On September 18th 2014, Scotland voted in the referendum for

independence. Political analysts are interested in how voting

decisions were shaped and what influenced voters’ behavior.

Develop a research strategy and design to answer this problem.

Introduction:

Research is a procedure acquired in order to examine information,

test theories, explore variety, accumulate new facts and revise

knowledge. Social science research explores truths, mistakes,

gradations, and deviations of social world and generalizes it

creatively. Social research engages research that draws on the

social sciences for theoretical and conceptual inspiration. These

researches can be motivated by the change in behavior of

individuals and society (Kothari, 2004). The scenario which has

been chosen for research is the Scottish referendum for

independence. As this issue is very recent, so it would be easy

to get information on it.

The referendum for Scottish independence from Great Briton took

place on 18th of September. The referendum bill was passed by the

Scottish parliament in November 2013 after the Scottish national

party got majority in the last elections. The manifesto of the

SNP stated that they will hold referendum if they come to power.

As a result of that election SNP became the largest party in

Scotland with a large majority. So eventually the chance of

Scottish referendum increased when SNP came into power. In 2012

January the UK government passed the legislation to give the

power to Scottish parliament to hold referendum, after that the

first minister of Scotland Alex Salmond and the Scottish national

party decided to hold the referendum elections on 18th of

September 2014. SNP made further legislations and changed the

voting age from 18 to 16 years. This move was supported by the

labour party, Scottish greens and the liberal democrats. The

question that was about to be raised to the Scottish people was

“Should Scotland be an independent country?” which will be

followed by the option YES or NO. This question was decided to be

most neutral in the terms.

According to the draft bill in 2010, the proposition was made by

the Scottish government that there will be a designated

organization made for each campaign. The organization which

campaigned for yes vote was named “Yes Scotland” and the

organization designated for no campaign was named “better

together”. Both organizations were given permission to spend

750,000 pounds along with that they were permitted to send one

free mailshot to every household and voter in the referendum

franchise. It was mutually decided that there will be no public

funding. The political parties were allowed to make the

contribution of not more than 100000 pounds to their respective

organization. However in 2013 the legislations were changed and

both of the designated campaigns were allowed to spend 1.5

million pounds each. According to the Scottish government the

forecasted cost of the referendum was estimated around 13 million

pounds.

The campaigning organization for the Scottish independence was

launched on May 25th 2012. The campaign was led by Blair Jenkins

and it was supported by the Scottish national party, the Scottish

green party and the Scottish socialist party. On the other hand,

the campaign which favoured the union was named “better

together”. The leader of the campaign was Alistair darling. This

campaign was supported by labour party, conservative party and

the liberal democrats. The UK government stated that if voters

turned out in favor of independence than Scotland will be made

independent country after a series of negotiations and if the

majority was against referendum then Scotland will remain part of

the UK.

The voting took place on 18th September, and the better together

campaign won by clear majority of 55% whereas the yes Scotland

campaign managed to secure 44.7% of the total vote’s turnout.

Now the main question arises what were the factors which shaped

the voting behavior of the people, basically what led the people

in order to vote against the independence and what influenced

voter behavior. The aim of the essay is to find out what social

research methods can be used by the political analyst to

determine the voting behavior of the people of Scotland. For this

purpose the essay is divided into 4 parts. First part will

explain the research strategy that can be adopted by the

political analysts in order to carry out this research, which

will also discuss its aims and objectives. The second part will

explain the two qualitative research methods which are considered

suitable for this research along with their strengths and

weaknesses keeping in mind the ethical considerations. The third

part will focus on the qualitative research method that is

considered unsuitable for this research along with its strength

and weaknesses. The fourth part will focus on the analyzing the

data that will be collected, in terms of the research question

which will lead to the conclusion.

The research strategy and design:

The research strategy that will be adopted for this research is

qualitative research. Research strategy refers to the general

orientation to conduct a social research. Quantitative research

bases on the structured method and survey tool in data

collection. Unlike quantitative research, qualitative research

focuses on semi-structured technique. Both qualitative and

quantitative research strategies basically consider with

epistemological and ontological matters (Bryman, 2004). The main

emphasis of quantitative research is the quantification in the

collection and analysis of data whereas on the other hand the

main emphases of qualitative research are on words rather than

quantification. It predominantly focuses an inductive approach to

the relationship between theory and research (Bryman, 2012). The

qualitative research does not follow the norms and practices of

positivism and natural scientific model. However it embodies a

view of social reality as continuously changing aspect (Bryman,

2012). There is more distinction between qualitative and

quantitative research than explained above. If we go further in

detail the qualitative research seeks to explore the phenomenon

whereas the quantitative research only confirm hypothesis about

phenomenon. If we talk about the question format of both research

types, the qualitative question format are open ended and

quantitative are closed ended. The most important difference

between the quantitative and qualitative research is their

flexibility, the quantitative methods are reasonably inflexible,

and it includes questionnaires and surveys which more or less ask

the same question to the participants hence making it close

ended. On the other hand qualitative methods are fairly flexible,

which allows greater adaptation to interaction between the

participant and researcher as the participant are freely slowed

to respond in their own words.

Qualitative research includes experimental, cross-sectional,

longitudinal, case study and comparative designs. Other than

that, there are some techniques which help in collection of data

which are: ethnography, qualitative interviewing and focus

groups. Besides, content, discourse, grounded theory and textual

analysis are prerequisites to carry out a research (Bryman,

2012). Now in order to find out the voting intentions of the

people and what influence the voter behavior, qualitative

research can best explain the answer. An inductive approach aboutthe common perception of the people (what they keep in mind and

what factors they don’t brainstorm) whilst voting. Keeping in mind

the theory generation aspect of qualitative research, the political

analyst will generate a theory which will portrays the general

voting behavior. One of the main reasons for choosing qualitative

research is that it will allow maximum spontaneity and adaptation

of interaction between the political analysts and the voters. In

qualitative research, the case study method will help explain this

scenario in great depth. Case study research design is focused on

complexity and particular nature of the case in the research

question (stake, 1995). There is an inclination to associate case

study with qualitative research. The exponents of case study method

certainly favor qualitative methods like unstructured interviews

and participant observation (Bryman, 2004) the reason being they

help to explore the in depth information and detailed examination

of the case. There are five different types of case studies

according to Yin (2009) the critical case, the extreme or unique

case, the representative or typical case, the revelatory case and

the longitudinal case. The selection of the type of case study

depends upon the type of research, whether it is analytical or

descriptive. Case study method is also relevant when the research

question needs comprehensive and deep description of some social

issue (Yin, 2014).

When we talk about epistemological issue it refers to the

question what is or what should be considered as acceptable

knowledge in the discipline (Bryman, 2014)  Epistemological

considerations is what allows us to explain the various paradigms

which give answers to the questions raised by epistemology

(Schwandt, 1999) Epistemological considerations can be divided

into types; positivism and Interpretivism. Positivism relates to

the application of the methods especially in natural sciences.

Realism is approximately similar to positivism; however it also

slightly shares the features of social sciences (Williams, 2003).

Interpretivism is opposite epistemology to positivism particularly

focuses on social sciences and public issues. Interpretivism

defines that, the essence of social sciences subject matter is

extremely different from that of natural sciences. Basically it

is an alternative to positivist orthodoxy. The voting behavior of

the people is a social issue and a public affair, as the research

conducted is qualitative, so it seeks to explore, describe and

explain the whole scenario, so the focus will be on

Interpretivism.

Ontological matters concerns with the specific assumptions of

social or biophysical entities and social actors constantly make

social events. Wand and Weber (1993) describes ontology as

"A branch of philosophy concerned with articulating the nature

and structure of the world."

Ontology has two positions: objectivism and constructionism.

Objectivism is an ontological position that proclaims that social

phenomenon has existence that is free from the social actors. In

other words social agents have no influence over the social

phenomenon. On the other hand, constructionism is of the view

that social phenomenon and their meaning are constructed by the

social actors. It further states that these social phenomenons

are in a continuous state of revision. The particular voter

behavior is due the construction of the opinion by the social

actors which can be organizations such as “yes Scotland” or

“better together”. So it would not be unwise to say that the

voting behavior of the people is shaped by the information

available on the issue and the information is the constructed by

these social actors.

Ethical issues can arise in social research at a variety of

stages which need to be observed when conducting a research.

Basically ethical concerns refer to values that should be kept in

mind during the research process. Ethics can be defined as the

study of good conduct and of the grounds for creating judgments

about what is good conduct (trusted, 1987; Birch et al., 2002).

The ethical issues raises two types of concerns, the treatment of

people on whom the research is conducted and the activities which

should be or should not be done regarding the research keeping in

mind the moral values(Bryman, 2004) According to Walliman (2006)

the ethical duties which are related to research are courtesy,

consent and confidentiality. Bannister (1996) further raised the

question how represent others, he concluded that “the rules for

ethical behavior resides in the conscience and the moral codes of

individuals” .Marilyn Lichtman (2014) has identified major

principles that are associated with the ethical conduct: harm to

participants, privacy and anonymity, confidentiality, informed

consent, intrusiveness, deception and data interpretation. Whilst

gathering data for identification of the voter behavior, these

ethical principles should be kept in mind. The participants

involved in this research should be provided with all the

relevant information on ethical conduct.

Qualitative methods suitable for Scottish referendum research:

After thorough study of all the qualitative research methods, the

methods chosen for this research are focus group and qualitative

interviews. In order to investigate how voting decisions were

shaped and what influenced voter behavior, these methods are most

accurate to get the in-depth analysis of the voter intentions and

the factors which shape their voting behavior. When we talk about

qualitative interviews, it is a research tool which is frequently

used in social sciences to gain an in-depth understanding of the

issues (Rubin and Rubin, 2005) i.e. different cultures, their

behavior and in that specific case voting behavior, different

issues and their solutions. The qualitative interview has great

importance in the social sciences because of its high

flexibility, as it can be combined with other qualitative methods

like focus group and participant observation (Bryman and Bell,

2011). The reason for choosing this method is that it gives

command to the interviewer to determine what is important for the

research and how it should be retrieved. Other than that in

qualitative interview the major emphasis is on greater generality

in the formulation of the research ideas and the interviewee’s

point of view (Bryman, 2014). The qualitative interviews give the

liberty to interviewer to depart significantly from any guide or

schedule being used. They have the liberty to ask follow up

questions and can vary the order of the interview to get rich

detailed answers. The interviewee can be interviewed more than

one time at diverse occasions.

The two main types of the qualitative interviews are the semi

structured and unstructured interviews.in unstructured interviews

the interviewee can be asked only one question and can be allowed

to respond freely. This technique will be most beneficial to

measure the voting intentions and behavior of the Scottish people

as the interviewer will get the in-depth opinion of the

interviewee by allowing him to respond freely. In semi structured

interviews, the researcher has a list of questions that are

fairly structured but it is not necessary for the interviewer to

follow the question guide and similarly the interviewee has

freedom in how to answer the question (Bryman, 2014). Although

the qualitative interviews are used extensively in research, but

still there are certain limitations to it. For instance analyzing

the qualitative interviews are very difficult as compared to

quantitative ones. Sometimes it doesn’t help in retrieving the

required information (Bryman and bell, 2011) for example:

ethnography is more beneficial in order to access the deviant

activities of an organization.

When we talk about the ethical considerations regarding

qualitative interviews it’s almost the same as other ethical

issues in qualitative research. Ethics can be defined as the

study of good conduct and of the grounds for creating judgments

about what is good conduct (Birch et al., 2002). In case of

investigating the voting behavior of the people and to verify how

their voting decisions were shaped, few ethical considerations

must be kept in mind. The interviewer should confirm that the

participant is entirely informed about the research strategy and

they should also give their consent to take part in the research

before data collection. The participants should be made aware of

the fact that they have the right to withdraw from the research

at any point of time. The act of deception should be avoided; it

is acceptable only if the benefits of the research exceed any

risk to the participant. The participants must be informed about

the full aims of the research and should be given access to

respective publication. Most importantly the interviewer should

maintain complete confidentiality of the participants and their

respective information. These are the very basic ethical

considerations should be kept in mind whilst conducting a

qualitative interview.

The second chosen for this research scenario is the focus group;

it is a form of group interviewing including several

participants.it is based on the interaction between group members

and moderator which is also part of the group on the topic that

is provided by the researcher in order to get a diverse opinion

on the scenario. It is done to retrieve joint construction of

common understanding on a specific matter (Morgan, 1997) the

focus group has become a famous qualitative research method; it

helps examine the ways in which people in conjunction with one

another interpret the general issues discussed (Bryman, 2004)

There are several advantages of using this method; the main

advantage is that it helps to draw upon aspects from respondents,

such as their feelings, attitude, belief, experiences and

interactions. Using other methods would not help retrieve such

information as these factors can only be revealed provided

certain conditions such as social gathering and interaction among

participants of a group. In this way the researchers are able to

get a large amount of data in a very short period of time thus

making it more convenient and efficient (Gibbs, 1997). The focus

group enquires people for holding their particular opinion about

a certain issue, which adds to its advantages. The participants

can challenge and argue about each other’s point of view, which

can be fruitful to get diverse opinion. Most importantly the

focus group method allows the researchers to examine how people

construct a collective sense on any specific topic and how to

interpret the meaning (Bryman and Bell, 2007). The focus group

method is most acceptable in the political research. It is dine

to find out the election outcomes and public image of the

politicians. In case of Scottish referendum, the focus group can

engage people in an argument, each party (YES and NO voters) will

present their argument and other party will present its counter

argument which can be very beneficial for getting the required

information.

Along with the advantages there are certain limitations of the

focus group method. Madriz (2000) is of the view that there are

certain circumstances when focus group is not appropriate because

it can cause discomfort to the participants e.g. when intimate

details of privets life need to revealed and when participants

are not comfortable in each other’s presence etc. the researcher

has very less control over the data produced and the proceedings

of the focus group. More over a focus group is always an open

ended situation and it cannot be fully predetermined. Firstly the

data is difficult to transcribe and secondly the transcribed data

is harder to analyze (Bryman and Bell, 2011) besides its

limitations, this method will still be beneficial to our research

to analyze the voting intention of the people in Scottish

referendum.

Ethical considerations for focus groups are same as for other

qualitative methods (homan, 1992). As a political analyst the

main is aim to find out how the voting decisions were shaped and

influenced voter behavior. The political analyst must ensure that

all the information of the research conducted is made known to

the participants. They should keep participants informed about

the expectations of the topic and group. Similarly the

participants should not be pressurized by the researchers (Gibbs,

1997) the most important ethical issue that the researchers

should consider is confidentiality and handling of sensitive

information as there are more than one participant in the focus

group. This can only be done by taking the participants into

confidence.

Unsuitable method:

The method which is most unsuitable for measuring the voting

intentions and behavior of the Scottish people is ethnography.

Ethnography is the study of behaviors, social interactions and

perceptions that occur within teams, organizations, communities

and groups therefore it generates a better understanding of the

world around us. Participant observation allows the ethnographers

to get hold of the insight of social practices which are not

common to the public eye. To be a good ethnographer, the

researcher need to be skeptical about what lies on the surface of

a phenomenon and it needs to be verified (Berg and Lune, 2001).

This method is most helpful when an intensive observation is

required (clinical research, society inspection) Ethnographic

research is most suitable for below the line researches (hidden

observations) because the observers are in direct contact of the

social setting on which the observation is carried out. The

ethnography or participant observation is more likely to uncover

unexpected topics, behaviors and issues.it has a very

naturalistic approach to observe the information.

At the same time it raises ethical concerns, sometimes

ethnography or participant observation does not provide with the

opportunity of being informed, thus raising “informed consent”

issues (Bryman, 2004).in this way there is high chance of

participant observer to be harmed upon detection in the social

setting. It also raises the issue of deception because the social

setting that is being observed can be deceived into giving

information. Along with that it also violates the principle of

privacy because privacy of the observed social setting is invaded

without their consent.

In order to verify the shaping of the voting decisions and how

their behavior was influenced ethnography and participant

observation are irrelevant because of the fact that information

upon which people shape their voting behavior is public. This

information is organized and constructed by the organizations and

political parties who want to achieve certain agenda. .So the

relevant information that shapes the voting behavior can easily

be obtained by focus groups and interviews. Ethnography not only

requires a great deal of time but its major obstacle faced by all

ethnographers is access (Berg and Lune, 2001). To analyze the

voting pattern of people of Scotland, no access to the hidden

information is required because all the information that shapes

voting patterns are made public by the organizations. It depend

upon people how they interpret this information and what

decisions they make by voting.

Analysis of data:

When it comes to analysis, the qualitative data is hard to

analyze as compared to the quantitative data, as it is derived

from a large quantity of unstructured textual material because of

its reliance on interview scripts, field notes and documentation

(Bryman, 2004). Qualitative data is an “attractive nuisance” just

because of its attractiveness but it also causes difficulty in

finding analytical path (Miles, 1979). Now coming to the

analysis, there are few widely accepted and well established

rules for the evaluation and analysis of qualitative data. The

two most accepted and most cited (Hycner, 1985) general

strategies strategies are analytical induction and grounded

theory. Both of these strategies can also be used as strategies

for the collection of the data (Bryman, 2014). According to

Bryman (2004) analytical induction refers to “an approach for the

analysis of data in which the researcher seeks universal

explanations of phenomenon by pursuing the collection of data

until no cases that are consistent with a hypothetical

explanation of a phenomenon are found”. The most relevant method

for our research (to find out the voting intentions of the

Scottish people) is the grounded theory. It is because of the

fact that it is concerned with the development of theory and this

approach is iterative. In the grounded theory method the data

collection, analysis, and the theory are in close relation to

each other (Strauss and Corbin, 1998). The grounded theory

approach has following steps which are shown in the figure below.

It shows the step by step process of the grounded theory along

with the outcomes.it shows that according to the grounded theory

approach the research begins with the research question. After

that the relevant people and incidents are theoretically sampled.

The relevant data according to the research is collected, and

then the data is coded. There is a constant movement between the

first four steps, which suggests if there is further need of the

data. After the continuous examining of indicators and concept,

categories are generated. The most critical concern is to ensure

that indicators and concepts fit together. After going through

these critical steps (Rest mentioned in the figure) a formal

theory is established.

Figure: the process of grounded theory.

Now in the case for Scottish referendum, the first phase will be

conduction of interview of the native people of Scotland, who

responsibly voted in the referendum. The second phase consists of

reviewing the literature available on the Scottish referendum.

The purpose of this literature review will be to find any

suitable reasons which shape voting decisions. The third phase

consists of making the categories (e.g. age, gender etc.). These

analytical categories will be further used for analysis. In order

to refine the data and to add more quality analysis focus groups

can be conducted. The fourth phase consist of coding of the data

which is the most important phase in grounded theory approach as

it serves as short hand devices for organizing the data (Charmaz,

1983). The fifth phase will be based on constant comparison of

the different age groups involved in voting and the comparison of

retrieved data to the literature review as well. The grounded

theory approach is best suitable for conducting the research

without biases. The next phase will seek to explore relationship

between the categories (age groups, gender, income groups etc.)

which will eventually lead to the generation of hypothesis.

Further data can be collected in order to test the hypothesis by

testing of the generated hypothesis will lead to a substantive

theory. In the last phase the substantive theory will be examined

using the using the grounded theory approach in accordance to

different settings, which will eventually lead to the formal

theory. Using the grounded theory approach the political analyst

can best explain the voting behavior by generating a formal

theory. If these phases are conducted thoroughly then the results

achieved would very be beneficial in order to understand people’s

behavior in the Scottish referendum.

Conclusion:

This essay sought to explain how political analyst can conduct a

research in order to find out how voting decisions were shaped

and what influenced voters’ behavior in the Scottish referendum

of 18th September 2014. It explains the whole process of the

qualitative research that is supposed to be carried out for the

given scenario. For this purpose, whole research design and

strategy is defined in the essay. The political analyst can use

the qualitative research methods in order to get the results.

Along with that epistemological and ontological considerations

are also stated, the core focus is kept on the ethical

consideration. After that two qualitative methods which are most

suitable for the given research scenario are defined in detail

along with the strength, limitations and ethical considerations.

Focus group and interviews are the most suitable method for this

research as they are convenient in gathering the primary

information. The most unsuitable qualitative method for this

research is also mentioned in the essay which is ethnography or

participant observation.

The main part of the essay is focused on defining how the

collected data will be analyzed using the qualitative methods.

For this purpose, the approach which is most suitable for the

analysis of the data collected is grounded theory approach which

is focused on theory generation. Data collection, analysis and

evaluation and the eventual theory stand in close correspondence

to each other. The whole model of grounded theory approach is

explained in terms of the research that is to be conducted on

voting behavior in the Scottish referendum. Despite its time

consuming aspect grounded theory approach can help the political

analyst to examine the data collected more thoroughly as compared

to the other approaches.

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