Low Carbon Scenarios for India
P.R. Shukla
Indian Institute of Management
Ahmedabad, India
Presented in the “LCS•RNet 1st Annual Researchers Meeting’
Bologna, Italy, October 12-13, 2009
LCS: Alternate Visions
and Approaches
LCS: Conventional Climate Centric Vision & Approach
Carbon Market
Technologies
Energy Resources
Universal Participation
Market Structure/ Rules
Allocation of Rights
Modify Preferences
Competition/ Trade
Energy-Mix Mandates
Tech Transfer
Cooperative R&D
Remove Market Barriers
TargetInterventionsDriversAim
Forecasting
Stabilization
at Minimum
GDP Loss
Global
Greenhouse Gas
Concentration
Stabilization
Low
Carbon
Society
Innovations
Co-benefits
Sustainability
Technological
Social/Institutional
Management
Modify Preferences
Avoid Lock-ins
Long-term Vision
Win/Win Options
Shared Costs/Risks
Aligning Markets
National
Socio-economic
Objectives
and Targets
Global
Climate Change
Objectives
and Targets
TargetsInterventionsDriversAim
Back-casting
LCS: Sustainability Vision & Approach
LCS Scenarios and Modeling Framework
INDIA: National Climate Change Action Plan
8 National Missions:
1. Solar Energy (100 MW PV/yr; 1000 MW Thermal by 2017)
2. Enhanced energy efficiency (10000 MW saving by 2012)
3. Sustainable habitat
4. Water Sector (20% water use efficiency improvement)
5. Sustaining the Himalayan eco-system
6. A “Green India” (6 Mil. Hectare afforestation; Forest cover from 23 to 33%)
7. Sustainable agriculture
8. Strategic knowledge for climate change
• Focus on:
– Mainstreaming climate actions in development plans/policies/processes
– Behavioral Changes, Innovations, Co-benefits and Co-operation
– Up-front decisions to avoid long-term lock-ins
• Sustaining Capital Stocks– Natural, Man-made, Human & Social
• Use Systems Approach for Analysis– Integration, Holistic/Long-term Vision, Dynamic Assessment
• Interventions to influence Drivers of Change– Assess and influence Processes
– Institutions (to reduce transaction costs/risks and to sustain change)
• Shaping Stakeholder and Societal Preferences– Information, Awareness, Debates to arrived at informed choices
LCS Scenarios with Sustainability
LCS Scenarios
Conventional Sustainability
LCS Scenarios with
Stabilization Targets
Baseline
Stabilization
Targets
Scenarios
Geography
Level
2.68.0 6.0
Radiative Forcing
W/m2
Global Regional National
4.5 2.68.0 6.5 4.5
Global Global Regional NationalGlobalLocal Local
2OC
3OC
Integrated Modeling Framework
DATABASES
-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints
AIM CGE Model
ANSWER-MARKAL
Model
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEn
d U
se D
eman
d
Mo
del
AIM
Strateg
ic Datab
ase(S
DB
)
Integrated Modelling Framework
DATABASES
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEn
d U
se D
ema
nd
M
od
el
AIM
Stra
tegic D
ata
ba
se(S
DB
)
DATABASES
Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment
AIM CGE/GCAM
ANSWER-MARKAL
Model
AIM ExSSEn
d U
se D
ema
nd
Mo
del
AIM
(SD
B)
(Stra
teg
ic D
ata
ba
se
)
Integrated Modeling Framework
LCS Transition in INDIA: Analysis
Global & National Analysis: GCAM & AIM/CGE
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Mto
e
Base Case Scenario: INDIA
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
Unconventional oil
Per Capita Emissions and GDP
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Per
Capita G
DP
in 2
005 U
SD
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Per
Capita E
mis
sio
ns in ton c
arb
on
GDP- India China OECD Emissions- India China OECD
BaU
INDIA: Carbon Emissions GDP Loss for India
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
%
450 ppmv (2 deg C)
550 ppmv (3 deg C)
Energy in 450 ppmv Scenario: INDIA
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Mto
e
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
Unconventional oil
Energy in 550 ppmv Scenario: INDIA
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Mto
e
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
Unconventional oil
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Mto
e
Energy in Base Case Scenario: INDIA
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
Unconventional oil
Global & National Analysis: GCAM & AIM/CGE
National Analysis: MARKAL & End-Use Models
From 2005-2050:
Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%
Annual Population Growth: 0.9%
Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005
Economy 23 times
Population 1.56 times
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mto
e
Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass
Energy
Base Scenario: Growth of Economy and Population
Carbon Emissions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mill
ion T
on C
O2
LCS Transitions: 550 ppmv (3OC)
LCS with Lower Carbon Prices
Base Case
Conventional
Society
Sustainable Society
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2020 2030 2040
Pri
ce C
O2 (
US
$/t
CO
2)
2050
CO2 Price
Additional Renewable Energy(in Sustainability Scenario over Base Case)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2020 2030 2040 2050
Incr
ease
ov
er B
ase
Case
(M
toe)
Hydro
Solar
Wind
Bio-energy
Air Quality Co-benefits
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Millio
n t
SO
2
Base Case
Sustainable Development +
Low Carbon Tax
Conventional Path +
High Carbon Price
Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
100 200 400 800 1600 2400
GDP Per Capita 2000 = 100
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(M
illi
on
TC
O2
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
SO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(M
illi
on
TS
O2
)
CO2 Emissions in BAU
LCS CO2 Emissions
SO2 Emissions in BAU
Emissions and Income
Low Carbon Cities
Extended Snapshot (ExSS) Model
Macro -economy and Industry Module
Labor Module
Population and Household Number Module
Time -use and Consumption Module
Transport Module
Commercial Building Module
Energy Demand & GHG Emissions Module
GHG emissions
Labor demand
Wage
Number of workers
Average working time
PopulationPrivate
consumption
Number of household
Output
Passenger and freight transport demand
Floor area of commercial buildings
Energy demand
Income
•Export
•Import ratio
•Commuting OD •Labor participation ratio
•Demographic composition
•Average household size
•Breakdown of consumption
•Floor area per output
•Population distribution
•Trip per parson
•Transport distance
•Modal share
•Energy service demand generation unit•Energy efficiency•Fuel share•Emission factor
•Government expenditure
•Labor productivity
Exogenous variables and parameters
Main endogenous variables
Module
InputFlow of endogenous variables
AMC
(Old
boundary)
AMC
(New
boundary)
ExSS Model: Low Carbon Transition in Ahmedabad City
Ahmedabad (2009)
Pop 5.5 Mil
Passenger Transport Sector
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Ind
ex 2
00
5 =
1
Passenger
Demand
Energy
DemandGHG
Emissions
2005 2035 BAU 2035 LCS
Industry Sector
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Ind
ex 2
00
5 =
1
Output (Bn INR) Energy Demand GHG Emissions
2005 2035 BAU 2035 CM
10.2
61.1
20.4
8.6
15.4
6.3
2.44.3
3.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCSG
HG
Em
iss
ion
s/r
ed
uc
tio
ns
(m
t-C
02
)
Transport Efficiency
Industry EfficiencyBuilding Efficiency
Fuel Switch
Energy Service demand
Coal + CCS
Emissions
Mitigation
Contributions
67%
• Articulate and Assess Alternate Pathways– Development vision matters to LCS transition
• Align development and climate actions– Mainstreaming climate actions in development plans and processes
– Avoid lock-ins into high emissions paths
– Bottom-up actions coordinated with top-down vision and policies
• ‘Paradigm Shift towards ‘Co-benefits’ and ‘Co-operation’:
– Co-benefits reduces welfare losses
– Deliver LCS at Low Carbon Price
• Even in LCS, adaptation actions will be needed, but costs
and risks shall be much lower
• LCS Research network is vital for capacity building for
integrated assessment of climate change
Conclusions: LCS Research Focus
Thank you