PROCESSES, CYCLES, AND POLICIES OF POPULATION
CHANGE
A Population Explosion!
Worldwide Population Trends– Most recent figures
2002: Births & Deaths
– Population growth? Where does it occur? Gender issues
– Population Decline? Europe vs. other countries In a decade...
21st Century Trends?– Base population– Growth Rates: a map
More Trends
What does the map show?– Wide range of growth rates by region– India's growth rate decline– Africa's overall growth rate while still high is being
impacted by the AIDS epidemic – Muslim countries– South Asia– China– South America– Location of slowest growing countries
More Trends
Dimensions of population growth
Exponential not linear growth
Doubling time Lessons from the
population explosion
Early Warnings: Malthus
Thomas Malthus’ essay in 1798 Was Malthus Right?
– Neo-Malthusians Growing numbers Malthus could not imagine current human suffering
Difficult to apply Malthus's ideas below the global scale
Population Structure Population pyramid
– Broad-based vs. Narrow-based vs. rectangular
Demographic Cycles
Demography: the study of population – Spatial component = population geography
Natural increase– Crude birth rate (CBR)– Crude death rate (CDR)
The Birth Rate Fertility Rate Death Rate
Past Population Change
Limits on population growth:– Epidemics and plagues– Famines– Wars wiped out population gains– Nature
Past Population Change
The Second Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution– Europe during the eighteenth century– Europe during the nineteenth century– Increasing population brought about emigration– European colonization
Demographic Change
The three demographic variables:1. Births
2. Deaths
3. Migration (immigration and emigration)
Demographic TransitionFour stages:
1) High stationary stage; 2) Early expanding stage; 3) Late expanding stage;4) Low stationary stage
Demographic transition is represented by stages 2 and 3, during which high birth and death rates decline.
Demographic Change
Developing countries– Less advantages– Does everyone go through all four stages?– Some countries may have subsiding population growth
without economic growth– Stationary population level (SPL)
POLICY RESPONSES TO DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
Role of the United Nations
Population conferences– Held every ten years– First held in 1974 in Bucharest– Second conference in 1984 in Mexico City– The 1994 Cairo conference– 2004 conference
National Population Policies
Three groups of population policies– Expansion population policies– Eugenic population policies– Restrictive population policies
Limitations of policies? Contradictions?
Three Case Studies
Japan– Expansion eras = several children encouraged– Growing urban centers reduced birth rate = stabilized– Post-World War II– Eugenic Protection Act, 1948– Abortions = decreased birth rate– 1947 birth rate > 34 per 1000; 1957 = 18 per 1000– Governmental Action, 1991
Three Case Studies
India– Will be the world's most populous country soon– Population > 1 billion– A culturally complex country– Population planning
1950s, limited funds 1960s, more money A national program was instituted Used advertising and persuasion Some areas are progressing
Three Case Studies
China– Up to 1980s– In 1979 the government launched a policy inducing
couples to have only one child Penalties and hardships of the one-child policy
– 1984 rural relaxation– Results of party-imposed system breakdown– 2000 growth rate < 1%– One-child policy has had a major social impact in a
society where sons carry on the family name– Zero population growth policy– Emphasizes population dilemma depth
Policies Targeting Migration
Policies Targeting Migration
Control of immigration—legal and illegal—a hot issue around the world– U.S. actions?
California demands federal help to provide services for hundreds of thousand of illegal immigrants
Cuban refugees Haitians were prevented from entering Florida Arizona?? What are the issues?
– Restricting migration is nothing new
Legal Restrictions
United States:– Oriental Exclusion Acts (1882
1907)– Restrictive legislation for
Europeans, 1921– National Origins Law took
effect in 1929– Modified after 1940– Refugees– Quota System: abolished in
1965
Australia:– 1901 Immigration
Restriction Act
Other countries:– South Africa– New Zealand– Brazil– South America in
general
Resource
Video: Rosling-3rdWorldMyth– A .zip file from the wonderful site:
http://www.ted.org
Discussion
How can we effectively manage population growth? How can we effectively manage immigration (legal
and illegal)? Any ideas for migrant workers?