Shawn Rossi – NWS Hastings, NE Ray Wolf – NWS Quad Cities, IA
Barb Mayes Boustead – NWS Warning Decision Training Division, Norman, OK
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
Providing Long Range Outlook Summaries to the Climate Community
for Decision Support Services
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
Central Region Climate Services Program
Ray Wolf (DVN)
Timothy Kearns (ABR)
Jeff Boyne (ARX)
Shawn Rossi (GID)
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
The Long Range Climate Outlooks
History
• Started over 10 years ago to
provide long range climate outlooks to the Central Region climate community – and mainly intended for internal use.
• Consisted of a brief (10-12 page) PowerPoint presentation that was emailed to CR Climate focal points and management staff to highlight the latest climate forecast from the CPC
• Had minor tweaks over the years, but the format generally has stayed the same since its inception.
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Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
November 2015 Outlook
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
Wanted outlooks to have: • Clear and concise
messaging
• Share-ability: with both our internal (NWS) and external (non-NWS) partners
• A broader reach through the use of social media
After many years without a significant refresh, an update was needed
• More than just a summary of CPC wording
• Useful resources for internal and external customers
• Readability and brevity
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
So where did we start?
• We identified other products we liked
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
But what to include? • Legacy climate
outlooks included around 10 different graphics, a summary page and an additional resources page
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
The ideas started flowing… • Who is the audience?
• Wanted to keep it a regional product with hands on opportunities for climate focal points to participate.
• Wanted a “bottom line up front” approach • Wanted bulleted messaging • Wanted the outlook to stay “fresh” • Wanted to provide social media templates for
repurposing • Wanted it to be short. 2 pages? 4 pages? • Wanted it to be looked at and used.
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
Several drafts were made…
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
January 18, 2018: The February – April Outlook was issued
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
And for the 1st time, the outlook included 3 social media templates:
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
So what kind of feedback did we see? (Month 1)
• Limited feedback overall • Only 1 person used the embedded link
to provide feedback • A handful of comments were submitted
directly to the monthly author
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
Some of the feedback we received: Month 1
• Overall: Generally positive feedback on the new format • “Much easier to digest”
• Some of the constructive feedback: • Desire for an “Important Messages” section
near top • Suggestion to re-arrange the format to align
CPC outlooks in one column in order to appeal to our partners and increase distribution
• Too much text still • Text too repetitive
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
The March – May 2018 Outlook was issued February 15, 2018:
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
Feedback from Month 2:
• Extremely limited • Request for feedback was not included this
month • Did receive feedback on google form – “like
new layout, even if it is a bit busy” • Did have a report of trouble loading some
of graphics reported by author • What about Social Media Feedback?
• Some local successes here!
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
Social Media Success? Month 2:
• About 10,000 people reached
• Over 9% engagement
• Several Comments – All benign - from Smiley faces to people wishing they lived in a warmer portion of the graphic.
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
The April – June 2018 Outlook: Month 3
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
Additional Comments: Months 3-5
• “It’s very nice to see the pertinent information on 2 slides rather than 20” – NOAA user
• “Thank you. This is good material!” – State Climatologist
• “I like the format. Great job!” – another state climatologist
• “Absolutely fantastic content within these outlooks!! Quick and east to glean impactful talking points to guide our messaging. Thanks for developing these!” – NOAA user
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
Important to understand users:
• There will be some negativity because users want more.
• BUT, the information we have to share is useful to many!
Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop - 2018
Final thoughts:
• Strong desire from our users to provide long range climate outlooks • Should we be blasting these out to our partners via
email? Do we need to establish specific climate email lists of our users?
• How can we get more offices involved? How to encourage offices to post to social media?
• Can we provide more detail? • Yes? No? Maybe? We can always point out value to
the forecast and what those impacts may be locally.