On September 18th 2014, Scotland voted in the referendum for
independence. Political analysts are interested in how voting
decisions were shaped and what influenced voters’ behavior.
Develop a research strategy and design to answer this problem.
Introduction:
Research is a procedure acquired in order to examine information,
test theories, explore variety, accumulate new facts and revise
knowledge. Social science research explores truths, mistakes,
gradations, and deviations of social world and generalizes it
creatively. Social research engages research that draws on the
social sciences for theoretical and conceptual inspiration. These
researches can be motivated by the change in behavior of
individuals and society (Kothari, 2004). The scenario which has
been chosen for research is the Scottish referendum for
independence. As this issue is very recent, so it would be easy
to get information on it.
The referendum for Scottish independence from Great Briton took
place on 18th of September. The referendum bill was passed by the
Scottish parliament in November 2013 after the Scottish national
party got majority in the last elections. The manifesto of the
SNP stated that they will hold referendum if they come to power.
As a result of that election SNP became the largest party in
Scotland with a large majority. So eventually the chance of
Scottish referendum increased when SNP came into power. In 2012
January the UK government passed the legislation to give the
power to Scottish parliament to hold referendum, after that the
first minister of Scotland Alex Salmond and the Scottish national
party decided to hold the referendum elections on 18th of
September 2014. SNP made further legislations and changed the
voting age from 18 to 16 years. This move was supported by the
labour party, Scottish greens and the liberal democrats. The
question that was about to be raised to the Scottish people was
“Should Scotland be an independent country?” which will be
followed by the option YES or NO. This question was decided to be
most neutral in the terms.
According to the draft bill in 2010, the proposition was made by
the Scottish government that there will be a designated
organization made for each campaign. The organization which
campaigned for yes vote was named “Yes Scotland” and the
organization designated for no campaign was named “better
together”. Both organizations were given permission to spend
750,000 pounds along with that they were permitted to send one
free mailshot to every household and voter in the referendum
franchise. It was mutually decided that there will be no public
funding. The political parties were allowed to make the
contribution of not more than 100000 pounds to their respective
organization. However in 2013 the legislations were changed and
both of the designated campaigns were allowed to spend 1.5
million pounds each. According to the Scottish government the
forecasted cost of the referendum was estimated around 13 million
pounds.
The campaigning organization for the Scottish independence was
launched on May 25th 2012. The campaign was led by Blair Jenkins
and it was supported by the Scottish national party, the Scottish
green party and the Scottish socialist party. On the other hand,
the campaign which favoured the union was named “better
together”. The leader of the campaign was Alistair darling. This
campaign was supported by labour party, conservative party and
the liberal democrats. The UK government stated that if voters
turned out in favor of independence than Scotland will be made
independent country after a series of negotiations and if the
majority was against referendum then Scotland will remain part of
the UK.
The voting took place on 18th September, and the better together
campaign won by clear majority of 55% whereas the yes Scotland
campaign managed to secure 44.7% of the total vote’s turnout.
Now the main question arises what were the factors which shaped
the voting behavior of the people, basically what led the people
in order to vote against the independence and what influenced
voter behavior. The aim of the essay is to find out what social
research methods can be used by the political analyst to
determine the voting behavior of the people of Scotland. For this
purpose the essay is divided into 4 parts. First part will
explain the research strategy that can be adopted by the
political analysts in order to carry out this research, which
will also discuss its aims and objectives. The second part will
explain the two qualitative research methods which are considered
suitable for this research along with their strengths and
weaknesses keeping in mind the ethical considerations. The third
part will focus on the qualitative research method that is
considered unsuitable for this research along with its strength
and weaknesses. The fourth part will focus on the analyzing the
data that will be collected, in terms of the research question
which will lead to the conclusion.
The research strategy and design:
The research strategy that will be adopted for this research is
qualitative research. Research strategy refers to the general
orientation to conduct a social research. Quantitative research
bases on the structured method and survey tool in data
collection. Unlike quantitative research, qualitative research
focuses on semi-structured technique. Both qualitative and
quantitative research strategies basically consider with
epistemological and ontological matters (Bryman, 2004). The main
emphasis of quantitative research is the quantification in the
collection and analysis of data whereas on the other hand the
main emphases of qualitative research are on words rather than
quantification. It predominantly focuses an inductive approach to
the relationship between theory and research (Bryman, 2012). The
qualitative research does not follow the norms and practices of
positivism and natural scientific model. However it embodies a
view of social reality as continuously changing aspect (Bryman,
2012). There is more distinction between qualitative and
quantitative research than explained above. If we go further in
detail the qualitative research seeks to explore the phenomenon
whereas the quantitative research only confirm hypothesis about
phenomenon. If we talk about the question format of both research
types, the qualitative question format are open ended and
quantitative are closed ended. The most important difference
between the quantitative and qualitative research is their
flexibility, the quantitative methods are reasonably inflexible,
and it includes questionnaires and surveys which more or less ask
the same question to the participants hence making it close
ended. On the other hand qualitative methods are fairly flexible,
which allows greater adaptation to interaction between the
participant and researcher as the participant are freely slowed
to respond in their own words.
Qualitative research includes experimental, cross-sectional,
longitudinal, case study and comparative designs. Other than
that, there are some techniques which help in collection of data
which are: ethnography, qualitative interviewing and focus
groups. Besides, content, discourse, grounded theory and textual
analysis are prerequisites to carry out a research (Bryman,
2012). Now in order to find out the voting intentions of the
people and what influence the voter behavior, qualitative
research can best explain the answer. An inductive approach aboutthe common perception of the people (what they keep in mind and
what factors they don’t brainstorm) whilst voting. Keeping in mind
the theory generation aspect of qualitative research, the political
analyst will generate a theory which will portrays the general
voting behavior. One of the main reasons for choosing qualitative
research is that it will allow maximum spontaneity and adaptation
of interaction between the political analysts and the voters. In
qualitative research, the case study method will help explain this
scenario in great depth. Case study research design is focused on
complexity and particular nature of the case in the research
question (stake, 1995). There is an inclination to associate case
study with qualitative research. The exponents of case study method
certainly favor qualitative methods like unstructured interviews
and participant observation (Bryman, 2004) the reason being they
help to explore the in depth information and detailed examination
of the case. There are five different types of case studies
according to Yin (2009) the critical case, the extreme or unique
case, the representative or typical case, the revelatory case and
the longitudinal case. The selection of the type of case study
depends upon the type of research, whether it is analytical or
descriptive. Case study method is also relevant when the research
question needs comprehensive and deep description of some social
issue (Yin, 2014).
When we talk about epistemological issue it refers to the
question what is or what should be considered as acceptable
knowledge in the discipline (Bryman, 2014) Epistemological
considerations is what allows us to explain the various paradigms
which give answers to the questions raised by epistemology
(Schwandt, 1999) Epistemological considerations can be divided
into types; positivism and Interpretivism. Positivism relates to
the application of the methods especially in natural sciences.
Realism is approximately similar to positivism; however it also
slightly shares the features of social sciences (Williams, 2003).
Interpretivism is opposite epistemology to positivism particularly
focuses on social sciences and public issues. Interpretivism
defines that, the essence of social sciences subject matter is
extremely different from that of natural sciences. Basically it
is an alternative to positivist orthodoxy. The voting behavior of
the people is a social issue and a public affair, as the research
conducted is qualitative, so it seeks to explore, describe and
explain the whole scenario, so the focus will be on
Interpretivism.
Ontological matters concerns with the specific assumptions of
social or biophysical entities and social actors constantly make
social events. Wand and Weber (1993) describes ontology as
"A branch of philosophy concerned with articulating the nature
and structure of the world."
Ontology has two positions: objectivism and constructionism.
Objectivism is an ontological position that proclaims that social
phenomenon has existence that is free from the social actors. In
other words social agents have no influence over the social
phenomenon. On the other hand, constructionism is of the view
that social phenomenon and their meaning are constructed by the
social actors. It further states that these social phenomenons
are in a continuous state of revision. The particular voter
behavior is due the construction of the opinion by the social
actors which can be organizations such as “yes Scotland” or
“better together”. So it would not be unwise to say that the
voting behavior of the people is shaped by the information
available on the issue and the information is the constructed by
these social actors.
Ethical issues can arise in social research at a variety of
stages which need to be observed when conducting a research.
Basically ethical concerns refer to values that should be kept in
mind during the research process. Ethics can be defined as the
study of good conduct and of the grounds for creating judgments
about what is good conduct (trusted, 1987; Birch et al., 2002).
The ethical issues raises two types of concerns, the treatment of
people on whom the research is conducted and the activities which
should be or should not be done regarding the research keeping in
mind the moral values(Bryman, 2004) According to Walliman (2006)
the ethical duties which are related to research are courtesy,
consent and confidentiality. Bannister (1996) further raised the
question how represent others, he concluded that “the rules for
ethical behavior resides in the conscience and the moral codes of
individuals” .Marilyn Lichtman (2014) has identified major
principles that are associated with the ethical conduct: harm to
participants, privacy and anonymity, confidentiality, informed
consent, intrusiveness, deception and data interpretation. Whilst
gathering data for identification of the voter behavior, these
ethical principles should be kept in mind. The participants
involved in this research should be provided with all the
relevant information on ethical conduct.
Qualitative methods suitable for Scottish referendum research:
After thorough study of all the qualitative research methods, the
methods chosen for this research are focus group and qualitative
interviews. In order to investigate how voting decisions were
shaped and what influenced voter behavior, these methods are most
accurate to get the in-depth analysis of the voter intentions and
the factors which shape their voting behavior. When we talk about
qualitative interviews, it is a research tool which is frequently
used in social sciences to gain an in-depth understanding of the
issues (Rubin and Rubin, 2005) i.e. different cultures, their
behavior and in that specific case voting behavior, different
issues and their solutions. The qualitative interview has great
importance in the social sciences because of its high
flexibility, as it can be combined with other qualitative methods
like focus group and participant observation (Bryman and Bell,
2011). The reason for choosing this method is that it gives
command to the interviewer to determine what is important for the
research and how it should be retrieved. Other than that in
qualitative interview the major emphasis is on greater generality
in the formulation of the research ideas and the interviewee’s
point of view (Bryman, 2014). The qualitative interviews give the
liberty to interviewer to depart significantly from any guide or
schedule being used. They have the liberty to ask follow up
questions and can vary the order of the interview to get rich
detailed answers. The interviewee can be interviewed more than
one time at diverse occasions.
The two main types of the qualitative interviews are the semi
structured and unstructured interviews.in unstructured interviews
the interviewee can be asked only one question and can be allowed
to respond freely. This technique will be most beneficial to
measure the voting intentions and behavior of the Scottish people
as the interviewer will get the in-depth opinion of the
interviewee by allowing him to respond freely. In semi structured
interviews, the researcher has a list of questions that are
fairly structured but it is not necessary for the interviewer to
follow the question guide and similarly the interviewee has
freedom in how to answer the question (Bryman, 2014). Although
the qualitative interviews are used extensively in research, but
still there are certain limitations to it. For instance analyzing
the qualitative interviews are very difficult as compared to
quantitative ones. Sometimes it doesn’t help in retrieving the
required information (Bryman and bell, 2011) for example:
ethnography is more beneficial in order to access the deviant
activities of an organization.
When we talk about the ethical considerations regarding
qualitative interviews it’s almost the same as other ethical
issues in qualitative research. Ethics can be defined as the
study of good conduct and of the grounds for creating judgments
about what is good conduct (Birch et al., 2002). In case of
investigating the voting behavior of the people and to verify how
their voting decisions were shaped, few ethical considerations
must be kept in mind. The interviewer should confirm that the
participant is entirely informed about the research strategy and
they should also give their consent to take part in the research
before data collection. The participants should be made aware of
the fact that they have the right to withdraw from the research
at any point of time. The act of deception should be avoided; it
is acceptable only if the benefits of the research exceed any
risk to the participant. The participants must be informed about
the full aims of the research and should be given access to
respective publication. Most importantly the interviewer should
maintain complete confidentiality of the participants and their
respective information. These are the very basic ethical
considerations should be kept in mind whilst conducting a
qualitative interview.
The second chosen for this research scenario is the focus group;
it is a form of group interviewing including several
participants.it is based on the interaction between group members
and moderator which is also part of the group on the topic that
is provided by the researcher in order to get a diverse opinion
on the scenario. It is done to retrieve joint construction of
common understanding on a specific matter (Morgan, 1997) the
focus group has become a famous qualitative research method; it
helps examine the ways in which people in conjunction with one
another interpret the general issues discussed (Bryman, 2004)
There are several advantages of using this method; the main
advantage is that it helps to draw upon aspects from respondents,
such as their feelings, attitude, belief, experiences and
interactions. Using other methods would not help retrieve such
information as these factors can only be revealed provided
certain conditions such as social gathering and interaction among
participants of a group. In this way the researchers are able to
get a large amount of data in a very short period of time thus
making it more convenient and efficient (Gibbs, 1997). The focus
group enquires people for holding their particular opinion about
a certain issue, which adds to its advantages. The participants
can challenge and argue about each other’s point of view, which
can be fruitful to get diverse opinion. Most importantly the
focus group method allows the researchers to examine how people
construct a collective sense on any specific topic and how to
interpret the meaning (Bryman and Bell, 2007). The focus group
method is most acceptable in the political research. It is dine
to find out the election outcomes and public image of the
politicians. In case of Scottish referendum, the focus group can
engage people in an argument, each party (YES and NO voters) will
present their argument and other party will present its counter
argument which can be very beneficial for getting the required
information.
Along with the advantages there are certain limitations of the
focus group method. Madriz (2000) is of the view that there are
certain circumstances when focus group is not appropriate because
it can cause discomfort to the participants e.g. when intimate
details of privets life need to revealed and when participants
are not comfortable in each other’s presence etc. the researcher
has very less control over the data produced and the proceedings
of the focus group. More over a focus group is always an open
ended situation and it cannot be fully predetermined. Firstly the
data is difficult to transcribe and secondly the transcribed data
is harder to analyze (Bryman and Bell, 2011) besides its
limitations, this method will still be beneficial to our research
to analyze the voting intention of the people in Scottish
referendum.
Ethical considerations for focus groups are same as for other
qualitative methods (homan, 1992). As a political analyst the
main is aim to find out how the voting decisions were shaped and
influenced voter behavior. The political analyst must ensure that
all the information of the research conducted is made known to
the participants. They should keep participants informed about
the expectations of the topic and group. Similarly the
participants should not be pressurized by the researchers (Gibbs,
1997) the most important ethical issue that the researchers
should consider is confidentiality and handling of sensitive
information as there are more than one participant in the focus
group. This can only be done by taking the participants into
confidence.
Unsuitable method:
The method which is most unsuitable for measuring the voting
intentions and behavior of the Scottish people is ethnography.
Ethnography is the study of behaviors, social interactions and
perceptions that occur within teams, organizations, communities
and groups therefore it generates a better understanding of the
world around us. Participant observation allows the ethnographers
to get hold of the insight of social practices which are not
common to the public eye. To be a good ethnographer, the
researcher need to be skeptical about what lies on the surface of
a phenomenon and it needs to be verified (Berg and Lune, 2001).
This method is most helpful when an intensive observation is
required (clinical research, society inspection) Ethnographic
research is most suitable for below the line researches (hidden
observations) because the observers are in direct contact of the
social setting on which the observation is carried out. The
ethnography or participant observation is more likely to uncover
unexpected topics, behaviors and issues.it has a very
naturalistic approach to observe the information.
At the same time it raises ethical concerns, sometimes
ethnography or participant observation does not provide with the
opportunity of being informed, thus raising “informed consent”
issues (Bryman, 2004).in this way there is high chance of
participant observer to be harmed upon detection in the social
setting. It also raises the issue of deception because the social
setting that is being observed can be deceived into giving
information. Along with that it also violates the principle of
privacy because privacy of the observed social setting is invaded
without their consent.
In order to verify the shaping of the voting decisions and how
their behavior was influenced ethnography and participant
observation are irrelevant because of the fact that information
upon which people shape their voting behavior is public. This
information is organized and constructed by the organizations and
political parties who want to achieve certain agenda. .So the
relevant information that shapes the voting behavior can easily
be obtained by focus groups and interviews. Ethnography not only
requires a great deal of time but its major obstacle faced by all
ethnographers is access (Berg and Lune, 2001). To analyze the
voting pattern of people of Scotland, no access to the hidden
information is required because all the information that shapes
voting patterns are made public by the organizations. It depend
upon people how they interpret this information and what
decisions they make by voting.
Analysis of data:
When it comes to analysis, the qualitative data is hard to
analyze as compared to the quantitative data, as it is derived
from a large quantity of unstructured textual material because of
its reliance on interview scripts, field notes and documentation
(Bryman, 2004). Qualitative data is an “attractive nuisance” just
because of its attractiveness but it also causes difficulty in
finding analytical path (Miles, 1979). Now coming to the
analysis, there are few widely accepted and well established
rules for the evaluation and analysis of qualitative data. The
two most accepted and most cited (Hycner, 1985) general
strategies strategies are analytical induction and grounded
theory. Both of these strategies can also be used as strategies
for the collection of the data (Bryman, 2014). According to
Bryman (2004) analytical induction refers to “an approach for the
analysis of data in which the researcher seeks universal
explanations of phenomenon by pursuing the collection of data
until no cases that are consistent with a hypothetical
explanation of a phenomenon are found”. The most relevant method
for our research (to find out the voting intentions of the
Scottish people) is the grounded theory. It is because of the
fact that it is concerned with the development of theory and this
approach is iterative. In the grounded theory method the data
collection, analysis, and the theory are in close relation to
each other (Strauss and Corbin, 1998). The grounded theory
approach has following steps which are shown in the figure below.
It shows the step by step process of the grounded theory along
with the outcomes.it shows that according to the grounded theory
approach the research begins with the research question. After
that the relevant people and incidents are theoretically sampled.
The relevant data according to the research is collected, and
then the data is coded. There is a constant movement between the
first four steps, which suggests if there is further need of the
data. After the continuous examining of indicators and concept,
categories are generated. The most critical concern is to ensure
that indicators and concepts fit together. After going through
these critical steps (Rest mentioned in the figure) a formal
theory is established.
Figure: the process of grounded theory.
Now in the case for Scottish referendum, the first phase will be
conduction of interview of the native people of Scotland, who
responsibly voted in the referendum. The second phase consists of
reviewing the literature available on the Scottish referendum.
The purpose of this literature review will be to find any
suitable reasons which shape voting decisions. The third phase
consists of making the categories (e.g. age, gender etc.). These
analytical categories will be further used for analysis. In order
to refine the data and to add more quality analysis focus groups
can be conducted. The fourth phase consist of coding of the data
which is the most important phase in grounded theory approach as
it serves as short hand devices for organizing the data (Charmaz,
1983). The fifth phase will be based on constant comparison of
the different age groups involved in voting and the comparison of
retrieved data to the literature review as well. The grounded
theory approach is best suitable for conducting the research
without biases. The next phase will seek to explore relationship
between the categories (age groups, gender, income groups etc.)
which will eventually lead to the generation of hypothesis.
Further data can be collected in order to test the hypothesis by
testing of the generated hypothesis will lead to a substantive
theory. In the last phase the substantive theory will be examined
using the using the grounded theory approach in accordance to
different settings, which will eventually lead to the formal
theory. Using the grounded theory approach the political analyst
can best explain the voting behavior by generating a formal
theory. If these phases are conducted thoroughly then the results
achieved would very be beneficial in order to understand people’s
behavior in the Scottish referendum.
Conclusion:
This essay sought to explain how political analyst can conduct a
research in order to find out how voting decisions were shaped
and what influenced voters’ behavior in the Scottish referendum
of 18th September 2014. It explains the whole process of the
qualitative research that is supposed to be carried out for the
given scenario. For this purpose, whole research design and
strategy is defined in the essay. The political analyst can use
the qualitative research methods in order to get the results.
Along with that epistemological and ontological considerations
are also stated, the core focus is kept on the ethical
consideration. After that two qualitative methods which are most
suitable for the given research scenario are defined in detail
along with the strength, limitations and ethical considerations.
Focus group and interviews are the most suitable method for this
research as they are convenient in gathering the primary
information. The most unsuitable qualitative method for this
research is also mentioned in the essay which is ethnography or
participant observation.
The main part of the essay is focused on defining how the
collected data will be analyzed using the qualitative methods.
For this purpose, the approach which is most suitable for the
analysis of the data collected is grounded theory approach which
is focused on theory generation. Data collection, analysis and
evaluation and the eventual theory stand in close correspondence
to each other. The whole model of grounded theory approach is
explained in terms of the research that is to be conducted on
voting behavior in the Scottish referendum. Despite its time
consuming aspect grounded theory approach can help the political
analyst to examine the data collected more thoroughly as compared
to the other approaches.
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