ETHANOL -
Energy GroupKhoa Nguyen
Brian Masters
Elena Jaimes
Zach Walker
Charise Frias
Problem Definition and Current State of System
Part 1
Ethanol Biofuel Ethanol is produced by breaking down plant
matter into simple sugars and starches, then fermenting and distilling it into alcohol.
Commonly used as a 10% mixture in petroleum fuels to help produce a cleaner burning fuel.
Also used in E85 Flex Fuel vehicles at an 85% ethanol mixture to 15% petroleum.
13.9 billion gallons produced in 2011 According to the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA)
Government subsidies reaching $6 billion annually.
E85 and Ethanol enriched fuels
BenefitsRenewable source, 6 months to grow and
convert to ethanol.10-30% lower vehicle emissions, decreased
smog levels nearly 25% since 1990Reduces fossil fuel imports.Supports Rural communities- creates jobs
through ethanol production plants.
E85 and Ethanol enriched fuels
DisadvantagesGreenhouse gas emission- end users experience
less emissions but production emissions cancel out real gains.
Land use - Significant land needed. . Cuts into land available for food production.
No consumer MPG gainEnergy intensive production- takes almost the same
amount of energy to manufacture as it supplies.Population growth and climate change demand more
food production, fighting the production of ethanol.
Current state analysis
Sustainable Resource Use and Stock-and-flow models
Part 2
Sustainable Resource Use and Stock-and-Flow Models
E85 still creates greenhouse gas emissions
– 85% ethanol, 15% gasoline
High net-energy Yields
Solutions
Alternative energy solutions: wind, solar, electric
Responses to Ethanol:‘Green Gasoline’Microalgae
Drivers, indicators, thresholds and variables
Part 3
Causal chain diagram
Impact: Environmental and Health
Increasing oil consumption
government
Automobile industry
Agricultural industry
Risk to public health
Local economy
globalization
technology
Respiratory issue
E85 related mishaps
Increasing cancer rates
technology
Activists/lobbyists
Economic growth
Edge on competitors
Activists/lobbyists
Profit
profit
External environmental issue
Agricultural technology
Scenarios and our vision
Part 4
No intervention “Business as usual” If there was no intervention to our
current state, then the following would occur:We continue with fossil fuelsReach peak oilNew energy technologies will eventually
diminish ethanolNegative environmental Impact
Worst case scenario
Increase in E85 Production Negative Environmental Impact Completely dependent on fossil fuels
Best case scenario
Electric cars only Positive environmental Impact Food crops used for food ONLY Cellulosic ethanol
Made from non food items such as switchgrass, wood chips and even the leaves and stalks of corn.
Vision In the future, there will be a prohibition of fossil fuels/
E85 and dominant use of energy will be electric-based. The current government will be socialism, and they will fund electric energy for transportation and home use. Also, the prices for electric-based cars will be affordable for everyone and the land use for E85 production will be used strictly for food purposes. Gas stations supplying E85 will be replaced with charging stations/other alternatives.
Overall, our vision will result in preservation of the environment and biodiversity. Future generations will have a healthier and more sustainable world.
Transition strategies and Trade-offs
Part 5
Transition strategies
Paradigm Shift Spread the Knowledge Government Support Laws and Regulations Make Driving Electrical Beneficial Adapt Cities Ban Gas Powered Vehicles
Trade-offs and stakeholders Pollution from
development Loss of Jobs Change in
Infrastructure Gas Vehicles to
Electric Disposal Cost
Consumers Drivers Car and Gas Companies Government Farmers
Timetable2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035Full Budget implemented and capital acquired from government.
Vehicles and charging stations begin production.
Regulations change ethanol policy to lower output as electric car infrastructure increases.
Further production of charging stations. Gas stations start to leave the market completely.
Full ban of combustion engine use.
New Government regulations and incentives for electric cars.
New wave of electric cars and motors hit the market slowly taking over the market.
Government funded program to dispose of the mass of combustion engine vehicles.
Banning of combustion engine cars on the road and can only be used in certain industries.
Research and education provided to increase the technology of electric cars/renewable energy.
Food crops become for food only and not the production of ethanol.