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Qatar 2022 Business Opportunities
October 2012
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Disclaimer
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Table of Contents
I. Qatars Economic Overview
II. Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives
III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending
3
IV. Beneficiaries
V. South Africa World Cup 2010
VI. Brazil World Cup 2014
VII. Summary
VIII. Appendix
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Qatars Economic Overview
With Qatar hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup, these forecasts will probably be revised upwards
4
220294
403358
463
632
702752 807
880
12.2%
17.3%
11.7%
9.5%
14.0% 14.1%
6.5%
5.8% 5.9% 6.1%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%18%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800900
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
GDPGrowth
GDP(QRbn)
GDP (QR bn, nominal) Real GDP Growth
Qatar GDP Development (2006-2015F) Population and GDP per Capita
Note: GDP at current prices; Source: EIU (September 2012), Press Research
1.11.3
1.6 1.6 1.6 1.71.8
2.02.2
2.4
59.4 60.4
71.3
60.3
77.8
101.6 105.1 104.0 102.3 102.0
0
20
40
60
80
100120
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.53.0
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
GDPperCapita(USD
000)
Population(m)
Population (m) GDP per Capita (US$ '000)
Qatar's national economy is delivering an impressive buoyant performance in the midst of sluggish global conditions.
GDP is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% between 2011 - 2015.
Growth will benefit from high levels of investment in infrastructure, especially as work begins on projects related to the World
Cup. Population growth at an annual average of ~9% will support domestic demand. The current-account surplus, which is driven by the trade surplus, will remain substantial throughout 2012-2016 averaging 27.0%
of GDP a year.
Third largest proven gas reserves (15% of worlds total); with current LNG production of 77 million tons per year.
Qatars real economy is expected to be boosted by growing LNG exports and demand for natural gas is expected to quadruplebetween 2011 and 2020.
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Table of Contents
I. Qatars Economic Overview
II. Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives
III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending
5
IV. Beneficiaries
V. South Africa World Cup 2010
VI. Brazil World Cup 2014
VII. Summary
VIII. Appendix
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Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives
Investment proposals will have a multiplier effect on several other industries and lead to increaseddiversification of Qatars hydro-carbon focused economy.
6
Concentration of key event facilities and venues within a compact area within a 60 km radius
Seven host cities and 12 stadiums: Renovation of three stadiums and construction of nine newstadiums.
Stadiums equipped with cooling systems usingclean renewable energy resources to achieve thefirst completely carbon-neutral World Cup.
Modular sections of the stadiums used to construct 22 stadiums around the world in developingcountries post FIFA 2022 World Cup.
Team base camp hotels, etc: 64 proposed, of which 54 to be constructed.
Accommodation: 240 different propertiesproposed (90,000 rooms), mainly in four star category.
100 properties existing, 140 planned to be constructed (55,000 rooms).
Four-line metro network (340 kilometers length) including a line running from the New DohaInternational Airport to the centre of Doha.
Rail freight linebetween Ras Laffan port to Mesaieed port, via Doha, and then onto Saudi Arabiaand Bahrain.
New portto be completed by 2014 with subsequent phases due to be finished by 2030.
New airport currently under construction (expected first phase completion in 2012, second phase in2017).
The construction of Qatar-Bahrain causeway and road network improvements.
Stadiums(USD 3bn)
Infrastructure(USD 44bn)
Accommodation(USD 12.4bn)
Sources: Equity Research; FIFA
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Table of Contents
I. Qatars Economic Overview
II. Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives
III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending
7
IV. Beneficiaries
V.South Africa World Cup 2010
VI. Brazil World Cup 2014
VII. Summary
VIII. Appendix
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Breakdown and Timeline of Spending
Actual Spending likely to exceed Projected Amounts
8
Sources: Equity Research; FIFA
Yearly Breakdown
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1. Stadiums (4.6%) 3.0
Construction of 9 New Stadiums 2011-2021
Renovation of 3 Stadiums 2012-2020
2. Transportation (30.8%) 20.0
National Railway (Qatar- Bahrain) 2011-2019
National Railway (Qatar- KSA) 2011-2017
Metro System 2011-2020
3. Roads (36.9%) 24.0
Qatar Bahrain MotorWay 4.0 2011-2015
Road Systems 20.0 2011-2016
4. Accommodation (19.1%) 12.4
140 additional properties 2011-2022
5. FIFA (0.9%) 0.6
FIFA confederation 2021 and 2022 2011-2022
6. Others (7.7%) 5.0
New Doha Port 2011-2030
Doha Airport (Remaining Work) Current-2017
Doha Bay Crossing N/A
Media Facilities N/A
Total Expenditures 65.0
Phase 1 Phase 2
Phase 1 Phase 2
ItemCost
(USD bn)Timeline
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Breakdown and Timeline of Spending (Contd)
Spending by Type (Total USD 65bn)
Location of Stadium Proposed Metro Rail Map
Sources: Official Qatar 2022 Bid Website; Equity Research
Transportation
68%
Accommodation19%
Stadiums
4%
FIFA
1%
Others
8%
9
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Breakdown and Timeline of Spending (Contd)
>200 Projects announced to be initiated
Source: Press Research; QFIB
Detailed information not yet available since decision-making is ongoingHealthcare and Education are the key sectors with 62 out of 200 awarded projects
35 Healthcare projects
27 Education projects
10Social Security linked projects
11Environment linked projects
>200 Projects announced
for the 1st quarter of 2011
>95 projects in other sectors
22 Primary Infrastructure Development projects(estimated value ~ USD 50bn)
10
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Table of Contents
I. Qatars Economic Overview Pre-Bid Win
II. Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives
III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending
11
IV. Beneficiaries
V. South Africa World Cup 2010
VI. Brazil World Cup 2014
VII. Summary
VIII. Appendix
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Beneficiaries
Equity Research indicates the following sectors to benefit
Source: Equity Research; Press Research
Banks: Financing of infrastructure projects
Education: Increase in population; 27 projects announced
Transport & Logistics: ~USD 20bn direct investments
Construction/ Development: ~USD 44bn direct investments
Healthcare: Increase in population; 35 projects announced
Power: Increased power needs due to increase in population and construction activity
SectorstoBenefit
Telecom: Increase in population Ensure adequate infrastructure
Other Building Material: Benefiting from increased construction activity
Steel/ Petrochemicals: Benefiting from increased construction activity
12
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Table of Contents
I. Qatars Economic Overview
II. Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives
III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending
13
IV. Beneficiaries
V. South Africa World Cup 2010
VI. Brazil World Cup 2014
VII. Summary
VIII. Appendix
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South Africa World Cup 2010Overview South Africa was named to host the 2010 FIFA World Cup in May 2004.
Five new stadiums were built for the tournament, and five of the existing venues were upgraded.
National governments ZAR 25bn (USD 3.6bn) direct investment in infrastructure in the World Cup is part of a muchlarger spending programme between 2006 and 2010.
Government estimated to have invested more than ZAR 600bn (USD 87bn) in the countrys infrastructure from railfreight services and energy production, to communications, airports and ports of entry.
Initiatives
South Africa GDP Development (2003-2015F) World Cup Spending by Type (Total USD 3.6bn)
Transport
35%
Stadiums
30%
Ports of Entry
Infrastructure10%
Safety and Security
4%
Others
21%
Source: FIFA
168 219 247 261 286 277 287 354 366 384 405 429 455
2.9%
4.6%
5.3%5.6% 5.5%
3.7%
-1.8%
3.0%3.5%
3.9%4.2%4.4%
4.5%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
50100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
GDPGrowth
GDP(USDbn)
GDP (USD bn, nominal) Real GDP Growth
BidAward
Source: IMF
14
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South Africa World Cup 2010GDP Contribution by Industry Comparison Qatar/South Africa (2009)
South Africa GDP Composition (2009)Qatar GDP Composition (2009)
Source: Statistics South AfricaSource: Qatar Statistics Authority
9.1%
15.7%
21.5%
15.2%
4.0%
13.5%
9.1%
2.8%6.2%2.9%
Mining and Quarrying (9.1%)
Government Services (15.7%)
Finance and Insurance (21.5%)
Manufacturing (15.2%)
Construction (4.0%)
Retail (13.5%)
Transport and Communication (9.1%)
Electricity and Water (2.8%)
Personal Services (6.2%)
Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry (2.9%)
44.9%
12.1%
11.8%
7.7%
7.0%
6.5%
6.2%
1.1%1.6%
0.1%
Mining and Quarrying (including Oil and Gas) (44.9%)
Government Services (12.1%)
Finance and Insurance (11.8%)
Manufacturing (7.7%)
Construction (7.0%)
Retail (6.5%)
Transport and Communications (6.2%)
Electricity and Water (1.1%)
Personal Services (1.6%)
Agriculture and Fishing (0.1%)
15
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South Africa World Cup 2010GDP Contribution by Industry (7-year period)
GDP Contribution by Industry Development since Bid Award
Source: Statistics South Africa
Manufacturing suffered the most between 2003-2009, which could be due to the Economic Crisis.Major gains in Construction (+1.7%), Mining/Quarrying (+1.7%) and Finance/Real Estate (+1.4%).
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Manufacturing (-4.2%)
Transport and communication (-0.6%)
Agriculture, fishing and forestry (-0.5%)
Retail (-0.2%)
Personal Services (-0.1%)
Electricity and Water (+0.2%)
Government Services (+0.6%)
Finance and Insurance (+1.4%)
Mining and Quarrying (+1.7%)
Construction (+1.7%)
16
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South Africa World Cup 2010 -Sectors to Benefit
Official Reports indicate the following sectors in South Africa to benefit from the South Africa World Cup
Source: FIFA
Construction
Healthcare
Information and Communication Technology
Safety and SecuritySectors to Benefit
Sports and Recreation
Tourism and Hospitality
Arts and Culture
17
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Table of Contents
I. Qatars Economic Overview
II. Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives
III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending
18
IV. Who will Benefit?
V. South Africa World Cup 2010
VI. Brazil World Cup 2014
VII. Summary
VIII. Appendix
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Media
29%
Stadiums
21%Accommodation
14%
Reurbanization
13%
Transport
12%
Safety
7%
Others
4%
1,093 1,366 1,636 1,574 2,024 2,193 2,327 2,471 2,626 2,789
4.0%
6.1%5.1%
-0.2%
7.5%
4.1%4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
50
550
1,050
1,550
2,050
2,550
3,050
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
GDPGrowth
GDP(USDbn)
GDP (USD bn, nominal) Real GDP Growth
Brazil World Cup 2014Overview Brazil was awarded to host the 2014 FIFA World Cup in October 2007.
Three new stadiums are going to be built for the tournament and nine of the existing venues will be renovated.
In order to ensure an adequate infrastructure and organization, Brazil will invest BRL 22.46bn (USD 13.33bn) toimprove the countrys infrastructure.
Brazil will revitalize host cities tourism areas as well as the surrounding airport and stadium areas which will cost BRL2.84bn (USD 1.68bn).
Initiatives
Brazil GDP Development (2006-2015F) World Cup Spending by Type (Total USD 13.33bn)
Source: Ernst & Young
BidAward
Source: IMF
19
B il W ld C 14
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44.9%
12.1%
11.8%
7.7%
7.0%
6.5%
6.2%
1.1%0.1%
1.6%
Mining and Quarrying (including Oil and Gas) (44.9%)
Government Services (12.1%)
Finance and Insurance (11.8%)
Manufacturing (7.7%)
Construction (7.0%)
Retail (6.5%)
Transport and Communications (6.2%)
Electricity and Water (1.1%)
Agriculture and Fishing (0.1%)
Personal Services (1.6%)
Brazil World Cup 2014GDP Contribution by Industry Comparison Qatar/Brazil (2009)
Qatar GDP Composition (2009) Brazil GDP Composition (2009)
Source: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and StatisticsSource: Qatar Statistics Authority
1.3%17%
31%
16%
5%
12%
9%
4% 6%
Mining and Quarrying (1.3%)
Government Services (16.7%)
Finance and Insurance (31.3%)
Manufacturing (15.5%)
Construction (5.1%)
Retail (11.9%)
Transport and Communications (8.7%)
Gas, electricity and water (3.5%)
Agriculture and Fishing (6.1%)
20
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Brazil Sectors to Benefit
Official Releases indicate the following sectors in Brazil to benefit from the World Cup
Source: Ernst & Young
Main Sectors Others Sectors benefiting on a smaller scale
21
Construction
Food and Beverages
Finance and Insurance
Electricity and Water
Sectors toBenefit
Information Services
Tourism andHospitality
Real Estate Services and Rental
Marketing Education
Retail including Clothing, Accessories and Cosmetics
Agriculture, Farming and Fisheries
Transportation, Warehousing and Courier Services
Pharmaceuticals
Oil and Natural Gas
Public Administration and Social Security
Maintenance a nd Repair Services
Other non-Metallic Mineral Products
Newspapers, Magazines and CDs
Furniture and Sundry Products
Metal Goods incl. Machinery and Equipment
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Table of Contents
I. Qatars Economic Overview
II. Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives
III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending
22
IV. Beneficiaries
V. South Africa World Cup 2010
VI. Brazil World Cup 2014
VII. Summary
VIII. Appendix
Summary
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SummaryImpact from the successful Qatar 2022 Bid Win
Identify Sectors to benefit from Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup
Estimate underlying demand/supply dynamics
Identify ancillary services and sub-industries to benefit
Focus on sustainable business models which benefit from increased economic activity within Qatar
InvestmentPlanning
Impact on Qatars Development
Current reports indicate a major push for developments and population growth within Qatar.
Numerous projects will be realized that werent viable to date. The Governments willingness to support Qatars development ahead of FIFA 2022 World Cup presents tremendous
opportunities for investors.
Sectors to Benefit
The immediate sectors to benefit will be Infrastructure (Transport &Logistics)and Construction/Development.
Several further sectors will benefit due to ancillary development needs (Healthcare, Financial Sector, Education, Power).
Multiplier effects and increase in population will magnify the economic impact on Qatars GDP in the upcoming years.
Analysis of South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014 World Cups confirm these findings. The direct economic impact can hardly be
compared due to different GDP dynamics of Qatar vs. South Africa/Brazil.
Investors Strategic Plan
Page 23Page 23
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Table of Contents
I. Qatars Economic Overview
II. Three Pillars of Announced FIFA 2022 Investment Initiatives
III. Breakdown and Timeline of Spending
24
IV. Beneficiaries
V. South Africa World Cup 2010
VI. Brazil World Cup 2014
VII. Summary
VIII. Appendix
Appendix
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AppendixQatar Major Ongoing Projects
Page 25Page 25
25
Source: Meed, Zawya
Qatari Power and Water Contracts
Project Name Value (USDm)
Kahramaa - Ras Laffan IWPP Expansion 3,000
Ashghal - Doha North Sewage Project 2,500
Kahramaa - Doha Water Security Mega Reservoirs 2,000
Kahramaa - South Doha D IWPP 2,000
Kahramaa - Qatar Power Transmission System Expansion - Phase IX 1,000
Kahramaa - Solar Power Plant 1,000
Ashghal - Doha North Sewage Project - Phase 2 489
Ashghal - Doha North Sewage Project - Phase 4 360
Kahr amaa - Qat ar Pow er Tr ansmission Sy st em Expansion - Phase X - St age 1 269
KAHRAMAA - Al Duhail and Umm Qarn Reservoirs 210
Ashghal - Abu Hamour Southern Outfall Tunnel 200
Ashghal - Doha South Wastewater Treatment Plant - Phase II 150
Ashghal - Doha and Rayy an Sewerage Pumping Stat ions 111
Ashghal - Ain Khalid Area Trunk and Internal Sewers - Phase 2 110
Kahramaa - South Doha Reservoirs and Associated Pipelines 104
Kahramaa - North Sailiyah and Vicinity Water Distribution 88
Ashghal - Al Khor Sewerage Network Expansion - Package 2 82
Kahramaa - Al Wukair RPS and Associated Pipelines 68
Kahramaa - Al Duhail and Umm Qarn New Reservoirs 68
QP - Halul Desalination Plant and Potable Water Storage Tank 60
Kahramaa - 66/11kV New Hitmi and Rayyan Village Substations 50
Appendix
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AppendixQatar Major Ongoing Projects (Contd)
Page 26Page 26
26
Source: Meed, Zawya
Qatari Real Estate Contracts
Project Name Value (USDm)
UDC - The Pearl Qatar 14,000
LREDC - Lusail City 5,500
Msheireb Properties - Msheireb 5,500
Ashghal - 3 Mosques and Imam Houses - Package 11 3,500
Qatar CAA - Space City Establishment 3,300
ADIH - Qatar Entertainment City 3,000
GFH - Energy City Qatar - Phase 1 2,600
UDC - The Pearl Qatar - Viva Bahriya 2,500
Qatar Foundation - Sidra Medical and Research Center 2,300
Barwa Real Estate Company - Ain Khalid Commercial Avenue 1,700
Bawabat Al Shamal - Doha Festival City 1,600
Qatar i Diar - Doha Convention Center and Tower 1,500ADIH - Qatar Entert ainment City - Downtow n 1,500
Barwa Real Estate Company - Barwa City 1,360
Barwa Real Estate Company - Barwa Financial District 1,360
Ashghal - 4 Mosques and Imam Houses - Package 9 1,250
Qatari Diar Real Estate Investment Company - Fox Hills 1,200
GFH - Energy City Qatar - Phase 2 1,000
Barwa Real Estate Company - Barwa Al Baraha 1,000
Qatari Diar - Doha Convention Center and Tower - Convention Center 740
Ezdan - Asia Towers 687Msheireb Properties - Msheireb - Phase 1-b 650
LREDC - Lusail City - Infrastructure - Package 1 642
Ashghal - Hamad Medical City 534
Appendix
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AppendixQatar Major Ongoing Projects (Contd)
Page 27Page 27
27
Source: Meed, Zawya
Qatari Real Estate Contracts (Cont'd)
Project Name Value (USDm)
Qatar ISF - New Camp 430
Ezdan - Wukair Mall 412
QDREIC - Burj Al Marina Hotel 360QDREIC - Sheraton Park 335
The Land Qatar - Perlita Gardens 330
ARTIC - Doha City Center Expansion 325
LREDC - Lusail City - Infrastructure Package 5B 293
Equinox - Northgate Mall 290
Qatar Foundation - Marina Mall 275
QF - Qatar Foundation Central Library 274
LREDC - Lusail City - Underground Car Parks 264
QGIRC - World Trade Center 250Qatar Foundation - New Headquarters 247
QF - West Car Park 225
Alfardan Properties Management - Kempinski Marsa Malaz Hotel 223
Qatar Foundation - North East Underground Park 220
Qatar Foundation - Faculty of Islamic Studies 212
Real Estate Services Group - Shoumoukh Towers 200
Bridge Towers 191
QF - Student Housing Facility 175
UDC - The Pearl Qatar - Porto Arabia 170Tanmiyat - Bin Samikh Tower 137
JIG - Burj Al Rayy an Complex 133
Qatar Foundation - Sidra Residential Compound 130
Appendix
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AppendixQatar Major Ongoing Projects (Contd)
Page 28Page 28
28
Source: Meed, Zawya
Qatari Infrastructure Contracts
Project Name Value (USDm)
Qatar Railways Development Company - Qatar Rail Network Program 42,000
Ashghal - Local Roads and Drainage Programme 13,700
NDIASC - New Doha International Airport 11,000
The New Doha Port Steering Committee - New Doha Port - Phase 1 4,000
Qatar Railways Company (QRail) - Doha Metro Network 3,000
Qat ar Railw ay s Dev elopment Compa ny - Lusa il Light Rail Tr ansit Net wor k 1,800
Ashghal - Local Roads and Drainage Programme - Qatar North Zone 1,800
Qatari Diar - West Bay Automated People Mover - Phase 1 1,400
The New Doha Port Steering Committee - New Doha Port - Phase 2 1,230
Qatar PWA - Doha Bay Crossing 1,000
Ashghal - Al Mael and Bani Hajer Roundabouts 1,000
NDIASC - New Doha International Airport - Concourse C Superstructure 750NDIASC - Expansion of NDIA - Phase 3 750
Ashghal - Lusail Expressway 700
Ashghal - Doha Expressway Package 13 Al Muntazah Street Expansion 650
Ashghal - North Road - Duhail to Al Khawr (Phase 2) 600
Ashghal - Doha Expressway - F Ring Road (Phase XII) 552
NDIASC - New Doha International Airport - Emiri Terminal, Parking Structure and Mosque 549
Ashghal - Doha Expressway Phase 7/ Salwa Road Phase 2 437
NDIASC - New Doha International Airport - Catering Facility 368
Ashghal - Dukhan Highway - Bani Hajer to Shahaniyah (Phase 2) 300Ashghal - Al Ruwais Port 215
Ashghal - Bin Hajr Road Development - Area 51 185
Appendix
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AppendixQatar Major Ongoing Projects (Contd)
Page 29Page 29
29
Source: Meed, Zawya
Announced Stadium Contracts
Project Name Value (USDm)
QFA - Lusail Iconic Stadium 662
QFA - Qatar University Stadium 300
QFA - Education City Stadium 287
QFA - Al-Wakrah Stadium 286
QFA - Al Khor Stadium 251
QFA - Al Shamal Stadium 251
QFA - Sports City Stadium 251
QFA - Umm Salal Stadium 251
QFA - Doha Port Stadium 202
QFA - Al-Gharafa Stadium Expansion 135
QFA - Al-Rayyan Stadium Expansion 135QFA - Khalifa International Stadium Expansion 71
Appendix
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Appe iQatar Projects On Hold
Page 30Page 30
30
Source: Meed, Zawya
Projects On Hold
Project Name Sector Value (USDm)
Barwa Al Khor Company - Barwa Al Khor Real Estate 8,200
QP - Al Shaheen Refinery Oil and Gas 6,000
Al Wa'ab City Real Estate 3,200
QH/Honam - Qatar Petrochemicals Complex (QPCC) Petrochemicals 2,600
ADIH - Qatar Porta Moda Real Estate 1,400
Barwa Al Khor Company - Barwa Al Khor - Phase 1 Real Estate 1,400
QH/Honam - Qat ar Petr ochemicals Complex (QPCC) - Et hane Cr acker Pet rochemicals 1,100
Ashghal - Al Khawr Expressway Infrastructure 800
Qafac - Ammonia & Methanol Expansion Infrastructure 800
Qatari Diar - Doha Convention Center and Tower - Mixed Use Tower Real Estate 760
Dubai Properties Group - Dubai Towers Doha Real Estate 631
Ashghal - North Road - Al Zubara to Ushairej (Phase 4) Infrastructure 500
Qatar Chlorine - Mesaieed Hydrochloric Acid Plant Petrochemicals 300
QP - Qatar Petroleum Complex Real Estate 275
Milaha - Logistics City - Phase 1 Real Estate 275
Qatar National Bank - Headquarters Real Estate 250
IBQ - IBQ Tower Real Estate 137
Darwish Real Estate - Darwish Tower Real Estate 120
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Qatar First Investment BankSuhaim Bin Hamad Street
P.O. Box 28028Doha Qatar
Telephone: +974 4448 3333Facsimile: +974 4448 3560
Email: [email protected]