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Achieving Design Balance in the Age of Asymmetry
Rick McCraryDirector, Int’l. Business DevelopmentBoeing Military AircraftFebruary 14, 2012
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Spectrum Life
Agility
Acceleration Turn rate
Processing power
Survivability
Safety
External / internal stores
Range
Supportability
Deployability
Speed
Environmental control systems
Hydraulic system
Handling Maneuverability
Fuel load / placementMaintainability
Cost / capability trade-offsAcquisition costs
Abort / arrestment system
Schedule
Weight Size Wing loading
Approach speedSelf-defense systems
Weapons systems
Flight controls Mission computerStrengthCombat ceiling
Upgrade plan
Requirements control
Stealth PayloadSelf-start
Program management
Crew vehicle interface
Landing gear configuration
Development costs
Mission System Integration / fusion
Wing configuration
Time to FieldSimplicity of design
Sensors
Architecture / Wiring
Affordability
Maturity of systems
Engine configuration Power required
On-board power generation
Electro-magnetic controlsAchieving Achieving Design BalanceDesign Balancein the Age of Asymmetryin the Age of Asymmetry
*
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Design Balance in the Age of Asymmetry
Fielding a revolutionary aircraft on plan is increasingly rare
A balanced, evolutionary approach offers: – Affordability– Currency– Optimal time to service– Long-term relevancy
Capability, not characteristics, is the relevant focus to meet effects based needs across the spectrum of conflict
Asymmetry drives uncertainty – the best counter to uncertainty is flexibility
Finding the correct balance is the challenge
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Design Dynamics
The “half life of technology”– The point at which break-through characteristics that can have a disruptive
effect and provide a dominant capability are effectively countered, emulated, exploited and/or copied; thus devolving to a desirable design characteristic, a necessary but insufficient design element:
– Disruptive, but too few to be dominant – lack of strategic depth – able to be overwhelmed with superior numbers
U.S. Government Photo
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Speed and Maneuverability
F86 & MiG-15 USAF photos
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Maneuverability Versus Speed
F-104 USAF Photo, Mig 21 – Capt. Nasko Koev BuAF
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Speed As A Counter To Maneuverability
Mig 25 – Dimitri A. Mottl, SR-71 USAF Photo
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Asymmetric Speed and Maneuverability
SA2 – Tourbillon, S-300 – USAF Photo
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Speed and Maneuverability
MiG-35 and F-22 Boeing Photo
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Sensors and Weapons
Allocer Allocer
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Survivability
Rob Shenk Photo
US Government Photo
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Survivability
http://planesnsuch.files.wordpress.com/2008/10/f117_6.jpg
www.sepahnews.com/shownews Released by Iranian authorities for public use
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Survivability
Ted Carlson
USAF Photo
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Second Order Effects
The peer “technology at any cost” chase bankrupted the Soviet Union - continuing the “big bang” development approach is crippling the US defense budget…and force structure…– U.S. had four ‘stealth’ aircraft programs before the F-35: The F-117; the A-12; the B-2
and the F-22. Taken together, these represented a requirement for 2,378 aircraft…267 entered service
– F-35 quantities declining due to development cost and schedule risk
Augustine’s 16th Law: – Defense budgets grow linearly but the cost of military aircraft grows exponentially.– Corollary: By 2054, the entire U.S. defense budget will purchase one aircraft. It will be
shared by the Air Force and the Navy 3 1/2 days each week, except in leap years, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day
Development approach remains out of balance with replacement timelines and non-responsive to asymmetric threat emergence
“Flat World” information access eases exploitation
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Design Dynamics
The “half life of technology”– The point at which break-through characteristics that can have a disruptive
effect and provide a dominant capability are effectively countered, emulated, exploited and/or copied; thus devolving to a desirable design characteristic, a necessary but insufficient design element:
– Disruptive, but too few to be dominant – lack of strategic depth – able to be overwhelmed with superior numbers
Boeing Photo
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Achieving Balance in Design
Balance considerations– Investment in breakthrough technologies– Technology half life– Practical application of technology– Inertia of the bureaucratic process– User discipline in need vs nice to have– Durability– Adaptability– Affordability
Correct balance of key features: speed, altitude, agility, range, payload, lethality, survivability; when combined to provide the key capabilities of reach, access, and awareness, can provide a tactical advantage – IF the quality/quantity equation is balanced
Balance is a compromise –an enduring feature of the aircraft
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Evolving Proven Platforms by Necessity
Robust airframe design
Analog to digital
Maintainability / quality growth
Long-term improved O & S
Su-27
Su-30MKI
Su-35
Glass cockpit
IRBIS-E passive ESA radar
IRST w/EO
Digital EW system
Vectored thrust
No speed brake
No canards
PAK 50
Parallel development of the next platform
Maxim Maksimov Photo
Boeing Photo
US Government photo
Oleg Belyakov photo
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Evolving Proven Platforms by Design
Conformal fuel tanks
Advanced engines
Spherical missile/ laser warning
Enclosed wpns pod
Next gen cockpit
Internal IRST
Inserting mature technology to meet the threat
F/A-18E/F/GBlock II
Advanced PVI & computing
AESA radar
MIDS
ATFLIR
AIM-9X
IRST
Network enabled
F/AF/A--18E/F18E/FBlock IBlock I
Long range
Increased survivability & lethality
More weapons
Tanker
Pre-planned growth
Parallel development of the next platform
Future Fighter
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Potential U.S. TACAIR HI-LO Mix EvolutionAir Dominance
F-X
F/A-XXF/A-18E/F Block II+
Current Long Term Future
F-15C
F-22
F-15C+
F-22
F/A-18E/F Block II
F-14D
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F-35B/C
F/A-18E/F Block II
+UAS
+UAS+?
Potential U.S. TACAIR HI-LO Mix EvolutionStrike Fighter
F/A-X
F-35A
F-15E +
Current Long Term Future
F-16A-D & A-10
F/A-18A-D & AV-8
F-15E
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“We have run out of money so now we must think”
“The thinking piece. The tactics, techniques and
procedures, the practice, the interaction of our aviators …
and naval shooters afloat will be ever more important.”
Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, USAF, Vice Chief of Staff, “AirSea Battle for the Future”, 20 July 2011