Scaling Up Energy Efficiency in India: Opportunities in the Electricity Sector
Dr. Jayant Sathaye, Dr. Amol Phadke and Ranjit BharvirkarEnergy Analysis Program
Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeley, CA
Presented at the Forum of Indian Regulators
25-26 September 2008
Work supported by the US Departments of State and Energy, and the ClimateWorks Foundation
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
• Managed by the University of California for the US Dept
of Energy
• Founded in 1931, about 4000 staff
• 12 Nobel Prizes – IPCC (2008) – Jayant Sathaye
• Berkeley India Joint Leadership on Energy and
Environment (BIJLEE) program starting in October 2008
• Utility programs – — Distribution loss reduction
— Demand-side management programs
— Load research and generation planning
—Transmission reliability
— Renewable energy
Motivation
Electricity shortage accompanied by blackouts and load
shedding is common across India
In Maharashtra, electricity deficit reached 4800 MW in 2008
or more than 25% of available capacity
Shedule (MW)
Net Exch. (MW)
-55 -31 10413 1076 11456 1942 13431 48.72-55 -27 9928 1055 11562 1811 12794 48.7839 67 10032 1061 12044 1708 12801 48.7886 118 9897 1420 12374 1660 12977 48.89
110 144 9634 1822 12415 1635 13091 48.9463 94 9803 1759 12854 1684 13246 48.95-9 16 9480 2564 13513 1761 13805 49.14-9 11 8887 3487 13781 1769 14143 49.269 8 8769 3646 14006 1770 14185 49.09
-9 9 9205 3649 13655 1768 14622 49.14-9 9 9794 3719 12384 1772 15285 49.27-9 8 9745 4036 12783 1799 15580 49.12-9 13 9471 4535 13183 1790 15796 49.19
FREQ. (HZs)
TPCL MSEDCL Catered Demand
(MW)
Load Shed. (MW)
MSEDCL Demand
(MW)
TPCL+REL
Demand (MW)
State Demand (MW)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
MW
Hour
Maharashtra State April 28th, 2008
Electricity Shortage
Demand Met
S
Key Issues Electricity shortage
Affects industrial production quantity and quality,
Lower production and sales lead to reduced sales tax
payment
Government loses sales tax revenue
LBNL estimates sales tax loss of Rs. 9 /kWh not served
Shortage met partially by use of inefficient diesel and gasoline
micro generators with high CO2 emissions
Savings potential Energy savings potential of about 6800 GWh/year
CO2 savings potential of 3-5 Mt CO2/year
Project Concept: Improve efficiency of electricity use
Marginal cost of procuring new supply: 8-10 Rs./kWh
Marginal cost of demand reduction: 0.9 - 5 Rs./kWh demand or 0.6 – 3.2 Rs./kWh supplyAssuming 28% supply loss
LBNL Maharashtra study found that energy efficiency is the least
expensive and quickest option to reduce shortage
Preliminary Estimate of the Saving Potential (MU) in 3 years (Residential)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600Cumulative Saving Potential in 3 years MU FY2008 to FY2011
Rs/
kWh
CCE Rs/kWh Avoided PP Rs/kWh
Refrigrtr(N)
AC(N) CFL(N)CFL(R)
NG WH(N)
T5(N)
LPG WH(N)
T5(R)
AC(R)
SolarWH(N+R
Avoided PP Cost
CCE
`Average Tariff
Utility Benefit
Consumer Benefit
Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Delhi
• Jiangsu Province had saved 300 MW at the end of 2007
• Jiangsu targeting to save 462 MW or $197 million USD in 2 years, at a cost of Rs. 2.5/kWh
•Source: State Grid Corporation DSM Instruction Center.•http://www.efchina.org/FProgram.do?act=list&type=Programs&subType=4&id=0&pageno=3
Efficiency Programs Being Implemented Worldwide – China (Jiangsu Province), US, Zambia, Thailand ….
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
United States
California
Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $1975 2005 % change
US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94%Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79%
2005 Differences = 5,300kWh/yr = $165/capita
Efficiency Programs Being Implemented Worldwide – US (California)
Success story: DSM & Energy Efficiency in California
Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) Energy Efficiency Portfolio Goals Are Going Up
PG&E Cumulative Peak Savings (MW) Goals *
161323
503708
9361168
13881624
18782156
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
• PG&E and Maharashtra generation capacity is similar ~ 20-25 GW
• PG&E’s energy efficiency goals are increasing significantly
• California expects to meet approximately half of demand growth with energy efficiency through 2013
• PG&E 2006-08 energy efficiency budget of ~$1 billion
* From CPUC Decision 04-09-060
* From CPUC Decision 04-09-060
PG&E Annual Electricity Saving (GWH) Goals *
744 744829
9441053 1067 1015
10861173
1277
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Demand-Side Management: California Approach
California Regulatory Commissions:
1. Public Utilities Commission and 2. Energy Commission
California Utility Companies, e.g. Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) implement DSM programs
Suppliers of efficient equipment
Critical Feature: Electricity Savings cannot be metered directly; Important to monitor and verify meter readings before and after efficient equipment is installed
Electricity Consumers
Commission orders utility companies to pursue DSM programsand allows cost recovery Provides financial and other incentives to
suppliers and/or consumers
Project: India Load Research and DSM Programs
Initiated in the state of Maharashtra
Maharashtra has the largest capacity in India – about 19,000 MW
All four major utility companies are participants in the project
Maharashtra State Electricity Board (MSEB) – unbundled into three companies
BEST (Muni)
Tata Power Company (Private)
Reliance Energy (Private)
Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission (MERC) is the primary
counterpart
Utility companies have limited capacity for generation planning and load
research
No data collection on load components and forecasting
04/20/23 Dr. Jayant Sathaye14
Memorandum of Understanding (MOU): Sharing what works
Maharashtra-California Memorandum of Understanding
(MOU)
• MOU Parties—Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission
• Chairman Dr. Pramod Deo
—California Energy Commission• Commissioner Dr. Art Rosenfeld
—California Public Utilities Commission• Commissioner Dian Grueneich
—Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory• Director Dr. Steve Chu
• Maharashtra MOU signed in December 2007• MOU ready for signature with DERC
Focus Areas for Capacity Building:Regulatory and Utility Roles
• Regulatory practices and policies for promoting clean
energy options to provide appropriate incentives to
utilities
• Load research
• DSM implementation models
— Utility implemented programs
— Energy service companies
• Methodologies for setting baselines and monitoring
and verification of savings
Please check this website for
LBNL India and related publications
http://ies.lbl.gov
Thank you
Jayant Sathaye
Amol Phadke and Ranjit Bharvirkar