Scaling Up Energy Efficiency in India: Opportunities in the Electricity Sector

Dr. Jayant Sathaye, Dr. Amol Phadke and Ranjit BharvirkarEnergy Analysis Program

Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeley, CA

Presented at the Forum of Indian Regulators

25-26 September 2008

Work supported by the US Departments of State and Energy, and the ClimateWorks Foundation

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

• Managed by the University of California for the US Dept

of Energy

• Founded in 1931, about 4000 staff

• 12 Nobel Prizes – IPCC (2008) – Jayant Sathaye

• Berkeley India Joint Leadership on Energy and

Environment (BIJLEE) program starting in October 2008

• Utility programs – — Distribution loss reduction

— Demand-side management programs

— Load research and generation planning

—Transmission reliability

— Renewable energy

Motivation

Electricity shortage accompanied by blackouts and load

shedding is common across India

In Maharashtra, electricity deficit reached 4800 MW in 2008

or more than 25% of available capacity

Shedule (MW)

Net Exch. (MW)

-55 -31 10413 1076 11456 1942 13431 48.72-55 -27 9928 1055 11562 1811 12794 48.7839 67 10032 1061 12044 1708 12801 48.7886 118 9897 1420 12374 1660 12977 48.89

110 144 9634 1822 12415 1635 13091 48.9463 94 9803 1759 12854 1684 13246 48.95-9 16 9480 2564 13513 1761 13805 49.14-9 11 8887 3487 13781 1769 14143 49.269 8 8769 3646 14006 1770 14185 49.09

-9 9 9205 3649 13655 1768 14622 49.14-9 9 9794 3719 12384 1772 15285 49.27-9 8 9745 4036 12783 1799 15580 49.12-9 13 9471 4535 13183 1790 15796 49.19

FREQ. (HZs)

TPCL MSEDCL Catered Demand

(MW)

Load Shed. (MW)

MSEDCL Demand

(MW)

TPCL+REL

Demand (MW)

State Demand (MW)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

MW

Hour

Maharashtra State April 28th, 2008

Electricity Shortage

Demand Met

S

Key Issues Electricity shortage

Affects industrial production quantity and quality,

Lower production and sales lead to reduced sales tax

payment

Government loses sales tax revenue

LBNL estimates sales tax loss of Rs. 9 /kWh not served

Shortage met partially by use of inefficient diesel and gasoline

micro generators with high CO2 emissions

Savings potential Energy savings potential of about 6800 GWh/year

CO2 savings potential of 3-5 Mt CO2/year

Project Concept: Improve efficiency of electricity use

Marginal cost of procuring new supply: 8-10 Rs./kWh

Marginal cost of demand reduction: 0.9 - 5 Rs./kWh demand or 0.6 – 3.2 Rs./kWh supplyAssuming 28% supply loss

LBNL Maharashtra study found that energy efficiency is the least

expensive and quickest option to reduce shortage

Preliminary Estimate of the Saving Potential (MU) in 3 years (Residential)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600Cumulative Saving Potential in 3 years MU FY2008 to FY2011

Rs/

kWh

CCE Rs/kWh Avoided PP Rs/kWh

Refrigrtr(N)

AC(N) CFL(N)CFL(R)

NG WH(N)

T5(N)

LPG WH(N)

T5(R)

AC(R)

SolarWH(N+R

Avoided PP Cost

CCE

`Average Tariff

Utility Benefit

Consumer Benefit

Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Delhi

• Jiangsu Province had saved 300 MW at the end of 2007

• Jiangsu targeting to save 462 MW or $197 million USD in 2 years, at a cost of Rs. 2.5/kWh

•Source: State Grid Corporation DSM Instruction Center.•http://www.efchina.org/FProgram.do?act=list&type=Programs&subType=4&id=0&pageno=3

Efficiency Programs Being Implemented Worldwide – China (Jiangsu Province), US, Zambia, Thailand ….

Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

United States

California

Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $1975 2005 % change

US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94%Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79%

2005 Differences = 5,300kWh/yr = $165/capita

Efficiency Programs Being Implemented Worldwide – US (California)

Success story: DSM & Energy Efficiency in California

Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) Energy Efficiency Portfolio Goals Are Going Up

PG&E Cumulative Peak Savings (MW) Goals *

161323

503708

9361168

13881624

18782156

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

• PG&E and Maharashtra generation capacity is similar ~ 20-25 GW

• PG&E’s energy efficiency goals are increasing significantly

• California expects to meet approximately half of demand growth with energy efficiency through 2013

• PG&E 2006-08 energy efficiency budget of ~$1 billion

* From CPUC Decision 04-09-060

* From CPUC Decision 04-09-060

PG&E Annual Electricity Saving (GWH) Goals *

744 744829

9441053 1067 1015

10861173

1277

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Demand-Side Management: California Approach

California Regulatory Commissions:

1. Public Utilities Commission and 2. Energy Commission

California Utility Companies, e.g. Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) implement DSM programs

Suppliers of efficient equipment

Critical Feature: Electricity Savings cannot be metered directly; Important to monitor and verify meter readings before and after efficient equipment is installed

Electricity Consumers

Commission orders utility companies to pursue DSM programsand allows cost recovery Provides financial and other incentives to

suppliers and/or consumers

Project: India Load Research and DSM Programs

Initiated in the state of Maharashtra

Maharashtra has the largest capacity in India – about 19,000 MW

All four major utility companies are participants in the project

Maharashtra State Electricity Board (MSEB) – unbundled into three companies

BEST (Muni)

Tata Power Company (Private)

Reliance Energy (Private)

Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission (MERC) is the primary

counterpart

Utility companies have limited capacity for generation planning and load

research

No data collection on load components and forecasting

04/20/23 Dr. Jayant Sathaye14

Memorandum of Understanding (MOU): Sharing what works

Maharashtra-California Memorandum of Understanding

(MOU)

• MOU Parties—Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission

• Chairman Dr. Pramod Deo

—California Energy Commission• Commissioner Dr. Art Rosenfeld

—California Public Utilities Commission• Commissioner Dian Grueneich

—Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory• Director Dr. Steve Chu

• Maharashtra MOU signed in December 2007• MOU ready for signature with DERC

Focus Areas for Capacity Building:Regulatory and Utility Roles

• Regulatory practices and policies for promoting clean

energy options to provide appropriate incentives to

utilities

• Load research

• DSM implementation models

— Utility implemented programs

— Energy service companies

• Methodologies for setting baselines and monitoring

and verification of savings

Please check this website for

LBNL India and related publications

http://ies.lbl.gov

Thank you

Jayant Sathaye

Amol Phadke and Ranjit Bharvirkar