Ross A Pamphilon Multi Asset Class Credit (MACC)
Montreux 22-24 May 2013
2
Wells Fargo Asset Management Group
Wells Fargo & Company
Wells Fargo Asset Management (WFAM)
$452 billion
ECM is one of more than 30 distinct investment advisors in WFAM.
Source: Wells Capital Management, as at 31st December 2012
• Strong parental oversight
• ECM manage money on behalf of Wells Fargo • 100% owned and consolidated
3 3
ECM
• ECM is fully owned by Wells Fargo and operates as an autonomous boutique
• ECM has a pure focus on fixed income with a speciality in credit
– Founded in 1999
– Extensive experience managing through numerous credit cycles including 2001-2002, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2011-2012 European periphery challenges.
• Experienced investment team of 40 professionals
• High degree of transparency to investors, independent pricing and risk
management
• ECM is rated High Standards with a stable outlook by Fitch under its Asset Manager ratings (March 2013)
$9 40
billion under management
investment professionals
4
What is Multi Asset Class Credit (MACC)?
• Flexibility to allocate across the entire cash and derivative credit spectrum
• Unconstrained approach to investing without being anchored to a benchmark index
• Interest rate hedging with our preference for duration hedged being the starting point allowing the manager to capture “intended” credit market beta
• Currency hedged in order to capture the excess return from credit management without the noise from currency markets distorting returns
5
What is Multi Asset Class Credit (MACC)?
Active allocation
Unconstrained approach to
investing
Interest rate hedging
Multi asset class credit strategy Senior Secured
Loans
Government Bonds
Asset Backed
Bank Capital
Corporate Bonds
European Emerging Markets
High Yield
Harness full investment
process
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Dec 1996 Dec 2001 Dec 2006 Dec 2011
Traditional Fixed Income
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec 1996 Dec 2001 Dec 2006 Dec 2011
Global Corporate Index
Duration Market Weight
Non-Financials
Financials
Constrained by…
Tracking Error
Benchmark Duration
Rating
7
How…
…you can generate returns in fixed income credit even if rates go up
…you can benefit from the expertise of a large and dedicated investment team
…your fixed income investment can work harder in a low yield environment
8
How do BBB spreads react to changes in interest rates?
9
36 Month rolling correlation between 10-year yield and changes in BBB spreads
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Dec 1980 Dec 1985 Dec 1990 Dec 1995 Dec 2000 Dec 2005 Dec 2010
30 year bull market for rates
US 10yr treasury yield to maturity (%)
How to protect returns in a rising rate environment
Non-Rate Sensitive Investments
Duration Hedged Strategies
Source: Bloomberg
11
Why is active allocation important?
Source: ML Lynch Data (ER00, HEAD, EBSU) 31/12/2012, Credit Suisse Loan (Credit Suisse Western Europe) and Barclays ABS (ABS Bond Index ex AAA ) 31/12/2012. Merrill Lynch returns are excess returns over swaps (no duration,) Floating rate Loans and ABS are total returns excluding Euribor.
Because one credit asset class can’t deliver great returns all of the time
KEY > > > > Best performing
Worst performing
Credit Asset Class 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Investment Grade Corporates -0.65% 2.32% 1.31% 0.19% 0.48% -2.14% -13.92% 10.38% 0.67% -4.18% 7.13%
High Yield -15.33% 22.45% 9.39% 3.61% 8.12% -4.55% -42.91% 61.59% 10.34% -7.10% 18.02%
Sub Financials -0.52% 3.42% 2.03% 0.72% 0.85% -4.21% -28.74% 19.16% 1.35% -14.53% 23.78%
ABS n/a n/a 0.29% 0.57% 0.58% -7.41% -46.78% 8.73% 21.58% -5.27% 16.31%
Loans -5.32% 9.74% 4.69% 3.28% 3.07% -3.20% -34.76% 46.25% 7.96% -1.83% 10.03%
Why is MACC important?
12
ECM economic view – Low economic growth with political risk
• Systemic tail risks have been contained as a result of the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (“OMT”) programme
• Eurozone expected to remain in recession until Q3/Q4 2013, leading to a modest contraction in GDP of -0.5% this year, before growth picks up to +1% in 2014. Growth in the US is more resilient with GDP growth expected to be in the +2% range in 2013 before rising to around +2.5% in 2014
3
2
1
0
-1
%
DEU GBR USA EURO 2012 2013 2014
Source: OECD Economic Outlook No.92 (database) OECD economic surveys: France 2013
13
European Systemic Risk
• The OMT programme has successfully backstopped markets
• Market reaction to events in Italy/Cyprus has been muted • Spanish/ Italian yields continue to stabilise • Imbalances in the TARGET2 cross border system are starting to reverse • Periphery countries moving to current account surpluses
• Cyprus policy response was ad hoc but markets are relaxed about implications
• Bank creditor/depositor burden sharing is moving up the political agenda
• Tail risks are contained in Europe and the focus is shifting to the growth outlook
• Modest economic growth combined with low interest rates provides a favourable near term environment for credit
14
ECM Investment Strategy – analysing the credit cycle
• Different sectors of the economy are in very divergent stages in their respective credit cycle
1. Corporates – Early signs of re-leveraging have resurfaced due to increasing pressure on management to reward shareholders. Idiosyncratic risk increasing
2. Financials – Four years into a multi-year re-regulating and de-leveraging cycle. Both supply and demand for bank credit from remains under pressure
3. Governments – Remain fiscally vulnerable. US creating more growth than Europe but is yet to start process of fiscal consolidation
4. Households – Continue to consolidate and slowly rebuild balance sheets
15
25
75
125
175
225
275
325
1.2x
1.4x
1.6x
1.8x
2.0x
2.2x
2.4x
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
IG spreadLeverage
Fig 1 Source: Bloomberg 30th March 2013 Fig 2 Source: MS European Loans and Deposits Tracker 4th March 2013
Different sectors of the economy in different stages in the deleveraging cycle
1.Non-Financial Corporates A safe haven but single name dispersion risk is rising and deleveraging is over
2. Financials Capital increasing, liquidity improving
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010 2011 H1'12
%
US banks (common equity)
European banks (Core Tier 1)
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
2008 2009 2010 2011 H1'12
European Bank loans/deposits ratio
16
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Germany France Italy SpainIreland Portugal Greece Euro 17US UK
Household* Debt to GDP 2012
Deb
t sec
uriti
es a
nd lo
ans
as a
% o
f
Different sectors of the economy in different stages in the deleveraging cycle (cont.)
3. Governments At very different stages of the deleveraging cycle
4. Households Continue to pay down debt
Fig 3 Source: DB, CITI Fig 4 Source: World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2012
17
Default rates - ECM expects only a modest increase in still historically low defaults
Source: Moody’s Speculative Grade Monthly Default Report 28th February 2013
• Global trailing speculative default rate currently at 2.7%
• Default rates will stay well below the long-term average this year
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14
US_Actual US_Baseline_Forecast Europe_Actual Europe_Baseline_Forecast
LTM Spec Grade Default Rate (%) Defaults 2013 2012 Spec Grade Default Rate (%) Defaults 2012 U.S. 3.28% 6 3.28% 43 Europe 2.05% 4 1.80% 9 Global 2.70% 11 2.65% 58
18
Credit asset class views
• Investment Grade Corporates: Expected to remain a relative safe haven but fairly valued, watch event risk with increased credit dispersion
• Constructive on selective subordinated and senior financials
• Positive on selective “money good” ABS portfolio exposures
• Sub Investment Grade: Opportunistic. Favour Senior Secured Loans and better quality High Yield
• ECM managed funds increased risk profiles in H2 2012 but pared risk in March 2013 in order to enhance financial flexibility
Asset class Selectively reduce
Hold Selectively add
Investment Grade Corporates
Financials
High Yield
Senior Secured Loans
Asset-Backed Securities
19
ECM Investment Process
Model Portfolio
Live Portfolios
PEER REVIEW
INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP
Macro Views
Fundamental Credit Research
SECTOR REVIEW
Economic Cycle Credit Cycle
Security Selection Relative Value
Sector Analysis
Mandate Guidelines
Portfolio Manager
Calibration
Liquidity Quantitative Analytics
Market Technicals
20
Active allocation in action
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Dec 2008 Jun 2009 Dec 2009 Jun 2010 Dec 2010 Jun 2011 Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012
Asset Backed
Bank Capital
Non-Financial Corporate Bonds
Financial Corporate Bonds
Emerging Markets
High Yield
Senior Secured Loans
Source: ECM. Data as at 28th March 2013
21
Fund Characteristics & Reference Strategy Profile
22
ECM Dynamic Credit Fund – Summary
• ECM Dynamic Credit is a Total Return fund investing in Multi Asset Class Credit
• ECM Dynamic Credit is UCITS compliant with daily liquidity
• ECM Dynamic Credit expects to add value in all types of market
environment.
• ECM aims to maximize return in a risk controlled framework – Objective over the cycle: Outperform BofA ML Euro Corporate index (ER00) (Hedged*)
€5.1bn
in total return credit strategies
*Hedged using futures
23
ECM Dynamic Credit Fund- Key characteristics
Risk Managed Hedged
Interest rate *
Currency
Credit
Default
Liquidity
Counterparty
Country
Political
Inflation
• The fund diversifies by allocating across different credit asset-classes – with risks tightly monitored from a volatility and VaR perspective
• Asset allocation is dynamically governed by macro-economics, market technicals and the credit cycle
• Focus is on European corporate credit with a flexibility to invest across global credit markets
• Exploit relative value opportunities through security selection and sector rotation driven by a conservative and disciplined fundamentally driven research process
• Interest rate duration is actively managed as a further lever to generate returns and hedge credit returns. Currency risk is hedged
• Full transparency across asset allocation, security selection and risk process
* Duration is used strategically as a credit hedge
24
ECM Dynamic Credit Fund profile
Characteristics Risk Profile
• Outperform BofA ML Euro Corporate index (ER00 Hedged) over the cycle
• Investment universe includes:
• Asset Backed Securities • Bank Capital • Investment Grade Corporates • High Yield • EMEA Emerging Markets
• Minimum Bond Fund Fitch score: BBB-
• Obligor limit:
– 5% of NAV in any one Investment Grade issuer – 3% of NAV in any one Non-Investment Grade issuer
• Duration & currency hedged*
Total Return Since Inception (bps) 257
Ex Ante Volatility (bps) 284
Sharpe Ratio 1.41
Volatility Ratio to BofA ML Euro Corporate index (ER00) 0.93
Factor Beta against BofA ML Euro Corporate index (ER00) 0.85
99% Var 7.00%
5 Standard Deviation Drawdown 14.20%
Credit Spread (bps) 173
Credit Duration (yrs) 3.36
Yield To Worst (%) 2.38
Source: ECM. Fund Snapshots. Data as at 30th April 2013
Performance since inception: 14th December 2012
*Duration is used strategically as a credit hedge
25
Asset class and GIIPS allocation shifts
Source: ECM. Fund Snapshots. Data as at 28th March 2013
Allocation % of DENAV UCD UCD UCD UCD UCD UCD UCD UCD UCD DCF DCF
Asset Class 30 Dec 2011
30 Mar 2012 Q1 Shift 29 Jun
2012 Q2 Shift 28 Sep 2012 Q3 Shift 31 Dec
2012 Q4 Shift 28 Mar 2013 Q1 Shift
Asset Backed 11.5% 9.5% -2.0% 7.1% -2.4% 7.0% -0.2% 6.9% -0.1% 7.7% 0.8% Bank Capital 12.4% 8.2% -4.2% 5.6% -2.6% 6.1% 0.5% 6.3% 0.2% 6.6% 0.3% Non-Financial Corporate Bonds 46.7% 48.8% 2.0% 50.9% 2.2% 58.3% 7.4% 48.1% -10.2% 42.6% -5.6% Financial Coporate Bonds 18.9% 16.7% -2.2% 11.3% -5.4% 16.3% 5.0% 24.8% 8.5% 25.7% 1.0% Emerging Markets 3.6% 2.7% -1.0% 2.8% 0.1% 3.1% 0.3% 6.8% 3.7% 7.3% 0.5% High Yield 5.6% 0.7% -4.9% -0.2% -0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 3.9% 2.6% 5.3% 1.4% Sovereign 0.0% -0.5% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Senior Secured Loans 4.6% 3.5% -1.1% 3.6% 0.1% 3.0% -0.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.0% Grand Total 103.3% 89.6% -13.7% 81.2% -8.3% 95.1% 13.8% 99.9% 4.8% 95.3% -4.6%
Country Risk 30 Dec 2011
30 Mar 2012 Q1 Shift 29 Jun
2012 Q2 Shift 28 Sep 2012 Q3 Shift 31 Dec
2012 Q4 Shift 28 Mar 2013 Q1 Shift
Greece - - - - - - - - - - -
Ireland 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% 0.5% 0.5% - -0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% -0.3%
Italy 3.5% 2.6% -0.9% 2.5% -0.1% 4.2% 1.7% 5.0% 0.8% 5.6% 0.6%
Portugal 0.8% 0.8% -0.0% 0.4% -0.4% - -0.4% - - - -
Spain 5.5% 4.3% -1.2% 2.6% -1.7% 2.4% -0.2% 3.1% 0.7% 3.2% 0.1%
Grand Total 10.3% 7.7% -2.6% 6.0% -1.7% 6.6% 0.6% 8.6% 2.0% 9.0% 0.4%
ECM Dynamic Credit Fund was launched on 14th December 2012, prior to this Universal Credit S.A. –Compartment D (“UC-D”) was used as the reference strategy
26
MACC track record
Total Return MACC Absolute Return MACC Annualised Since Strategy Inception
31st December 2011 – 31st January 2013
Return Volatility Correlation
Absolute Return Credit Strategy Relative European Value S.A. 10.3% 2.5% 1.00
EURO CORPORATE CREDIT 7.4% 1.9% 0.57
EURO HIGH YIELD 18.7% 5.3% 0.38
S&P 500 23.6% 9.8% 0.19
EURO STOXX 50 16.6% 16.8% 0.00
GERMAN BUND 2.5% 2.8% 0.05
GSCI INDEX 5.1% 13.2% 0.14
Annualised Since Strategy Inception 12th December 2008 – 31st December 2012
36 months Annualised
Since Inception 12th December 2008
Annualised
Total Return Credit Strategy Universal Credit D 4.58% 10.08%
ER00 (hedged*) BofA ML Euro Corporate index 1.08% 3.30%
Relative performance 3.50% 6.78%
Launched 14th December 2012
April YTD Since Inception
ECM Dynamic Credit Fund 1.20% 2.01% 2.57% ER00 (hedged**) BofA ML Euro Corporate index 0.79% 1.17% 1.56%
Relative performance 0.41% 0.84% 1.01%
Launched 20th February 2013
April YTD Since Inception
ECM Absolute Return Credit Fund 0.49% 0.58% 0.58%
Euribor 0.01% 0.04% 0.02%
Relative performance 0.48% 0.54% 0.56%
Source ECM as at 30th April 2013 *Hedged using swaps **Hedged using futures
27
How…
…you can generate returns in fixed income credit even if rates go up
…you can benefit from the expertise of a large and dedicated investment team
…your fixed income investment can work harder in a low yield environment
With MACC…
With MACC…
With MACC…
28
Appendix
29
Strategy Fund
Total Return Multi Asset Class Credit
ECM Dynamic Credit Fund ECM Short Duration Credit Fund*
Absolute Return Multi Asset Class Credit
ECM Absolute Return Credit Fund
Total Return Single Asset Class Credit
ECM Senior Secured Fund ECM Financials Fund ECM Loans
Hedge Fund
ECM Special Situations Fund
ECM product offering by strategy
* European Diversified Credit 1-5yr Fund
30
Ross Pamphilon, 23 (14) Co-Chief Investment Officer
Stephen Zinser, 34 (14) Chief Executive Officer / Co-Chief Investment Officer
Investment Strategy
Rates & Treasury Management
Portfolio Management & Credit Research
Portfolio Management Alternative Investments
Stephen Zinser, 34 (14) CEO/CO-CIO Ross Pamphilon, 23 (14) Co-Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager Frances Hutchinson, CFA 28 (9) Head of Corporate Strategy & Business Development Alastair Thomas, 24 (11) Head of Rates & Treasury Mgt. Matthew Craston, 32 (9) Head of Alternative Investments Duncan-Warwick Champion, 22 (2) Head of Corporate Research Sahil Khan, 5 (2) Senior Quantitative Analyst
Alastair Thomas, 24 (11) Head of Rates and Treasury Mgt. David Jones, 18 (5) Sr. Rates Manager Adam Hicks, 3 (6) Treasury Manager Christopher Burrows, 2 (2) Jr. Rates Manager Lauren Johnson, 3 (3) Jr. Treasury Manager
Derek Hynes, 15 (8) Lead Portfolio Manager Henrietta Pacquement, CFA 12 (7) Lead Portfolio Manager Jens Vanbrabant, CFA 14 (6) Lead Portfolio Manager Andre Mazzella, CFA 17 (3) Lead Portfolio Manager, High Yield Alex Temple, 12 (7) Portfolio Manager
Quantitative Analytics Team Sahil Khan, 5 (2) Senior Quantitative Analyst Suzie-Lea Coltham, 2 (2) Quantitative Analyst Dr Paul Keddie, 17 (7) Senior Developer Andy Quinn , 14 (7) Developer
ABS Andrew Lennox, 13 (9) Lead Portfolio Manager, ABS Jonathan Wyles, CFA 11 (5) Asset Class Specialist Portfolio Manager, ABS Maddi Rowlatt, 11 (4) / Anant Ramgarhia ,13 (2) Asset Class Specialist, ABS
Corporates (IG / HY / EM) Duncan Warwick-Champion, 22 (2) Head of Corporate Research Michie Yana, CFA 23 (9) Sr. Investment Analyst Henry Craik-White, 10 (2) Sr. Investment Analyst, High Yield George Flynn, CFA 11 (11) Investment Analyst, Corporates Sam Barker, CFA 4 (5) Investment Analyst Rhys Foulkes, CFA 6 (2) Investment Analyst Lauren Millspaugh, 4 (4) Jr. Investment Analyst Adam Gibson, 3 (6) Credit Trader Valerie Keller-Crochet, 5 (1) Specialist Portfolio Manager Paul Davey, CFA 0 (0) Investment Analyst Financials / Sovereigns Satish Pulle, 17 (3) Lead Portfolio Manager, Financials Robert Montague, 20 (2) Sr. Investment Analyst, Financials Andy Li, 8 (5) Specialist Portfolio Manager, Financials
Matthew Craston, 32 (9) Head of Alternative Investments
Loans Torben Ronberg, 26 (8) Head of Loans Alex Woolrich, 12 (7) Portfolio Manager Sam McGairl, 11 (6) Portfolio Manager Stuart Fuller, 12 (11) Portfolio Manager Sally Tankard, 23 (2) Sr. Investment Analyst , Loans
Special Situations Sohail Malik, 13 (3) Sr. Portfolio Manager Amit Staub, 8 (4) Portfolio Manager
Investment Team
Number following name = Years in Investment Number in brackets = Years at ECM Figures rounded to nearest full year CFA = Chartered Financial Analyst ^ = Maternity cover As at March 2013
31
Investor breakdown
AUM by Investor Type
Investor Type No. of Clients AUM in USD (mm) AUM as %
Banks 41 3,565 40%
Insurance 49 2,414 27%
Pension Funds 30 1,585 18%
Asset Managers 16 421 5% Corporates 1 178 2% Other UCITS n/a 755 8% Grand Total 137 8,918 100%
AUM by Geography Geography No. of Clients AUM in USD (mm) AUM as %
Continental Europe 106 4,053 45%
UK & Ireland 11 958 11%
Americas 12 2,939 33%
Asia 8 213 2%
Other UCITS n/a 755 8%
Grand Total 137 8,918 100%
All figures provided as a March month end valuation Other UCITS denotes ECF II Investors
Banks 40%
Insurance 27%
Pension Funds 18%
Asset Managers 5%
Corporates 2%
Other UCITS 8%
Continental Europe 45%
UK & Ireland 11%
Americas 33%
Asia 2%
Other UCITS 8%
32
UCD Total return performance vs. market since inception to 31/12/12
Periodic Total Returns (floating rate) 36 months Since Inception (48 Months)
3 month 12 month Annualised Annualised UCD € 2.29% 9.73% 4.58% 10.08% ER00 (hedged) BofA ML Euro Corporate index 1.81% 7.13% 1.08% 3.30%
Outperformance/(Underperformance) 0.48% 2.60% 3.50% 6.78% Source: ECM, BofA ML, 31st December 2012 Bank of America European Corporate index (ER00) used for performance
Total return, based at 100 at inception
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Nov 08 May 09 Nov 09 May 10 Nov 10 May 11 Nov 11 May 12 Nov 12
Reference Index
MACC
33
Portfolio Construction Investments - Current and Future
Current opportunities
• Strong countries / strong balance sheets e.g. Rabobank, HSBC, Standard Chartered, ING, Lloyds, Danske • Global banks (US, UK domiciled), Selected EU Banks:
– Covered bonds, senior, selected Tier II – Selected bank Tier 1, CoCo
• Selected peripheral senior, covered bonds e.g. Caixabank, Banco Espirito Santo, Bankinter, Intesa, Unicredit • Selected insurers – Senior, Tier 2, Tier 1 e.g. Ageas, Delta Lloyd, Aviva, Mapfre, Zurich • Asian financial institutions Tier 2, Tier 1 e.g. Sumitomo Mitsui, Nippon Life • Selected shorts in the periphery
Further medium term opportunities (next 12-24 months)
• As peripheral crisis subsides, we expect to find further value in the periphery in: – Covered, Senior, LT2, selected Tier 1, Subordinated Insurance e.g. Intesa, Unicredit, BBVA, Santander,
Caixabank, Bankinter, Banco Popolare • Asian financial institutions senior, Tier 2: HDFC, SBI, ICICI • Selected shorts
Longer term opportunties
• Peripheral and Asian bank and insurer Tier 2, Tier1, coco’s
Source: ECM. 28th September 2012
34
ECM Asset Management Limited 34 Grosvenor Street, London W1K 4QU T +44 (0) 20 7529 7400 F +44 (0) 20 7529 7411 www.ecm.com
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