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CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
Copy No 4 3
C A B I N E T M I N U T E
Canberra,
15 November
1988
No 12033
Submission
No.
6132
and
Amended
Minute
12008 ER)
Forward
Estimates
o f
Out lays
1989-90, 1990-91 and 1991-92
The
Cabinet
noted
the
out look for ou t lays
presen ted by the Forward
Est imates .
2 .
The Cabinet agreed tha t : -
a )
the
Prime Minis ter , the
Treasurer
and the
Minis ter
for
Finance s e t t l e
the
f ina l de ta i l s o f
the Forward Est imates Report; and
b)
the r e por t be
publ ic ly re leased
as soon
as
prac t i cab le .
3. In re spec t
o f
processes
for the 1989-90 Budget,
t he Cabinet fu r t he r agreed t h a t : -
a) M inis ters
lodge
Submissions
providing
l i s t i ngs
of
new pol icy
proposals
in pr i o r i t y order
and
of f se t t i ng savings
by 10 March 1989, in a format
to
be
advised
by the
Department o f Finance;
2
This document is the
property
of
the
ustralian Government and is not to be copied or reproduced
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CABINET
IN CONFIDENCE
2.
No. 12033
Contd.)
b)
these l i s t ings be r e s t r i c t ed
to
high p r io r i t y
n w
pol icy proposals and i den t i fy
su f f i c ien t
savings
in
out lays
to cover fu l ly the o s ~ of
these proposals ;
c)
any
proposals for
increased funding
in 1989-90,
inc luding those r i s i ng from
reviews curren t ly
being undertaken, be inc luded in these n w
pol icy pr io r i ty l i s t i ngs ; and
d)
por t fo l i o t a rge t s be
used
to
resolve
minor
new
pol icy
i ssues and to achieve overa l l budgetary
savings.
This endorses
Amended Minute
12008 ER) o f 10 November 1988.)
Acting
Secre tary to
Cabinet
This document s the property of the ustralian Government and s not to be copied or reproduced
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CABINETIN CONFIDENCE
Copy No.
43
C A B I N E T M I N U T E
Expenditure
Review Committee
Canberra, 10 November 1988
Amended No.
12021
ER)
Submission
No.
6132 Forward Estimates o f Outlays
1989-90, 1990-91 and
1991-92
The
Committee agreed tha t
: -
a ) an out lays review be prepared j o i n t l y by the
Department
o f
Community
Services
and
Health and
the Department o f Finance
on
the Pharmaceutical
Benef i t s Scheme focussing p a r t i c u l a r l y on: -
i )
the
i s sues
re fe r red t o
in paragraph
o f Cabinet Minute 11148 o f 23
May
1988;
i i )
payment arrangements, inc luding
the
opt ion of
payment
through the Health
Insurance
Commission;
and
i i i ) procedures for approval
o f
new
drugs
under
the
scheme; and
b)
the
r e s u l t s
of the
review
be
avai l ab le
by
February
1989.
2 .
The
Committee
a lso
agreed
t h a t
the
r e s u l t s
o f
t he review by
the
Minis t e r
for Housing and
Aged Care
of
housing
programs be
ready for
cons ide ra t ion by
the
Committee
by February
1989.
Amended
por t ion
his doc
u
me
nt is
the
prope rty
of the
Australian G
overn
m
ent
and is not to
be copied or reprod
u
ced
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CABINET-IN -CONFIDENCE
opy
No
C A B I N E T M I N U T E
Expendi ture Review Committee
Canberra,
10 November 1988
No.
12020
ER)
Submission
No.
6132
Forward Est ima tes o f
Outlays
1989-90,
1990-91
and
1991-92
The
Committee agreed t h a t : -
a ) out lays reviews
be
prepared j o in t l y
by
the
4
Department
of Soc ia l Secur i ty and the
Department
o f
Finance
on
: -
i ) the Unemployment Benef i t work and
a c t iv i t y t e s t ; and
i i )
inc lus ion o f
maintenance payments
in
the
Family Allowance Supplement income
t e s t ;
and
b)
the
r e su l t s
of
each review be av a i l ab l e
by
February 1989.
2.
The Committee
a lso
agreed t h a t the r e su l t s o f
the review o f
i n i t i a t i ves
to
a s s i s t people
with d i s a b i l i t i e s
Cabine t
Minute
11685 o f
August
1988
r e f e r s )
be ready
fo r
cons idera t ion
by the Committee
by February 1989.
Acting Secre ta ry
to Cabinet
This docum
ent
is
th
e
property
of t he A ustralian G
overnment
and is
not to
be copied
or
rep
rod
uced
CABINET-IN-CONFIDENCE
.
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CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
Copy No
4 3_
C B I N E T M I N U T E
Expendi ture Review
Committee
Canberra , 10 November 1988
No. 12016
ER)
Submission
No.
6132
Forward
Est imates
o f
Outlays
1989-90,
1990-91 and
1991-92
The Committee agreed t h a t : -
a) a rev iew
be
prepared j o i n t l y by the Department
o f
Defence and the Department
o f Finance
on
op t ions
for achieving
zero r e a l growth o f
defence
ou t l ays
in
1989-90; and
b) the
r e s u l t s of the review be
ava i l ab l e
by
February 1989.
Acting Secre ta ry
to
Cabinet
This document is the property
of
the Australian
Government
and
is not to be copied or reproduced
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
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CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
Copy
No 4
C A B I N E T M I N U T E
Expendi ture Review
Committee
Canberra, 10
November 1988
No.
12014
ER)
Submission
No.
6132
Forward
Est imates
o f
Outlays
1989-90, 1990-91 and
1991-92
The
Committee agreed t h a t the r e s u l t s of the
rev iew
o f
Commonwealth
involvement in the
development
and
ope ra t ion
o f
a i rpo r t s
Cabinet
Minute 11466 ER)
o f 22
Ju ly
1988 r e f e r s be ready for cons ide ra t ion by
the
Committee by
February
1989.
Act ing Secre ta ry to
Cabinet
.
This document
is
the
property of
the ustralian
Government and
is not
to be copied
or
reproduced
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CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
Copy
No 4
3
C A B I N E T M I N U T E
Expenditure
Review Committee
Canberra, 10
November
1988
Amended No.
12013 ER)
Submission
No.
6132
Forward
Est imates
o f
Out lays
1989-90,
1990-91
and
1991-92
The
Committee
agreed t h a t
the r e s u l t s o f the
review o f
adminis t ra t ive arrangements
r e l a t i n g t o s tudent
ass i s t ance
for Aborig inals
Cabinet
Minute 11152 o f 23 May
1988 r e f e r s
be
ready for
cons ide ra t ion by the
Committee
by
February
1989.
Acting Secre ta ry
to Cabinet
Amended
por t ion
This document is the property
of
the Australian Government
and
is not to be
copied
or reproduced
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
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CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
C
opy
No
4
C A B I N E T M I N U T E
Expendi ture Review
Committee
Canberra, 10 November 1988
No. 12012
ER)
Submission
No.
6132
Forward Est imates o f
Outlays
1989-90, 1990-91 and
1991-92
The Committee agreed t h a t the r e s u l t s of the
fol lowing reviews be ready fo r cons ide ra t ion by the Committee
by
February 1989 : -
a ) Guarding Services Departments
are
to
review
guarding serv ices with a
view
to e f f ec t ing
sav ings Cabine t
Minute
11496 o f 26 Ju ly
1988
re fe r s ) ;
b) Aust ra l i an Surveying and
Land
Informat ion
resources necessary
for
rev i s i on
mapping
program
in future
years
Cabinet
Minute
11823 PSR) o f 30
August
1988 r e f e r s ) ;
and
c ) Review of Meteorologica l Services fo r Avia t ion
Cabinet
Minute
11664
o f 4 August 1988
r e f e r s ) .
.
Acting
Secre ta ry
to
Cabinet
This
document is the property
of
the Australian Government and is not to be
copied
or
reproduced
CABINET IN
ON
FIDEN E
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CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
4
opy No
C A B I N E T M I N U T E
Expendi ture Review Committee
Canberra, 10
November
1988
No. 12009 ER)
Submission No. 6132
Forward
Est imates o f
Outlays
1989-90, 1990-91 and 1991-92
The Committee agreed t h a t t he r e s u l t s of the
review o f
the r e s i dua l
funct ions
and
resource
needs of the
Defence
Serv ice
Homes Corporat ion
fo l lowing t he
sa l e
of
i t s
loan por t fo l io Cabinet Minute 11614
o f
4
August
1988
r e f e r s
be
ready
for
cons ide ra t ion
by
t he
Committee
by
February 1989.
Act ing
Secre ta ry
to
Cabinet
This
document is
the
property
of
the
ustralian
Government
and
is not to
be copied
or
reproduced
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CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
Co
py No .3
C A B I N E T M I N U T E
Expenditure Review
Committee
Canberra, l Qi November
19
Ii fi
Amended No;
12008
ER)
Submission
No. 6132
~
Forward
Est imates
o f
Outlays
1989-9
{0
;
1
~
9 0 9 1 and ~ 9 1 9 2
The
Committee noted
the
out look fo r out lays
presented by the Forward E s t i m a t e s
2.
The Committee agreed t h a t : -
the Prime Minis te r , t he Treasurer
and the
Minis ter for
Finance
s e t t l e
the f ina l de ta i l s
o f
the
Forward
Est imates
Report ;
ana
b
the repor t l; e pub l i c l y r e l eased as
soon
rars
p r a c t i c a b l e ~
3 .
In
respec t of
processes fo r the 198\9\-9 .@ Budget,
the Committee fur ther agreed t h a t
a ) Minis ters
lodge Submissions
providing
l i s t i ngs
o f
new
pol icy proposals
in
p r i o r i t y order and
of f se t t i ng savings
by
H
}
:
March in
a
format
to
be advised
by the Department o f
Finance;
2
This
document is the property of the ustralian
Government
and is not
to
be copied or
reproduced
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C BINET IN CONFIDENCE
2.
Amended
No.
12008 ER) C ontd. )
b)
these
l i s t i ngs
be
r e s t r i c t ed
to
h igh
p r i c r i t y
new
pol icy
proposa ls
and iden t i fy
su f f i c i en t
sav ings in
out lays
to
cover
fu l l y
the
o s ~ of
these proposals ;
c) any proposa ls for increased
funding
in 1989-90,
inc luding those a r i s ing from rev iews cur ren t ly
being undertaken,
be
inc luded
in
these
new
pol icy
p r io r i t y
l i s t i ngs ; and
d)
por t fo l io t a rge t s be
used
to
reso lve
minor new
pol icy
is sues and to
achieve
ove ra l l budgetary
savings
Acting Secre ta ry to Cabinet
Amended
por t ion
This document is the property of the ustralian Government and is not
to
be copied or reproduced
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CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
Copy No
. 4_1
C A B I N E T M I N ~ T E
Expendi ture Review Committee
Canberra ,
1Q November
No. 12008 ER)
Submission No. 6132 Forward
Est imates
o f Out lays
~ 8
9 - 9 0 19 9Q-91
and
1991-92
The Committee noted t h e out look ~ ou t lays
pre sen ted
by the
Forward Est imates .
2.
The
Committee
agreed
t h a t
t h e
Prime M in i s t e r t h e Treasure r and the
Min is te r fo r
Finance
s e t t l e
t h e f i n a l
d e t a i l s
o f
th e
Forward
Est imates
Report ; and
( t
t h e
r e por t
be
p u b l i c l y r e l e a se d as soon
ra s1
pra c t i c a b l e .
3. In r e sp e c t o f processe s fo r t h e
19
9 -
@
Budget,
the Committee fu r the r agreed t h a t : -
Minis te r s
lodge Submissions prov id ing
l i s t i n g s
o f new
po l i cy proposa l s
in p r i o r i t y order and
o f f s e t t i n g
savings
by 10 March 1 9 ~ ~
in a
format
~ ~ be
adv ised by t h e
Department
o f i n a n c e
2
This
document
is
the property
of
the
Australian Government and is
not
to be
copied or
reproduced
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
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CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
2.
No
12008
ER) Contd. )
b) these l i s t i n g s be r e s t r i c t ed to high p r ~ s r i t y
new pol icy proposals and
i d e n t i f y s u f f
s ~ n t
sav ings in out lays to cover fu l ly
t he
css t o f
these proposa ls ; and
c) por t fo l io t a rge t s
be used
to r e s o lve minor
new
pol icy i s sues and to achieve ove ra l l budgetary
savings .
Acting Secre ta ry to
Cabinet
This document is the property
of
the ustralian Government nd is not to be copied or reproduced
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
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CABI
ET 1
CONFIDE CE
SubmtSS On No.
OR C BINET
o p ~
o
Title
Minister
Relation
to
existing
policy
Sensitivity
Criticism
Legislation
involved
ency:
tical significant
dates
sultation:
Ministers
Depts
consulted
s
there
agreement?
Timing handling
of
announcement
Cost
FORW RD ESTIMATES
OF
OUTLAYS:
1991-92
1989-90 1990-91 ND
Senator
the Hon Pete r
Walsh
Minis ter
for
Finance
N/A
N/A
N/A
to
provide
a
report on
the forward es t imates
and the t rends they
ind ica te
for Budget ou t lays
for the next t h ree years
copies
of
the
d r a f t
Forward
Est imates Report have
been
lodged
with
the Cabinet Off ice ) ; and
recommend the
commissioning
of some reviews of
programs in areas with gre a t e s t pres su re fo r
growth
and complet ion of e x i s t i ng reviews ea r ly
in the new
year
so as
to
al low
adequate
cons idera t ion
in the Budget context .
To ensure t ha t reviews are completed in t ime
for
Budget
cons idera t ion
the re levant depar tments would
need to be informed
by
ea r ly November. Furthermore
re l ease of the
Forward
Est imates Report in e a r ly
November
would be des i rab le .
Est imates have now
been
prepared by the
Department
of
Finance
i n consu l t a t ion with other depar tments where
necessary . Prime Minis te r
and
Cabine t
and
Treasury
have been consul ted
on
t h i s submission.
Yes see Attachment G p age 23
N/A
N/A
Fin Yr
Fin
Yr
Fin
Yr
6132
3
1
his
document
is the property o the ustral ian Government and is
not
to be copied or reproduced
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Cabi
n
et In Confidence
B CKGROUND ND
ASSUMPTIONS
The
Department of Finance has, in consu l t a t ion with
depar tments and agencies , updated the f inanc ia l and
s t a f f i ng
es t imates for ongoing po l icy
for 1989-90, 1990-91
and 1991-92.
2. Revised procedures agreed
by
Minis ters
in
1987-88 mean
t ha t the
forward
es t imates
for
a
ro l l i ng
t h ree
year
hor izon cur ren t ly 1989-90
to
1991-92) are kept under
r egu la r
review
dur ing
the budget cyc le and hence
provide
a
s o l id
base
as
the es t imates
process
moves
i n to
a
new
budget year .
3. In compiling the es t imates ex i s t ing
po l icy
has been
def ined
in s t r i c t
terms
while allowance has been
made
within Technica l
New
Pol icy
to
accommodate requi rements
for
programs which need formal
cons idera t ion by Minis ters
but where t i s highly probable t ha t funding a t some l evel
w i l l be
required . I l l u s t r a t i v e provis ions have
been
determined by Finance in consu l t a t ion with depar tments on
a case-by-case bas i s . These
i tems
are
l i s t e d
a t
Attachment
A page
10) .
Addi t iona l ly , a
separa te
al lowance has been inc luded in the cont ingency rese rve for
poss ib le
r ev i s ions
to the es t imated
cos t
of de l ive ry of
e x i s t i ng pol ic ies .
4. Overal l , the forward es t imates provide
Government
with
informat ion
on
the
l evel
and
composi t ion of
out lays
over
the
next t h ree
years
t ha t
wi l l
apply in the absence of
po l icy changes .
As such they
provide
the i n i t i a l planning
base for the development of a
budget s t r a t e gy
for
the
coming year .
binet
In
Conidence
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3
ESTIMATES
OF OUTLAYS FOR 1989-90, 1990-91 AND
1991-92
5. The t ab le below
summarises
the out lays es t imates for
the
th ree forward
years
together with
1988-89 Budget
es t imates . The de ta i l ed
es t imates
are
provided a t
Attachment
B
(by
Funct ion)
(page 12)
and
Attachment
C
(by
Por t fo l io (page
13).
6.
The
economic parameters used in
the
der iva t ion of
the
es t imates and the es t imated s e n s i t i v i t y to va r i a t i ons
in
the key
parameters are
a t Attachment D (page
14 .
7.
The
forward
es t imates
show
t o t a l
rea l
out lays
dec l in ing
in
1989-90 followed by growth
in
1990-91
and
1991-92.
The major
reasons
for growth or
dec l ine by
func t ion
are
de ta i l ed a t Attachment
E
(page 16 .
1988-89 1989-90
1990-91
1991-92
Budget
Forward Est imates
Est imate
Tota l
Outlays
m
(excluding Asset
Sales 82713
85991
89888
93608
Real
Growth
on
preceding year
(%)
-2 .2 -0 .2
1.0
0.6
Propor t ion
of GDP
(%)
25.8
24.9
24.3
23.7
Asset
Sales
( m)
-700 -1100 na
na
Total Outlays
( m)
82013
84891
89888
93608
Real Growth on
preceding year
(%)
-1 .8
-0 .7 2.3
0.6
Propor t ion of
GDP
(%)
25.6 24.6
24.3
23.7
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4
THE BUDGET
OUTL YS
T SK
8.
Whils t
the d e t a i l s
of
the
budget
t a sk fac ing us for
1989-90
are
not known a t t h i s s tage a number
of
parameter s
impinging
on t
are a l ready apparent .
9. F i r s t l y we have a l ready foreshadowed
s i gn i f i can t
t ax
cu ts
fo r 1
Ju ly 1989. I t i s
l i ke l y
t ha t
we
w i l l need
to
accompany
these by measures involving add i t iona l ou t l ays .
For
example, we
may
f ind
t
necessary to
i n d i c a t e our
i n t en t ions about meeting
the
ch i ld poverty p ledge:
ra i s ing FAS payments to the
benchmarks of 15 and
20
of
the s tandard
r a t e
of pension
would
cos t
over
200m.
10. Second, ex te rna l
problems
ind ica ted by
cont inuing
adverse
t r ends
in
fore ign
debt and
balance
of
payments
d i c t a t e t ha t f i sca l po l icy w i l l need
to remain
as t i gh t as
poss ib le . That i s l i ke l y to r equ i re tha t out lays growth
remain r e s t r a i n e d and t ha t
the
overa l l 1989-90 Budget be
main ta ined
. in s ign i f i c a n t su rp lus .
11. In any
event
community
expec ta t ions may well have
been
condi t ioned
by our
f requent
pub l i c references to four
consecut ive years
o f out l ays dec l ine and
the
fo recas t of
a
24 1/2% r a t i o
of
out l ays
to
GDP
by 1989-90.
12. Fina l ly exper ience has shown t ha t
even
in a t i gh t
f i s c a l
environment ,
we have f e l t
compelled
to
respond
to
emerging
pressures
and
to
con t inue to
make progress
towards our
soc ia l
goals
through
the
adopt ion of
new
po l i c i e s .
To t h i s end, we
have added between 640m and
970m
to
the forward es t imates in
each of
the
pas t
four
budgets , wi th
corresponding or l a rge r increases in
the
outyears .
This
year we w i l l have
the
added pressures of
i n i t i a t i v e s
assoc ia ted
with the
t ax cu t s .
abinet In Confidence
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5
13. I f
we were
to inc lude as much as 750m fo r new po l icy
in
each of
the forward years ,
fol lowed by
cont inuing
fu l l - ye a r e f f e c t s of
1000m
from each round of new po l icy ,
then out l ays would grow
by about
1/4%
in
rea l terms
in
1989-90,
r i s ing to 3
1/2% in 1990-91. Outlays as
a
propor t ion
of
G P would be 24.8% for both 1989-90 and
1990-91 and would only dec l ine
to
below
24.5%
from 1991-92.
14.
These
problems are
compounded in 1990-91 by
the
cessa t ion
of
the Government 's
cur ren t
asse t sa l e program.
The
ending of
the
program w i l l boost rea l
growth
of
out l ays by
1.3
percen tage po in t s and
reduce
the f i s ca l
surplus
by
over
1
b i l l i on .
Shor t ly , the re
w i l l
be
a
j o i n t
submiss ion from
the M inis te r for Adm inis t ra tive
Services
and me
before
Cabinet proposing an add i t iona l
asse t
sa l es program
tha t
would
cont inue
pas t 1989-90.
15. While
our exper ience with
por t fo l io t a rge t s
and
mi n i s t e r i a l l y
in sp i red o f f s e t t i n g savings
over
the
pas t
two years
has
been
p a r t i a l l y success fu l
t i s
u n l ik e ly
t ha t t ha t
process would
i de n t i f y savings su f f i c i en t fu l l y
to
of f se t
new po l icy in
1989-90,
i f
t ha t were
l a t e r
thought
to
be d e s i r a b l e . I t i s poss ib le t he re fo re ,
t ha t
t w i l l
be
necessary to
augment any
such measures with a
c e n t r a l savings exerc i se .
16.
I t i s
not
necessary
a t
t h i s s tage to
determine
when
t ha t exerc i se
needs to
be conducted
in
1989.
However
t
would be
prudent
to
commence work on
some areas where
i s sues are
more
complicated or
where
the
lead
t imes
in
develoging
opt ions
fo r our cons idera t ion can t ake us well
i n to the
Budget prepara t ion
per iod . Depending
on
how
ci rcumstances develop, we
may
need
to
cons ide r
implementing savings from
Ju ly in
order to maximise
of f s e t s to i n i t i a t i v e s announced with
the
tax package.
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6
17. An ana lys i s
o f
the Forward Est imates and h i s t o r i c a l
spending t rends helps point
to poss ib le
areas
where the re
remains use fu l scope to reorganise spending p r io r i t i e s .
Three quar te r s of t o t a l
growth has been concent ra ted
in
the broad
soc ia l and
welfa re
programs i e
educa t ion ,
h ea l t h ,
soc ia l
s e c u r i t y
and
welfa re ) .
Areas in the so c i a l
and
welfa re
programs where the re are pre ssure s
for growth
over the cur ren t forward es t ima te s per iod a re :
a)
inc reased numbers
of people
qua l i fy ing fo r indexed
pensions
and
b e n e f i t s ;
b)
s ign i f i c a n t
i nc rea se s in
u t i l i s a t i o n
ra te s
of medical
and pharmaceut ical se rv ices and b e n e f i t s e sp e c i a l l y
fo r the pens ioner popula t ion;
c) inc reased s tudent
numbers in t e r t i a r y educa t ion
and
i nc rea se s in per cap i t a funding
l ev e l s
for
schools ;
d)
inc reased p laces in
ch i ld
ca re
programs;
and
e) Government
commitments
to a l l ev i a t e ch i ld pover ty .
18. These programs are a l l pro jec ted to inc rease
in to
the
forward
es t ima te s per iod and
beyond
due to demographic
f a c to r s , coverage and i nc rea se s
in
average rea l be ne f i t s .
While some
growth
f ac to r s are amenable to government
po l icy , othe rs are not so e a s i l y inf luenced.
19.
I
propose
t h a t
we
should
examine
some
o f
the
programs
in
t h i s area wi th the
ob jec t ive o f
i den t i fy ing ach ievab le
longer - t e rm
savings .
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7
20. Reviews of
a number of programs
i n i t i a t e d in
other
con tex t s
a re a l ready
under way, and
are
l i s t e d a t
Attachment F page
18) . Severa l
of t he se
reviews, denoted
with
an
as t e r i sk
in
Attachment
F, have the po te n t i a l
to
achieve savings to the Budget. We should
reques t
r e levan t
Minis ters
to
ensure t ha t these reviews are completed and
repor ted to
ERC
by
February . Other
reviews
which might
have an
impact
upon out l ays in 1989-90 should be
dea l t
with
in
the
new
pol icy context .
1989-90 BUDGET OUTL YS
PROCESSES
21.
We do
not
need
to
dec ide
the
d e t a i l s
of
the
budget
out lays processes
for
next
year
a t
t h i s s tage , a l though
some broad ou t l ine of
the
t ime tab le and process
requi rements
a t
t h i s t ime
would be he lp fu l
to Minis ters
and t h e i r
departments
fo r planning purposes . I f we
wish
to have the
t ax
cu t s
in
place from
Ju ly , the l ead
t ime
involved for the Taxat ion Office and
employers means
t ha t
the tax measures and
any assoc ia ted new po l icy
w i l l
have
to
be announced
by mid
Apr i l .
Consequent ly ,
in
the
absence of a change
to
the promulgated pa t t e rn of s i t t i n g
days fo r t he
Autumn 1989 sess ion of
par l iament , the l a t e s t
da te fo r
the
s ta tement would be 12 Apr i l .
22. At
t h i s
s tage we should keep open our
opt ions
for
cons ider ing
i s sues unre la ted
to the tax measures fo r
announcement in Apr i l , al though
the
Commonwealth pos i t ion
concern ing
the Sta tes Financ ia l Ass is tance
Grants
wil l
need
to
be determined before
the
Premiers Conference.
Depending upon the s i ze of
the
t a sk tha t conf ron t s us
nex t
year , t
may be poss ib le
to cons ider the
major i ty
of the
remaining budget out l ays i s sues in one s tage between May
and
August . This might
involve
conf in ing comment
in
an
e a r ly economic s ta tement to a l imi ted
number
of out l ays
measures
accompanied
by
an up to da te s e t of forward
es t imates and poss ib ly
a
commitment
to
some out lays t a rge t
for
the
Budget.
We
can
recons ider these i s sues in
February.
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23. ~ h
two-s tage new
po l icy process involving an ea r ly
s i f t i n g of
proposals
by
ERC
before
de ta i led submissions
were
prepared
worked
well dur ing
the
l a s t
Budget
process
and
I
be l ieve
we
should
adopt a s imi la r process again .
However
I
cons ider
t ha t t
would
a s s i s t us in meeting our
budget
t a rge t s
and
t e s t i ng the r e l a t i ve mer i t s
of
the
new
proposa l s i f Minis t e r s were
a lso
asked to i de n t i f y
proposa ls to
achieve o f f s e t t i n g savings .
I t
would be
des i rab le fo r Expenditure Review Committee
to
have
before
t a summary of
new
po l icy proposa l s as t en te rs i t s
discuss ions in March/Apri l .
A
submiss ion da te of 10
March
for new po l icy proposals
is
t he re fo re recommended.
24.
The
por t fo l io t a rge t
process
was
a l so success fu l
f ree ing us c o l l e c t i ve ly
from
cons idera t ion of
a number
of
minor i s sues al lowing ind iv idua l Minis t e r s f reedom
to
rea l loca te
p r i o r i t i e s and
to fund minor new
p o l i cy
and
achieving
worthwhi le
ne t
sav ings
to the Budget . I suggest
we should
plan
on
using t a rge t s in a s imi la r way next year .
RECOMMEND TIONS
25. I recommend
t ha t
Cabinet :
a) note
the
out look fo r ou t lays
presented
by
the
forward
es t imates ;
b)
agree
t ha t
Forward
Est imates Report should be
publ ished as
soon as
p ra c t i c a b l e ;
c)
au thor i se
me
to
f i n a l i s e and
to r e lease the
Forward
Est imates Report in
co n s u l t a t i o n
with
the
Prime
Minis t e r and the Treasure r ;
d) dec ide
what add i t iona l
reviews
and work
might
be
commissioned
now
so
tha t
r epor t s can be ava i l ab le
for decis ion-making
by February
1989;
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e) note the rev iews i de n t i f i e d
in
Attachment F t h a t are
c u r re n t l y under
way
and:
i ) in re spec t of those rev iews denoted with an
a s t e r i s k reques t
t ha t
the re l evan t
Min i s t e r s
bring forward repor t s on the r e s u l t s of those
rev iews
by February
1989;
and
i i )
agree
t ha t the r e s u l t s
of
othe r reviews
should
be brought forward
wi th in
the new pol i cy
con tex t ;
f ) note
the probab le
t iming impl i ca t ions
of
an
economic
s ta tement
in Apr i l ;
g) agree to cons ider
out l ays
i s sues
fo r
inc lus ion
in
the s ta tement in e a r l y 1989;
h) agree t h a t Minis t e r s should lodge submiss ions
providing l i s t i n g s
of
new pol i cy proposa l s in
p r i o r i t y order
and
of f s e t t i ng sav ings
by
10 March,
in
a format to be
advised
by the Department of
Finance;
i )
agree
t ha t these l i s t i n g s should
be
r e s t r i c t e d
to
high p r i o r i t y new p o l i c y
proposa ls ,
and should
i de n t i f y
s u f f i c i e n t sav ings in
out l ays
to cover
fu l l y the cos t o f these proposa ls ; and
j ) agree to the
use
of p o r t fo l i o t a rg e t s to
resolve
minor new pol i cy i s sues and to ach ieve
o v e r a l l
budgetary sav ings .
21 October 1988
P T R W LSH
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C u b ~ ~ e
rr. Confidence
ATTACHMENT
A
10
TECHNICAL NEW POLICY
Commonwealth
Sta te
Housing
Agreement
inc luding
Housing
Assis tance
to
the
ACT
1989-90
1990-91 1991-92
710.7m
710.7m
A minimum funding
l eve l of
700m has been agreed
under
the
CSHA
for
the t r iennium
1987-88
to 1989-90. An amount
of
10.705m
i s also provided
to
the ACT for
housing
a s s i s t a n c e
under
'CSHA-type' arrangements . The forward
es t imates
assume t ha t the
same
l evel of funds as t ha t
agreed for
1989-90
wil l
be
provided in the outyears .
Nat iona l Libra ry
Fi re
Detec t ion
1989/90 1990/91
1991/92
2.2m 1.
m
CD
11675 of
4
August
1988
agreed to ,
i n t e r
a l i a , complete
the
program for f i r e de tec t ion and pro tec t ion with of f s e t s
to
be provided when
a
Submission on the review of
the
Nat iona l
Library i s
brought forward. The review i s ye t to
be
f i na l i s e d and the i nd ica t ive
cos t s
of the program
(wi thout any o f f se t s )
have been
inc luded
in
the
es t imates
on a prov is iona l basis .
Fi lm
Finance Corporat ion
1989-90
74.8m
1990-91
61. Om
1991-92
63.0m
CD
11074(ER)
of
10
May 1988 agreed t ha t amounts , terms
and
cond i t ions for appropr ia t ions beyond 1988-89, would
be
determined
in the Budget context .
Ind ica t ive
f igures
conta ined in
the M i n i st e r s Cabinet Submission have been
inc luded in the es t imates .
Papua New Guinea Budget
Support
1989-90 1990-91
1991-92
275.0m
The
presen t agreement cover ing budget
support for
Papua
New Guinea expi res in 1990-91. I t
i s expected t ha t
the
agreement wi l l be renewed. The
es t ima te fo r
1991-92 i s
based on
the same
nominal l eve l of funding.
abinet
l n C o n f ~ c l c r H . c
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C u b i r . c : . ~ ~ 1 C o n f i d e n c e
11
Nat ional Campaign Against Drug Abuse NCADA)
1989-90 1990-91
TT CHMENT
A
1991-92
26.6m
The cur ren t
t r ienn ium
for
NC D
exp i res
a t the end
of
1990/91. I t
i s
an t i c ipa ted
t ha t
the
program wi l l
be
renewed fol lowing evalua t ion . The
es t ima te
for 1991-92 i s
based on
the
same nominal l eve l o f funding.
Program
to Combat the
Transmission
of
AIDS
1989-90 1990-91 1991-92
21. Om
In 1991/92,
funding
r eve r t s
back
to
the ongoing base
program. I t
i s
expected
t ha t add i t i ona l
amounts
wi l l
be
a l loca t ed following cons idera t ion by Minis te rs . The
es t ima te
for
1991-92 i s based
on the
same nominal l eve l of
funding.
Supported
Accommodation Assis tance Program
1989-90
68.7m
1990-91
7l . lm
1991-92
73.2m
Agreements with the
Sta tes and
T e r r i t o r i e s
under
the
Supported
Accommodation Assis tance Act 1985
exp i res on
30
June 1989. Funding for t h i s program i s expected
to be
renewed
followng
negot ia t ions
between
the
Commonwealth and
the
Sta tes and
T er r i to r i e s .
Cabinet
In Confidence
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ATTACHMENT B
12
OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION
1988-89 TO 1991-92
CHANGE
FUNCTION
BUDGET
ON
1988-89 1989-90 1988-89
1990-91 1991-92
m
m
m
r
m
m
1
DEFENCE
7,658.2 8,029.0
370.8
4.8
8,526.1
9,002.0
2.
EDUCATION 6 ,
307
.2
6,531.9
224.7 3.6
6,976.7
7,360.1
3. HEALTH
10,797.3 11,670.7 873.3
8. 1
12 ,855.6
14,031.5
4.
SOCIAL SECURITY AND
WELFARE
23,718.8
24,771 .5
1,052. 7
4.4
25,826.4
26,642.3
5.
HOUSING AND
COMMUNITY
AMMENITIES
NEC
1,328 .8 1 353 .8 25.0
1.9
1 308 . 1
1,292 .0
6.
CULTURE
AND
RECREATION
1,072.3 1,021.0
-51.3
-4 .8
1 ,010 .3 1,036.2
7.
ECONOMIC SERVICES
-
A.
TRANSPORT AND
COMMUNICATION
1,691.9
1,300.7 -391.2 -23.1
1,323.3
1,301 . 3
B.
INDUSTRY
ASSISTANCE AND
DEVELOPMENT
2,096.6
1 944. 1
-152.5
-7 .3
1,906.5
1 831 .0
c.
LABOUR AND EMPLOYMENT
1,070.9
1
113. 1
42.2
3.9
1.118. 1 1. 170.7
D. OTHER
ECONOMIC
SERVICES
211.9
154
.3
-57.6
-27 .2
157.8 157 .9
---------
---------
--------
-------
--------- ---------
TOTAL
ECONOMIC
SERVICES
5,071.3
4,512.2
-559 . 1
-11.0
4,505.7
4,461.0
8. GENERAL PUBLIC
SERVICES
-
A. LEGISLATIVE
SERVICES
386 .8 304.2 -82.6 -21 .4
245.3
246
.3
B.
LAW,
ORDER
AND PUBLIC
SAFETY
622.6
606
.2 -16 . 5 -2 .6 609.7 602.8
c. FOREIGN AFFAIRS
AND OVERSEAS
AID
1,463.8 1,493.2 29.4
2.0 1,529.6
1,580.9
D. GENERAL AND
SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH NEC
500.7
530.0 29.3 5.9
543.6 542.3
E.
ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES
2,780.5
2,949.7
169.2
6.1
3,174.3
3,370.3
--
------- ---------
--------
-------
--------- ---------
TOTAL GENERAL PUBLIC
SERVICES 5,754 .3
5,883.2 128
.8 2 .2 6,102 .6
6,342.6
OT ALLOCATED
TO
FUNCTION
-
A. PAYMENTS TO
OTHER
GOVERNMENTS,
NEC
13,235.0
14,288.4
1,053.4 8.0
14 ,716.3 15,210.4
B.
PUBLIC
DEBT INTEREST
7,639 .8 7,229 . 5 -410 . 2 -5.4
7,010.0
6,880 .0
c. CONTINGENCY
RESERVE 130.0 700.0 570.0
n
1,050.0
1,350.0
D. ASSET SALES
-700.0
-1 '1 00 .0
-400.0
57.1
.0
.0
--------- ---------
--------
-------
--------- ---------
TOTAL NOT ALLOCATED TO FUNCTION 20,304.8 21,117 .9 813 . 1 4 .0 22,776.2 23,440.4
---------
---------
--------
-------
---------
---------
TOTAL OUTLAYS
82,013.0 84,891 .0 2,878 .0 3 .5 89,887 .7 93,608 . 1
Cabinet
In Confidence
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C a b ~ n c ~ f n C o n f i d e n c e
ATTACHMENT C
13
OUTLAYS BY PORTFOLIO, 1988-89 TO 1991-92
CHANGE
PORTFOLIO
BUDGET
ON
1988-89 1989-90 1988-89 1990-91
1991-92
m
m m
1
m m
PARLIAMENT
115.2 97.3
-18 .0
-15 .6 94.5 96.1
ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES
1 200 .4
1 272.4
72
.0
6.0
1 265. 7 1 263.8
ARTS, SPORT,
THE ENVIRONMENT, TOURISM
787.1
511
.3 -275 .8
-35.0
481.5
479.4
AND TERRITORIES
ATTORNEY GENERAL
569.2
584
. 1 14.9 2 .6 597.1 587.7
COMMUNITY
SERVICES
AND HEALTH
15 828.7
17.175.2
1 346.4
8 . 5
18 565.1 19 833.9
OF WHICH
-
-
VETERANS
AFFAIRS
4 369.1 4 627 .5 258.4
5 .9
4 735.3
4 786.5
DEFENCE 7 709.9
8 034.6
324.7
4.2 8 543.0
9 013.1
EMPLOYMENT,
EDUCATION
AND
TRAINING
7 374.5
7 971.7
1 346.4
8 .5
8 437.2
8 885.0
OF WHICH
-
- ABORIGINAL AFFAIRS
467.1 496.9
29.8
5.4 503.9 510.7
FINANCE
690.9 667.2 -23.7 -3 .4 758.4 823.8
FOREIGN
AFFAIRS
1 379 .8 1 438.4
58.5
4.2
1 487.1
1 538.9
IMMIGRATION, LOCAL
GOVERNMENT
AND
212.4 214.2
1.8
.8 220.9 226.2
ETHNIC AFFAIRS
INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS
228.1 295.1 67.0
29
.4 292 .8
290.6
INDUSTRY,
TECHNOLOGY AND
COMMERCE
1
320
. 1
1 255 .4
-64 . 7 -4 .9
1 191.2
1 077 .9
PRIMARY INDUSTRIES AND ENERGY
1 409.4 1 320.3
-89.1
-6.3 1 386.2
1 440.1
PRIME MINISTER
AND CABINET
95.9 65.3
-30.6 -31 .9
64.1
56.6
SOCIAL SECURITY
19 056.8 19 855 .0 798.3
4.2
20 668 .6 21 372.0
TRANSPORT
AND
COMMUNICATIONS
2 162. 7
1 960.2
-202 .5
-9
. 4
1 998.0
2 014.5
TREASURY
22 441.8 22 573.3
131
.5
.6 22 786.2 23 248.4
NOT ALLOCATED TO
PORTfOLIO
- CONTINGENCY RESERVE
130
.0
700
.0 570.0
438
.5 1 050 .0 1 350.0
-
ASSET
SALES
-700.0
-1 100.0
-400.0
57 . 1
.0 .0
--------- ---------
--------
-------
--------- ---------
TOTAL
OUTLAYS
82 013.0
84 891.0
2 878.0 3 .5
89 887.7 93 608.1
Cabinet
In Confidence
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ATTACHMENT D
14
ECONOMIC
PARAMETERS
AND ASSUMPTIONS UNDERPINNING
THE
FORWARD ESTIMATES
1988-89* 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92
Def la to r s
(
inc rease
year-on-year)
AWE
(Survey
bas i s ,
persons)
5.4
5.3
4.5 4. 5
CPI
5.8 4 .2 3 .5 3 .5
Personal
consumption
5.3 4.2 3.5 3 .5
GDP
6.2
4.2
3.5
3.5
GDP
(non-farm) 6.0 4.2 3 .5 3 .5
GNE 4.6 4 .2 3 .5
3.5
Economic Aggregates
GDP
r ea l
(
r ea l
increase
year-on-year)
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
Average
unemployment
Benef i t r ec ip ien t s
( 000)
462
449 439
436
Exchange
Rates :
US/ A
.80
.80
.80
.80
TWI
60
60 60 60
* C u r r e n t
assumptions for
1988-89.
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TT CHMENT E
16
M JOR RE SONS
FOR
RE L GROWTH IN OUTL YS BY FUNCTION
1988-89 BUDGET)
TO
1991-92
Note:
Bracketed
f igures
r e f e r
to
t o t a l
rea l
growth over
the
forward es t ima te s
per iod .
DEFENCE +5.3 per
cent )
Real growth
planning guidance announced in
the
1988 Budget
of 0 .5 per
cent
in
1988-89, 1.0
per
cent
in
1989
and
2.0
per
cent
t he rea f t e r .
EDUCATION +4.5 per
cent )
Increased
funding
for
educa t ion
in the
t e r t i a r y sec to r and
s tudent ass i s t ance
schemes; p a r t l y
of f se t
by in t roduc t ion
of
revised
CT
Fiscus
in
1989-90
and fu l l
year e f f e c t s
of
the Higher
Educat ion
Contr ibut ion
Scheme.
HE LTH
+16.4
per
cent )
Increased
u t i l i s a t i o n
and average cos t s of medical and
pharmaceut ica l
benef i t s ,
and enhanced funding
fo r pub l i c
hosp i t a l s and
nurs ing
homes.
SOCIAL SECURITY
ND WELF RE
+0.6
per
cent )
Expansion of family ass i s t ance , of f s e t
by
a pro jec ted
dec l ine in b en e f i c i a r y
numbers
of
unemployment
be ne f i t s .
HOUSING ND
COMMUNITY
AMENITIES -12 .9 per
cent )
Reduced
payments under F i r s t Home
Owner
Scheme
and
t e rmina t ion of
d i rec t
lending under
the
Defence
Services
Homes
scheme fol lowing sa l e of
loan
p o r t f o l i o ; p a r t i a l l y
o f f s e t
by i n t e r e s t subs idy
to purchaser
of
Defence Service
Homes
Scheme
fo r
ex i s t ing borrowers .
CULTURE ND
RECREATION
-13 .4 per
cent)
Complet ion
of b icen tenn ia l ce leb ra t ions ,
inc luding winding
up
of
the Aus t ra l i an Bicentennia l Author i ty ,
o f f s e t by
commitment
to
provide
f inanc ia l a ss i s t ance to
Aus t ra l i an
f i lm
and
t e l e v i s ion product ion
and
funding inc reases for
the
Aus t ra l i an
Broadcast ing
Corpora t ion and
Spec ia l
Broadcast ing Service .
TRANSPORT
ND
COMMUNIC TION -31 .1
per
cent )
Repayment of
cap i t a l advances
by
Telecom and Aust ra l i a
Post and
a
decrease
in the Road Transpor t Program as a
consequence of
the
CT Fiscus arrangements .
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ATTACHMENT
E
17
INDUSTRY ASSISTANCE AND DEVELOPMENT -21 .8
per
cent )
Subs tan t i a l decreases
in
ass i s t ance to
primary and
secondary i n d u s t r i e s
and
complet ion
of the Burdekin Dam
LABOUR
AND
EMPLOYMENT
-2 .1
per
cent )
Terminat ion
of
heavy
eng ineer ing and r a in fo r e s t labour
adjustment
programs;
of f se t
by increases in t ake-up fo r
the
Aus t ra l i an
Tra ineeship System and t r a in ing i n i t i a t i v e s
for long-term unemployed,
Aborig ina ls
and
so le pa ren t s .
OTHER ECONOMIC SERVICES -23 .2 per cent)
Exp i ra t ion of
a
program of ass i s t ance to the Northern
Te r r i t o ry E l e c t r i c i t y Program in
1988-89.
LEGISLATIVE SERVICES
-43 .0
per
cent )
Reduced out lays by
the
Par l i ament
House Const ruc t ion
Author i ty a t t r i bu t ab l e to f i n a l i s a t i o n
of
New
Par l i ament
House.
LAW ORDER AND
PUBLIC SAFETY -13 .3
per
cent )
Ongoing a c t i v i t i e s for
t h i s
func t ion are b road ly
maintained in r e a l
terms and
the apparent dec l ine in
revised
f inanc ia l arrangements for
the ACT
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
AND
OVERSEAS AID
-3 .2 per
cent )
Reduced
out l ays due to
complet ion
of the Bei j ing Chancery
p a r t i a l l y
of f se t
by
nominal increases
in
overseas aid .
GENERAL
AND
SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH -2 .9 per cent )
The
decrease
i s mainly due
to
revised funding arrangements
fo r
CSIRO,
involving
reduced
Commonwealth con t r ibu t ions .
ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES
+8
6
per
cent )
Prepara t ions
for
the conduct of the 1991 census ;
inc reased
repayments
under the
ins ta lment
purchase
of f i c e
cons t ruc t ion
program;
inc reased r en t
payments
and
growing
numbers of superannua t ion be ne f i c i a r i e s .
ASSISTANCE
TO
OTHER
GOVERNMENTS NEC
+3.0
per
cent )
In t roduc t ion
of a
f inanc ia l
ass i s t ance grant to the ACT
f i scus of f s e t by
reduc t ions
of out lays
in
a number of
func t ions ) .
PUBLIC
DEBT
INTEREST -19 .3 per cent )
Combined
e f fec t
of budget surplus and assumpt ions r e l a t i ng
to
i n t e r e s t
and
exchange
ra te s .
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18
ATTACHMENT
F
POST
BUDGET COMEBACK
PAPERS
Adminis t ra t ive
se rv ices
Aus t ra l i an Cons t ruc t ion
Services
computing a c qu i s i t i on -
fo l lowing
f i na l i sa t i on
o f the
Acquis i t ion
Counci l
process
CM
11657) - Report expected to
be
endorsed by
Counci l
around
l a t e
November 1988 with submission to
be
lodged
sh o r t l y a f t e r . Savings are expected
in
t he
medium
te rm.
Guarding Services -
Departments are
to
review
guarding
se rv i c e s
with
a view to e f f e c t i n g savings CM
11496).
Aus t ra l i an
Surveying
and
Land
Informat ion
-
resources
necessary
for
rev i s ion mapping
program in
fu tu re
years
to be reviewed by Cabinet in
the
1989-90 Budget con tex t .
PSR 11823) .
Review o f
Meteoro logica l
Services for Avia t ion -
fo r
cons idera t ion in
the 1989-90
Budget con tex t CM 11664).
Review o f
Government
purchasing po l icy CM
11141)
-
smal l
inc rease in out lays for
running
cos t s i s being
sought .
A r t s
Spor t s the
Environment ,
Tourism
and
Ter r i t o r i e s
Management
arrangements
fo r the
proposed
Wet Trop ica l
Rainfo res t s World Her i t age Area
CM 10869)
-
po t en t i a l
c os t o f up to 7m t o e s t a b l i s h a
management
a u thor i t y .
Maintenance and prese rva t ion o f the
Nat iona l Museum
o f
Aust ra l i a Col lec t ion CM 11673).
Management
Review
o f
the
Austra l ian
Nat iona l
Gal l e ry
CM
11673).
Review of the
Nat iona l
Library
CM
11675) .
Review of the Office o f the Supervis ing S c i e n t i s t
CM
11675).
Enhancing
Aus t ra l i an Research i n to Greenhouse Climat ic
Change CM
11674) - submiss ion expected be fore end o f
1988. Poten t i a l cos t 5m over 4 years .
obinet l n C c n f ~ d e n c e
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19
ATTACHMENT F
Review o f
Heri tage
Commission Act due
be fore end o f
1988, po te n t i a l
cos t s around 2m.
*
Review o f
Aus t ra l i an Film
Commission
t iming
unknown,
l i ke l y to
achieve
savings
Attorney
General s
Spec ia l
Inves t iga t ions Unit CM
11591) by
June
1989.
Likely impact on
out lays around 2m.
Community
serv ices and Health
Commonwealth
Rehab i l i t a t ion Serv ice devo lu t ion
to
t he
Sta tes
CM 11051) fo r cons idera t ion in the
1989-90
Budget con tex t
Pharmaceut ical
Benef i t s Scheme
presc r ib ing o f
expensive drugs CM 11148) due before December
1988.
Charges fo r r eg i s t r a t i on
of t he rapeu t i c
goods
fo r
cons idera t ion
in
the 1989-90 Budget con tex t CM 11719) .
Commonwealth
Serum Labora tor ies
cons t ruc t ion
on new
s i t e
CM
11721)
submiss ion
due l a t e November
1988.
I f
a l l
CSL a c t i v i t i e s
t r ans fe r red to
new
s i t e cos t s
could
be
o f f s e t
by
sa l e o f
old
s i t e
*
Review
o f
housing programs by Minis te r fo r
Housing
and
Aged
Care, scheduled fo r comple t ion by December
1988.
Veterans f fa irs
* Residual funct ion
and
resource
impl ica t ions o f the
Defence
Service Homes
Corporat ion fo l lowing
s a l e o f
t h e
loan por t fo l io CM 11614).
Repa t r ia t ion
Pharmaceut ical
Benef i ts
Scheme
working
par ty
to i nves t iga te and r e p o r t on c o s t s and be ne f i t s o f
amalgamating admin is t r a t ion o f RPBS with
the
PBS
CM 10618) t iming
unknown, l i ke l y
to ach ieve
smal l
savings
i accepted
GbHeei ln Confidenco
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20
ATACHMENT F
Employment, Educat ion
and Tra in ing
Discussion
paper
on r a i s i ng i n d u s t r y s con t r ibu t ion to
the na t iona l
t r a i n i n g e f f o r t CM 11155
Abor ig ina l Educat ion
Pol icy
CM 11723 -
e a r ly 1989.
Outlays by the Sta tes a f fec t ing
Abor ig ines
and Torre s
S t r a i t I s l anders CM
11653
-
due
be fore end of
1988
Evalua t ion o f
the
Tra in ing
fo r
Aborig ina ls
Program
CM 11655
-
fo r cons idera t ion in the
1989-90 Budget
con tex t
En t ry - leve l
Tra ining Arrangements -
Review
e x i s t i ng
Commonwealth
programs
of suppor t
fo r
e n t ry - l e ve l
t r a i n i ng , pa r t i cu l a r l y t hose r e l a t i ng to
Appren t i cesh ip
and
the Aus t ra l i an
Tra ining
System (ATS) -
as required
by CD
6371 - due before
end
December 1988.
Nat iona l Stra tegy For
Schools
-
j o i n t
Commonwealth/State
review
o f schoo ls
a t
i n s t i ga t ion of Minis ter -
r e p o r t
due end December 1988.
Review the admin is t r a t ive arrangements
r e l a t i ng to
Student Ass is tance
fo r
Aborig ina ls CM
11152
-
j o i n t
DOF/DEET review
Finance
Report
of
ad hoc Committee on Rent and
U t i l i t i e s
Assis tance
fo r Of f ice r s on Long-term Overseas
Post ings
CM 11157 - Report due
to
be completed by l a t e
November.
Impact
on ou t lays
l i ke l y to be l e s s than
Sm.
Review o f
the Commonwealth Superannuat ion
Scheme
-
r e p o r t
to
be completed by Department
o f
Finance review
team by end March 1989.
Indus t ry , Technology and Commerce
Review
o f
Export
Market Development Grants Scheme
CM 11162
-
review by
ea r ly 1990, but no e f f e c t on
ou t lays un t i l
1991-92.
abinet
ln Confkl2nce
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21
ATTACHMENT F
Commercial
t a r i f f concession sys tem CM
11164) due
September 1988, poss ib le e f fec t s
on revenue
r a the r than
ou t l ays .
Indus t ry development
arrangements fo r
informat ion
i ndus t r i e s
CM 11188)
repor t to SAC
by
30 October
1988.
Sta teg ies for Regulatory
Reform
repor t due October
1989. Impact on out l ays up to
0.5m
fo r DITAC
running
cos t s .
In t e r agency cos t
recovery
charging procedures a t
i n t e rna t iona l a i rpo r t s
CM 11830)
due end September
1988.
Primary In d u s t r i e s and Energy
Quaran t ine Review Committee
Repor t
CM 11648) by
31
October
1988.
Likely
impact around
3.7m.
Lemonthyne and Southern
Fores t Tasmania
CM 11736)
f inanc ia l package
fo r
proposed h e r i t a g e nominat ions
and
assoc ia ted i s sues .
Est imated
c o s t o f
43m
over 5
year s .
Review
of research and development a c t i v i t i e s
in
t he
Primary
Indus t r i e s and Energy Por t fo l io
Review has
been
i n t e rna l ly
i n s t iga ted
by Minis ter .
Soc ia l Secur i ty
Child
Support
Scheme
CM 11680
to
11683) repor t s
expected within
nex t th ree months on
a
range o f
i s sues
in
t ime fo r implementa t ion
o f Stage 2
from
1
Ju ly
1989.
Simpl i f i ca t ion and improvement
of
f r inge
be ne f i t
arrangements
CM
11685) in the 1989-90 Budget con tex t .
In i t i a t i v e s
to
a s s i s t
people
with
d i s a b i l i t i e s
CM 11685) in the 1989-90 Budget con tex t .
Proposa l s
on
r e t i r ement
income
fo l lowing Soc ia l
S ecu r i t y
Review
CM
11685)
Deta i l s
o f i n t eg ra t ion
o f
Addi t iona l Pensions i n t o
FAS
payment system from
December
1989 CM 11687)
in
t he -
1989-90 Budget context .
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22
ATTACHMENT
F
Assurance o f
Support
Scheme
CM
11691) expec ted in
October o r November
1988.
Minor sav ings
in
1989-90.
Review
of
housing
ass i s t ance
by
Minis ter
fo r
Soc ia l
Secur i ty
scheduled
fo r complet ion
by December 1988.
ransport and
communication
Methodology to determine Light
Navigat ion Dues Charges
and co l l e c t i on o f charges
fo r
Commonwealth
nav iga t iona l
a ids CM
10714)
repor t l i ke ly by January 1989,
budget
neu t ra l outcome
l i ke ly .
Commonwealth involvement in development and opera t ion of
a i rpo r t s
CM
11466(ER))
- d u e
by
end
November.
Cost recovery
arrangements for
AUSTEL s t echn ica l
regu la t ion
and se rv ice
l i cens ing
CM
11188).
reasury
Income Equa l i s a t ion Deposi t Scheme
CM
11097)
submiss ion expected by
December
poss ib le e f f e c t
on
ATO
running cos t s .
Loan Council and PSBR t rea tment o f
p r i va t e
s ec to r
involvement
in
j o i n t
ventures
with
Telecom CM
11187).
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TT CHMENT
G
23
CO ORDINATION COMMENTS
Prime Minis ter and Cabinet
The
Department
of
the
Prime
Minis t e r
and
Cabine t
notes
the
impl ica t ions of
the
Forward Est imates and of
changes
to
persona l
income
t ax for
f i sca l po l icy in 1989-90 and
beyond.
The Department cons ider s in consequence
t ha t
t
i s
necessary for
the 1989-90 Budget process
to
remain
f l e x ib l e and suppor t s
the immediate
commencement of
add i t iona l
reviews and acce le ra t ion of e x i s t i n g
reviews
where appropr ia te with r epor t s
to
be
ava i l ab le
by
end-February 1989.
Treasury
Treasury
suppor ts
the
recommendations
con ta ined
in the
Submission inc luding: tha t
add i t iona l
expendi ture reviews
be commissioned on a
no-commitment bas i s ;
t he proposed
t imetabl ing for
the complet ion of
reviews a l ready
underway;
and the
l i s t i ngs of p r i o r i t y new po l icy
proposa l s along with
o f f s e t t i n g
savings
by mid-March
1989.
[39]