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The Dairy-Free Boom Free From Food Expo, Barcelona, June 2017
2
Today’s presentation
Boom in plant-based innovation and expansion of
vegan positioning
Growth of
dairy-free
What was niche is now mainstream
Flexitarianism, not veganism The drivers
Taste, health, ethics and the environment as platforms Engaging
consumers
Potential future directions Where next?
3 Source: Mintel GNPD
Plant-based products now account for 11% of all ‘dairy’ NPD
94% 93% 92% 89% 89%
6% 7% 8% 11% 11%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 to date
Total Dairy-based Total Plant-based
Total European NPD in milk, yogurt and desserts,
by dairy- or plant-based
4 Source: Mintel GNPD
Germany shows a strong lead in plant-based innovation
10% 13% 18% 18% 18%
13%
18% 9% 10% 15%
14%
9% 15% 13% 9%
15% 9% 12% 12% 9%
10% 9%
9% 8% 9%
38% 41% 38% 40% 41%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 to date
Germany Spain France UK Italy All Others
Plant-based yogurt, milk and desserts
NPD in Europe, by country
5 Source: Mintel GNPD
Launches up in all segments, but greater focus now on yogurts
72% 77% 68% 68% 68%
19% 14%
22% 22% 23%
8% 8% 10% 10% 10%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 to date
Plant Based Drinks Plant Based Spoonable Yogurts
Plant Based Ice Cream & Frozen Yogurt
Plant-based yogurt, milk and desserts
NPD in Europe, by segment
6
The big picture:
“Eat food. Not too much.
Mostly plants.” Michael Pollan, In Defence of Food: An Eater's Manifesto
7 Source: Mintel GNPD
NPD booms in vegan foods, grows in low/no lactose
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 todate
Vegan
Low/No/Reduced Lactose
European food & drink new product introductions
labelled vegan or no/low lactose, as % total NPD
8 Source: Mintel GNPD
Close to 1 in 5 new products in Germany is ‘vegan’
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 todate
Germany
UK
Europe
Global
European food & drink new product introductions
labelled vegan, as % total NPD
9
Health & Wellness
Diversity in protein
sourcing
Ethic & Environment
Recent
food safety scandals
Consumers limit their
consumption of meat
and dairy due to health
concerns
The variety of available
proteins (nuts, seeds,
soy, legumes, whole
grains) provides
accessible alternatives to
meat and dairy
Due to numerous
scandals some
consumers are
concerned about the
safety of meat and
poultry products
Animal welfare and
environmental
awareness encourages
consumers to look for
plant-based alternatives
A shift from niche vegetarians & vegans to
mass market flexitarians
Multiple factors explain the growth of plant-based diets
10 Source: Mintel Consumer Data 2017
Veganism is strong among young adults…
6
12 12
5
10
8
6
9
8
5
8
9
7
10
11
All % 16-24%
25-34%
All % 16-24%
25-34%
All % 16-24%
25-34%
All % 16-24%
25-34%
All % 16-24%
25-34%
France Germany Italy Spain Poland
‘I am a vegan’, Q1-2017
11 Source: Mintel Consumer Data 2017
But many more avoid or reduce dairy consumption
24
27
31
16
22 21
30 30
35
22
25 24
19 21
19
All % 16-24%
25-34%
All % 16-24%
25-34%
All % 16-24%
25-34%
All % 16-24%
25-34%
All % 16-24%
25-34%
France Germany Italy Spain Poland
‘I am actively reducing my consumption of, or avoiding, dairy’, Q1-2017
12 Source: Mintel Consumer Data 2016
Non-dairy yogurts are widely seen as healthy & tasty
29
38
17
31 30
36
30
41
22
29 31
38
24
39
31
27
34
42
26 29
All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 %
France Germany Italy Spain Poland
Non-dairy yogurts are healthier than dairy yogurts
Non-dairy yogurts are as tasty as dairy yogurts
13 Source: Mintel Consumer Data 2017
Plant-based milks score well on health, less so on taste
28
34
19
32
24 24
32
38
24
28
16
23
12
18
15
18 18 20
13
19
All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 %
France Germany Italy Spain Poland
Plant-based milk is healthier for you than dairy milk
I prefer the taste of plant-based milk to dairy milk
14 Source: Mintel Consumer Data 2017
Lactose-free dairy is being overtaken by plant-based
7
17 16
11
16
19 18
25
19
13
10
12
20
24
19
7
11 10
Lactose-free cow's milk Soy milk Other plant-based milk
France - All % Germany - All % Italy - All % Poland - All % Spain - All % UK - All %
‘Have personally used…’, Q1-2017
15 Source: Mintel Consumer Data 2017
It’s all about flexitarianism…
29
38
27
43
40
37
30
34
45
55
All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 % All % 16-24 %
France Germany Italy Spain Poland
‘I would be interested in trying dairy milk that is
blended with plant-based milk’, Q1-2017
16
Brands market around three key platforms
Health Taste Ethics
Ripple Original Plant Based Milk,
USA, made from yellow peas high
in protein, rich in vitamins and
minerals
Fresh Market Unsweetened
Vanilla Almond Drink, USA, a
naturally nutritional alternative
rich in antioxidants and calcium
Lima Organic Mocha Flavoured
Rice Drink, Germany, made
with a delicious combination of
roasted cereals & chicory
Provamel Organic Rice-
Coconut Milk, France, CO2
neutral production process
Kite Hill Artisan Almond Milk
Yogurt, USA, said to be better
for the environment
Alpro Go On Plain Soy Yogurt,
Europe, features a lovely fresh
taste
17
Alpro (soy-based) yogurts lead top-selling new products
Alpro Natur with Coconut /
Almonds Alpro Go On
Said to have a silky texture and a refreshing
coconut flavour.
Launched May 2015, two varieties sold
€6.6m in first year; also a hit in other
European markets
Targets high protein snacking and indulgence,
with a thick and smooth texture, ‘lovely fresh
taste’, added calcium and vitamins
Three SKUs in Germany sold nearly €6m in
first year
Source: Mintel GNPD IRIS
18
Boom in coconut milk yogurts, mostly from specialist players
Whollees (Germany),
Harvest Moon Coconut Milk
Yogurt, also sold in Austria,
Netherlands, Switzerland,
Portugal
The Coconut Collaborative
Coconut Milk Dessert. made
with the milk from one
whole coconut, selling well in
Germany and France, also
now in Netherlands and Austria
as well as the UK
Lucy Wagner Foods’ Pudology
Yogs Coconut Yogurt,
“beautifully indulgent and
delicious” (UK)
19
50%
17%
12% 9%
1%
5%
0% 0%
34%
18%
15% 13%
4% 2% 2% 2%
Soy Rice Almond Oats Coconut Hazelnut Cashew Nut Quinoa
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 to date
• Although numbers of new products are up, use of soy is in decline
• Almond, oats, coconut are the ingredients showing most growth
Source: Mintel GNPD
Indeed, it’s less and less about soy…
Plant-based yogurt, milk and desserts
NPD in Europe, by ingredient
20
Dairies go vegan…
Molkerei Söbbeke, Germany Emmi, Germany
Organic, vegan, rice desserts, based on rice,
coconut milk, lupine flour and other vegan
ingredients
Soja Vit Organic Bircher Muesli, vegan fermented
soybean base with 35% fruit and cereals
21
Non-dairy ice cream next to boom?
Ben & Jerry’s a tipping point?
• USA, Ben & Jerry's Non-Dairy
Frozen Dessert made with
almond milk.
• Non-GMO ingredients, made
with Fairtrade sugar, cocoa and
vanilla, suitable for vegans.
• Launched in February 2016,
sales of c. $35m in first year,
across 4 varieties
Source: Mintel GNPD IRIS
22
Conclusions & points for the future
Long-term success means moving on from the substitute
image and accentuating the tastiness, texture and intrinsic
benefits of plant-based ingredients
Don’t be just a
substitute
Appeal to consumers who also eat meat or dairy – future
growth is among “flexitarians”, rather than consumers who
opt for 100% vegetarian or vegan diets.
Appeal to
flexitarians
In the mainstream, taste and price are always the key factors
that determine purchase. Taste/quality
Smaller, specialist players provide real differentiation and
‘romance’ the (Millennial) consumer
But look out for the major players…
Innovation & the
entrepreneurial
spirit
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The preference for natural, simple
and flexible diets will drive further
expansion of vegetarian, vegan and
other plant-focused formulations
A Mintel 2017 Food & Drink Trend
mintel.com
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David Jago
Director, Innovation & Insight
+44 20 3416 4266
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