Low Carbon Scenarios for India

P.R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management

Ahmedabad, India

Presented in the “LCS•RNet 1st Annual Researchers Meeting’

Bologna, Italy, October 12-13, 2009

LCS: Alternate Visions

and Approaches

LCS: Conventional Climate Centric Vision & Approach

Carbon Market

Technologies

Energy Resources

Universal Participation

Market Structure/ Rules

Allocation of Rights

Modify Preferences

Competition/ Trade

Energy-Mix Mandates

Tech Transfer

Cooperative R&D

Remove Market Barriers

TargetInterventionsDriversAim

Forecasting

Stabilization

at Minimum

GDP Loss

Global

Greenhouse Gas

Concentration

Stabilization

Low

Carbon

Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability

Technological

Social/Institutional

Management

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock-ins

Long-term Vision

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

National

Socio-economic

Objectives

and Targets

Global

Climate Change

Objectives

and Targets

TargetsInterventionsDriversAim

Back-casting

LCS: Sustainability Vision & Approach

LCS Scenarios and Modeling Framework

INDIA: National Climate Change Action Plan

8 National Missions:

1. Solar Energy (100 MW PV/yr; 1000 MW Thermal by 2017)

2. Enhanced energy efficiency (10000 MW saving by 2012)

3. Sustainable habitat

4. Water Sector (20% water use efficiency improvement)

5. Sustaining the Himalayan eco-system

6. A “Green India” (6 Mil. Hectare afforestation; Forest cover from 23 to 33%)

7. Sustainable agriculture

8. Strategic knowledge for climate change

• Focus on:

– Mainstreaming climate actions in development plans/policies/processes

– Behavioral Changes, Innovations, Co-benefits and Co-operation

– Up-front decisions to avoid long-term lock-ins

• Sustaining Capital Stocks– Natural, Man-made, Human & Social

• Use Systems Approach for Analysis– Integration, Holistic/Long-term Vision, Dynamic Assessment

• Interventions to influence Drivers of Change– Assess and influence Processes

– Institutions (to reduce transaction costs/risks and to sustain change)

• Shaping Stakeholder and Societal Preferences– Information, Awareness, Debates to arrived at informed choices

LCS Scenarios with Sustainability

LCS Scenarios

Conventional Sustainability

LCS Scenarios with

Stabilization Targets

Baseline

Stabilization

Targets

Scenarios

Geography

Level

2.68.0 6.0

Radiative Forcing

W/m2

Global Regional National

4.5 2.68.0 6.5 4.5

Global Global Regional NationalGlobalLocal Local

2OC

3OC

Integrated Modeling Framework

DATABASES

-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints

AIM CGE Model

ANSWER-MARKAL

Model

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEn

d U

se D

eman

d

Mo

del

AIM

Strateg

ic Datab

ase(S

DB

)

Integrated Modelling Framework

DATABASES

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEn

d U

se D

ema

nd

M

od

el

AIM

Stra

tegic D

ata

ba

se(S

DB

)

DATABASES

Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment

AIM CGE/GCAM

ANSWER-MARKAL

Model

AIM ExSSEn

d U

se D

ema

nd

Mo

del

AIM

(SD

B)

(Stra

teg

ic D

ata

ba

se

)

Integrated Modeling Framework

LCS Transition in INDIA: Analysis

Global & National Analysis: GCAM & AIM/CGE

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mto

e

Base Case Scenario: INDIA

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewable

Unconventional oil

Per Capita Emissions and GDP

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Per

Capita G

DP

in 2

005 U

SD

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

Per

Capita E

mis

sio

ns in ton c

arb

on

GDP- India China OECD Emissions- India China OECD

BaU

INDIA: Carbon Emissions GDP Loss for India

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

%

450 ppmv (2 deg C)

550 ppmv (3 deg C)

Energy in 450 ppmv Scenario: INDIA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mto

e

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewable

Unconventional oil

Energy in 550 ppmv Scenario: INDIA

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Mto

e

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewable

Unconventional oil

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Mto

e

Energy in Base Case Scenario: INDIA

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewable

Unconventional oil

Global & National Analysis: GCAM & AIM/CGE

National Analysis: MARKAL & End-Use Models

From 2005-2050:

Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%

Annual Population Growth: 0.9%

Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005

Economy 23 times

Population 1.56 times

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mto

e

Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass

Energy

Base Scenario: Growth of Economy and Population

Carbon Emissions

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion T

on C

O2

LCS Transitions: 550 ppmv (3OC)

LCS with Lower Carbon Prices

Base Case

Conventional

Society

Sustainable Society

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2020 2030 2040

Pri

ce C

O2 (

US

$/t

CO

2)

2050

CO2 Price

Additional Renewable Energy(in Sustainability Scenario over Base Case)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2020 2030 2040 2050

Incr

ease

ov

er B

ase

Case

(M

toe)

Hydro

Solar

Wind

Bio-energy

Air Quality Co-benefits

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Millio

n t

SO

2

Base Case

Sustainable Development +

Low Carbon Tax

Conventional Path +

High Carbon Price

Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

100 200 400 800 1600 2400

GDP Per Capita 2000 = 100

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(M

illi

on

TC

O2

)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

SO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(M

illi

on

TS

O2

)

CO2 Emissions in BAU

LCS CO2 Emissions

SO2 Emissions in BAU

Emissions and Income

Low Carbon Cities

Extended Snapshot (ExSS) Model

Macro -economy and Industry Module

Labor Module

Population and Household Number Module

Time -use and Consumption Module

Transport Module

Commercial Building Module

Energy Demand & GHG Emissions Module

GHG emissions

Labor demand

Wage

Number of workers

Average working time

PopulationPrivate

consumption

Number of household

Output

Passenger and freight transport demand

Floor area of commercial buildings

Energy demand

Income

•Export

•Import ratio

•Commuting OD •Labor participation ratio

•Demographic composition

•Average household size

•Breakdown of consumption

•Floor area per output

•Population distribution

•Trip per parson

•Transport distance

•Modal share

•Energy service demand generation unit•Energy efficiency•Fuel share•Emission factor

•Government expenditure

•Labor productivity

Exogenous variables and parameters

Main endogenous variables

Module

InputFlow of endogenous variables

AMC

(Old

boundary)

AMC

(New

boundary)

ExSS Model: Low Carbon Transition in Ahmedabad City

Ahmedabad (2009)

Pop 5.5 Mil

Passenger Transport Sector

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Ind

ex 2

00

5 =

1

Passenger

Demand

Energy

DemandGHG

Emissions

2005 2035 BAU 2035 LCS

Industry Sector

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Ind

ex 2

00

5 =

1

Output (Bn INR) Energy Demand GHG Emissions

2005 2035 BAU 2035 CM

10.2

61.1

20.4

8.6

15.4

6.3

2.44.3

3.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCSG

HG

Em

iss

ion

s/r

ed

uc

tio

ns

(m

t-C

02

)

Transport Efficiency

Industry EfficiencyBuilding Efficiency

Fuel Switch

Energy Service demand

Coal + CCS

Emissions

Mitigation

Contributions

67%

• Articulate and Assess Alternate Pathways– Development vision matters to LCS transition

• Align development and climate actions– Mainstreaming climate actions in development plans and processes

– Avoid lock-ins into high emissions paths

– Bottom-up actions coordinated with top-down vision and policies

• ‘Paradigm Shift towards ‘Co-benefits’ and ‘Co-operation’:

– Co-benefits reduces welfare losses

– Deliver LCS at Low Carbon Price

• Even in LCS, adaptation actions will be needed, but costs

and risks shall be much lower

• LCS Research network is vital for capacity building for

integrated assessment of climate change

Conclusions: LCS Research Focus

Thank you