Dr. Andrew SearsPresident, City Vision University
617-282-9798 x101
Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education
Part 1: About City Vision Christian Education for the
Bottom Half and the Majority World
Source: (US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014)
47% of employment in America is at high risk of being automated away over the next decade or two (Frey & Osborne, 2013)
2025 2050 2075 20930%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Straight Line Projection Growth Degree Attainment (USA)
Access is Dominant Narrative for 21st Century
The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. (2015, January). Indicators of Higher Education Equity in the United States 45 Year Trend Report. http://www.pellinstitute.org/
City Vision’s Focus: the Bottom Half
37 pt. growth
3 pt. growth
6 pt. growth
19 pt. growth
Traditional College Focus
City Vision’s Focus(Disruptive InnovationOpportunity)
2025 2050 2075 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile
Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile
City Vision’s Focus(Disruptive InnovationOpportunity)
2025 2050 2075 21000%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Difference in Projected Educational Attainment
Straight Line Projection
No Change in Growth Rate of Bottom 3 Quartiles
About City Vision University History: Started Rescue College in 1998 as a Program of
AGRM, DEAC Accreditation in 2005, Transferred to TechMission (nonprofit) in 2008
Degrees◦ Bachelor’s in Nonprofit Management, Addictions Studies, Missions,
Business (soon)◦ Master’s in Technology and Ministry
Statistics◦ More than 80% of students eligible for Pell ◦ About a 60% graduation rate ◦ Cumulative 91% job placement rate◦ Tripled enrollment since 2008 (50 to 150 students)
Goal is to be Radically Affordable◦ Undiscounted tuition $6,000/year undergrad and $9,000 grad
school◦ $3,000/year in developing countries
Global Opportunity
100 MillionStudentsin 2000
263 MillionStudentsin 2025(growth primarily in the developing world)
Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf
By 2050, between 1 and 2.5 billion people will have a tertiary education.
City Vision’s International Strategy2015
◦$3,000/year business degree to developing countries
2016◦Launch new $3,000/year associate’s degree
2017◦Target: 1,000+ students in developing
countries2020 and beyond
◦Drop tuition to $2,000◦Target: 10k+ students
City Vision Cost StrategyAutomate everything but faculty interaction
◦ SIS: Homegrown in Salesforce◦ LMS: Moodle◦ Enrollment: use off the shelf marketing automation tools
Course Content ◦ Self-Developed 50%: (Junior, Senior)◦ Outsource 50%: (Freshmen, Sophomore, Saylor, Straighterline,
Paid Courseware vendors, MOOCs, open content)Personnel
◦ Use adjunct faculty/practitioners in low cost of living areas◦ Minimal staff and staff salaries
Marginal cost per student ◦ Currently less than $3,000/year◦ Need to scale to cover fixed recurring cost
Part 2. Strategic Analysis
ChangeAgent
ChangeAgency
YourInstitution
Christianity(Following Jesus)
1. Education for the bottom half/majority world2. Unbundling3. Education on Demand4. Student Centered vs. Faculty Centered5. Non-Western Growth
1. Economics of Online Education2. Christian Mega-Universities3. Cultural & Demographic Shifts4. Increasing Costs
Sustainability Challenges toChristian Higher Educationin the USA
(paradigms)
1. Economics of Online Education
1. Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+ online students) is likely between $500-3,000/year
2. Online education opens up competition independent of geography
3. Online education is a platform business where you pay “rent” to be visible (20-30% of revenue)
4. Dominant characteristic of online education is consolidation
13% of students are online only9% are in for-profit institutions
Sources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke UniversityAmbient Insight
• Higher education overall, about 222 schools make up one-third of enrollment.• Top 20 largest online schools account for one-third of online market.
Source: Online Higher Education Market Update - Eduventures. (n.d.). Retrieved March 16, 2015, from http://www.eduventures.com/insights/online-higher-education-market-update/
1. Online Education = ConsolidationGo Big or Go Home
2. Christian Mega-universities & Growth
Liberty U43%
Grand Canyon U39%
All of CCCU19%
Estimated Growth Since 2005
Total Growth: 175,808 students
Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.
Christianity
1. Educating the bottom half/Non-western Growth2. Unbundling3. Cradle to grave Christian education ecosystem4. Education on demand (Race with the machine)
1. Economics of Online Education2. Mega-Universities3. US Cultural & Demographic Shifts4. Increasing Costs
Sustainability Challenges toChristian Higher Educationin the USA
(paradigms)
Paradigm 2. Unbundling of the Computer Industry
Source: Only the Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove
U of A U of B
Virtually Integrated University
Univ.
Unbundled University
MOOCsOpen Ed Resources
Study Groups
ContractedCourses
Adjunct Faculty
Faculty Networks
Churches
Internship
Univ.
Univ.
Univ.Research
LabCorporations Individuals
OpenContent Publishers
Self-Publish
Univ.Student Community
Faculty Community
Course Materials
Content
KnowledgeDiscovery
Paradigm 2. The Unbundled University
Churches
U of C U of D
Student Community
Faculty Community
Course Materials
Content
KnowledgeDiscovery
City Vision’s Re-bundled Degree Strategy:Bridging MOOCs & Open Ed with Community Partners
City VisionCredentialed Independent Educational Providers (Straighterline,
Saylor)
Paid Coursewar
e(Pearson &
Mcgraw-Hill)
MOOCs & Free Open Education
Resources
Christian Courseware (free & paid)
Internship Sites
(70+ sites)
Credit Partnerships
(Prior Learning Assessment,
ACE & Testing)
Discipleship Study
Centers (in churches & ministries)
Families & Home
Schools
ContentPartners
CommunityPartners(B2B segments)
What business has the most locations in the USA?
14,146
25,900
Sources: http://hirr.hartsem.edu/research/fastfacts/fast_facts.htmlhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/05/04/24-7-wall-st-most-popular-stores/8614949/
314,000
What institution has the most locations in the USA?
City Vision Educational Philosophy
Online Education
Local Discipleship Study Groups:Life Change
Internships: Skills &Practical Work Experience
Part 3. Strategic Recommendations
Three Visions for Future Growth of HE1. Government
◦ Universal Community College, Nationalized Higher Education: Obamacare for Higher Education
◦ Government mega-universities: 1 million+ students◦ Problem: increases secularizing influence of government
education
2. Global Educational Conglomerate◦ 50% of “degrees” globally by 2050 may come from 3-4
tech companies offering free education with a small payment for the credential
◦ Problem: Likely to follow same secularizing tendency as media conglomerates
3. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education
◦ Innovators learn to build modularly on 1 & 2 to expand Christian market share in post-secondary education
Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
Future of Higher Education 2035Tier 1: The Elite
◦ Serve top 5-10% students, tuition >$100k/year (in 2015 dollars) ◦ Analogy: New York Times, Economist
Tier 2: High Quality, Moderate Cost◦ 50% in bankruptcy or merged, tuition $50-100k/year, high touch◦ Analogy: Physical Retail, Cable TV, Phone Companies, Organic Farming
Tier 3: Good Enough Quality, Low Cost◦ 100k+ students or niche, tuition $100-$5,000/year◦ Analogy: Huffington Post, Netflix, Skype, niche ecommerce
Tier 4: Courseware Ecosystem Small Businesses◦ Sell apps, courses, educational content, books, certificates, student services,
videos, etc.◦ Analogy: eBay/Amazon merchants, bloggers, self-publishers, app developers
Tier 5: Courseware platforms◦ 100’s of millions or billions of students, LinkedIn/Lynda.com
Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
How to Survive the Coming Storm:Lessons from Industry Case Studies
1. Innovate, increase operational effectiveness and scale.
◦ Retail & ecommerce, Farming
2. Offer both/and products to compete.◦ Cable TV’s Video on Demand vs. Netflix
3. Be more like innovators while retaining your strengths.
◦ Journalism & News: New York Times
4. Invest in digital growth not physical growth.◦ Blockbuster vs. Netflix
5. Outcompete rather than withdraw.◦ Dominance of Christian radio vs. early Christian response
to Hollywood
Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
Components Packaged in a Traditional College
Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute, August 2, 2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdf
The Core Competenciesof Christian Educationare the Hardest to Replace(Life Transformation &Meta-Content)
Paradigm 3: View Christian education as a cradle to grave ecosystem.
Nearly FreeContent& Innovation
Christian College(Life Transformation)
+ BetterThan
Government Subsidized State University
In a platform world, how do we make the entire Christian education ecosystem/platform more competitive?
Innovation + Life Transformation Has Growing Competitive Advantage over Government Subsidy
Automation and Bloom’s Taxonomy
BecomingCommoditized• Freshman• Sophomore• High School
Core Competency• Grad School
• Senior
• Junior
Str
ateg
y: M
igra
te U
p
Race with the machine not against the machine
StrategyAccelerated educationwith automation
StrategyDouble Down
Blo
oms
Taxo
nom
y Le
vel
Low LevelBlooms
HighLevelBlooms
Subjectivity of AssessmentObjectiveAssessments
SubjectiveAssessments
Most Subject toCommoditization& Automation
Most Dependent on People
Paradigm 4. Education on Demand:Accelerate Education with AutomationExpand “Courses on Demand”
freshmen/sophomore options◦ Adaptive, competency based courses◦ Prior learning/test out credit
Dual Enrollment for Christian High School Students◦ Bluefield College: $135/course◦ Commoditizing lower levels of Bloom’s taxonomy
(Christian high school) becomes marketing investment for student acquisition
Add value through new 4th year◦ Internships◦ Study abroad◦ 4-year Bachelor’s/Master’s program
Further Recommendations1. Invest in marketing
◦ Facilities expense is scaled back to be replaced by marketing expense (rent paid to tech ecosystems)
2. Create an independent skunkworks division
◦ “New wine in new wineskins”◦ Conduct “lean startup” experiments to determine where
to focus◦ Fund an independent division to provide low-cost online
education. i.e. College for America, APU’s University College, Eastern’s Esperanza, YourSchoolNameX
3. Develop plan to cut cost by 50% by 2035◦ Scale back building plans to what is essential ◦ Limit ancillary activities◦ Reinvest revenue from online programs in their growth
and quality, rather than using them only to sustain on-campus programs.
Potential Scenario: 2035-2050Global Scenario
◦ 10 times growth in Christian education globally◦ 90% of degrees are in non-western countries◦ Majority of the world receives degrees/credentials that are
nearly freeUS Scenario
◦ Loss of government subsidies in public higher education means many state schools cannot compete in a competitive market
◦ Christian schools experience dramatic increase in market share relative to public higher education
◦ Christian higher education experiences major consolidation
◦ Christian schools lose some market share to free services provided on tech platforms (like LinkedIn, Google, Apple, Amazon & Microsoft)
◦ 70% of Americans receive a degree with growth primarily coming from low-cost providers
Summary: Key Takeaways1. Access is the dominant story for higher
education in the 21st century
2. Economics & technology are driving consolidation
3. Best strategy is to create a skunkworks
4. Second best strategy is to “race with the machines” not against by gaining core competencies in technology
5. View Christian education as a cradle to grave ecosystem
Supreme Court Decision and Strategic Implications of Prospect of Losing Federal Aid
Bottom Half StrategyJob prep/RoI focusIncrease automationChristian ecosystemMore international
focusFocus on scaleCould benefit from
CBEMore focus on the
poor
Lose Federal Aid StrategyJob prep/RoI FocusIncrease automationChristian ecosystemMore international
focusFocus on scaleCBE likely to allow
CHEMore focus on the
rich
Developing a bottom-half strategy also prepares for a world without federal aid.
Tools to Help Change Agents
Tools for Flipped Classroom Discussion Groups with faculty and staff at your institution:◦YouTube Playlist: http://goo.gl/6Wptak (includes
this talk)◦Udemy MOOC on Disruptive Innovation in
Christian Higher Education: Coming soon
As educators the primary thing we can do is to educate those who have the power to bring change.
For More InformationDissertation: “Disruptive Innovation in Christian
Higher Education and the Poor.” goo.gl/nzkhRP ◦ Bibliography: https://www.zotero.org/andrewsears/items
Slideshare for this talk: http://goo.gl/4dQggf Website: www.cityvision.eduLinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears Contact: [email protected] 617-282-9798
x101
Suggested Reading Horn, M. B., Staker, H., & Christensen, C. M. (2014). Blended: Using
Disruptive Innovation to Improve Schools (1 edition). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Khan, S. (2013). The One World Schoolhouse: Education Reimagined (Reprint edition). New York: Twelve.
Christensen, C., Johnson, C. W., & Horn, M. B. (2010). Disrupting Class, Expanded Edition: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.
DeMillo, R. A. (2011). Abelard to Apple: the fate of American colleges and universities. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.
Carey, K. (2015). The End of College: Creating the Future of Learning and the University of Everywhere. New York: Riverhead Books.
Christensen, C. M., & Raynor, M. E. (2003). The Innovator’s Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth (1 edition). Boston, Mass: Harvard Business School Press.
Craig, R. (2015). College Disrupted: The Great Unbundling of Higher Education. New York: Palgrave Macmillan Trade.
McCluskey, F. B., & Winter, M. L. (2012). The Idea of the Digital University: Ancient Traditions, Disruptive Technologies and the Battle for the Soul of Higher Education. Policy Studies Organization.
Selingo, J. J. (2013). College (un)bound: the future of higher education and what it means for students. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
DiscussionPart 1: Bottom Half
◦Access, Majority World, Pricing Changes Part 2: Strategic Analysis
◦Consolidation, Unbundling, Content is FreePart 3: Strategic Recommendations
◦Future: Gov’t, Corporate, Tier 2 (CCCU), Tier 3 (City Vision)
◦Christian ecosystem◦On Demand, CBE, Adaptive, Accelerated Ed◦Transformation/meta-content vs. commoditized
content◦Skunkworks, Change Agents
Dr. Andrew Sears
Concluding Discussion
Constraints on InnovationDebt/Lack of capitalCurrent cost structureCommitment to facultyPhysical plant/sunk costPolitical realitiesLack of core competency in innovationMissional constraintsOutdated underlying worldview/myths
The Change AgentChange agents as Linkers
The main role of the change agent is to facilitate the flow of innovations from a change agency to an audience of
clients Change agents usually possess a high degree of expertise regarding the innovations that are being diffused
The sequence of Change Agent Roles
1. To develop a need for change on the part of clients
2. To establish an information exchange relationship
3. To diagnose problems
4. To create an intent to change in the client
5. To translate intentions into action
6. To stabilize adoption and prevent discontinuance
7. To achieve a terminal relationship with clients
A Change Agent’s relative success in securing the adoption of innovations by clients is positively related to:
8. The extent of the change agent’s effort in contacting clients
9. A client orientation rather than a change agency orientation
10. The degree to which the diffusion program is compatible with clients’ needs
11. The change agent’s empathy with clients
12. His or her homophily with clients
13. Credibility in the clients’ eyes
14. The extent to which he or she works through opinion leaders
15. Increasing clients’ ability to evaluate innovations
Source: Diffusion of Innovation, Chapter 9, Everett Rogers, Slide/Graphic from: http://goo.gl/gQlFtB
ChangeAgent
ChangeAgency
YourSchool
What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 1
Increased Productivity in Other Sectors
Increased Cost of High
Skilled Labor = Increase Costs of Faculty &
Senior Administrat
ion
Increased•
standardized tests• large
lectures• teaching assistants
• administrat
ive staff• adjuncts
Symptoms to CopeUnderlying Cause 1Baumol’s Cost DiseaseEconomics of Superstars
Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
There was a 60 times increase in productivity from 1500-2000.Higher Education has not seen this much productivity increase.
What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 2
Increased College Attainment of Rich & Wealth Concentration
More Colleges Competing for Students in the top
Income Quartile (who pay full tuition)
Increased• resort-like campus• building costs• student services
Decreasing Gov’t Funding of Higher Education
Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
Creates Prisoners dilemma arms race on investing in capital projects.
Understanding the For-Profit Business Model
Sources: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdfhttp://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/for_profit_report/PartII/GrandCanyon.pdf
Marketing 3389 35%
Profit 1848 19%
Instruction 217722%
Other 2295.17766497
462 24%
For Profit Expenses (Grand Canyon)
Private Nonprofit: 32%
Comparing Business ModelsFor Profit
◦ Revenue: $11,130 per student◦ Instruction: 26%
Private Nonprofit◦ Revenue: $37,869 per student◦ Instruction: 33%◦ Research: 12.5%
Public◦ Revenue: $18,922 per student◦ Instruction: 28%◦ Research: 14%
Source: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf
Potential Ways for Traditional CHE to Partner with City Vision
Articulation AgreementsServing as a “skunkworks” for multiple
schoolsCity Vision as a Christian Community
College feeder school (Associate’s degrees)◦Opens up new markets for low-income and
international schoolsYour faculty volunteer to support City
Vision’s development of ultra low cost degree program
Informal diffusion of innovation partnerships
Consulting
Source: Our Kids, Robert Putnum
5 pt. decline
10 pt. decline
Gap Doublesto 10 points
5 point gap
Is a shortage of pastoral leadership among the poor affecting their church attendance?
Appendix
5. Cost: Increasing Cost of Higher Education
Increasing Cost of High Skilled Labor
Source: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA.
Baumol’s Cost Disease in Concert Symphonies
Source: Webb, D. (2014, November 3). Baumol’s Cost Disease Is Killing Me! Retrieved from http://www.clydefitchreport.com/2014/11/cost-disease-opera-labor-arts-inflation/
The Race Between Education and Technology
1915-1980 1980-2005-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Growth Supply of Degrees Jobs Lost Now Requiring DegreesEducation > Tech Job Loss
An
nu
al G
row
th
3. Growth of For Profits
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Essential Elements of Christian Education
1. Christian worldview2. Christian community3. Christian content4. Christian care for stakeholders
Process for Modular Christian Education
Theology & Christian
Worldview
Audience, Pedagogy & Goals
Christian Community & Meta Content
ChristianCourses Theology Courses Secular Courseware Secular MOOCs & Open
Education Resources
Subj
ects
PCs
Mobile
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Mainframes
Traditional
Higher Educatio
n
Low-Volume Online
Ed
For ProfitHigher Education
Disruptive Innovation Theory
High Price
OnlineEd
Radically Affordable & AccessibleOnline Ed
Community College
ChristianSocial Services
Radically AffordableSocially ResponsibleChristian Education
City Vision Strategy
Rescue CollegeUrban Missions
1998-2007
City Vision College2008-14
City Vision University2015 -
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Image Source: Wikimedia
Online education is here
Cell Phones in 1983
Smart Phones: Disruptive Technology
Diamandis, P. H., & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York: Free Press. p. 289
“People with a smart phone today can access tools that would have cost thousands a few decades ago.”
Changing Role of Workers & Consumers
Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meek
Changing Role of Workers & Consumers
KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meek
5. From Faculty Centric to Student CentricSharing Economy (Uber) Helps Students but Hurts Faculty
Regulators
InnovatorsIncumbents
Students
Faculty
Reimagining Role of FacultyCase Studies:
◦Music industry, journalism, TEDFind Research Funding or Find your “TED
Talk”◦Start with your “Idea Worth Spreading”
Read Platform, The Startup of You and The Alliance
Establish your platform across multi-format and multi-channel revenue sources◦Spread ideas horizontally across different
media and markets◦Teaching, consulting, writing, blogging, etc.
The Opportunity Divide:Mismatch of Jobs & Education
Jobs in 2018
People in 2012
Difference
Less than High School 10% 12.42% -2.4%
High School Degree 28% 30.72% -2.7%
Some College 12% 16.97% -5.0%Associate’s
Degree 17% 9.45% 7.6%Bachelor’s
Degree 23% 19.49% 3.5%
Graduate Degree 10% 10.95% -0.9%
21st Century Challenge: College Graduation
Changing our Educational Trajectory
Source: Lumina Foundation Vision
20th Century Challenge: High School Graduation
Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
2025 2050 2075 21000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile
Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile
21st CenturyDisruptive InnovationOpportunity
City Vision’s Focus
Focus ofTraditionalChristianHigher Education
2025 2050 2075 21000%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Difference in Projected Educational Attainment
Straight Line Projection
No Change in Growth Rate of Bottom 3 Quartiles
Figure 10. Educational Attainment by Birth Cohort
Figure 11. Percent of Population 25 Years and Over Who Have Completed High School or College
University of Phoenix (2010)Enrollment = 600,000
University of Phoenix (2015)Enrollment = 215,000
Current Stage of Online Education
LMS Stage Courseware Stage
Image Source: Wikimedia
Innovation Cycle of Online Education
Traditional Higher Education
Traditional Monastery Higher Education Model
Local ChristianCommunity
Practical Work ExperienceStudents “Close” to Instructor
Distant From
Students
Re-bundling Online Education with Church Study Groups & Internships
Local Discipleship &Study Groups
Practical Work Experience
Distant From
Students
Instructor
Possible Christian Models of Disruptive Innovation Christian Megauniversities
◦ Liberty, Grand Canyon Competency Based Education
◦ Lipscomb University, DePaul University, Antioch School of Church Planting
Radically New Education Models◦ Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, City Vision
Christian Open Education (next slide) Investment and Outsourcing Companies
◦ Significant Systems, Capital Education Group, Bisk Education Global Innovators
◦ Global University Course Vendors & Clearinghouses
◦ Knowledge Elements, Bible Mesh, Learning House
Free, Low-Cost Christian Courses Free or Open Christian Content Providers
◦ Open Biola, Covenant, Regent Luxvera, christianuniversity.org , Christian Leaders Institute, BiblicalTraining.org, harvestime.org
Aggregators of Christian Course Content: ◦ iTunes, Udemy, Alison.com, YouTube, Vimeo
Low Cost Christian CEU Providers◦ www.insight.org/CEU, www.lifepointemedia.com, www.lifeway.com/ceu,
livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/, www.precept.org/ceu, www.sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu, www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies , christiancounselingceu.com
Paid Course Material Wholesale Providers◦ Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh,
connect.ligonier.org, CUGN.org
Strategy for Serving the Bottom Half
1. Radically Affordable◦ Radical low cost and low/no debt
2. Ease of Access◦ Location, Time, Working Students, Mobile
3. Remedial education available if needed◦ Adaptive for students at any level
4. Cultural fit ◦ Adult Friendly, No Assimilation
Image Source: Wikimedia
Stage in Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees
USAverage
GlobalAverage
TopQuartile
3rd Quartile
1st & 2nd Quartile
4. Demographic Shifts: The End of the Good Times
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
Change High School Graduate by State
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
Demographic Shifts: Race/Ethnicity
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
Debt: Distribution of Total Student Debt by Level of Household Net Worth
The Problem with Only Credentialing
The 25th percentile for male college graduates has been about $4,000 to $5,000 more than the median male high school graduate in recent years, whereas among women, the gap has recently been around $2,000.
Source: http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/09/college-may-not-pay-off-for-everyone.html#.VUJT69LF8ep
College Entrance, Completion & Persistence by Income Quartile
http://www.russellsage.org/research/chartbook/percentage-students-entering-and-completing-college-and-college-persistence-incom
Growth of For Profit Education
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For Profits Dominate Age 22 and above
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For Profits Dominate Black & Latino Students
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For Profits Serve Disproportionately Female Students
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Average Revenue per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Average Spending Per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Instructional Spending by Type
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For Profits Get Disproportionally High Federal Aid
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
For Profits Highest Load Debt Per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
Figure 15. Percent of Church Growth by Region
Figure 16. Christian Membership by Region
Architectural Diagram of Courseware Ecosystems
Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf
Environmental (adaptive)vs. Internally-Driven (interpretive) Strategy
Tier 3 StrategyFocus on scale
◦ Goal is to be able to price close to marginal cost per student
◦ Examples: College for America, MegauniversitiesUse lean startup methodology to innovate
◦ Lean marketing, lean course development, growth hacking
◦ Bi-cultural across tech and education with tech dominantCut cost
◦ fast follower◦ build on courseware platforms◦ partner with low-income communities & developing
countries◦ highly automate back-office functions
Disrupt yourself strategically◦ At lowest levels of education and in untapped markets
Idea 1. MOOC on Disruption in CHEOpportunity
◦Publish a multimedia toolkit as a free MOOC Udacity that change agents in CHE could use to generate discussion on their campuses
Plan◦Extend material from Andrew Sears’
presentation and dissertation into an open online course (more adaptable than a book)
◦Include content from leading CHE institutions (like George Fox U, etc.)
Funding Proposal◦$10k-20k to fund course development &
marketing
Idea 2: Ultra-Low Cost Christian Associate’s Degree
Opportunity◦ Provide an Ultra-Low Cost ($3,000/year) Christian
Associate’s Degree targeting US market to Serve as Feeder to CCCU Schools (functioning like an Online Christian Community College)
Plan◦ Expand overall CHE market by providing new pricing level◦ Provide alternative to Community college system that
provides less than 1% transfer rate to Christian schools◦ Help identify top tier students from lower-income
backgrounds to transfer to Christian universities◦ Utilize free Christian materials (like Our Daily Bread
University)Funding Proposal
◦ $20k-50k for course development + $20k-$50k for marketing
Idea 3. Ultra-low Cost ($3k/yr) Christian Business Degree for Developing Countries
Opportunity ◦We have partners lined up to deliver 1,000+
students within 2 years, and we could use seed capital to ramp up now in preparation
Plan◦Need to hire dean and support staff now to
ramp up ◦See attached degree summary
Funding Proposal◦Could use $100k to $500k as a grant or an
evergreen loan
Method
Students
Mission and Methods
Mission
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: Malik, K. (2013). Human development report 2013. The rise of the South: Human progress in a diverse world. The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World (March 15, 2013). UNDP-HDRO Human Development Reports. Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/14/hdr2013_en_complete.pdf
Global Projection on Tertiary Education(baseline and optimistic)
Global Projection on Tertiary Education(four scenerios)
Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf