2003
2013
Reduced freeze frequency allows mangrove
encroachment into new habitat
References:Cavanaugh et al. 2014Saintilan et al. 2014Osland et al. 2013
Range Expansion
WarmingImpedes Mangroves
Salt Marsh Dominance
Warming EnhancesMangroves
FreezeEvent Time between Freeze Events
Mangrove Colonizing Site
Mangrove Encroachment Under Chronic Warming
Time
FreezeEvent
?Salt marsh or
Bare or Mangrove?
Time After Rare Freeze Event
Cape Canaveral Study Site Mangrove
Laguncularia racemosaSalt Marsh
Distchilis spicata
KSC
Response to WarmingMangrove Seedlings (Avicennia)
Minimal
Salt marsh (Distichlis)Strong positive effect but only in Summer
Small Chamber Warming StudyMangrove Seedlings & Salt Marsh
Coldren et al. In Press (Ecology)
2.5m
2.5m
6m
Control (Ambient) Warming Chambers
Warming Study Experimental DesignWarming Treatments
August 2014 to June 2016
Size and Coverage:MangrovesSalt Marsh
Physical Characteristics:Air TemperatureSoil TemperatureHumidity Salinity
3 Replicates
Mangrove Dominated Zone
Salt Marsh Dominated Zone
SamplingArm
SamplingArm
Sediment Elevation Table (SET)
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
15
20
Air T
empe
rature Differen
ce o C
Warming Chamber Effect on Air Temperature
Max.: 15.6 oC
Min.: ‐4.9 oC
Avg. Diff.: 1.8 oC
Other Physical Characterizes: No significant Effects
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Aug 2014 Jan 2015 Aug 2015 Jan 2016 June 2016
Distchlis Hiegh
t (cm
)
Distchlis Height Ambient
Warmed
Distchlis Over Time
(Initiation)
0200
Distchli…
Season
Ambient Warmed
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Ambient Warmed
Cano
py Volum
e Ch
ange (m
3 )
Canopy Volume
P<0.0400
Change in Laguncularia Size(22 Months)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ambient Warmed
Heigh
t Cha
nge(cm)
Height
P<0.0479
0200
Distchli…
Season
Ambient Warmed
Laguncularia Leaves(After 22 months warming)
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
AMBIENT WARMED
Leaf Area (m
m2 )
Leaf Size
P<0.0582
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ambient Warmed
# Leaf Pairs Present/ Bran
ch
Leaf Abundance
P<0.1036
Ambient Warmed
0200
Distchli…
Season
Ambient Warmed
Laguncularia Transition(22 Months)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Ambient Warmed
Chan
ge in
% M
angrov
e Co
ver P<0.0063
Recruitment~3‐4 Seedlings0 Saplings
0200
Distchli…
Season
Ambient Warmed
Sediment Elevation Change(22 Months)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ambient MeanWarmed MeanAmbient Salt Marsh MeanWarmed Salt Marsh MeanAmbient Mangrove MeanWarmed Mangrove Mean
Elevation Ch
ange (m
m)
Warming
Ambient Warmed Ambient Warmed Ambient Warmed
Whole Plot(NS)
Whole Plot(NS)
Salt Marsh(P<0.097)
Salt Marsh(P<0.097)
Mangrove(P<0.046)
Mangrove(P<0.046)
Under chronic warming– Adult mangroves responded strongly
• Increased size and leaf characteristics– Previous Work: Avicennia seedlings showed minimal responses
– Salt marsh only responded in summer– Previous Work: Same response
– Enhanced transition to mangrove dominance• A result of increased canopy expansion
– Sediment Elevation Gain: • Mangrove areas increased• Salt marsh areas decreased
Conclusion
Acknowledgements
Funding •NASA Grant # NNX12AF55G•NASA‐CASI (Climate Adaptation Science Investigator)Assistance •Lorae Simpson, Ray Feller, Cheryl Doughty, Heather Tran, Chelsea Barreto, Richard Mulroy, Kathryn Tiling
Samantha Chapman Adam Langley Candy Feller
Questions?