The Tension between Student Persistence and Institutional Retention: An Examination of the Relationship between First-Semester GPA and Student Progression Rates of First-Time Students (Session 529)
Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D.Director of Institutional Research & Assessment
Central Connecticut State University, New Britain, [email protected]
Association for Institutional Research Annual ForumSeattle, WA
May 26, 2008
This presentation is online at http://www.ccsu.edu/oira/research
Overview
The Relationship Between First-Semester GPA and Graduation and Retention Rates of Full-Time, First-Time Students (And two brief caveats)
The National Picture – Data from CSRDE
Case Study – Central Connecticut State U.
Conclusions and Implications
Major Findings
First-semester grade point average of full-time first-time students is: very predictive of graduation and retention rates this relationship is underreported
Implications Students who perform well stay and graduate,
students who do not perform well tend to depart Corollary: students get out of their education what
they put into it
Caveats
GPA is not just about academic performance, but also encompasses factors such as Preparation Effort Commitment Emotional adjustment Social integration Financial stability Etc.
Institutions should not be let off the hook for improving: Instructional quality Integration of co-
curricular activities Student contact with
faculty and staff Ineffective policies
and procedures
CSRDE Study
Consortium for the Study of Retention Data Exchange (CSRDE) collects institution-reported data about progress and graduation rates of full-time, first-time students
Data for cohort entering in 2000 published in 2007.
Institutions with incomplete data excluded Institutions reporting <3% of entering cohort
earning first semester GPA<2.0 excluded
CSRDE Institutions Included in Study Population
ControlInstitutional Type Private (N) Public (N) Total (N) % of Total
Baccalaureate 15 20 35 11%
Master's 45 105 150 48%
Doctoral 11 112 123 39%
Other 4 3 7 2%
Total 75 240 315
Percent of Total 24% 76%
Institutional Success Rates by First Semester GPA
3% to 10%(N=56)
11% to 20%(N=155)
21% to 30%(N=82)
31% and higher(N=22)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
82% 76% 72% 65%65%53% 45%
33%
One-Year Retention Rate (Mean) Six-Year Graduation Rate (Mean)
Proportion of Cohort Earning 1st Sem. GPA < 2.0
Me
an
Pc
t R
eta
ine
d o
r G
rad
ua
ted
Error bars represent +/- one standard deviationSource: 2006-07 CSRDE Retention Report
Scatterplot of Institutions and Retention Rates
N = 315 institutions, DF= 2, SSE = 1.76, SE = 0.075, p < 0.001; Excludes institutions reporting less than 3% of the full-time, first-time cohort earned a first semester GPA below 2.0, on the basis that these institutions are not representative of most post-secondary institutions. Data source (CSRDE, 2007)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
First Semester GPA Below 2.0
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
RetnRateControl
PrivatePublic
ControlPrivatePublic
RetnRate = 0.858 - 0.575*Below2.0R2 = 0.255
Scatterplot of Institutions and Graduation Rates
N = 315 institutions, DF= 2, SSE = 5.16, SE = 0.128763, p < 0.001. Excludes institutions reporting less than 3% of the full-time, first-time cohort earned a first semester GPA below 2.0, on the basis that these institutions are not representative of most post-secondary institutions. Data source (CSRDE, 2007)
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
First Semester GPA Below 2.0
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
GradRate
ControlPrivatePublic
ControlPrivatePublic
GradRate = 0.719 -1.14*Below2.0R2= 0.315
Univariate Regression Models
*** Significant at p<0.001
Institutional One-Year Retention Rate(Adj. R2=0.255) β S.E. t Sig.Constant 0.858 0.011 80.04 ***
Percent of cohort with first semester GPA < 2.0 -0.576 0.055 -10.41 ***
Institutional Six-Year Graduation Rate(Adj. R2=0.315) β S.E. t Sig.Constant 0.719 0.018 39.22 ***
Percent of cohort with first semester GPA < 2.0 -1.141 0.095 -12.05 ***
Multivariate Regression Models
institutional control was not significant for graduation rates in a stepwise regression* Significant at p<0.05; *** Significant at p<0.001
Institutional One-Year Retention Rate (Adj. R2=0.367) β S.E. t Sig.Constant 0.872 0.012 73.29 ***Percent of cohort with first semester GPA < 2.0 -0.576 0.055 -10.41 ***Baccalaureate institution -0.073 0.014 -5.36 ***Master’s institution -0.044 0.009 -5.10 ***Public control 0.022 0.010 2.17 *
Institutional Six-Year Graduation Rate (Adj. R2=0.380) β S.E. t Sig.Constant 0.758 0.019 40.65 ***Percent of cohort with first semester GPA < 2.0 -1.085 0.091 -11.97 ***Master’s institution -0.079 0.015 -5.54 ***Baccalaureate institution -0.097 0.023 -4.18 ***
Institutional Profile: Central Connecticut State University Public – part of Connecticut State Univ. System Carnegie 2005 Master’s-Larger Programs New Britain, CT (Hartford MSA) Fall 2007 Enrollment:
12,106 headcount (9,704 undergraduate, 23% residential); 9,288 full-time equivalent enrollment
52% female; 16% minority Full-time, first-time students: 1,469 (56% residential) Full-time, new transfer students: 678
Six-year graduation rates: 44% full-time, first-time students 56% transfer students (full-time upon entry)
Institutional Progress Rates
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0.7230000000000010.771000000000001
0.748000000000001
0.397963184883621
0.491114534636634
79%
69%
78%
80% 79%
46%
40%44%
One-Year Retention Rate and Six-Year Graduation Rate of Full-Time First-Time Students
National Peer Group Median 1-Year Reten-tion Rate
National Peer Group Median 6-Year Grad-uation Rate
Institutional 1-Year Reten-tion Rate
Institutional 6-Year Gradua-tion Rate
Fall of Entry
Six-Year Graduation Rates Disaggregated (Entry F’99-F’01)
Fema
le
Male
Not M
inorit
y
Mino
rity
3.00
-4.0
0
2.00
-2.9
9
Below
2.0
or W
D
Gender Race/Ethnicity First Semester GPA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
48%
35%
43%
31%
63%
48%
9%
Institutional Avg.; 41%
Six-
year
Gra
duat
ion
Rate
Six-Year Graduation Rate by First Semester GPA (Full-Time First-Time Students Entering 1999, 2000, 2001)
1st Semester GPA0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%63%
48%
9%
3.0-4.02.0-2.99Below 2.0
6-ye
ar G
rad
uat
ion
Rat
e
32%
42%
26%
Distribution of 1st Semester
GPAs
One-Year Retention Rates by First Semester Grade Point Average
WD Below 1.0
1.00-1.49
1.50-1.99
2.00-2.49
2.50-2.99
3.00-3.49
3.50-4.00
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
19992000200120022003200420052006
First Semester GPA
Six-Year Graduation Rates by First Semester Grade Point Average
WD Below 1.0
1.00-1.49
1.50-1.99
2.00-2.49
2.50-2.99
3.00-3.49
3.50-4.00
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
199920002001
First Semester GPA
Logistic Regression
Institutional One-Year Retention Rate(Cox & Snell R2=0.178, Nagelkerke R2=0.260)
β S.E.Odds Ratio Sig.
Constant -1.360 0.102
First semester GPA 1.082 0.044 2.952 ***
Prediction accuracy improves from 72% to 81%
Institution’s Six-Year Graduation Rate (Cox & Snell R2=0.187, Nagelkerke R2=0.252)
β S.E.Odds Ratio Sig.
Constant -3.309 0.140
First semester GPA 1.194 0.051 3.301 ***
Prediction accuracy improves from 58% to 67%
*** Significant at p<0.001Variables of HS rank, gender, and race/ethnicity were not observed to be significant (p<0.05) in forward conditional entry.
Implications and Conclusions (1)
Institutions should focus on student success and improved graduation rates will follow
Successful students stay and graduate, unsuccessful students do not
Graduation and retention rates are indicators of student success, not outcomes
Implications and Conclusions (2)
Focus on the first semester FYE, early intervention programs Student GPA over time remains relatively
consistent after controlling for attritionFall 2001 Fall 2002 Fall 2003 Fall 2004
First Semester GPA NSem.
GPA NSem.
GPA NSem.
GPA NSem.
GPANo GPA 33 -- 5 2.14 2 2.63 4 3.04Below 2.0 258 1.12 103 1.82 58 2.11 41 2.532.00-2.49 255 2.26 213 2.33 178 2.45 155 2.672.50-2.99 345 2.73 284 2.59 256 2.65 236 2.823.00-3.49 240 3.21 204 2.89 184 2.99 177 3.113.50-4.00 141 3.71 114 3.33 101 3.34 95 3.45Cohort Total 1272 2.50 923 2.60 779 2.74 708 2.93
Implications and Conclusions (3)
Consider student engagement, especially time spent on academics
10 hours or less 11-20 hours per week
21 hours per week or more
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
45%35%
20%
Hrs per 7-day week FY students report preparing for class (s-tudying, reading, writing, doing homework or lab work, analyz-
ing data, rehearsing, and other academic activities),
Source: NSSE National Results, 2007
Implications and Conclusions (4)
Grade inflation Reassure faculty they are not being asked to
grade differently, but instead to develop ways to prompt students to learn more effectively
Nevertheless, grade inflation is a possibility:
Public 4-year Private nonprofit 4-year All private for-profit0%
10%20%30%40%50%
10.9% 16.7%27.8%11.2%
15.5%
17.5%
Undergraduate Grade Point Averages by Institution Type
A's and B'sMostly A's
Institution Type
Source: NCES (2007), National Postsecondary Student Aid Study 2003-04
Implications and Conclusions (5)
Reframe the national debate: Balance notions of retention (institution’s
responsibility) with persistence (student’s responsibility)
Student success (i.e. program completion) requires a partnership among students, institutions, and policymakers
The Tension between Student Persistence and Institutional Retention: An Examination of the Relationship between First-Semester GPA and Student Progression Rates of First-Time Students (Session 529)
Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D.Director of Institutional Research & Assessment
Central Connecticut State University, New Britain, [email protected]
Association for Institutional Research Annual ForumSeattle, WA
May 26, 2008
This presentation is online at http://www.ccsu.edu/oira/research