Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key findings 2009
in partnership with the
Robert Manchin Gallup Europe
Academia Europa Nova
Quality of
governance –>
trust corruption
in the Balkans –
breaking the
cycle?
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
• Detailed, annual nationally-
representative surveys
• Last one in October 2009, 2010
wave is in the field
• Covering regions and territories
• Detailed results and data
accessible with data visualization
tools at
www.balkan-monitor.eu
Assessing changes, measuring policy impacts in context:
The Gallup Balkan Monitor
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.
Corruption is not only costly, but paralyses a nation’s institutions…
3
New data and analysis goes well beyond that:
• ONLY perceived integrity of a government is a reliable
predictor of citizens’ psychological wellbeing (N=132
countries, Gallup World Poll) if controlled for other
variables
• This also explains regional differences – functioning
public administration – after achieving nation-state can
deliver perceived QoL
• Citizens that trust their governments feel much less
affected by the crisis, regardless of actual material
situation
• Equity / feeling of fair deals / sharing the benefits – vs.
being left behind
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.
Corruption is not a rare phenomenon
4
... BUT
• magnitude and impact on the daily life of the
citizens makes the difference
• professionalizing touch points
• transforming PA into a service culture
forcing justice system changes
cleaning up education, etc.
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
Corruption weighs heavy on Balkan minds
70
37
30
15
14
12
8
7
7
7
Unemployment
Standard of living
Corruption
Global economic crisis
Economy
Crime
Politicians lacking integrity
Electricity
Education
Public health
What are the most
important problems
facing [COUNTRY]
today?
Base: respondents in all Western Balkan
countries, open-ended question with
multiple responses, 2009 survey
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
More important then actual living standards in Croatia, Albania and Kosovo
54
88
58
82
69 68 70
26
42
32
47 55
42
17
38
21
39
20
32 29 36
Albania BiH Croatia Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Kosovo
Unemployment Standard of living Corruption
What are the most
important problems
facing [COUNTRY]
today? (2009)
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 8
Is corruption widespread throughout
the government in (Country), or not?
74 81
77 71
84
73
49
87 84 89
83
69
50
73
Croatia Serbia BiH Kosovo Macedonia Montenegro Albania
% yes 2006 %yes 2009
Results of actions and programs? Or real change?
Perception: government corruption is growing
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
Perception levels in the wider region are similar (Romania) or even higher (Greece)
76
Is corruption
widespread
throughout the
government in
(Country), or not?
87
91
79
% yes, Source: Gallup World Poll 2009
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 10
Is corruption widespread within
businesses in [COUNTRY], or not?
86 86 83 82
72 68 66
92 91 90 82 79
69 67
Croatia Serbia BiH Kosovo Macedonia Montenegro Albania
% yes 2006 %yes 2009
Business corruption is seen in a similar light
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
Again: Business corruption perception levels in the wider region are similar or even higher
% yes, Source: Gallup World Poll 2009
82
82
84
78
Is corruption
widespread within
businesses in
[COUNTRY], or not?
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 12
25 20 15 11 8 7 6
42 42
44 48 37 35
28
26 29 23 28 49 52 55
Macedonia Albania Montenegro Kosovo Serbia Croatia Bosnia andHerzegovina
Level is lower Level is about the same Level is higher DK/NA
In BiH, Croatia and Serbia most people see corruption on the rise compared to recent past
Do you think the level of corruption in this
country is lower, about the same, or higher than
it was 5 years ago? (2009)
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 13
78
86
17
25
Hi-jacked states? Almost everyone feels affected by organised crime in Pristina & BiH Federation
Does the organised
crime in [COUNTRY]
affect you personally?
% ‘yes it affects me occasionally’ and ‘yes, it affects me in daily life’
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 14
Rates of reported incidents of petty corruption not so different from life in neighbouring countries
52
36
20 20 19 18 15 14 13 8 8 8
% yes
Sometimes people have to give a bribe or a
present in order to solve their problems. In
the last 12 months, were you,
personally, faced with this kind of
situation, or not?
Source: Gallup World Poll, Balkan Monitor 2009
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 15
Sometimes people have
to give a bribe or a
present in order to
solve their problems. In
the last 12 months,
were you, personally,
faced with this kind of
situation, or not ?
% yes
59
5
29
35
Rates of reported incidents of petty corruption vary strongly: 5% in Slavonia, 59% in Southern Albania
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 16
Albanian civil servants perceived as most likely to be demanding bribes
During the past one year, has any government official or a
civil servant, for instance a customs officer, police officer or
inspector in [COUNTRY], asked you or expected you to pay a
bribe for his service?
41
8 6 7 8 12
Albania BIH Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Kosovo
Yes
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
Acceptance of petty corruption on the rise?
39 45 43 52
28
52 47 50 53 43 44 42
24 39
32 37
08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09
WB Total Serbia Albania BIH Montenegro Croatia Macedonia Kosovo
In order to get better care in a
hospital is it acceptable to use
relations (friends', relatives'
help)?
% yes
Or has the absence of healthcare reform led to a convenient business model?
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
Trust in the legal system is practically non-existent: Improvement in Croatia, with smaller changes elsewhere
In [COUNTRY], do you have
confidence in courts and the
judiciary?
5 4 5 4 12 8 12 10 13
5
19 17 21 21
41 33
20 30
27 36 29 36 40
37
41 51
31 40
20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009
Serbia Croatia Macedonia Albania BIH Montenegro Kosovo
A lot Some
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 19
Trust in government remains low…
In [COUNTRY], do you have
confidence in the national
government?
5 4
28 27 22 12 9 13
22 16
3 4 5 6
42 31
35 44
32 43
29
38 33 41
25 25 23 19
2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009
Serbia Montenegro Macedonia Albania Kosovo BIH Croatia
A lot Some
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 20
Confidence in the EU is not much higher in most Western Balkan countries…
In [COUNTRY], do you have
confidence in the EU
institutions?
6 6 18
27 21 18 31 36
43 48
7 9 4 6
35 34
38
41
36 40
40 39 28
29
33 38
32 35
20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009
Serbia Montenegro Macedonia Albania Kosovo BIH Croatia
A lot Some
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 21
…but there’s hope that change might come from EU integration
What do you think that EU
accession would bring to
[COUNTRY] - Less corruption?
45 51 65 68 71 77 84
Croatia Serbia Bosnia andHerzegovina
Montenegro Macedonia Albania Kosovo
% yes
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 22
What people really trust in… GO Serbia GO!
Compared to other countries in
Europe, is a talent for sports a
strength or a weakness of
[COUNTRY]? (2009)
69
93
88
75
75
58
49
46
WB Total
Serbia
Croatia
Montenegro
BIH
Macedonia
Kosovo
Albania
% strength
Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 23
Questions?
www.balkan-monitor.eu