ETHANOL -

Energy GroupKhoa Nguyen

Brian Masters

Elena Jaimes

Zach Walker

Charise Frias

Problem Definition and Current State of System

Part 1

Ethanol Biofuel Ethanol is produced by breaking down plant

matter into simple sugars and starches, then fermenting and distilling it into alcohol.

Commonly used as a 10% mixture in petroleum fuels to help produce a cleaner burning fuel.

Also used in E85 Flex Fuel vehicles at an 85% ethanol mixture to 15% petroleum.

13.9 billion gallons produced in 2011 According to the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA)

Government subsidies reaching $6 billion annually.

E85 and Ethanol enriched fuels

BenefitsRenewable source, 6 months to grow and

convert to ethanol.10-30% lower vehicle emissions, decreased

smog levels nearly 25% since 1990Reduces fossil fuel imports.Supports Rural communities- creates jobs

through ethanol production plants.

E85 and Ethanol enriched fuels

DisadvantagesGreenhouse gas emission- end users experience

less emissions but production emissions cancel out real gains.

Land use - Significant land needed. . Cuts into land available for food production.

No consumer MPG gainEnergy intensive production- takes almost the same

amount of energy to manufacture as it supplies.Population growth and climate change demand more

food production, fighting the production of ethanol.

Current state analysis

Sustainable Resource Use and Stock-and-flow models

Part 2

Sustainable Resource Use and Stock-and-Flow Models

E85 still creates greenhouse gas emissions

– 85% ethanol, 15% gasoline

High net-energy Yields

Solutions

Alternative energy solutions: wind, solar, electric

Responses to Ethanol:‘Green Gasoline’Microalgae

Drivers, indicators, thresholds and variables

Part 3

Causal chain diagram

Impact: Environmental and Health

Increasing oil consumption

government

Automobile industry

Agricultural industry

Risk to public health

Local economy

globalization

technology

Respiratory issue

E85 related mishaps

Increasing cancer rates

technology

Activists/lobbyists

Economic growth

Edge on competitors

Activists/lobbyists

Profit

profit

External environmental issue

Agricultural technology

Scenarios and our vision

Part 4

No intervention “Business as usual” If there was no intervention to our

current state, then the following would occur:We continue with fossil fuelsReach peak oilNew energy technologies will eventually

diminish ethanolNegative environmental Impact

Worst case scenario

Increase in E85 Production Negative Environmental Impact Completely dependent on fossil fuels

Best case scenario

Electric cars only Positive environmental Impact Food crops used for food ONLY Cellulosic ethanol

Made from non food items such as switchgrass, wood chips and even the leaves and stalks of corn.

Vision In the future, there will be a prohibition of fossil fuels/

E85 and dominant use of energy will be electric-based. The current government will be socialism, and they will fund electric energy for transportation and home use. Also, the prices for electric-based cars will be affordable for everyone and the land use for E85 production will be used strictly for food purposes. Gas stations supplying E85 will be replaced with charging stations/other alternatives.

Overall, our vision will result in preservation of the environment and biodiversity. Future generations will have a healthier and more sustainable world.

Transition strategies and Trade-offs

Part 5

Transition strategies

Paradigm Shift Spread the Knowledge Government Support Laws and Regulations Make Driving Electrical Beneficial Adapt Cities Ban Gas Powered Vehicles

Trade-offs and stakeholders Pollution from

development Loss of Jobs Change in

Infrastructure Gas Vehicles to

Electric Disposal Cost

Consumers Drivers Car and Gas Companies Government Farmers

Timetable2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035Full Budget implemented and capital acquired from government.

Vehicles and charging stations begin production.

Regulations change ethanol policy to lower output as electric car infrastructure increases.

Further production of charging stations. Gas stations start to leave the market completely.

Full ban of combustion engine use.

New Government regulations and incentives for electric cars.

New wave of electric cars and motors hit the market slowly taking over the market.

Government funded program to dispose of the mass of combustion engine vehicles.

Banning of combustion engine cars on the road and can only be used in certain industries.

Research and education provided to increase the technology of electric cars/renewable energy.

Food crops become for food only and not the production of ethanol.