Economic Forecast for Northeast Louisiana Presented to the
Business Outlook Summit Monroe, Louisiana March 29, 2007 Dr. Robert
Eisenstadt University of Louisiana-Monroe Dr. John Francis
Louisiana Tech University
Slide 2
The measured labor force in NE Louisiana has fallen: 2005-2006
change in labor force = -5.6% in employment = -2.0%
Slide 3
Unemployment, however, is not the issue it used to be..
(figures from July 2006 household survey, not seasonally
adjusted)
Slide 4
Employment gains and losses (establishment survey)
Slide 5
Data from the 2005-2 Job Vacancy Survey for NE Louisiana: What
a difference a year makes. Employment category (total 2005-2
employment) Job Vacancy Survey: reported vacancies in 2005-2 change
in employment 2005-2 to 2006-2 (unfilled "vacancies") or excess
hires education and health services (32713)627119(508) Trade,
transportation utilities (22199)521300(221) Professional and
business services (8955)286500214 Other services (3177)24536(209)
Financial activities (6301)188(27)(215) Construction
(5665)136239103 Manufacturing (12526)92(877)(969) Leisure and
hospitality (9117)50171121 Natural resources/mining
(2644)29(226)(255) information (2108) 035 Public administration
(6246)12(14)(26)
Slide 6
Unable to find qualified applicants = 20.7% Shortage of people
in occupational category = 11.0% Not enough applications submitted
= 14.6% Applicants will not work for offered compensation = 8.5%
Applicant cannot pass drug or background check = 7.3% No difficulty
at all = 8.5% In trying to fill this position what is the greatest
difficulty you have faced? From the 2005 (quarter 2) Job Vacancy
Survey www.laworks.net
Slide 7
Skill Composition of NE Louisiana Labor Force
Slide 8
Comparison of Skills with State and National Levels
Slide 9
Composition of Labor Force
Slide 10
Rankings of Proportion of State Labor Force without a High
School Diploma
Slide 11
Ranking of Proportion of State Labor Force with Some Training
Beyond High School
Slide 12
Labor Force Participation Rate Louisiana 71.3% Ark-LA-Miss
73.7% United States 78.3% LA is well below the national
average
Slide 13
Ranking of State Labor Force Participation Rates
Slide 14
Labor Force Participation Rates by Education Groups
Slide 15
Wage Inequality Why Does Wage Inequality Matter? Equity Some
evidence that it reduces overall consumption and economic
growth
Slide 16
90-10 Wage Ratios
Slide 17
90-50 Wage Ratios
Slide 18
Distribution of Weekly Wages
Slide 19
2004-05: 4.7% increase 2005-06: 9.9% increase 2004-05: 1.3%
increase 2005-06: 6.5% increase Post-Katrina gains in retail sales
are strong :
Slide 20
2004 Per capita personal income Ouachita: $26,595 Lincoln:
$23,003 2005-06 change=18.8%2005-06 change=15.0%
Slide 21
Year over year percentage (3-month running average) change in
estimated retail sales for Ouachita Parish
Slide 22
Car, van and light truck sales are quite stable and show some
gains
Slide 23
2006 permits for construction projects are well ahead of 2005
levels in both number, square footage, and real estimated
value.
Slide 24
Existing home sales (all homes > $50,000) Homes sold are for
Ouachita and contiguous parishes. NE LA Board of Realtors.
(constant 2006 $.)
Slide 25
Existing Home Sales: Closing price > $200,000
Slide 26
Home sales: closing price $50k - $200k
Slide 27
Ouachita and Lincoln Parishes gain population in 2006 Ouachita
= +1,551; Lincoln=+539
Slide 28
Thank God for Babies. 27,262 babies (8.8% of 2000 population)
were born in NE Louisiana between 2000 and 2005.