Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.

Key findings 2009

in partnership with the

Robert Manchin Gallup Europe

Academia Europa Nova

Quality of

governance –>

trust corruption

in the Balkans –

breaking the

cycle?

Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

• Detailed, annual nationally-

representative surveys

• Last one in October 2009, 2010

wave is in the field

• Covering regions and territories

• Detailed results and data

accessible with data visualization

tools at

www.balkan-monitor.eu

Assessing changes, measuring policy impacts in context:

The Gallup Balkan Monitor

Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.

Corruption is not only costly, but paralyses a nation’s institutions…

3

New data and analysis goes well beyond that:

• ONLY perceived integrity of a government is a reliable

predictor of citizens’ psychological wellbeing (N=132

countries, Gallup World Poll) if controlled for other

variables

• This also explains regional differences – functioning

public administration – after achieving nation-state can

deliver perceived QoL

• Citizens that trust their governments feel much less

affected by the crisis, regardless of actual material

situation

• Equity / feeling of fair deals / sharing the benefits – vs.

being left behind

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Corruption is not a rare phenomenon

4

... BUT

• magnitude and impact on the daily life of the

citizens makes the difference

• professionalizing touch points

• transforming PA into a service culture

forcing justice system changes

cleaning up education, etc.

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Corruption weighs heavy on Balkan minds

70

37

30

15

14

12

8

7

7

7

Unemployment

Standard of living

Corruption

Global economic crisis

Economy

Crime

Politicians lacking integrity

Electricity

Education

Public health

What are the most

important problems

facing [COUNTRY]

today?

Base: respondents in all Western Balkan

countries, open-ended question with

multiple responses, 2009 survey

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More important then actual living standards in Croatia, Albania and Kosovo

54

88

58

82

69 68 70

26

42

32

47 55

42

17

38

21

39

20

32 29 36

Albania BiH Croatia Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Kosovo

Unemployment Standard of living Corruption

What are the most

important problems

facing [COUNTRY]

today? (2009)

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Is corruption widespread throughout

the government in (Country), or not?

74 81

77 71

84

73

49

87 84 89

83

69

50

73

Croatia Serbia BiH Kosovo Macedonia Montenegro Albania

% yes 2006 %yes 2009

Results of actions and programs? Or real change?

Perception: government corruption is growing

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Perception levels in the wider region are similar (Romania) or even higher (Greece)

76

Is corruption

widespread

throughout the

government in

(Country), or not?

87

91

79

% yes, Source: Gallup World Poll 2009

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Is corruption widespread within

businesses in [COUNTRY], or not?

86 86 83 82

72 68 66

92 91 90 82 79

69 67

Croatia Serbia BiH Kosovo Macedonia Montenegro Albania

% yes 2006 %yes 2009

Business corruption is seen in a similar light

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Again: Business corruption perception levels in the wider region are similar or even higher

% yes, Source: Gallup World Poll 2009

82

82

84

78

Is corruption

widespread within

businesses in

[COUNTRY], or not?

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25 20 15 11 8 7 6

42 42

44 48 37 35

28

26 29 23 28 49 52 55

Macedonia Albania Montenegro Kosovo Serbia Croatia Bosnia andHerzegovina

Level is lower Level is about the same Level is higher DK/NA

In BiH, Croatia and Serbia most people see corruption on the rise compared to recent past

Do you think the level of corruption in this

country is lower, about the same, or higher than

it was 5 years ago? (2009)

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78

86

17

25

Hi-jacked states? Almost everyone feels affected by organised crime in Pristina & BiH Federation

Does the organised

crime in [COUNTRY]

affect you personally?

% ‘yes it affects me occasionally’ and ‘yes, it affects me in daily life’

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Rates of reported incidents of petty corruption not so different from life in neighbouring countries

52

36

20 20 19 18 15 14 13 8 8 8

% yes

Sometimes people have to give a bribe or a

present in order to solve their problems. In

the last 12 months, were you,

personally, faced with this kind of

situation, or not?

Source: Gallup World Poll, Balkan Monitor 2009

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Sometimes people have

to give a bribe or a

present in order to

solve their problems. In

the last 12 months,

were you, personally,

faced with this kind of

situation, or not ?

% yes

59

5

29

35

Rates of reported incidents of petty corruption vary strongly: 5% in Slavonia, 59% in Southern Albania

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Albanian civil servants perceived as most likely to be demanding bribes

During the past one year, has any government official or a

civil servant, for instance a customs officer, police officer or

inspector in [COUNTRY], asked you or expected you to pay a

bribe for his service?

41

8 6 7 8 12

Albania BIH Macedonia Montenegro Serbia Kosovo

Yes

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Acceptance of petty corruption on the rise?

39 45 43 52

28

52 47 50 53 43 44 42

24 39

32 37

08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09 08 09

WB Total Serbia Albania BIH Montenegro Croatia Macedonia Kosovo

In order to get better care in a

hospital is it acceptable to use

relations (friends', relatives'

help)?

% yes

Or has the absence of healthcare reform led to a convenient business model?

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Trust in the legal system is practically non-existent: Improvement in Croatia, with smaller changes elsewhere

In [COUNTRY], do you have

confidence in courts and the

judiciary?

5 4 5 4 12 8 12 10 13

5

19 17 21 21

41 33

20 30

27 36 29 36 40

37

41 51

31 40

20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009

Serbia Croatia Macedonia Albania BIH Montenegro Kosovo

A lot Some

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Trust in government remains low…

In [COUNTRY], do you have

confidence in the national

government?

5 4

28 27 22 12 9 13

22 16

3 4 5 6

42 31

35 44

32 43

29

38 33 41

25 25 23 19

2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009

Serbia Montenegro Macedonia Albania Kosovo BIH Croatia

A lot Some

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Confidence in the EU is not much higher in most Western Balkan countries…

In [COUNTRY], do you have

confidence in the EU

institutions?

6 6 18

27 21 18 31 36

43 48

7 9 4 6

35 34

38

41

36 40

40 39 28

29

33 38

32 35

20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009 20082009

Serbia Montenegro Macedonia Albania Kosovo BIH Croatia

A lot Some

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…but there’s hope that change might come from EU integration

What do you think that EU

accession would bring to

[COUNTRY] - Less corruption?

45 51 65 68 71 77 84

Croatia Serbia Bosnia andHerzegovina

Montenegro Macedonia Albania Kosovo

% yes

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What people really trust in… GO Serbia GO!

Compared to other countries in

Europe, is a talent for sports a

strength or a weakness of

[COUNTRY]? (2009)

69

93

88

75

75

58

49

46

WB Total

Serbia

Croatia

Montenegro

BIH

Macedonia

Kosovo

Albania

% strength

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Questions?

manchin@gallup-europe.be

www.balkan-monitor.eu