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A course for Planners &Decision-Makers
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Prepared by Micael Junkov 2008/09EPU/Danidas Environmental Programme The Biodiversity Component
Biodiversity
Module 1: Setting the stage for biodiversity
Lesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?
NRE
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Module 1: Setting the stageLesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment(MA)
The MA is the most comprehensive survey everinto the state of the planet. It was drawn up by1,360 researchers from 95 nations over four yearsfrom 2001 to 2005.
The MA is somewhat unique in definingecosystems in terms of the "services", orbenefits, that people get from them.
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Module 1: Setting the stageLesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Findings Full slideshow
Findings 20-minutepresentation
Findings
Animated slides
The following is an abridged presentation prepared for thepurpose of this course (i.e. reduced number of slides andmodification of a few for the purpose of clarification)
Please consult original presentations at:
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/SlidePresentations.aspxM1L5S3
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Module 1: Setting the stageLesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?
MA conceptual framework
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DirectDrivers
Indirect
Drivers
EcosystemServices
Human
Well-being
Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use
Species introduction or removal
Technology adaptation and use
External inputs (e.g., irrigation)
Resource consumption
Climate change
Natural physical and biological
drivers (e.g., volcanoes)
Indirect Drivers of Change Demographic
Economic (globalization, trade,
market and policy framework)
Sociopolitical (governance and
institutional framework)
Science and Technology Cultural and Religious
Human Well-being andPoverty Reduction
Basic material for a good life
Health
Good Social Relations
Security Freedom of choice and action
Life on Earth:Biodiversity
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What was unique?
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A multi
-
scale assessment
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Module 1: Setting the stageLesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?
Core questions
1. What is the rate and scale of ecosystemchange?
2. What are the consequences of ecosystemchange for the services provided by ecosystemsand for human-well being?
3. How might ecosystems and their services
change over the next 50 years?4. What options exist to conserve ecosystems and
enhance their contributions to human well-being?
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Module 1: Setting the stageLesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?
Main Findings
1. Humans have radicallyaltered ecosystems in last50 years.
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
Year
1 billion in 1800
4 billion in 1975
2 billion in 1920
6.5 billion in 2005
World Population (billions)
Source: UN Population Division 2004; Lee, 2003; Population Reference Bureau M1L5S8
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
500 700 900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100
Year
$1 trillion in 1900
$10 trillion in 1967
$52 trillion in 2003
World GDP (trillion 1990 dollars)
Source: DeLong 1998
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Source: NASA
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Temperate Grasslands &
Woodlands
Temperate Broadleaf
ForestTropical Dry Forest
Tropical Grasslands
Tropical ConiferousForest
Mediterranean Forests
Tropical Moist Forest
0 50 100
Percent of habitat (biome) remaining
Habitat Loss to 1990
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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M d l 1 S tti th tL 5 Wh t i h i t t i ?
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Module 1: Setting the stageLesson 5: What is happening to ecosystem services?
Some ecosystem recovery now underwaybut high rates of conversion continue
Ecosystems in some regions are returning to conditionssimilar to their pre-conversion states
Rates of ecosystem conversion remain high or are increasingfor specific ecosystems and regions
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Year of Peak Fish HarvestHarvest peak
Pre-peak
Post-peak
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and Sea Around Us project
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Scale of change
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20% of the worlds coralreefs were lost and morethan 20% degraded
35% of mangrove area has
been lost in the last severaldecades
Amount of water inreservoirs quadrupled
since 1960
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Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone
Source: NOAA M1L5S18
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280
300
320
340
360
380
400
1954 1969 1983 1998 2012
CO2 Concentration (ppm)
Source: Keeling and Whorf, 2005.
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-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Global Surface Temperature (oC)Relative to 1890-1900 mean
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
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g gpp g y
The balance sheet
Crops
Livestock
Aquaculture
Carbon sequestration
Capture fisheries
Wild foods
Wood fuel
Genetic resources
Biochemicals
Fresh Water
Air quality regulationRegional & local climate
regulation
Erosion regulation
Water purification
Pest regulation
Pollination
Natural Hazard
regulationSpiritual & religious
Aesthetic values
Timber
Fiber
Water regulation
Disease regulation
Recreation & ecotourism
Enhanced Degraded Mixed
Bottom Line: Some 60% of Ecosystem
Services are Degraded M1L5S21Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
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Forest
Boreal
Temperate
Tropical
Dryland
Temperate grassland
Mediterranean
Tropical grassland& savanna
Desert
Inland water
Coastal
Marine
Island
Mountain
Polar
Habitatchange
Climatechange
Invasivespecies
Overexploitation
Pollution(N, P)
Low HighImpact during last Century Currenttrend
IncreasingContinueDecreasing Very rapid increase
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Main Findings
1. Humans have radicallyaltered ecosystems in last50 years.
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2. Changes have brought gainsbut at growing costs thatthreaten achievement ofdevelopment goals. Degradation of many ecosystem services
Increased risk of abrupt changes inecosystems
Growing harm to poor people
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Economic and health costs ofdegradation can be substantial
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Introduction of Zebramussels into aquaticecosystems in the US
$100 million annual coststo power industry
Cost of damage of UKagriculture to otherecosystem services
$2.6 billion (10% of farmreceipts)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Cost of collapse of thecod fishery in Canada
$2 billion in incomesupport and retraining;loss of tens of thousandsof jobs
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Atlantic Cod off Newfoundland
Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication1
Coral reef regimeshifts
Disease emergence
Species
introductions Regional climate
change
Increased likelihood of abrupt changes(established but incomplete evidence)
1 The process by which a lake, pond, or stream becomes eutrophic which means having waters rich in mineral and organic nutrients that
promote a proliferation of plant life, especially algae , which reduces the dissolved oxygen content and often causes the extinction of otherorganisms (www.thefreedictionary.com/dict.asp?Word=Eutrophication).
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Croatia
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Timber and
fuelwood
Grazing
NTFPs
Recreation and
hunting
Watershedprotection
Carbon
sequestration
Passive use
values
Italy
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Timber and
fuelwood
Grazing
NTFPs
Recreation and
hunting
Watershedprotection
Carbon
sequestration
Passive use
values
Economic Value ($ per hectare) Photo: W. Reid
Forests in Italy Forests in Croatia
Economic value of non-marketedservices can be high
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Many services are public goods
27
Fiber
Food
Spiritual & religious
Freshwater
Genetic Resources
Climate regulation
Water purification
Disease regulation
Flood/Fire regulation
Recreation & tourism
Aesthetic
Economic Value ($)
Economic
Valuation
Difficult or
impossible
Easy
Private
Benefit
Capture
Difficult
Easy
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
?
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Impact on Poor andMarginalized People
Poor people are mostdependent on ecosystemservices and most
vulnerable to degradationof the services
Photo credit: Uittapron Juntawonsup/UNEP
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Main Findings
1. Humans have radicallyaltered ecosystems in last50 years.
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2. Changes have brought gainsbut at growing costs thatthreaten achievement ofdevelopment goals.
3. Degradation of ecosystemscould grow worse but can bereversed.
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Response options?
Multi-scale response is needed Multiple stakeholders have different needs.
Responses are available to address the issuesidentified.
Responses insufficient unless relevant directand indirect drivers of change are addressed.
Cross-sectoral responses and more systematicconsideration of trade-offs are required
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The ecosystem approach providesprinciples for integration across scalesand across different responses.
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Conclusions Humans have changed most ecosystems beyond
recognition in a dramatically short space oftime. Some 60% of the ecosystem services thatsupport life on Earth are being degraded or usedunsustainably.
Scientists warn that the harmful consequencesof this degradation could grow significantlyworse in the next 50 years.
The MA observed that ecosystem approachesprovide an important framework for assessingbiodiversity and ecosystem services, and forevaluating and implementing potential
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29 wire services ran the story of the release of the findings innine languages
Hundreds of newspapers around the world carried the story
Front page news in much of Europe as well as China, Brazil,etc.
Evening TV broadcast news in UK, Italy, India, and on CNN-International
BBCs Earth Report ran two half-hour programs
Economist cover story
Launch coverage
Melbourne, Australia, March 30, 2005
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References
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis.World Resources Institute, Washington,DC.WCMC, 2004
Web linksMillennium Ecosystem Assessment slideshows
www.millenniumassessment.org/en/SlidePresentations.aspx
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Thank you!