Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Future of Retail How customers are changing
帕特里克▪迪克森 Global Change Ltd 主席
Global Outlook -‐ and Bulgaria Retail
• Global economy never stopped growingWGP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
Bulgaria GDP 1980-‐2013+
• Click to edit Master text styles
• Click to edit Master text styles
Vietnam GDP 1985-‐2011
>40% WDP by 2015 Asia powering growth
� IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
•
$2.3 trillion US + $85bn per month
Expect INFLATION
$3.4 trillion
Reserves
Text
One word will drive Future
Future retail is about
EMOTION
Customer
Focus
Time Savers
22
SMARTCall-‐Centres
Most call-‐centresslow, blind and
deaf(single screen -‐ no social media)
Mega Chains
Expect rapid growth of large retail chains in Bulgaria -‐ new outlets
Expect 35% growth in consumer electronics 2013-‐2017 in Bulgaria
HUGEMALLS
Expect rapid growth of large Shopping Malls in Bulgaria
Ultra Premium
And decline of smaller shops in tradi]onal streets
LeisureRetailing
Retail Theatre
Niche Trader
BrandBusters
Brandsin Brands
RETAILJourneys
Guide the Experience
SELFSERVICE
OlderBuyers
Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
1 in 3 Bulgarians over 65 by 2050Only 50% population working ageFastest rate of ageing in the world
75% of all US and UK wealth owned by those over 65 -‐ mostly women
OlderMoney
Rest -‐ Reading
OnlineBoom
e-‐commerce hit $1 trillion in 2012 e-‐marketer
Bulgaria Greece RomaniaInternet Use1990-‐201281% of 16-24 year olds use web >2 times a week
8% of 65-74 year olds use the web9% population made internet purchases in 2012
Increase of 2.5% in 12 months
What people in Bulgaria buy online1. Clothes/sports goods: 64%2. Travel and holiday accommodation: 31%3. Books/magazines/newspapers or e-learning material: 26%4. Household goods: 21%5. Tickets for events: 15%6. Food or groceries: 11%7. Electronic equipment: 11%8. Computer/software and upgrades (including games): 7%9. Films/music: 7% 10. Computer hardware: 4%11. Shares/financial services/insurance: 1%
Price Comparison
Italy: 58% increase in aggregator sales of policies in first 6
months of 2013 v 2012
MobileMarke]ng
•
TabletsBoom
MobileMORE THAN A CHANNEL
Bulgaria Smartphone sales up 24% in 20121 billion smartphone sales in 2013 globally
87
Loca]on Marke]ngis next
BIG THING
From Invasive to Insight
Hype toRevela]on
Mobile“On-time, anyhow, anywhere”
Reduce customer support costsBoost cross-sell / up-sell (works well)Easier policy changes and renewals
Policy alerts / progress on claimsIntegrated product offersFusion with social media
33% in UK don’t watch live TV
InformationRevelation
1 trillionpages
a month
Most web buyers now influenced by social media
"Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“
Madrid May 20, 2013
This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value.
“Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“
Paris April 11, 2013
NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.
74 million users a month
MobilePayment
106
Wireless Payment Cash costs EU60bn pa
> 200 million mobile payments> 70% in Africa > $160bn
108
2m businesses use SQUARE in US
Square Daily Volumes soon handling 7000 Starbucks outlets
• Kenya -‐ 17m customers• $9bn pa -‐ >33% GDP
•
1.7bn users unbanked
113
• In UK alone....• Transactions >$1trillion pa • Credit card debt >$100bn• Average card interest rate
16%• 2% commissions worth $18bn
Payments Doorway
Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model
2010 2013 2015
TelcoBanks
FusionOn-‐Off line
SALESOnline / physical
worlds become oneBuy online - deliver to store.
Buy store - deliver at home. Go to store, research and order
online etc.
Home Delivery
Over 4000 road hauliers in EU
SPEEDto Market
30 minutes to pick, pack and send
30 minutes to pick, pack and send
WirelessWarehousing
Gold standard:10am orders for 3pm Delivery
10am orders for 3pm Delivery
Internet of Things
A6 – 85 door components50,000 product combinaCons
1.5m components in supply chain
BIGDATA
90% all global data generated in last 2 years
Big Data
Big Data means shift from
Marketing to Creative Advice
• Home• Work• Online• Offline• Sales• Entertain• Phone• Mobile• Chat
ONECUSTOMER
•Individuals•Family•Community•Wide World
Bejer Retail Future
Working Together
