Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
Agostinho Vilanculos
Supervisors: - Prof. Denis Hughes (IWR, Rhodes University, SA)
- Dr. Elonio Muiwane (Eduardo Mondlane University, Moz)
Balancing water for improving multireservoir system Operation using hydrological information: Integrated hydrological modeling special focus on Zambezi river basin
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
Outline
Background - Related Previous Studies - Geographic Location - Surface Water Potential
MethodologyPreliminary findsFurther Studs
Questions and comments
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
PREVIOUS STUDIES IN THE STUDY AREA
Existing and applied Water Resources Systems: - Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting (Jessen, 2001);- Flood Watch Model (DHI, 2009);- Comparison of two model approaches in the
Zambezi river basin with regard to model reliability and identifiably (Winsemius et al., 2006);
- Impact of climatic Changes on hydrology (Asante and Vilanculos, 2009).
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
BACKGROUND: Problem and Motivation
Problem statement:• 30 million in 2030 70 million• Pop. growth will increase water
demand for agric. And energy• 80% population lives on rainfed
agriculture• Irrigation potential more than 3
million ha only 5% are developed• Poor ground hydro-climatic
monitoring infra-structures (Tumbare, 2004; Asante, 2007; FAO, 2007)
Motivation: GIS-RS-Hydrologic Model tools
Geographic Location
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
Water Resources Potential - Climatic and Hydrology
Hydrology: River and Discharge• Lukulo river - 4.1 km3/year• Zambezi river - 33.5 km3/year• Kafue river - 10 km3/year• Luangwa river - 22 km3/year• Shiri River - 16 km3/year• Kabora Bassa lake - 77.5 km3/year • Malawi Lake - 29 km3/year• Shiri Out flow to Moz- 12.5 km3/year
Rainfall: Range from 570mm/year (Simi Arid Area central to 2190mm/year in East and North
Source: (Hungwe et. al;., 2000FAO, 2007 Tumbare, 2004).
Countries Irrigation Potential (ha)
Area under irrigation (ha)
% of Area under irrigation (ha)
Water Requirement total (km³/year)
Angola 700 000 2 000 0.3 9. 50
Namibia 11 000 6 142 55.8 0.255
Botswana 1 080 0 0.0 0.006
Zimbabwe 165 400 49 327 29.8 1.737
Zambia 422 000 41400 9.8 5.064
Tanzania 0 0 0.0 0.000
Malawi 160 900 28 000 17.4 2.092
Mozambique
1700 000 20 000 1.2 18 700
Total 3 160 380 146 860 4.65 18718.65
Irrig. Potential, Water Requirement and area under irrigation
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
Water R. Potential - Hydraulic Infrastructure
Source: Zambezi River Authority
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
AIMS OF THE STUDY
• Identify the interlinking between up and downstream WRMS.
• Identify the relationship to be made between power generation and flood impacts downstream.
• To develop a or no coordinated methodology for daily/monthly operating strategies in the Zambezi River Basin.
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
METHODOLOGY
Identification of current WRMS and Selection of an existing WRMS FrameworkUse of a selected WRMS for:
- Delineation of preliminary boundaries- Calculation of daily soil water balance and flow- Selection of the monitoring and calibration sites- Run preliminary model in various scenarios (with and
without Dam discharges connected) and predicting the impacts downstreamFlood Risk Analysis at Downstream Statistics Analysis
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
CASE STUDIES
1. Existing Water Resources Management Systems in the
Zambezi River Basin
- Quest.: What are the WRMS existing in the Study area?
2. Hydrological Scale in Hydrological Models
- Quest.: How do different scale hydrological models link with each other?
3. Balancing water for power generation and for other users downstream
- Quest.: What is the role of implementing of a muiltreservoir operation system on the integrated river basin management ?
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
EXPECTED RESULTS
• Doctoral thesis in hydrology.• Knowledge on downstream implication from
upstream operational reservoir in the Zambezi basin.
• Knowledge on definition of optimal hydropower reservoir operation.
• Guidelines on how well the multi-reservoir systems in series and parallels can be operated in beneficial main through integrated water resources system framework
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
Preliminary Results (1): WRMS- Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting
• Manual method of counting takes a lot of time
• it does not gives the quantity of rain for each sub-basin or for the all basin
Opportunity: The GIS Spatial Analyst tool offer an excellent functionality
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
Preliminary Results (2): WRMS - Mike Flood Watch Model
• Advantage: Use of observed data
• Disadvantages: - Designed for small catchments- Depends of the reader - Power Coverage (rain gauges)
- Extreme events ( Floods and
Droughts)Floods – Destroy infra-structures
Droughts - concentrate in small rills away from the river gauges Opportunities: RFE Satellite Data
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
Preliminary Results (3) : Potential Conceptual Model Produced
• Delineation of model boundaries
• Preliminary calculation of flows
http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/hydro ftp://daac.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/.
http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/adds/africa .
DEM Soils Data Land Cover/use Rainfall Evapotranspiration
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106 121 136Time
Q (
m3/s
)
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
PRELIMINARY RESULTS (4): SELECTION OF CALIBRATION AND MONITORING SITES
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes University
Further Studs• Input data validation results are underway
• Model calibration and preliminary results are
underway
• Creation of Dam Links Modules- Depending on
historical data of upstream countries
• Flood Risk Analysis
• Hydrological Stochastic analysis
Eduardo Mondlane UniversityInstitute for Water Resource, Rhodes UniversityPhD Proposal-Progress
Thank you
Questions and Comments?