Download - Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program: Global Cities Initiative - Seattle

GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVEA J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E

Seattle, WA / April 10, 2014@bruce_katz #globalcities

7.4 millionjobs needed

More Jobs

81 millionpoor or near poor in 2000

More Jobs & Better Jobs

107 millionpoor or near poor in 2011

More Jobs & Better Jobs

HUMAN CAPITALINNOVATION

MANUFACTURING

INFRASTRUCTURE

STEM

ADVANCED ENERGY

EXPORTS

R&DOPPORTUNITY

CONSUMPTION

DEBTCONSUMPTION

DEBTDEBTCONSUMPTION

CONSUMPTION DEBTDEBT

CONSUMPTIONDEBT

Pre-Recession Economy Next Economy

The imperative for global engagement

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1

2 3

Metros are centers of global trade and investment

1 2 31

2

3

1 2 31 2

3 Metros are engaging globally in new ways

METROINNOVATION

The imperative for global engagement

1 2 3

1

2 3

2009

Global GDP

19.9%US

21.0%BIC Countries

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013

2018

Global GDP

28.2%BIC Countries

17.6%US

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013

Global Metro Population

2009

50%

Global Metro Population

2030

60%

Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009


31%

China Africa

49% 39%

India

Urban Share of Total Population2010


China Africa India

+297 million by 2030



40%69% 48%

Urban Share of Total Population2030

Source: Boston Consulting Group, “Winning in Emerging Market Cities,” (2010)Photos: Wikipedia/Jonathan Olsson, Jeet221990, Flickr/United Nations Photos, Francisco Anzota

$30-$40 trilliontotal infrastructure investment required in emerging market cities, 2010 - 2030

Source: Boston Consulting Group, “Winning in Emerging Market Cities,” (2010)Photos: Wikipedia/Jonathan Olsson, Jeet221990, Flickr/United Nations Photos, Francisco Anzota

$13.8 trilliontotal housing investment required in emerging market cities, 2010 - 2030

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, “Urban World: Cities and the Rise of the Consuming Class,” (2012)

$200 billiontotal investment in increasing global port capacity by 2025

5,000$1 billion increase in exports supports

jobs

11%wage premiumin exporting firms

Greater likelihood of health and retirement benefits in export-intense industries

22%wage premiumin foreign-owned firms

14%US productivity growth contributed by foreign-owned firms

5.0%foreign-owned firms employ

US workers

How are we doing on trade and investment?

billionUS manufactured exports 2010

$944

Japan

$680$944

United States GermanyFrance

$409

China

$1477

$1091

Top Manufacturing Exporting Countries2010, Billions

Source: World Trade Organization, 2011

$358

ServiceImports

ServiceExports

$518

US Service TradeBillions, 2010

$160 billiontrade surplus

Source: World Trade Organization, 2011 (Data reflect Commercial Services)

Exports Share of GDP2010

13%

United States

29% 22%

15%

30%

Japan

China Canada India

European Union

15%

Source: Brookings analysis of WTO and EIU data, 2011

France

$1.09

$3.93

United StatesChinaBelgium

$1.01

United Kingdom

$1.32$2.26

Top Foreign Direct Investment Stock2012, Trillions

Source: Brookings analysis of NETS, D&B, Moody’s and BEA data

US Share of Global FDI Flows

24.7%

1998

10.9%

2013

Source: Brookings analysis of NETS, D&B, Moody’s and BEA data

Can we realize the potential of global markets?

Advanced Industries

Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure

Software Computer Systems Design

Telecommunications R&D Consulting Services

Services

Pharmaceuticals AdvancedMachinery

Medical EquipmentMotor Vehicles & Parts

Computer & Electronic Devices

Aerospace

Manufacturing

Advanced Industries

85%advanced industry share of private sector R&D

67%advanced industry share of patents

30%advanced industryshare of engineers

Sources: Brookings analysis of BRDIS, Strumsky-Lobo Patent Database, and OES data

Advanced Industries

Drive Productivity in Other Industries

Stimulate Local Economies

Support LongSupply Chains

Develop Technology that Transforms Lives

Advanced Industries

Advanced Industries


Japan

3.5% 4.4%

France United States

United Kingdom

3.1%

European Union

5.0%3.8%

Germany South Korea

China

5.5%

10.9%

20.7%

Growth of Domestic R&D ExpendituresAverage Annual Growth, 2001-2011

Source: National Science Foundation, SEI 2014

Innovation

Advanced Industries


Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey

Hispanics

19%

African Americans

Non-Hispanic Whites

Asians

25%39%

56%

Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher

United States

36%

Human Capital

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey

Hispanics

19%

African Americans

25%

Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher

Human Capital

Advanced Industries


Infrastructure

Transport Networks are Clogged and Congested

Metros are centers of global trade and investment

1 2 31

2

3

Source: Brookings analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis data

Seattle Metropolitan Area

Source: Brookings, Metropolitan Areas and the Next Economy (2011)

Population

63%

GDP

51%

Washington

Seattle, Portland, Spokane, Olympia, Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Bremerton-Silverdale, Yakima, Bellingham, Mount Vernon-Anacortes,

Wenatchee, Longview and Lewiston Metropolitan Areas

Source: Brookings, Metropolitan Areas and the Next Economy (2011)

Population

92%

GDP

88%

Washington

Service Exports

75%63%

Manufacturing Exports

Population

66%

Top 100 Metro ExportsShare of U.S. Totals

Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012

Top 100 Metro Exports

Chemical Products

68% 76%

Business/Professional

Services

Computer/Electronic Products

78%

Population

66%

Share of U.S. Totals

Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012

Top 100 Metro International Connectivity

Air Cargo

83% 83%

Water Cargo Air Passengers

96%

Population

66%

Share of U.S. Totals

Source: Brookings, Global Gateways (2012) and Metro Freight (2013)

Population

66%

Advanced Industry

Employment

74%

FDI Employment

74%

Employment in Advanced Industries and Foreign-Owned Firms

Top 100 Metro Share of U.S. Totals

Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA, warrior481.blogspot.com

Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA, warrior481.blogspot.com

Seattle, WA - Human Capital & Innovation Dashboard

Education

Top 100Metros

SeattleMetro

Bachelor’s Degree Attainment

31.8%37.0%

STEM Jobs

25.9%Share of Jobs in STEM

4th of Top 100 Metros

38.5%STEM Jobs Not Requiring BA


Patents

3,968Total Patents,

2007-2011

5th of 358 Metros

2.3Patents per 1k Workers

15th of 358 Metros

Top Patenting FirmsMicrosoftBoeing

Invention Science FundIntel

University of Washington

Source: Brookings, State of Metropolitan America (2012), The Hidden STEM Economy (2013) and Patenting Prosperity (2013)

Source: Brookings, ExportNation (2013)

$47.1 b

Top 100Metros

SeattleMetro

Export Intensity

12.7%

20.3%

Export Value

Goods & Services Exports

25.1%goods share of exports

74.9%goods share

of exports

Top Goods SectorsTop Goods SectorsAircraft Products and Parts 57.4%

Petroleum and Coal Products 2.3%

General Purpose Machinery 1.6%

Top Services SectorsTop Services Sectors

IT Royalties 8.3%

Freight and Port Services 1.7%

Air Transportation Services 1.5%

Seattle, WA - Export Dashboard

Source: Forthcoming Brookings research on metropolitan FDI

Foreign Direct InvestmentJobs

65,045FDI Employment


Top Foreign Employers Metro-to-Metro Investment

Wireless TelecommunicationsT-MobileSuncom

TritonPowertel

AerospaceC&D Zodiac

IDD AerospaceJamco

Compass-Aerospace NW

Computer Systems Design

NCSoftAtos IT Solutions

AvandeAreva T&D

Top Investor Metros by JobsTop Investor Metros by JobsTop Investor Metros by Jobs1 Dusseldorf, Germany 13.4%2 Tokyo, Japan 12.7%3 Paris, France 7.8%4 Montreal, Canada 6.1%5 Toronto, Canada 4.6%6 Vancouver, Canada 4.6%7 Sydney, Australia 3.9%8 Oxford, England 3.5%

Seattle, WA - Foreign Investment Dashboard

4.6%FDI Employment

Intensity


Source: Brookings, Global Gateways (2012) and Metro Freight (2013)

$185.3 b

Top 100Metros

SeattleMetro

International Trade Share

15.8%20.8%

Total Goods Trade

Goods Trade Air Travel

International Passengers

13th of Top 90 Metros15th of Top 100 Metros2,748,861

Top Metros of Origin/DestinationTop Metros of Origin/DestinationTop Metros of Origin/Destination1 Seoul-Incheon, South Korea 5.0%2 London, United Kingdom 4.6%3 Tokyo, Japan 3.9%4 Victoria, Canada 3.9%5 Vancouver, Canada 3.8%6 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico 3.2%7 San Jose Del Cabo, Mexico 3.1%8 Beijing, China 2.6%

Top Global Country/Region Trading Partners



1 China 5.6%2 Japan 2.4%3 Canada 2.2%4 Mexico 1.7%5 Other South-Eastern Asia 1.2%6 Other Western Asia 1.0%7 South Korea 0.9%8 Other Northern Europe 0.7%

Seattle, WA - Freight & Air Dashboard

1 2 31 2

3 Metros are engaging globally in new ways

METROINNOVATION

Catalyze Trade & Investment

Legacy of Global Orientation

Seattle as a Globally Competitive Region

Market AssessmentTarget Sectors

8% 9%12%

Economic Profile15%

12%

13%

9%

Establish Goals & Strategies

Boost SME exportsIncrease global fluency

Double exports Support key sectors

Government

Philanthropy

Firms

Universities

Collaborate to Compete

Global Cities Exchange

BrandingGlobal Cities Exchange

PORTLANDWEBUILD

GREENCITIES

I amsterdam


Invest in What Matters

CHICAGO$70 million

Digital Manufacturing & Design Innovation Institute

Lightweight & Modern Metals Manufacturing Innovation Institute

DETROIT$70 million

National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute

YOUNGSTOWN$30 million


National Network for Manufacturing Innovation

Next Generation Power Electronics Manufacturing Innovation Institute

RALEIGH$70 million



PORTMIAMIExpansion and improvements

PORTMIAMIInnovation Human Capital Infrastructure

Deep Dredge Project $220 million project, funded solely through state & local resources

Port of Miami TunnelInnovative public-private partnership

Intermodal Rail Reconstruction Project Financed with competitively-awarded federal funds to a partnership of the port, county & railway


Invest in What Matters Network Globally

Chicago

Mexico City

Chicago

Mexico City2nd largestMexican immigrant population resides in Chicago metro area

130Chicago-based firms with operations in Mexico City

$1.7 billiontotal bilateral trade of locally produced products

290,000tourists and business travelers between Chicago and Mexico City per year

GLOBAL CITIES ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP

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GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVEA J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E

Seattle, WA / April 10, 2014@bruce_katz #globalcities