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Economic Forecast for Northeast Louisiana Presented to the Business Outlook Summit Monroe, Louisiana March 29, 2007 Dr. Robert Eisenstadt University of Louisiana-Monroe Dr. John Francis Louisiana Tech University

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The measured labor force in NE Louisiana has fallen: 2005-2006 change in labor force = -5.6% in employment = -2.0%

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Unemployment, however, is not the issue it used to be.. (figures from July 2006 household survey, not seasonally adjusted)

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Employment gains and losses (establishment survey)

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Data from the 2005-2 Job Vacancy Survey for NE Louisiana: What a difference a year makes. Employment category (total 2005-2 employment) Job Vacancy Survey: reported vacancies in 2005-2 change in employment 2005-2 to 2006-2 (unfilled "vacancies") or excess hires education and health services (32713)627119(508) Trade, transportation utilities (22199)521300(221) Professional and business services (8955)286500214 Other services (3177)24536(209) Financial activities (6301)188(27)(215) Construction (5665)136239103 Manufacturing (12526)92(877)(969) Leisure and hospitality (9117)50171121 Natural resources/mining (2644)29(226)(255) information (2108) 035 Public administration (6246)12(14)(26)

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Unable to find qualified applicants = 20.7% Shortage of people in occupational category = 11.0% Not enough applications submitted = 14.6% Applicants will not work for offered compensation = 8.5% Applicant cannot pass drug or background check = 7.3% No difficulty at all = 8.5% In trying to fill this position what is the greatest difficulty you have faced? From the 2005 (quarter 2) Job Vacancy Survey www.laworks.net

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Skill Composition of NE Louisiana Labor Force

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Comparison of Skills with State and National Levels

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Composition of Labor Force

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Rankings of Proportion of State Labor Force without a High School Diploma

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Ranking of Proportion of State Labor Force with Some Training Beyond High School

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Labor Force Participation Rate Louisiana 71.3% Ark-LA-Miss 73.7% United States 78.3% LA is well below the national average

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Ranking of State Labor Force Participation Rates

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Labor Force Participation Rates by Education Groups

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Wage Inequality Why Does Wage Inequality Matter? Equity Some evidence that it reduces overall consumption and economic growth

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90-10 Wage Ratios

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90-50 Wage Ratios

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Distribution of Weekly Wages

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2004-05: 4.7% increase 2005-06: 9.9% increase 2004-05: 1.3% increase 2005-06: 6.5% increase Post-Katrina gains in retail sales are strong :

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2004 Per capita personal income Ouachita: $26,595 Lincoln: $23,003 2005-06 change=18.8%2005-06 change=15.0%

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Year over year percentage (3-month running average) change in estimated retail sales for Ouachita Parish

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Car, van and light truck sales are quite stable and show some gains

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2006 permits for construction projects are well ahead of 2005 levels in both number, square footage, and real estimated value.

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Existing home sales (all homes > $50,000) Homes sold are for Ouachita and contiguous parishes. NE LA Board of Realtors. (constant 2006 $.)

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Existing Home Sales: Closing price > $200,000

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Home sales: closing price $50k - $200k

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Ouachita and Lincoln Parishes gain population in 2006 Ouachita = +1,551; Lincoln=+539

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Thank God for Babies. 27,262 babies (8.8% of 2000 population) were born in NE Louisiana between 2000 and 2005.

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Looking ahead to 2008