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20% Wind Energy by 2030:Costs, Benefits and Transmission
20% Wind Energy by 2030:Costs, Benefits and Transmission
Ed DeMeoEd DeMeo
Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Consulting Consulting Services, Inc., Inc.
Ed DeMeoEd DeMeo
Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Consulting Consulting Services, Inc., Inc.
Transmission Policy InstituteNCSL – NWCC
June 17-18, 2010Denver, Colorado
Transmission Policy InstituteNCSL – NWCC
June 17-18, 2010Denver, Colorado
20% Wind Coordinator for 20% Wind Coordinator for USDOE, and CoUSDOE, and Co--Chair of 20% Chair of 20%
Wind Advisory GroupWind Advisory Group
20% Wind Coordinator for 20% Wind Coordinator for USDOE, and CoUSDOE, and Co--Chair of 20% Chair of 20%
Wind Advisory GroupWind Advisory Group
650 327 3090650 327 [email protected]@earthlink.net
Presentation Overview
Background
20% Wind Scenario
Costs
Benefits
Key Challenge
The 20% by 2030 Assessment
Explores one scenario for reaching 20% wind energy by 2030• Compares it to a no-new-wind scenario
Is a feasibility analysis -- not a prediction
Assumes no specific policy support for wind
Is the work of more than 100 individuals involved from 2006 - 2008 (government, industry, utilities, NGOs)
The 20% Wind Energy Scenario
Primary Assumptions:• U.S. electricity consumption grows 39% from
2005 to 2030 -- to 5.8 billion MWh (Source: EIA)
• Wind turbine energy production increasesWind turbine energy production increases about 15% by 2030
• Wind turbine costs decrease about 10% by 2030
• No major breakthroughs in wind technology
The 20% Wind Energy Scenario
Primary Findings:• 20% wind electricity would require about 300
GW (300,000 MW) of wind generation
• Affordable, accessible, abundant wind resources available across the nation
• Modest integration cost with operational cooperation over large regions
• Substantial net positive benefits
• Transmission a challenge
305 GW
20% Wind Scenario
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46 States Have Wind Development by 2030 Under The 20% Wind Scenario
Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of the 20%
Wind Scenario
Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of the 20%
Wind Scenario
Economic Costs of 20% Wind Scenario
2% investmentdifference between
20% Wind and No New Wind
Incremental investment cost of 20% Wind Scenario
Electricity Sector Costs
No New Wind scenario costs over $2 trillion in new investment in net present value terms by 2030
20% Wind Scenario requires 2% more20% Wind Scenario requires 2% more investment ($43 billion in net present value)
50 cents per month on average household bill
20% Wind Scenario Impact on Generation Mix in 2030
Reduces electric utility natural gas consumption by 50% Reduces total natural gas consumption by 11%Natural gas consumer
U.S. electrical energy mix
Natural gas consumer benefits: $86-214 billion*
Reduces electric utility coal consumption by 18% Avoids construction of 80 GW of new coal power plants
Source *: Hand et al., 2008
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
he E
lect
ric S
ecto
ret
ric to
ns)
CO2 Emissions from the Electricity Sector
02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissionsUSCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050
CO
2E
mis
sion
s in
t(m
illio
n m
3
Annual CO2 Emissions Reductions
CO2 emissions reductions by 2030= ~825 million metric tons annually
Could avoid~$98 billion* n C
O2
Em
issi
ons
tric
tons
)
500
600
700
800
900
Could avoid $98 billionCO2 regulation cost
Source *: Hand et al., 2008
Annu
al R
educ
tion
in(m
illio
n m
et
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 20262028 20300
100
200
300
400
Annual Reductions
Wind Power Avoids Other Negative Impacts
Wind power avoids the negative impacts of fossil fuel-based electricity generation:• Air emissions of mercury
or other heavy metals • Emissions from
extracting and transporting fuels
• Lake and streambed acidification
• Mountaintop removal • Production of toxic solid
wastes, ash, or slurry
Wind Power Avoids Other Negative Impacts
NAS-NRC 2009 Study
• First authoritative US study of energy externalities
• Economic impacts of t d th illpremature deaths, illness,
reduced crop yields, etc.
• Coal result: 3.2¢/kWh
• Climate change impacts not included
Significant Water Use Savings
Cumulatively, the 20% Wind Scenario would avoid the consumption of 4 trillion gallons of water through 2030.
The 20% Wind Scenario cuts electric sector water consumption by 17%sector water consumption by 17% in 2030.
Jobs Supported by 20% Wind Scenario
Over 500,000 total jobs would be supported by the wind i d tindustry
180,000 jobs supported directlyin operations, construction, and manufacturing
Manufacturing Jobs Supported by State
4
Incremental direct cost to society$43 billion
50 cents/month/household
Reduction in emissions of greenhouse gasses and avoided carbon regulation costs
825 million tons of CO2
$50 to $145 billion
Summary: Costs& Benefits
Reduction in water consumption8% through 2030
17% in 2030
Jobs supported and other economic benefits
500,000 total with 180,000 direct jobs$2 billion* in local annual revenues
Reduction in nationwide natural gas use and likely savings for all gas consumers
11%$86-214 billion
Sources: DOE, 2008 and Hand et al., 2008 Note: All dollar values except * are in NPV
Key Challenge to Achieving the 20%
Wind Scenario:
Key Challenge to Achieving the 20%
Wind Scenario:
TransmissionTransmissionTransmissionTransmission
Need for New Transmission: Existing and New in 2030 Transmission
Enhancement of electrical transmission system required in all electricity-growth scenariosWind requires more transmission than some othertransmission than some other options as best winds are often in remote locations
Wind’s economic, energy-security and environmental benefits will not be realized
without transmission expansion!
For More Information on 20% Wind Energy:
Report Websites
Federal Government site:http://www1 eere energy gov/http://www1.eere.energy.gov/
windandhydro
Industry site:http://www.20percentwind.org
References
U.S. Department of Energy. 2008. 20% Wind Energy by 2030. DOE/GO-102008-2567. Washington, DC. AWEA. 2008. Wind Power Outlook 2008. Washington, DC.Black & Veatch. 2007. 20% Wind Energy Penetration in the United States: A Technical Analysis of the Energy Resource.Walnut Creek, CAHand et al. 2008. Power System Modeling of 20% Wind-Generated Electricity by 2030. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Conference Paper NREL/CP-500-42794. Golden, CO. National Research Council. 2007. Environmental Impacts of Wind-Energy Projects. Washington DC: National Academies Press.Wiser, R. and M. Bolinger. 2007. Annual Report on U.S. Wind Power Installations, Cost, and Performance Trends: 2006.DOE/GO-102007-2433. Golden, CO: NREL.