years to feed through in final consumer prices.

From the perspective of the wider economy, in theory, a pound depreciation should also stimulate exports, since domestically produced goods are cheaper to foreigners, which would increase the demand for UK produced goods.

However, this failed to materialise following the post-referendum depreciation from 2016, most likely due to specialised supply chains.

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

3.8%USD TO GBP, YOY

Sterling appreciation in relation to the USD YoY.

-5.1%EURO TO GBP, YOY

Sterling depreciation in relation to the Euro YoY.

SUMMARY JANUARY

The Sterling continued on its appreciation course against the US dollar in January.

20

US dollar ($) per pound sterling (£)

Euro (€) per pound sterling (£)

Chinese Yuan (¥) per pound sterling

(£)

Japanese Yen (¥) per pound sterling

(£)

Jan-20 1.31 1.18 8.94 142.84

Feb-20 1.30 1.19 9.06 142.57

Mar-20 1.24 1.12 8.27 133.07

Apr-20 1.24 1.14 8.85 133.69

May-20 1.23 1.13 8.71 131.93

Jun-20 1.25 1.11 8.75 134.79

Jul-20 1.27 1.11 8.77 135.44

Aug-20 1.31 1.11 9.11 139.19

Sep-20 1.30 1.10 8.76 136.84

Oct-20 1.30 1.10 8.70 136.61

Nov-20 1.32 1.12 8.71 137.92

Dec-20 1.34 1.10 8.82 139.42

Jan-21 1.36 1.12 8.83 141.52

1.001.051.101.151.201.251.301.351.401.451.501.551.601.651.701.75

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

Jan

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jul-

20

Oct

-20

Jan

-21

Euro

s per £

sterling

US

$ p

er £

Ste

rlin

g

US dollar ($) per pound sterling (£) Euro (€) per pound sterling (£)

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

8.10

8.30

8.50

8.70

8.90

9.10

9.30

Jan

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jul-

17

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Ap

r-1

8

Jul-

18

Oct

-18

Jan

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Jul-

19

Oct

-19

Jan

-20

Ap

r-2

0

Jul-

20

Oct

-20

Jan

-21

Japan

ese

Ye

n p

er £C

hin

ese

Yu

an p

er

£

Chinese Yuan per £, LHS Japanese Yen per £, RHS


I N S I G H T

MENU

0.4%Sunshine hours

Jan-21 saw more sun than Jan-20.

12%Precipitation

Jan-21 saw more rain than Jan-20.

MET OFFICE WEATHER DATA

21WEATHER

SUMMARY JANUARYTEMPERATURE, SUNSHINE, RAIN

Regions Max Temp Min Temp Mean Temp Sunshine Hours Rainfall

Actual Anomaly Actual Anomaly Actual Anomaly Actual Anomaly Actual Anomaly

°C °C °C °C °C °C Hours % mm %

UK 4.9 -1.5 -0.5 -1.4 2.2 -1.5 44.7 95 136.6 113

England 5.7 -1.2 0.2 -1.1 2.9 -1.2 42.5 78 124.0 150

North England

4.6 -1.6 -0.7 -1.4 2.0 -1.5 47.1 95 152.2 162

South England

6.3 -1.1 0.6 -0.9 3.4 -1.0 40.1 71 109.2 142

Midlands 5.5 -1.3 0.0 -1.0 2.7 -1.1 39.7 76 122.0 165

Wales 5.9 -0.9 0.6 -0.9 3.3 -0.8 34.4 71 208.4 133

Scotland 3.1 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 0.5 -2.1 48.6 136 141.0 80

N Ireland 5.8 -1.3 0.1 -1.3 2.9 -1.4 57.5 129 119.1 102

January was colder and had more sun and rain than a year ago.

The columns headed ‘Anomaly’ show the differences from or percentages of the long-term averages

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Te

mp

(°C

)

Mean temp °C, UK

2019 2020 2021

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0


No

. of

Ho

urs

Sunshine hours, UK

2019 2020 2021

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0


Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Rainfall (mm), UK

2019 2020 2021


I N S I G H T

MENU

4.3%GDP 2021

Below previous projections of 4.7%.

2.4%Avg. Earnings 2021

Above previous projections of 1.9%.

LONG-TERM FORECASTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY

22FORECASTS

SUMMARY FORECASTS

2021 2022 2023 2024

City OBR Indep. OBR Indep. OBR Indep. OBR

GDP 4.3 5.5 6.0 6.6 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7

Cons. Spending 4.9 1.2 6.9 1.2 n/a 1.4 n/a 1.4

CPI (Q4) 2.1 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9

Avg Earnings 2.4 2.1 1.4 2.0 2.9 2.4 3.1 3.0

Bank Rate (Q4) 0.09 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.64 n/a 0.87 n/a

LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS, CITY, OBR AND INDEPENDENT AVERAGE

Source: City, OBR and Independent average forecasts: Long-term economic forecasts by city forecasters (average in last 3 months) & independent average from 2020 onwards, OBR.

According to current projections, the UK economy will not recover this year the ground lost in 2020.

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY


I N S I G H T

MENU

OTHER REPORTS

COMING SOONIf you have any questions or feedback on anything in this

report please contact [email protected]

RETAIL SALES MONITOR

MONTHLY

FOOTFALL MONITOR

DIGITAL RETAIL INSIGHTS


FORECASTS

QUARTERLY

QUARTERLY TRENDS

RETAIL EMPLOYMENT MONITOR

ANNUAL

ANNUAL SALES REVIEW

WORKFORCE SURVEY

CRIME SURVEY

PAYMENTS SURVEY

SHOP PRICE INDEX

EMPLOYEE PERCEPTIONS SURVEY

PUBLICATIONS

ABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY

23


I N S I G H T

MENU

24ABOUT US

PUBLICATIONS

RETAIL SALES MONITOR

MONTHLY

FOOTFALL MONITOR

DIGITAL RETAIL INSIGHTS


FORECASTING

QUARTERLY

QUARTERLY TRENDS

RETAIL EMPLOYMENT MONITOR

ANNUAL

ANNUAL SALES REVIEW

WORKFORCE SURVEY

CRIME SURVEY

PAYMENTS SURVEY

BRC INSIGHT THE TEAM

KYLE MONK

DR. LILIANA DANILA

ASIM DEY

HEAD OF INSIGHT & ANALYTICS

Kyle has worked in the retail industry for nearly a decade, working on diverse projects to build a better understanding of the industry.

ECONOMIST

Liliana joined the BRC after a career in academia. At the BRC, her work focuses on economic commentary and forecasting. She holds a PhD. in Economics from Clemson University, SC, USA.

INSIGHT EXECUTIVE

Asim has worked across a diverse number of industries, from Finance to Programmatic Advertising. He holds an Actuarial Science degree from Cass Business school.

The BRC has a diverse team of experts dedicated to providing insight into the UK’s retail industry. They work across several specialities to bring together cutting-edge data sources and provide in-depth analysis of both into fast moving market developments and longer-term structural trends. We work with everyone from Amazon to Aldi, helping these organisations to better benchmark their performance against their peers.

The BRC both works with leading data suppliers and also produces some of the leading measures of UK retail performance, including sales, footfall, vacancies and more.

The dashboard below gives you a snapshot of the latest figures for retail sales and other KPIs. You can find out more about our reports by exploring the other pages in this Retail Insight & Analytics section of the website.

THE ECONOMIC BRIEFING REPORT

The BRC’s Economic Briefing Report (EBR) is our monthly measure of the global & UK economy, the wider trading environment, and a collection of performance market measures within this context.

The EBR has been running for over a decade, however the BRC are now looking to bring it into the 21st century – and are currently exploring new partnerships and data sources to make this a reality.

If you have any thoughts or feedback on how we might be able to improve this report – please do get in touch.

CONTACT & DISCLAIMER

THE BRITISH RETAIL CONSORTIUM

01283 829 213

[email protected]

The articles and opinions contained in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the BRC. Whilst the BRC endeavours to ensure that the information in this publication is accurate and that the articles contain nothing prejudicial to the position or reputation of any party, the BRC shall not be liable for any damages (including without limitation, damages for loss of business or loss of profits) arising in contract, tort or otherwise from this publication or any information contained in it, or from any action or decision as a result of reading this report.

SHOP PRICE INDEX

EMPLOYEE PERCEPTIONABOUT US

OTHER REPORTS

FORECASTS

WEATHER

EXCHANGE RATES

CREDIT & HOUSING



CONFIDENCE P1, P2

IPSOS FOOTFALL


CUSTOMER TRAFFIC

CBI TRADES SURVEY

ONS

BRC vs ONS

RETAIL SALES

WORLD ECONOMY


UK ECONOMY

EXEC SUMMARY


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