SAITHE AND HAKE SPATIAL INTERACTIONSIN THE NORTH SEA
ICES/NAFO Symposium
Xochitl Cormon1,2,C. Loots1, K. Rabhi1, M. Rouquette1, S. Vaz1, Y. Vermard1 and
P. Marchal1
1IFREMER Boulogne-sur-MerFishery Science Departement
2Université Lille 1Sciences and Technology
15-18 October 2013, Saint Andrews, NB, Canada
Introduction Context
The North Sea:
An European areaAn ecosytem changing..
Environmentalfactors1
Human activity
with consequences..on speciesdistribution2
and speciesinteractions3
1ICES, 2008
2Perry et al., 20053Klein et al., 2008
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 1 / 8
Introduction Context
The North Sea:
An European areaAn ecosytem changing..
Environmentalfactors1
Human activity
with consequences..on speciesdistribution2
and speciesinteractions3
1ICES, 20082Perry et al., 20053Klein et al., 2008
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 1 / 8
Introduction Context
The North Sea:
An European areaAn ecosytem changing..
Environmentalfactors1
Human activity
with consequences..on speciesdistribution2
and speciesinteractions3
1ICES, 20082Perry et al., 20053Klein et al., 2008
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 1 / 8
Introduction Species presentation
Two species of interest:
Which species?
Saithe, Pollachius virens Hake, Merluccius merluccius
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 2 / 8
Introduction Species presentation
Two species of interest:
Which species?
Saithe, Pollachius virens Hake, Merluccius merluccius
Historical trends of SSB4
2010
600
2000199019801970
500
400
300
200
100
0
SSBS_1000t
Saithe(IIIa, IV and VI)Hake(IIIa, IV, VI, VII and VIIIa,b,d)
4ICES, 2013X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 2 / 8
Introduction Species presentation
Two species of interest:
Which species?
Saithe, Pollachius virens Hake, Merluccius merluccius
Presence-absence ratio per statistical rectangles of the area of interest over years(Data from DATRAS, 1991-2012, Q1)
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
01
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Saithe
0 00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Hake
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 2 / 8
Materials and methods Species presence and overlap
Understand their spatial distribution and overlap
1 Data from DATRAS, 1991-2012, Q12 Presence-absence GLM (binomial, logit)
Response: saithe, hake or overlapDescriptors:
ENV: temperature, bathymetry and sediment type;ORG: saithe, hake, cod groups (G. morhua), Norway pout (T.
esmarkii), herring groups (C. harengus) and blue whiting(M. poutassou) presence-absence4,5;
Selection based on parsimony and sensitivity (true positive rate)calculated on a separate predictive dataset
3 Mapping4 R software
4Bergstad, 19915Dubuit, 1991
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 3 / 8
Materials and methods Species presence and overlap
Understand their spatial distribution and overlap
1 Data from DATRAS, 1991-2012, Q12 Presence-absence GLM (binomial, logit)
Response: saithe, hake or overlap
Descriptors:ENV: temperature, bathymetry and sediment type;ORG: saithe, hake, cod groups (G. morhua), Norway pout (T.
esmarkii), herring groups (C. harengus) and blue whiting(M. poutassou) presence-absence4,5;
Selection based on parsimony and sensitivity (true positive rate)calculated on a separate predictive dataset
3 Mapping4 R software
4Bergstad, 19915Dubuit, 1991
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 3 / 8
Materials and methods Species presence and overlap
Understand their spatial distribution and overlap
1 Data from DATRAS, 1991-2012, Q12 Presence-absence GLM (binomial, logit)
Response: saithe, hake or overlapDescriptors:
ENV: temperature, bathymetry and sediment type;ORG: saithe, hake, cod groups (G. morhua), Norway pout (T.
esmarkii), herring groups (C. harengus) and blue whiting(M. poutassou) presence-absence4,5;
Selection based on parsimony and sensitivity (true positive rate)calculated on a separate predictive dataset
3 Mapping4 R software
4Bergstad, 19915Dubuit, 1991
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 3 / 8
Materials and methods Species presence and overlap
Understand their spatial distribution and overlap
1 Data from DATRAS, 1991-2012, Q12 Presence-absence GLM (binomial, logit)
Response: saithe, hake or overlapDescriptors:
ENV: temperature, bathymetry and sediment type;ORG: saithe, hake, cod groups (G. morhua), Norway pout (T.
esmarkii), herring groups (C. harengus) and blue whiting(M. poutassou) presence-absence4,5;
Selection based on parsimony and sensitivity (true positive rate)calculated on a separate predictive dataset
3 Mapping4 R software
4Bergstad, 19915Dubuit, 1991
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 3 / 8
Materials and methods Species presence and overlap
Understand their spatial distribution and overlap
1 Data from DATRAS, 1991-2012, Q12 Presence-absence GLM (binomial, logit)
Response: saithe, hake or overlapDescriptors:
ENV: temperature, bathymetry and sediment type;ORG: saithe, hake, cod groups (G. morhua), Norway pout (T.
esmarkii), herring groups (C. harengus) and blue whiting(M. poutassou) presence-absence4,5;
Selection based on parsimony and sensitivity (true positive rate)calculated on a separate predictive dataset
3 Mapping
4 R software
4Bergstad, 19915Dubuit, 1991
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 3 / 8
Materials and methods Species presence and overlap
Understand their spatial distribution and overlap
1 Data from DATRAS, 1991-2012, Q12 Presence-absence GLM (binomial, logit)
Response: saithe, hake or overlapDescriptors:
ENV: temperature, bathymetry and sediment type;ORG: saithe, hake, cod groups (G. morhua), Norway pout (T.
esmarkii), herring groups (C. harengus) and blue whiting(M. poutassou) presence-absence4,5;
Selection based on parsimony and sensitivity (true positive rate)calculated on a separate predictive dataset
3 Mapping4 R software
4Bergstad, 19915Dubuit, 1991
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 3 / 8
Materials and methods Species presence and overlap
Understand their spatial distribution and overlap
1 Data from DATRAS, 1991-2012, Q12 Presence-absence GLM (binomial, logit)
Response: saithe, hake or overlapDescriptors:
ENV: temperature, bathymetry and sediment type;ORG: saithe, hake, cod groups (G. morhua), Norway pout (T.
esmarkii), herring groups (C. harengus) and blue whiting(M. poutassou) presence-absence4,5;
Selection based on parsimony and sensitivity (true positive rate)calculated on a separate predictive dataset
3 Mapping4 R software
4Bergstad, 19915Dubuit, 1991
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 3 / 8
Results and discussion Models fit
Models fit
Some of the relevant descriptors effectsSaithe Hake Overlap S H O S H O
adjR2 0.45 0.38 0.29
NS NA NATEMP SAITHE NORWAY POUT
NA NADEPTH HAKE HERRING juv
Other descriptorsSediment type is never significant except for fine sand for all models (´);Cod is significant for saithe and overlap models (`) while adults herring is only forhake and overlap ones (`), blue whiting is only significant for hake (`).
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 4 / 8
Results and discussion Maps from models output
Saithe presence probability evolution since 1991
Probable habitat at first quarter(1991-1996)
0 5 10
5254
5658
60
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Changes in presence probabilityover the last 15 years
0 5 10
5254
5658
60
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 5 / 8
Results and discussion Maps from models output
Hake presence probability evolution since 1991
Probable habitat at first quarter(1991-1996)
0 5 10
5254
5658
60
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Changes in presence probabilityover the last 15 years
0 5 10
5254
5658
60
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 6 / 8
Results and discussion Maps from models output
Overlap evolution since 1991
Probable overlap at first quarter(1991-1996)
0 5 10
5254
5658
60
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Changes in overlap probabilityover the last 15 years
0 5 10
5254
5658
60
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 7 / 8
Outlooks
Outlooks
1 Input efficient spatial autocorrelation consideration (SAC)
2 Stomach content analysis study (in progress)
3 Combination of modeling and experimental results
4 Enter in a predictive mode
5 Application to management in multispecific and ecosystemic approachcontext
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 8 / 8
Outlooks
Outlooks
1 Input efficient spatial autocorrelation consideration (SAC)
2 Stomach content analysis study (in progress)
3 Combination of modeling and experimental results
4 Enter in a predictive mode
5 Application to management in multispecific and ecosystemic approachcontext
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 8 / 8
Outlooks
Outlooks
1 Input efficient spatial autocorrelation consideration (SAC)
2 Stomach content analysis study (in progress)
3 Combination of modeling and experimental results
4 Enter in a predictive mode
5 Application to management in multispecific and ecosystemic approachcontext
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 8 / 8
Outlooks
Outlooks
1 Input efficient spatial autocorrelation consideration (SAC)
2 Stomach content analysis study (in progress)
3 Combination of modeling and experimental results
4 Enter in a predictive mode
5 Application to management in multispecific and ecosystemic approachcontext
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 8 / 8
Outlooks
Outlooks
1 Input efficient spatial autocorrelation consideration (SAC)
2 Stomach content analysis study (in progress)
3 Combination of modeling and experimental results
4 Enter in a predictive mode
5 Application to management in multispecific and ecosystemic approachcontext
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 8 / 8
The End
The End...
Thank you for your attention.Any question?
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 8 / 8
References
References
Bergstad, O. A. (1991). "Distribution and Trophic Ecology of Some Gadoid Fish of theNorwegian Deep .1. Accounts of Individual-Species." Sarsia 75(4): 269-313.Borcard, D., Gillet, F. and P. Legendre (2011)."Eigenvector-Based Spatial variables and SpatialModelling." Numerical Ecology with R: 243-279. Springer, UseR!Dubuit, M. H. (1991). "Food and feeding of saithe (Pollachius virens) off Scotland." FisheriesResearch 12(4): 307-323.ICES (2013). "Saithe in Subareas IV, VI and Division IIIa." Report of the Working Group on theAssessment of Demersal Stocks in the North Sea and Skagerrak (WGNSSK): ICESCM/ACOM:13 : 565-609.ICES (2013). "Hake in Division IIIa, Subareas IV, VI and VII and Divisions VIIIa,b,d (Northernstock)" Report of the Working Group on the Assessment of Southern Shelf Stocks of Hake,Monk and Megrim (WGHMM): ICES CM/ACOM:11 : 34-73.ICES Database of Trawl Surveys (2013). "ICES Database of Trawl Surveys (DATRAS)"Extraction JUNE 2013 of International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS). ICES, Copenhagen”Klein, D. R., H. H. Bruun, et al. (2008). "Climate change influences on speciesinterrelationships and distributions in high-Arctic Greenland." Advances in Ecological Research,Vol 40 40: 81-100.Perry, A. L., P. J. Low, et al. (2005). "Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes."Science 308(5730): 1912-1915.
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 8 / 8
Annex Non-spatial or spatial?
Comparison of non-spatial and spatial models
SaitheModel type NbTot NbORG NbENV TPR Dev ě 1% SACENV+ORG 11 6 5 0.84 4 5*** 0.25ENV+ORG+MEM 25 3 3 0.88 7 4*** 0.15
HakeModel type NbTot NbORG NbENV TPR Dev ě 1% SACENV+ORG 13 5 8 0.88 6 9*** 0.35ENV+ORG+MEM 21 1 5 0.90 10 8*** 0.25
OverlapModel type NbTot NbORG NbENV TPR Dev ě 1% SACENV+ORG 10 4 6 0.89 8 5*** 0.30ENV+ORG+MEM 14 0 4 0.93 8 4*** 0.20
Models without SAC consideration are chosen
X. CORMON Saithe and hake spatial interactions October 2013 8 / 8